You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. - Abraham Lincoln.
When the UPA was elected to power the stock market saluted it with a 20% circuit up with a firm belief that this Govt. will put India on a strong growth path through a spate of developmental activities led by second generation reforms. In retrospect the collective wisdom of the market as defined by stock indices was a classic case of fooling all the people some of the time. As time progressed all that the markets saw from the Govt. was mere hope and talk with very little action bringing our belief for a sustained high single digit growth to a virtual standstill. �All talk and no work has made Manmohan a dull Prime Minister�
While all this happened the stock market bulls quickly set themselves up for a long haul. They saw the ticker race towards the earlier top of 21,000 and the first rule for a market participant is that anyone in this market can lie but not the ticker. So they piled up with gusto buying the old beaten down names, stocks that hadn�t moved and waited for the ones that made new highs to collapse �a classic case of what happens in the every market cycle. After two and a half years all that remains of those stocks are memories - both bitter and forgettable.
As the markets kept postponing its expectations and pre-poning the celebration the Govt. kept disappointing through inaction with complete disregard to the irreparable damage that they have inadvertently done to this nation and its economy. These include mindlessly raising interest rates to show en effort towards curbing inflation whereas the source of the problem was elsewhere, trying to be a green man by cutting down mining and developmental work to a point where the Power companies suffer from acute shortage of coal and the lending agencies from risks of non-payments, slowdown in infrastructure activities and finally statement by the RBI of its inability to defend the rupee have taken a toll on our growth momentum as we run the risk of sub 7% growth for the next two years.
A Govt. that is made up of Lawyers at the top seems to do just one thing -argue and postpone. Meanwhile our Prime Minister seems to follow a policy of avoid, delay and defer. Instead of clamouring for FDI in retail with limited support the PM should focus onthe basics. POSCO�s US$ 10Bn project lies stuck between the files, several mining projects have been stopped because the Govt. has suddenly turned green? FDI in retail is a five year plan. How can Wal Mart improve delivery from farm to fork in the immediate future? We did not have FDI in retail when we clocked 9% growth in GDP? The proposed Food security Bill is another of those legislations being introduced with an eye on vote bank politics. It will encourage people to sit back at home and work for three days a week instead of five. This is a colossal waste of public money and is against the basic roots of capitalism. I guess 2G was better because it was a one time expense but this one will continue for years because once done no party can reverse the process once it is done.
The only hope for an investor is that India will survive inspite of the Govt. and its policies and these times could be one of the better ones to invest in but only for someone who has a long term view but don�t ask me how long is the long term? How-ever there are a lot of landmines in the market with a few more live explosives in them so it is better to walk the concrete path (strong names) rather then take the shortcuts (beaten down stocks) even though it would mean taking a little more time in reaching to our destination.
Your views on Food Security Bill is spot on. This, like any other subsidy, will be a huge debt burden that we will leave for our future generations, because no government will be bold enough to tackle the issue for fear of alienating the common man. And like all other subsidies, most of the money will be actually used to line the politicians' pockets!!
Despite all these Gloom Doom in equity market & Govt statistics , there is no sign of any recession on street like 2008. May be it is coming.
In spite of the socalled aam aadmi slant of the UPA, no one seems to be happy, neither the aam aadmi nor industrialists. This government is complacent about everything. As Basantji has already said, this government is led by lawyers. As the old saying goes, "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him to fish and you feed him for a lifetime." No one in the government seems to know this. As the results in Tamil Nadu show, all the freebies promised by the DMK government could not save them from the anger of the people. It seems that the government has taken leave of its senses judging from its arrogant response to black money, the Anna Hazare movement etc.
The only problem is we'll have to wait till 2014 for the govt. to change. I hope it changes then. But still its not a guarantee that the new govt. will do much
Beautifully put across Basantji
A Govt. that is made up of Lawyers at the top seems to do just one thing -argue and postpone. [/QUOTE]
govt distributing free money - inflation - high interest rates - unsustainable industry - decreasing revenue for govt - need money for subsidies - increase interest rates even more ... and climax - need to give even more subsidies. As if the cycle is unknown, without creating value and resource how printing or distributing money will help? May be UID could help for leakages; even that has already been discredited by home ministry with everyday raising serious questions on it.
Another disaster in making in form of clearing of food security bill by UPA. Now on top of NAREGA largess which anyway is being siphoned more than 50 % ,waiving of 60000 crore of farm loans,this 1 lac crore of gift is a desperate attempt by a bribe taking govt to give bribe & remain elected.
Sometimes I think that how could we select these UPA people.We need to teach immly our Muslim,SC,OBC brethren about the daylight robbery being done in their name by Congress.So UPA will remain in power in times to come as well.The latest election survey in UP indicate the if Congress n SP join hand they will easily form the Govt.BJP is a distant 4th.
Govt. should give Rs. 25,000 to every citizen over 18(whoever can vote) per month to ensure everybody has food, nice home, a TV, a car etc. Then plant trees where money grows. We all can sit back watch TV and become happiest country in the world. Socialism so far was not enough. Then we got NREGA which was not enough either. So we will have FSB which I doubt will be enough. So lets invent a tree where money grows and then throw money from helocopter.
Posted on:12/18/2011 3:48:09 AMrohit1889
How-ever there are a lot of landmines in the market with a few more live explosives in them so it is better to walk the concrete path (strong names) rather then take the shortcuts (beaten down stocks) even though it would mean taking a more time in reaching to our destination.