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Message Icon Topic: Is The Equity Desk biased against cyclicals? Post Reply Post New Topic
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:16pm
basant sir, i am not against anything, thats all what i intend to say. All i intend to say is that, what has not happened in the past doesnt mean it cant happen in future. kindly, take my post in right perspective. at times, if a thing is very cheap then we should overlook certain things. Chambal was at 32 and it was paying 1.80 as dividend...that was too much, and all the negatives was there in that at that price. These companies are churning huge huge amounts of money. Look at GE shipping....eps of 27 rupees in a quarter and such lovely dividends. Cement is really turning it on. Prism has been quite wonderful for me and I made a three timer in a small span of time there. Its true, they are meant for patient investors but they are meant for some people, is all i want to say
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:17pm
It’s also a never ending process of becoming a good investor.
 
--------------------------------------------
 
Chak De!!! Deepinsight....good points.
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:19pm
Also, am quite baffled with this appeasement unnecessarily. We are emotional about our stocks all right but we are not street fighters. If there's an argument, let it follow....why throw cold waters on something which helps us in improving our perspective. I am really thankful to Prosperity for starting this thread. It helps in settling issues and clearing point of views
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:42pm
But why are we emotional about our stocks? It is not us or our kin who are being criticized. We are not promoters of these companies. As an individual, we probably hold 0.0001% of the total stock - we are a nobody!
 
I would actually like it if somebody critizes/finds holes/trashes the stocks I pick.  It will help me decide on the portfolio allocation for each stock.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:03pm
 It helps in settling issues ...
_________________________________________________
 
Prosperity did not start this thread I moved the posts to a new thread and not sure about what issues you are referring to ?LOLLOLLOL.
 
Have you ever looked at a MF for investing? No I am not trying to suggest that you are inferior to those guys are anything but on my excel sheet I have a table which helps me compare myself with the top MF every six months.
 
The moment I feel that those guys are doing it beter then me I will not wait to send them over a cheque for my ENTIRE portfolio!
 
Just because I can analyse some stocks and have read some books and can moderate on a forum does not mean I will use my emotion to get in between me and my wealth.
 
Investing is a continuous process and while you may debate with a growth style the bottomline is we all want to make money rather then show knowledge. Reliance Growth fund has been up some 30 times in the last 12 years and Reliance Vision and Franklin prima have been up 20 times.
 
Have the basket of paper, cyclical, steel, cement and other commodity stocks done that? I would be happy to know if they have. Not an odd one but the whole portfolio.If they have then I would have to be corrected.
 
Let us not get into a 3 month view but take a longer term view.
 
I am not comparing these stocks to the ones I own but to those that are managed by MF managers.Smile


Edited by basant - 31/Aug/2007 at 5:07pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:14pm
Originally posted by deepinsight

Whoa gents & ladies please take a step back & see where we are.

The forum is a platform for expressing views, methods & processes, discussing companies, bringing in depth through analysis,  psychology, issues impacting our investments and then some more (about comradeship and having some fun).

We share a purpose to learn from what’s working and what’s not. We also share a purpose is to becoming good investors.

On this forum we have multitudes of experiences & profiles.

There are literally hundreds of varients of how one can become a successful investor. (Forex trading, growth investing, early stage growth investing, growth investing only with leaders, deep value, value with growth, value with a trigger,  dividend focussed, cyclical, turnarounds, restructuring and special situations, spinoffs, shorting, Futures and options, charting, etc. etc.)

As we have learnt we need to know what works for us -individually.

This individual formula is a complex residual of what we have learnt, how we have reacted in the past, our successes and failures, our psychological makeup etc. etc. It’s also a never ending process of becoming a good investor.

Here the issues discussed are being mixed with ideology (what is a successful investment for me and what has worked for me) and personal opinions.

There are class investors who have specialized and excelled in a particular process. E.g. Soros(fx), Jim Rogers (commodities), etc.

Everyone is entitled to finding his own groove, method, philosophy and process. That does not mean that is the only method or that his or her method is superior or inferior. We have to respect this diversity.

This forum is a big success because it allows multitude of opinions and learning’s to be expressed. Let’s not harm this.  If someone does not understand or disagrees with an opinion – the right processes has to be - bring depth of argument and explanation to defends one’s rational. This would allow more people to learn, think differently and ourselves also to articulate our own methods.

On a softer note, I was seeing Chakde India and the first half reminded me of this internal infighting – the good news is in Chakde – in the second half - the purpose wins, the team wins and individually the players win.

So chill! & Chakde TED!

 

Amen Deep Insight. Chakde!!!

 

And I don’t know why controversy this about cyclicals….

 

Markets themselves are based on cycles (Bull markets and bear markets)

24 hours is made of cycles (12 hours day and 12 hours night)

Humans are made of cycles (bad emotional make up and good emotional makeup. Crying and laughing)

 

Importantly……….

 

1) Media stocks = A direct play on the stock market cycle as one will see an increase in viewer ship in bull markets and vice versa.

 

2) Retail & other Fancy stocks = Direct play on employment growth in an economy, based on classical economic GDP cycles.

 

3) Internet Stocks = Based on human (user) preference cycles.

 

I don’t think anyone can deny cycles on earth and markets, how hard they try. Cycles are undeniable.

 
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:26pm
The fact that Basantjee has started a forum means that he wants a healthy discussion on all aspects of investing. Now we cannot put the onus on Basantjee for discussing everything , we are also members on this forum and can discuss about anything we feel passionate or knowledgeable about. - be it commodities, cyclicals or any other thing. If Basantjee had wanted only his opinions to be expressed, then TED would not have been what it is today, it would have been just another blogspot where people post only what they want.
the Equitydesk is the best
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:42pm

1) Media stocks = A direct play on the stock market cycle as one will see an increase in viewer ship in bull markets and vice versa.

 

2) Retail & other Fancy stocks = Direct play on employment growth in an economy, based on classical economic GDP cycles.

 

3) Internet Stocks = Based on human (user) preference cycles.

 
There is a difference between your definition of cyclicals (retail, media, software) and our definition of cyclicals (cement, steel, paper, shipping). Retail/Media/Software companies have a brand name. Customers know the difference between bigbazaar/shopper's stop, TV18/NDTV Profit and Infosys/iGate.
 
But customers wouldn't know the difference between Steel manufactured by Tata & SAIL, or cement manufacured by ACC and Guj Amb or goods transported by Essar Shipping and GE Shipping.
 
Does this count for anything?
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