It seems that every investor is looking at himself in isolation. That means he thinks that the
So as things get set for another debate on whether we would test 12,500 or 7800 I am of the firm view that unless another major catastrophe happens which is inconceivable from the investor�s mind as on date we should not break the lows. What if we hit a GDP of 5% for Fy10? Well, in that case aren�t we discounting a downward revision? The foreigners are already talking of 4.4% and what if we get 5.4% or rather what if we get 3.4%. The sensex should fly depending on where we actually land up.
Didn�t Tata Steel rally as the results were 50% below expectations? One would have bet the stock to fall as the results started to flash but it did not, ditto with Ashok Leyland. If stocks cannot fall when companies are declaring results that are 50% below expectations and sales are down 70% y-on-y then it means that we need a bigger mess to screw up the investor!
So before we come out with that fearful sensex prediction of 6000 or whatever always add a line as to which news will take it there to that level. That is because markets are about the odds and we have no hindsight advantage. The only advantage is one of foresight if only we had one!
Very nice Bastantji,
very much agree with you on all the points. But this time its different
This time big boss, USA, is in big trouble.
Equity Outlook: Stay in market, but prepare for the worst
Looks like even the bigwigs of the industry are also confused!!
Basantji,
I am agreed on most of the points you mention but my feeling is more about timing rather then price. There is limited downside if any from here on with few % here & there but I feel that time wise we may see long break. So I feel that market may not move significantly in either direction. It is defiantly not the reason for not buying stock but be ready for long time without any big happening on the screen.
Basantji at the outset let me start by diagreeing with the title.There are no bets and odds in the market.A probability for the movement of the market would be too difficult a calculation best left to nimble traders.The word that we FOCUS on is INVESTOR.
Comming to the real estate companies who were building flats for God Knows who .Case in point the Unitec or Dlf developments at KOlkata the average rate of the flats were 85 lakhs . The number of flats available in the bracket in my opinion far exceeds the demend i.e the end user demand. So the pricing has to be realistic for this to happen the bidding for public land has to go to realistic levels and not to a level that causes the companies to return land bid for as in Noida.Unviable expansion projets ,Diworsification and inflated egos of the executives at the helm of companies causes greater wealth distruction.Some Birla companies have distroyed share holder wealth come Bear or Bull market so it is for the investor to identify:
My feeling is that the stock market as a whole may not go down/up, but it will be more stock specific. There are stocks which can go down from here on also. Again there will be stocks that can rise. There are many stocks which went below the Oct/Nov lows and some stocks doubled from there. Dish TV is one stock which doubled from lows.
So the odds are if all the pessimism are in the price or not for individual stocks and if it can do better or worse than the pessimism/expectation that is in the price.
Well if Stock price is governed by results then the pain could last over 6 quaters till some of the poison in the system has been flushed out .
Nice piece.
Posted on:2/9/2009 8:32:41 AMkaushalchawla
I very much agree with you on all the points. But this time its different
This time big boss, USA, is in big trouble.
The subprime issue was contained......then the housing issues were contained.....then banking issues were contained.....then spreading it to the world were contained.....also the real economy of the USA was contained.....India and China, the decoupled economy, were contained....
Then Obama came as hope....and now he is using the same tools that Bush used....housing, banks, economy is still in mess....still there's no resolution in sight....consumers are cutting back....ppl are getting unemployed.
I also read that during great depression, there were 8 rallies of 25% upmove....(bear market rallies)....
Just a few words of caution to consider before you invest.