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investor
Senior Member
Joined: 06/Sep/2006
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Posts: 1745
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   Posted: 04/Jun/2008 at 5:31pm |
Not sure, it goes against most of the fundas that i learnt in my Economics class in college! 
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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
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basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 04/Jun/2008 at 5:34pm |
Originally posted by smartcat
High Inflation + Low GDP Growth rates = Bear market
But what will happen if there is sustained high inflation + high growth rate? Can high inflation and high growth rates co-exist? |
Yes, they can in China you have a case of high inflation and high growth. problem is Govt focuses on inflation whereas they should focus on growth once you have a higher output this increased supply will cool down inflation which is nothing but more money chasing too few goods.
But Govt. have to win elections and investors have to make money from markets and therein lies the difference. 
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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basant
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Posted: 04/Jun/2008 at 5:43pm |
You are right on that but I was just indicating a situation where high inflations has co-existed with high growth rates generally all measures to control inflation are anti growth so if one has to choose between the two the options vary according to which side of the camp you are in.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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master
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Joined: 06/May/2008
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Posts: 831
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Posted: 09/Jun/2008 at 11:08pm |
India Inc`s dividend payout drops to 5-yr low
Indian companies' average dividend payout ratio, or the dividend paid as a percentage of profit, plummeted to a five-year low in the year ended March 31, 2008 as state-run oil refiners, including Indian Oil and rivals, reported lower net income, forcing them to pay less to shareholders.
The payout declined to 22 per cent in 2007-08 from more than 24 per cent in each of the last four years, an analysis of the 657 companies, which announced dividends in the financial year ended March, showed. The sample is from the list of 2,000 companies, which have declared results, though only 657 companies announced dividends as of June 6. The sample group of 657 companies showed a 17 per cent increase in dividends to Rs 42,688 crore in FY08 compared with Rs 36,581 crore a year earlier. These companies posted an aggregate 29 per cent rise in net profit at Rs 1,94,448 crore in FY08 as compared with Rs 1,50,413 crore in FY07, data showed.
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Dividend in % |
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2007 |
2008 |
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EID Parry |
295 |
25 |
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HPCL |
180 |
30 |
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Eicher Motors |
290 |
50 |
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JB Chem |
130 |
25 |
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Indian Oil |
190 |
55 |
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ICI (India) |
270 |
80 |
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Bharat Electron |
180 |
60 |
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Raymond |
50 |
25 |
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Essel Propack |
100 |
60 |
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Natl Aluminium |
75 |
45 |
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However, out of the 657 companies, 361 increased their rate of dividend in the year while 196 maintained the same level as in the previous year even as 100 others pruned their payouts. Several state-run companies cut the dividend rates after reporting a drop in net profit for FY08. Bharat Heavy Electrical, the country's biggest power equipment maker, announced a dividend of Rs 15.25 a share, or 152.50 per cent in FY08 as compared with Rs 24.50 a share, or 245 per cent in the previous year.
Source: BS
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deveshkayal
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Joined: 04/Sep/2006
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Posts: 3903
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Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 10:43am |
Citi :
India Equity Strategy: 4QFY08 Results: So Far So Good
Earnings marginally above expectations; moderating growth trend continues - Sensex ex-oil profits for 4QFY08 are up 12.2%, marginally ahead of our 11.2% (excludes ONGC & Tisco - yet to report) expectations. If Tisco/ONGC report in-line, Sensex profit growth should be 19%. Growth rate trend, however, continues to moderate-42.4% peak in 3QQ08 & heading down since. Earnings trends for CIR universe-155 stocks-is also ahead, up 5.4% yoy (5% expectation), but the level is more modest (includes loss of Oil refining companies).
24% revenue growth provides the upside surprise; an ahead of expectation margin fall the primary offset - Revenue momentum surprises on upside - 24% (20% expectation), and in-line with the peak 33.6% achieved in 3QFY08. The offset, however, is in margins; -115bps yoy (-90 bps expectation) - likely reflecting the end of corporate India's operating leverage and cost pressures. Rising interest cost pressures also coming through - PAT margins are down to 9.6% (10.8% in Dec07) - 5th quarter running that PAT margins have dipped.
Earnings mix does, however, improve; other income share dips back to average - The quality of earnings is, however, up; other income dips back to 6.3% of sales, down from the 10.3% in Dec-07. Operationally, March 08 has probably been a step-up over the Dec-07 quarter.
Sectorally, there are meaningful surprises - Banks, Pharma, Materials and Capital Goods have driven ex-oil profit surprises so far, IT Services, Auto, Telecom, and Utilities have surprised negatively, and Consumer, Petrochemicals have earnings in-line with expectations.
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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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India_Bull
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Joined: 19/Sep/2006
Location: United States
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Posts: 2296
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Posted: 11/Jun/2008 at 10:52am |
We will come to know if there is a slowdown in the half yearly results , lets wait and watch.
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India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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experteye
Senior Member
Joined: 20/Mar/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 496
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Posted: 12/Jun/2008 at 12:35pm |
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Not only India Inc but World Inc too is gone into slowdown.It is time to search out those new possible emerging leaders of 2012.We should forget about sensex now.In fact I do request you all to discuss about these NEW SET OF 2012 LEADERS without bothering level of 14000 or 9000 etc.etc.
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more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market.
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BIKRAM
Groupie
Joined: 09/Mar/2008
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Posts: 47
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Posted: 12/Jun/2008 at 1:53pm |
We all know that due to rising inflation, high cost of crude , US slowdown , and other political factors, there is a definite slowdown in the near term.What really matters is that whether India Inc. will be able to deliver a near 8% growth, whether corporate earnings will be good or not in the coming quarters. Looking at todays IIP no.s which are quite good, I think that the long term growth story is still intact and the investors should pass the bearish time either investing/averaging at lower levels if they have adequate cash or just ignoring the intraday high and low levels of their holdings>
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