Reetesh -- i look at the continous contracts chart and data. Gaps can vary in commodities as there is a new contract every month. Gaps may also be need NOT be filled for a long time as we had a gap in TISCO chart from 1992, which was filled in 2003 after 12-Years. Currently the Crude is near an important Support of $60.00 which is its 21-Month MA. It has not broken below this since Apr-2003. This indicates its significance. On visually looking at the chart the next Major Support is at $55.00, a break below which is NOT expected at the current momment.
I personally dont trade crude or gas, however i recommend them to clients. Currently, the clients are holding shorts which were initiated near 70 and 69 region.
On EM -- the EM index is currently worrysome. I believe Jim will not Sell China, as he has already sold off his NY property and is planning to settle somewhere in singapore or HK. I would not bet against him.
Shale Oil -- frankly, i dont know much about them as unfortunately, i am not a geologist, however i had once read that the extraction cost of Oil would be very High, somewhere near $35-$40, Hence it would be in the interest of the Govts that "they" dont let the price of Crude fall much below that.
Edited by BubbleVision - 22/Sep/2006 at 10:39am
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