Multibaggers in a Structural Change

One of the biggest delight of an investor is to hold on to a multibagger (stocks that rise multiple times over the purchase price). Ideally multibaggers originate from the cusp of a structural change happening within a sector. Companies like  Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Pantaloon Retail, Unitech have been an  offshoot of a the “structural change” that was happening within the industry these companies operated in.

Whenever a new sector is born or emerges in its new form companies undergo rapid transformation depending on the scale of opportunity. In 1990 the Govt. decontrolled cement and steel and the Harshad Mehta bull run was aptly led by ACC with the stock grossing 40 times in less then 40 months. The Software industry was born in the mid 1990’s and people made huge money from Infosys, Satyam and Wipro, Mobile telephony was a new sector and we all realized how quickly it was intruding our lives. It became a sin to leave a mobile phone at home but had we looked at stocks like Bharti Airtel we would have made 15 - 20 times the money. Private Banking was another of those areas which set about to change the way consumers banked. As the branches for HDFC Bank opened nearer to our homes the stock returned more then 30 times for its early investors in over just a little more then a decade. Insurance was also born in the early part of this decade and MAX India a relatively smaller player has been up some 25 times. Pantaloon Retail was one company which indicated the arrival of organized retail and anyone who got in early has made 60 times his wealth. Brokerages erupted with the advent of the internet and Indiabulls is a classic example of a big multibagger in less then 5 years.

So the easiest thing would have been to look around and see what are the new activities that are taking people off their feet. Investing in stocks of structural change requires more of foresight with an ability to predict as to how big the sector could become in 3-5 years.. These companies are small and managed mostly by first generation promoters, they seldom pay dividend and more importantly remain expensive throughout the length of the bull market. A classic case is Financial technologies (majority owners of the commodity exchange “MCX”). This company has traded at a PE of more then 100 ever since it was identified, Pantaloon trades at a PE of 50 so the traditional valuation matrix does not hold good because the market is eager to discount too far into the future.

The Pitfalls: Investing in stocks undergoing a structural change comes with a caveat. No matter what happens investors should never get over smart and invest in stocks that are not leaders within the sector. The smart money that chased Bharti Airtel was adequately rewarded but the over smart money that bought TTML faltered and lost out. In the mid nineties when motorcycles overtook scooters as a preferred two wheeler choice the smart money bought Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto while the over smart money picked up LML. After about a decade it is the smart money that is riding all the way to the Bank.

Coming to banks, if the over smart money had tried to get into one of the not so smartly managed banks like Global Trust Bank and Bank of Rajasthan they would have regretted their over smartness. The smart money was content picking up the leaders like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank but the over smart money that wanted a quick double have seen their assets being eroded. Similarly buying Pantaloon Retail would have made a huge amount of money for the investor but getting into Piramid Retail and Shoppers Stop would not have been that good an experience.

In the post liberalization period of 1992 cement stocks were in great fancy. Had the investor been smart he would have stuck to ACC, Gujarat Ambuja and L&T but his over smart cousin would have bought Modi Cement , Kakatiya Cement, Kalyanpur. Ditto for the steel stocks - the smart guy would have bought Tisco others would have lapped up Lloyd Steel , Sunflag Iron. The most glaring instance was in the tech boom. Investors in sector leaders like Infosys and Wipro did not lose as much as those in companies like Silverline and DSQ.

The next change: Organized retailing would continue to gain and companies like Pantaloon Retail and Titan are good businesses to own. Pantaloon is moving away from being a retailing company to a diversified consumer play. Sales are expected to rise 7 - 8 times in the next 4 years with incremental revenues coming from new business verticals like capital, media, brands and the internet.

Similarly digitalization should change the very fundamentals in the electronic broadcasting space niche businesses like those from the TV18 group; distribution companies like Dish TV could become really big. There is massive under declaration from the last mile cable operator which should add about US $ 3- 4 billion to the organized sector in the form of higher subscription revenues which come in at no incremental cost. Consider that we pay Rs 70 per month for Economic times and even if TV18 were to get Rs 15 per month from its 30 million viewers across India it would add Rs 540 crores to the pre-tax bottom line. Additionally Tv18 holds valuable internet properties like moneycontrol.com, ibnlive.com etc through Web18 which could be listed in the near future to unlock value.

The internet is undergoing rapid growth at more then 50% CAGR. Several companies like Makemytrip.com, Web18 etc would go public in the near future and when they list people would question their valuations but as investors we should take a long term view and stay with the leader (revenue is a good guide) for the entire length of the bull market.

Radio is a new space which should grow and companies like ENIL are already being re-rated at the bourses. CRAMS has been a buzzword and Divis has been a big winner but the potential is huge, another space where a change is happening but not in the strict sense of the word is the financial services space where companies like Reliance Capital and Kotak Bank would significantly gain because of their brokerage, AMC and Insurance businesseses. But the trick in playing these changes is to get in early and stay with the leader because finally it is a high risk high reward strategy.

