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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Topic: The EquityDesk XI is on fire!
    Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 6:43pm
Originally posted by basant

 The Equity Desk XI vs. The Indian Cricket XI
 
I have tried to create my definition of what could be a multibagger portfolio for the next 3-4 years. To give the first time investors of what kind of companies these are I have compared it to the Indian Cricket XI.
 
Some of the stocks in this portfolio have gone up multifold but that does not mean it cannot go up further. Infosys  went up 30 times after it was a 100 bagger. But we cannot get an Infosys every time.This does not mean that there will no more Infosys in the  Indian Markets. Marc Faber once told me that Just because a stock has gone up 9 times do not mean it should decline. 
 

Indian XI

The Equity Desk XI

Sector

Virender Sehwag

Pantaloon Retail

Consumer - Retailing

Sachin Tendulkar

HDFC,

Mortgages

Rahul Dravid

Bharti  Airtel 

Mobile Telephony

Yuvraj Singh

TV 18

Broadcasting and Internet

V.V.S. Laxman

DIsh TV

Media Distribution

M.S.Dhoni

Educomp

Education and Training

Irfan Pathan

Financial Technologies 

Exchanges and software application

Anil Kumble

HDFC Bank

Retail banking

Suresh Raina

ENIL

Radio

Harbhajan Singh

Suzlon Energy

Wind Energy

Zaheer Khan

Network18

Media Conglomerate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discussion links for each of these companies can be initiated for further reading. I wanted to include Saurav Ganguly (we studied in the same college) but he looks like Bombay Dyeing to me - lot of runs (land) but our of form (bad operating business). We could keep ICICI  Bank  as a super sub and would replace it with HDFC Bank  as and when things pan out.

As always I welcome your comments to this portfolio which has been designed for Mr. Rip Van Winkle who promises to get up from sleep once every six months.

 

Regards,

 

 

Basant Maheshwari

P.S. I have a vested interest in all the stocks either directly or indirectly. Please read the disclaimer before investing.

 
Discussion continued fromThe Equity Desk XI vs. Indian Cricket XI  :
 
The Equitydesk XI is on fire. I have been tracking this portfolio since May  1st 2007. The results -
 
Sensex returns since May 1st - 2.26%
TED XI - 12.3% !!
 
Winners: Educomp, Financial Technologies ,TV 18
Laggards: Trent, Bharti  Airtel, DIsh TV (added on 30th May)
 
I am assuming that equal amount has been invested in each of the stocks. I will update the results next month.


Edited by basant - 07/Jun/2007 at 8:00pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 7:47pm
Thanks for that effort. If you look at the index from the date individual stocks were recommended you would conclude that this index has beaten all the MF's and hedge funds in India and surprisingly the equitydesk index comes without load/management fees/carry it is FREE and because it is free it is still to hit the popularity charts!!!
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 10:23pm
If you look at the index from the date individual stocks were recommended you would conclude that this index has beaten all the MF's
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I dont think any fund managers have guts to hold only 11 stocks..Also,they can invest a maximum of 10% of their asset size in a particular stock..Samir Arora restricts max.holdings upto 6%..
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 10:26pm
While I have assumed that equal amount was invested in each of the stocks, I don't think that's how you intended it to be. I'm sure you are more bullish on some stocks (Pantaloon, TV18) and less bullish on others (Trent? Suzlon?).
 
So if somebody wants to invest in TED XI from tomorrow, what would your portfolio allocation be in percentages for each of the stocks?
 
What I'm surprised about is - TED XI has very low volatility eventhough there are only 11 stocks. HDFC, HDFC Bank and Bharti seems to bring lots of stability to the portfolio while the hard work of giving returns is done by the others.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 10:54pm
Devesh:More you the number of stock that you hold, more you dilute the better ideas. It is just like if you want to have everything in a dinner party you can have only so much of your favourite dish.
 
For a normal person he copuld allocate almost equally. FOr greedy people like me we are too busy trying to be cautious (buying stocks that I can see with my eyes and monitor day by day) and putting more money in the best idea.
 
Now let us talk about one stock where I went a bit wrong "Educomp" since I could not monitor the day to day movement of this company (quite unlike a TV channel where you can sit down and count the  number of thrid party advertisements) I recommended selling off at around Rs1040 but on the thread I did mention that diversified portfolios (more then 8 stocks) could hold it since all the company did was adapt an aggressive accounting posture.
 
So if I get a  chance I would put everything into either Tv18 or Pantaloon or Network 18 but that is not how risks are managed.The returns would come with in the backdrop of higher risks. On the other hand if I wanted to have one stock and sleep well at night I would be with HDFc bank!
 
Look at most of the MF portfolios they hold a lot of non performing junk commodity stocks in decent quantity now how this diversification reduces risk is something that beats me.
 
 
 


Edited by basant - 07/Jun/2007 at 10:57pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 5:33am

Bhagwan ke ghar deer hai per andher nahi!! Congratulation TEDs.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote kanagala Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 9:29am
YESBANK deserved  a place here for vision, execution & transparency of the management(As vipul ji mentioned in other thread) .
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 11:50am
Personally, I'm not investing in TED XI in the current composition - because it doesn't suit my risk profile. I'm more of a large cap kind of guy. However, I do have some stocks of TED XI in my portfolio in much lower percentages.
 
I'm tracking TED XI to benchmark my personal portfolio's performance Smile
 
A few comments about TED XI -
 
- Not having any exposure to the Big Three software companies might result in TED XI underperforming the Sensex - especially if Infy comes out with 30% YoY growth next quarter.
 
- After entry of NW18, media companies constitute 40% of the overall portfolio.
 
- No Reliance Industries? RPL refinery is going online in 2008. Cash profit is set to double in 2010 thanks to KG basin gas discoveries. Reliance Retail should bring in serious money after that. Isn't this a good pick for Rip Van Winkle?
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