Is The Equity Desk biased against cyclicals?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Fundamental
Forum Discription: Discuss the operations and finances of any of your companies.Make the other participants aware on the investment opportunities available in a stock on PE free cash flow etc
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1169
Printed Date: 04/May/2025 at 4:12am
Topic: Is The Equity Desk biased against cyclicals?
Posted By: prosperity
Subject: Is The Equity Desk biased against cyclicals?
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 1:16pm
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It was surprising to see no one talking about Tisco yesterday/today ..
It's not up on a technical news, but up on a fundamental news !
An Error which Market is/has_to correct !
Forget being bullish, TED is biased of ignoring commodities
These might be strong words, but i believe i have right to my opinion ..
Pardon me Basantji, if these have hurted you in anyway .. but that's truely the way i feel ..
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Replies:
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 1:28pm
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Prosperityjee,
Investing in commodity stks has its pros and cons. I took exposure in TISCO when it was corrected sharply. I think the Corus aquisition is going to benefit TISCO immensely in another 2-3 years time.
Even WB , has started taking interest in commodity stocks.
So there are no enemies in Politics and Stock Market. Every person has its own investing style and we should respect that- ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 1:35pm
Seems strange that you should make a remark like that. I do not control all the posts at TED if anyone is bullish on TISCO let him write a post, let him argue, just because you are bullish on a stock and I have no idea on it does not mean I am biased on or against it. Sure, I never put my money in a commodity but that is a matter of personal bias and I have a right to my own thoughts.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 3:13pm
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Basantji,
I respect your right to your views.
Somehow, because everyone respects you and is thankful to you, somehow no one shares/discusses areas like commodities, etc. where you have very strong opinion.
There is nothing preventing them to write about it but considering everyone respects/is_thankful to you, no one feels encouraged to share/write.
I know you felt strange and possibly annoyed at me. At the back of my head, i was thinking of how moneycontrol messageboard is different than TED. There are thousands of positives of TED over moneycontrol messageboard. I guess i picked the only negative of TED over moneycontrol and annoyed you..
Again, I am Sorry for hurting you - that was not my intent ...
But if you can take that as a sort of positive feedback, you might understand from where was i coming from !!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 3:28pm
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I was surprised at the argument not annoyed. See the people who are active at TED are all smart guys if tomorrow I ask them to buy Teledata I can bet not even 5 people (from the members) would buy. They talk reason and discuss it that way. If they bought Tv18 and made a 3 bagger in one year it was not because I was saying that but because they all did their homework (magnitude is debatable though)
I was never interested in http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=570 - Praj but still we have a thread on Praj, I never knew anything about http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=694 - Nucleus but still we incoporated it in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_topics.asp?FID=30 - Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap section so it is not what I want but what everyone wants and they do not like or dislike something because of me. Sure, my analysis does help in creating a mindset but I do it because that comes naturally out of me. I have no problems in Tata Steel the only thing is my incompetence to time the entries and exits.
Manish Dave is known to me for more then 3 years now and he invests in mostly commodities, Vivek Sukhani wants only dividends but that does not stop them to put their mind out here.
Probably if you expected me to write a short page on tisco and initiate a discussion then you should also understand that I cannot write on such companies.
I did write on http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=140 - Rain Commodities and it did go up about 70% in 3months but then I clearly indicated that I have no further idea and hence people could exit. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 3:57pm
Members will feel encouraged to write about other companies, if the interface is similar to that of MoneyControl.com, where all the companies are listed in alphabetical order. Just click on 'T" and write about Tata Steel.
But this might require a bit of overhaul of the TED interface. Sub-forums like 'Emerging Companies' are subjective - because not everybody feels so.
Properity, just create a thread on a commodity stock you like and 'adopt' it. Eg: Devesh Kayal has nicely created and adopted the Champagne Indage thread by updating us frequently about the wine industry.
You don't need to be an expert in Steel stocks. Opinions will come forth automatically from members when you post a question or a news item.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 6:15pm
Usually I would have avoided to participate in such a debate.
