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Identifying Multibaggers
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: The Equity Desk - Report Card Match 2007
    Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 1:15am

Hello,

 

March 2007 was another of those high flying quarters with extraordinary performance from most of the stocks members discuss on this forum. Particularly piquant was the performance of the The Equity Desk XI which outperformed the Indian cricket XI hands down. So while Dravid failed  Bharti  Airtel  flourished. For a discussion on our Cricket XI you would need to visit this link.

 

The real test would start from this quarter. Rising interest rates will create panic in the markets but over the past few years I have learnt that we as investors have almost little chance to fight rising interest rates by timing the markets. I am personally invested 100% because taking that interest rate call is difficult.

 
So what is the solution? The solution is not to be invested in sectors that are interest rate sensitive. Now we can argue whether HDFC Bank is ineterst rate sensitive or not but for a bank that has been a 25 bagger and has handled quite a few interest rate cycles we could take any weakness in such companies as opportunities.

 

The Cricket XI continues to do extraordinarily well except for two stocks which should recover well with time.

Company    Recm  Recm     Curr Price  Gain(Loss)
   Date   Price  Percentage
TV 18 20-Jul-06 203 609 200.00
IndiaBulls  13-Nov-06 142 417 193.66
Educomp  11-Aug-06 382 949 148.43
GBN 9-Jan-07 250 535 114.00
Everest Kanto 8-Sep-06 400 823 105.75
Bharti  Airtel  24-Aug-06 407 769 88.94
ICICI Bank 20-Jul-06 467 853 82.66
ENIL 23-Jul-06 186 330 77.42
Pantaloon Retail 26-Jul-06 225 392 74.22
Crisil 2-Aug-06 1550 2665 71.94
Mc Dowell 18-Jul-06 490 832 69.80
Jain Irrigation 13-Aug-06 249 420 68.67
Yes Bank 1-Sep-06 89 140 57.30
Blue Star 6-Oct-06 137 210 53.28
Havells 30-Aug-06 285 436 52.98
Financial Technologies   26-Aug-06 1252 1829 46.09
Network18 20-Jul-06 238 343 44.12
Maharashtra Seamless 22-Aug-06 365 510 39.73
HDFC Bank 20-Jul-06 697 950 36.30
Geodesic 17-Oct-06 180 233 29.44
Aditya Birla Nuvo  10-Sep-06 836 1070 27.99
L&T 6-Sep-06 1278 1620 26.76
Infosys 19-Jul-06 1612 2018 25.19
Indian Hotels 7-Aug-06 116 145 25.00
Morgan Stanley 19-Aug-06 34.7 43 23.92
HDFC, 5-Aug-06 1245 1525 22.49
Zee News 23-Jan-07 32 39 21.88
Gitanjali Gems 16-Aug-06 170 200 17.65
Sun Pharmaceuticals 25-Sep-06 930 1058 13.76
Nitco Tiles 28-Aug-06 169 192 13.61
Bharti Shipyard 17-Sep-06 337 348 3.26
Amarraja Batteries 15-Aug-06 332 340 2.41
Tata Investments 8-Aug-06 337 340 0.89
Lloyd Electric 9-Aug-06 138 138 0.00
Rayban Sun Optics 6-Aug-06 87 86 -1.15
Adlabs 2-Jan-07 430 413 -3.95
Trent 2-Aug-06 715 683 -4.48
Shanti Gears 20-Sep-06 64 61 -4.69
Monsanto 21-Sep-06 1488 1370 -7.93
Moser Baer 15-Jan-07 330 299 -9.39
Kohinoor Foods 30-Aug-06 78 69 -11.54
Inox Leisure 2-Aug-06 125 110 -12.00
Zicom ELectronics 16-Aug-06 185 161 -12.97
Vimta Laboratories 3-Sep-06 159 136 -14.47
Indraprastha Gas 1-Sep-06 117 99 -15.38
Suzlon Energy 28-Aug-06 1213 1001 -17.48
Prithvi Information 2-Sep-06 327 266 -18.65
WWIL 8-Feb-07 120 89 -25.83
1-Oct-06 255 176 -30.98
Rain Commodities 10-Aug-06 114 Booked profits at Rs 170
Nilkamal Plastics 11-Aug-06 173 Booked losses at Rs 150
 
 
Stocks in Red are part of the The Equity Desk XI

 

The cost of purchase in TV 18 and Network18   has been divided on the basis of the shares made available to shareholders on demerger. IndiaBulls  has been allocated an equal cost since the demerger ratio was 1:1.

 

Nilkamal Plastics was a bad investment decision and is hence being removed whereas for Rain Commodities a cement cyclical  we had decided to exit at around Rs 175 levels.

 

The coming quarter will test the character of the investor more then his skills and it is the former which is in short supply within us. For this we remain obliged to Kulmanji for helping us understand the master by making continuous posts to the Warren Buffet School of Investing.

 
It is another thing not to sell in panic but entirely extraordinary not to panic and after reading those posts each day in the morning I think I have graduated from the earlier level (of not selling in panic) to the higher level of not panicking- thanks again to Kulmanji.

 

Regards,

 

Basant



Edited by basant - 01/Jul/2007 at 7:57pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 7:37am
It is another thing not to sell in panic but entirely extraordinary not to panic
-----------------
Very relevant quotation. It is time to separate boys from men. Basant jee, congratulations for excellent q4 results. We are first to publish q4 and y'06-'07 results. Clap Loss and gains are part of game but journey is quite important for serious investors. I thank you many times to make this journey smooth, enjoyable and comfortable for all of us. Many times, TED has helped me to make or not-to-make certain decisions.
Wish many more fruitful years, quarters to all of TEDs. Thumbs%20Up


Edited by vipul - 01/Apr/2007 at 7:39am
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote Mr. V Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 7:59am
Congratulations to all the members of TED.
More than the actual performance of the portfolio which no doubt is important, I feel the real gain of TED members is the learning. I have been part of this forum for 1 month and already I have learned and enjoyed so much. Like Vipul said its the journey that is important.
I can't wait for the annual reports to come out followed by the analysis by the TED members.

Once again kudos to everyone.
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 8:17am

I must confess that TED has helped me immensly to develop kind of 'emotional detachment'. Of course it (my approach) needs continuous improvement & it is a long way to go.

I'm fortunate enough to have found this wonderful forum exactly 6 months ago. Sometimes I wonder had it not been for TED, how I would have reacted in Dec'06 or Feb'07 or even now. As said earlier I've stopped losing money.
 
I may not be owning major stocks from TED-XI or I might have underperformed indices; but does it really matter? TED has helped me in becoming a better human being emotionally. And in the process my friends' circle of competence has widened!
 
 
 
 
Life can only be understood backwardsóbut it must be lived forwards
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Quote Mr. V Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 8:54am
"And in the process my friends' circle of competence has widened!"
----------------------------------------------------------------

Totally True...
I also realise that I have become a groupie....good growth

Edited by Mr. V - 01/Apr/2007 at 8:54am
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 9:18am
i have met some truly amazing poeple here without physically meeting them!
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote vip1 Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 10:08am
The coming quarter will test the character of the investor more then his skills and it is the former which is in short supply within us.
The greatest part of being at TED is the CONVICTION one has gained , the storms  easily wither away.
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 10:21am
Basantji, PVR has not been included in the list...
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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