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The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times :Crude & Agri commodities

Topic: Life with crude at US $100 and above!!!

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MissingLink
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Posted: 12/Apr/2009 at 10:48pm

Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Originally posted by MissingLink

An interesting article on peak oil.

http://financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0407.html

Strong arguments. Worth noting. Any thoughts on "peak-oil-proofing" our porfolios (other than Praj)?

One will have to go through the pain of rising input costs because of peaking-oil production. It will affect bottom line of most of the companies. Known alternatives to oil will not be able to suppliment oil.

Ethanol comes its with its own problems (food-vs-fuel debate, cost of production etc...)

Edited by MissingLink - 12/Apr/2009 at 10:49pm

Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Hitesh Shah
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Posted: 12/Apr/2009 at 6:18am

Originally posted by MissingLink

...

Ethanol comes its with its own problems (food-vs-fuel debate, cost of production etc...)

Using waste (non-food) cellulose will remove the first argument. High crude, the second.

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MissingLink
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Posted: 12/Apr/2009 at 9:30am

Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Originally posted by MissingLink

...

Ethanol comes its with its own problems (food-vs-fuel debate, cost of production etc...)

Using waste (non-food) cellulose will remove the first argument. High crude, the second.

Let me see if I can answer your questions

(1)

but waste (non-food) is food for somebody else (cattle). IF you divert it towards ethenol then it hits the animal rearers and farmers below the belt.

(2) High crude...

Lets assume the cure price goes up. THe farmer who grows sugarcane has to pay more to plough his fields because he uses tractor to plough the fields which consume diesel. He then has to pay more for fertilizers which direcly or indirectly need crude oil. He then has to pay more to reap the harvest because he uses machine which run on crude. He has to pay more to transport it to a ethenol manufacturing facility because he uses a tractor which consume diesel.

So the ethenol manufacturing company has to pay more for the same raw material because crude oil prices increased.

THen the ethenol manufacturing plants have to extract juice from the sugar cane which needs machines which run on some form of energy. THen distillation of ethenol which again uses energy (possibly crude).

So a rise in crude prices will directly effect the price of ethenol.

Edited by MissingLink - 12/Apr/2009 at 9:57am

Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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paragdesai
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Posted: 12/Apr/2009 at 9:49am

All these problems have only one logical solution. Try to minimize use of Crude Oil in non productive use.

Just imagine how much of oil we waste in crowded bumper to bumper traffic situation in cities like Mumbai, Banglore, Delhi etc. which entirely unproductive. No one benefit from this & as a nation & world we lost economically as well as environmentally.

Use of any vehicles are only meant for purpose of transportation. If our government emphasis on mass transportation system (slowly we are heading that way) this problem can be resolved in short- medium term till we find any other sustainable alternative source of energy.

Only looser will be Auto Industries. Cry

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity ....

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deveshkayal
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Posted: 13/Apr/2009 at 3:17pm

Also eliminate taxation on hybrid cars. Honda Civic Hybrid will be available at 13 lakhs compared to 22 lakhs now!

"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

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Hitesh Shah
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Posted: 13/Apr/2009 at 5:34pm

Originally posted by paragdesai

All these problems have only one logical solution. Try to minimize use of Crude Oil in non productive use. ....

I keep thinking of the incongruity of the whole world shutting of lights for an hour and then switching on the TV to watch Formula 1 Confused

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paragdesai
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Posted: 13/Apr/2009 at 7:58pm

Originally posted by Hitesh Shah

Originally posted by paragdesai

All these problems have only one logical solution. Try to minimize use of Crude Oil in non productive use. ....

I keep thinking of the incongruity of the whole world shutting of lights for an hour and then switching on the TV to watch Formula 1 Confused

Hiteshbhai,

I am too big fan of F1 since 1990 but when got info about their budget I find no reason to follow these races except some entertainment. When oil was @147 even they are also shouting & now many teams are struggling with their budgets.

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity ....

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AnushkaSingh
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Posted: 09/Dec/2011 at 10:39am

Crude oil futures fell for a second straight day on Thursday as disappointing comments from the head of the European Central Bank increased doubts among investors that the region’s debt crisis will be contained.

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