The NSE, Bharat Chamber of Commerce and the ICAI Eastern region had conducted a conference titled India Vision 2010. The meet was attended by Madhu Kela, Atul Suri, Gul Tekchandani, Shankar SHarma, S.P. Tulsian etc.This article appeared in a book that was released on that day.

Excellent article Basant jee, congratulations!. It is a discourse on identifying businesses.

Great Article Basant Jee. And THANKS for promoting me to a Groupie. :) .. just noticed it today.

Basantjee

Originally posted by tyler_durden Originally posted by mragarwal Great Article Basant Jee. And THANKS for promoting me to a Groupie. :) .. just noticed it today. Its an honor for me to be a part of this forum where you and other great value investors share your time and wisdom with us.   If you or anyone from here is in Delhi, please let me know.. will be great to meet/chatup/ or be the host.   Regards   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   am from delhi/gurgaon.....

I sometimes do come to Delhi and at other times am traveling due to personal work. How's the property market there in Delhi agrawal ji. Any good bargains anywhere?

Lots of advertisments from big people plus I guess there is an article by Madhu kela will check up and see if it can be posted.

Hi Basant,

Well written! For new readers of the book where it’s been published, it’d be a good read. However, for any visitor/member of this forum, it’s just another day of consolidating jointly-held beliefs.

More than your writing, I’d rather compliment you on the temperament & energy with which you lead this forum. Hope that spirit continues! (There is enough & more intelligence on the earth – it’s these two, which are scarce)

Taking off from your article, one thing that I’d like to pose to the group is whether the composition of TED-XI lives upto that. Many of the TED-XI stocks have turned out to be multibaggers in the last four year ride of Sensex from 4K-odd to 15K. Over this period, an addition of 10K points has actually multiplied the index by almost 4 times. Going forward, one might hypothesise the same absolute gain in the index, but the multiple factor is surely questionable. In that background, some of the stocks will perhaps not multiply as well as they’ve done in the past. The TED-XI composition is perhaps a balanced one, for a >25% returns without undue risk.

Would it make sense to identify a set of new ‘structural change’ stocks that will multiply with GDP growths of 10% & index movement to 25K in 3-4 years time? The forum favourites in this context are Pantaloon, TV18 & NW18, but is there a possibility of even these stocks multiplying by 20 times in the next 5 years? The question to ponder is whether these stocks are ‘discovered’ ones with healthy market caps or would they still classify as ‘hidden gems’. Despite regular updations on TED-XI, is there a point of considering another list of fab-5 stocks with mkt cap less than 200 crs (by applying all the same principles as have been done to select the XI)? Yes indeed, this one would be more roller-coaster, but if built on the Patel-Pabrai principle (Head-I-win, Tails-I-don’t-lose-much), it could create significant value.

Probably the forum favourites already are such stocks – simply because structural changes are long lasting phenomenon & not short lived fads - and hence will continue to multiply wealth at an inorganic rate. However, it always, always, pays to explore alternate views continuously so as to void thought inertia!

Anways, good luck to all of you. All of you on the forum understand markets & stocks better than me & perhaps more than 99% of people. It’s always nice to read the views of top percentile of thought leaders in any domain!

CatCall...........With your fantastic back ground in the sector you mentioned, I would like to ask you that what specifically are you referring too. Power Utilities .....Or Power & Capital Goods!

Wow Kulman.......

Modifying a bit of the Old saying.....

Great minds differ while Fools think alike.........LOL

Kulman……..I never mind, as I dont have one, according to some TEDies, as I seem to always be talking which is greek to many!!!

Thanks Catcall. I would like to ask one more thing………is it common to see any cancellations of order if and when the situation demands. Also, do you place any margins upfront while placing the orders?

I am asking this to try and judge the downside and I certainly don’t think(hope) that a cancellation would be required in the first place.

Also, are the order books of power capital goods companies are booked 2 or 3 year ahead. If Yes, cant they bring up capacity to fullfill the demand ahead of time? If Yes to that also, what will happen if the orders fullfilled? If no, why cant the capacity be rammped up to meet the demand?

hi

Bubble, there are very few instances of order cancellations since a lot of capital costs have already been incurred, as part of Engineeering inputs, by the clients. with reagrds of ramping up of capacity, well upgrading of capacities in most of these units is already initiated , but upgarding of such a unit itself is a 2~3 years project,which is why most of these units  have already declared that they are fully booked and cannot accept any more orders.

Some members had mentioned about CRAMS as a very large opportunity under Pharma sector. Perhaps they could post more on the subject..

Basantjee,

I had a chance to read this article and its really wonderfully articulated !!!

Thanks for this article. I have read it again and again. This also remindes me my faourite interview of Samir arora on Capitalideas http://www.capitalideasonline.com/articles/index.php?id=545 - which I read again and again

Madras Fertilizers (listed on NSE) is going through a structural change and can be a multibagger. Here are a few pointers:-

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