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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 12:37pm
Sanpat jee
 
You may visit this discussion on Nilkamal Plastics – More then just Plastics here on this thread
 
Please do post if you have any fresh inputs.
 
 
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kg
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Quote kg Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 2:23am

hi

everybody ...firstly thanks basant for such a topic and the article ..brilliant one ...jss wanted toadd to the list ...the opening up of print media and the huge returns in it ... deregulation of airline industry and the money made by all....similarly now we are witnessing the nuclear deal which is gonna create another bounty ......licensing of the 3G will again change dynamics ...basically if we look at the explosive growth in india ....it some what dittoes the one which has happened in the developed economies though the speed has been faster in india given the demographic size and composition...
 
5 year back when i was in singapore i saw the mall mania and had at that time shrugged the idea for india - a very big mistake ( though at this point i would completely agree with one of the other points made by basantji ...holding a stock is to some extent by luck - pantaloon - i hold it from the time of public issue applied by my dad ....) ..at that same time the mobile business is singapore was witnessing tremendous growth - phones were available at almost free cost alongwith the post paid connection - something again which was like seemingly impossible in india at that time ....the kind of penetration of internet in singapore where hey used to teach it in kinder garden ..clear indication for a internet boom ..the kind of infrastructure what singapore and shanghai had at that time is still distant from us and should easily give us an indication on the potential of this sector ...i hv been wanting to go abroad to see and observe some of these changes which can happen in future but have not been able to go ....since this forum has people both from india and aborad would request members contribution on this thought if considered worthwhile ...
 
some sectors which come to my mind are ....
 
 
1.Mall management - are there any companies in the mall management segment ( lotus knowealth or knight frank ) 
2.Service apartment business or property brokerage ( likes of meghraj ) . 3. Also are there any companies in the arena of consumer research ( ac nielsen types ) and consumer connections( market research ) ..something like meme as referred by Kishore biyani in his book ..
4.Private label is gonna be growing big time - any idea companies which can benefit from it ( vvf industries..) ...
5. is GOD TV or MIRACLE TV listed abroad ?
6. Any listed company in advertising space or content development...(Prime focus )
7.Wine for sure ,,,
8. Golf and leisure parks , theme parks
9. IPTV - this is already there in india and just waiting for 3G license ..
10. Nanotechnology ...biometrics ....lifecell
 
may b i have written a lot ...thanks ..pl add ..would wait for ur ideas ..
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kg
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Quote kg Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 2:29am
i had some more doubts in my mind and would be helpful if someone could guide ...its more macro ..didnt knew where to post it so am positing it ...basantji -request u to direct me to the write forum .,,,
 
its kind of strange but crude is trading at $77 ............metals trading at life time high figures ...US economy still not out of the woods and the sub-prime lending still creating havoc...japanese economy still reeling under pressure and working in a manner which makes yen a depreciating currency  ...but the number of countries showing growth of more than 5% outnumber the declining or not growing countries...india and china growing at greater than 9% ..monetary flows in india and other developing countries not stopping despite government measures leading to inflation in these economies and appreciation of the currencies (china is a diff case ) ...i m unable to solve the maze ...where is it all leading ...is the money on oil driving the world ? Is it Private Equity funds who are driving economies - have bankers across world become more risk taking...What could be the possible reasons ? Globalisation ? technological advancement ? Is it all gonna be lasting ?
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Quote nikhil090 Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 8:41am
Services provided to the services industry can be big - security (if listed), people like CAMS (MCS has actually blown it) etc. There should be many more services than currently seen which will slowly come up which will not be structural change, but may provide good returns..
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kg
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Quote kg Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 10:36am
some more which came to my mind ...sunrise industry which we call ....dish tv - set top box has been there for ages , mulitplexes again have been for a very long time ...bio-diesel again is something where we dont need to re-invent the wheel - US has been using it for long time .....so can we see some discernible trends in the other markets which could soon make it to india thanks to globalisation ....
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 11:49am
Krishna, you appear to be more convincing even than basant Sir....although such companies are not meant for me at all, yet your arguments are sufficiently persuasive. If someone is willing to sacrifice the financial strength of a company, then such spaces as you mentioned are excellent.
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catcall
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Quote catcall Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2007 at 1:44pm

Bubble, there are very few instances of order cancellations since a lot of capital costs have already been incurred, as part of Engineeering inputs, by the clients. with reagrds of ramping up of capacity, well upgrading of capacities in most of these units is already initiated , but upgarding of such a unit itself is a 2~3 years project,which is why most of these units  have already declared that they are fully booked and cannot accept any more orders.

On the point raised by Basantji, that I would beg to differ on the issue that no change is happening on the capital goods sector. Leave aside the order books by themselves, just see what it is doing to the margins of these company. Unlike say someting like RCom, which is dropping rates to gain volumes, these companies are now able to gain both in terms of margins and volumes. The additional capital available to these companies has enabled them to enter into niche areas of manufacturing and international cleints are now looking up to these companies with much more respect and hence orders.
Also note that growth in any sector, be it sugar,manufacturing, capital goods , refining and petrochem cannot take place without massive additions in power production and all these industires must therefore converge on the power sector for support.
The type of power may vary depending on the usage ,size and capital.But irrespective of whether the first source of energy to run the turbine comes from gas ,coal, wind  or neuclear for operating the  mother turbines, downstream sections would be requiring more or less similar units.
In short, if the overall GDP growth is to be maintained anywhere @ the 8~9% plus mark, this industry should show great CAGRs in the comming years and would be multibaggers.... just a personal opinion....
There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing!
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2007 at 4:15pm

Some members had mentioned about CRAMS as a very large opportunity under Pharma sector. Perhaps they could post more on the subject..

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