This investing is such a game where we get emotionally charged based on a price which is determined by two completely unknown people (buyer & seller) executing a trade. I'm still trying to learn...and that's the reason I log onto TED. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 6:27pm
| Basant sir, I remember that once upon a time you got extremely annoyed with me for me something and you were very angry with me for a long period of time. Its like we need positive reinforcements when we communicate. even a negative reinforcement or punishment is fine so long as its not extinction. I was very hurt when you said you dont bother to read about steell or shipping........and it was that day I decided not to talk of any stocks for fundamental reasons. So, bruises are made mistakenly or unknowingly....... hence will use this opportunity to apologise for any mistakes or slights which I may have made and lets help each others out to make this forum a wonderful place for obtaining and sharing knowledge.... |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 7:23pm
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With a fresh perspective, I went through COMPLETE 8 PAGES of: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=279&PN=1 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=279&PN=1 - Came to know why i was feeling the way i felt .... Towards the end of this topic (pages 6,7,8) found so many members saying they learnt to ignore cyclicals after joining TED ..
- Got various views/insights of so many members on cyclicals/commodites
- Also Found here Vivek Sukhani's post on Tisco which Kulman was trying to find
Interesting Diverse Collection on above subtopic - Was very good to back and refresh by reading all posts there !
Thanx !
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 7:44pm
| Although, TEd is a wonderful place, I think the biggest mistake one committs is by changing a person's opinion.......I would always like to be what I am and will like others to be what they are......if you are comfortable with cyclicals play that game, dont care a dime about what others say. I for one have my portfolio loaded with chemicals, cement , shipping and power generation companies but I dont care what people have to say for them....its your style and you should never change it whatever may be the case. after all, its our money naa, so how we use it entirely our discretion..... |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 7:53pm
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After i made a loss in Bajaj Hindhustan, i nver thought of investing in commodities... ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: us121
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 10:08pm
i was just reading AMA (Ahmedabad Management Association) monthly news paper. I could not resist myself from copying some lines here: IF WE ARE MATURE ENOUGH TO LEARN HOW TO TELL THE TRUTH TO EACH OTHER, BEHAVE IN WAYS WHICH, OVER TIME, CREATE AND BUILD MUTUAL TRUST, WHERE WE GENUINELY CARE FOR EACH OTHER, SUPPORT, INSPIRE AND HELP EACH OTHER TO GROW, LEARN TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE COLLECTIVE AND INDIVIDUAL MASTERY - THEN, AND ONLY THEN WILL WE CREATE THE RESULT WE ARE LOOKING FOR - A GREAT TEAM I would like to replace last line as 'A GREAT TED' ------------- ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 11:51pm
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Vivek: I started maintaining distance from your opinions because you wanted to view everything through one looking glass. When I initiated discussion on Pantaloon, Tv18 and Educomp you were there opposing it tooth and nail (refer to the relevant posts) these stocks have been up between 3 to 8 times in 14 months except that I have turned negative on Educomp when it was less then half the current price still I made a 5 bagger out of it and am happy to say that. At that time it seemed strange that instead of looking at the opportunity you were one day talking about dividends and the next day talking charts and the following day warning everyone of how bad a bear market could be and what happens to growth stocks.
Prosperity I have answered you before and have nothing more to add except that we should follow our beliefs and convictions.
There is nothing for me to add on this except to suggest that I am not the pied piper of Hamlin and if anyone thinks so then I am flattered  .------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 12:31pm
| pied piper of hamlin?????? hahahaha....you mix humour quite well...... However, on a slightly serious note, your performance will also invite some envious eyes and I dont think if someone expects you to be pied piper, he is over-expecting. I think I was quite harsh on educomp and I also think I have recognised my foolishness and have been candid in the confession in all the posts I have made for technicals for any stock. As far as pantaloon goes, I am not sure of what i said but for TV-18, I spoke the truth that its yet to test its all time high.....for me its all dead and buried now and although I am quite passionate about stocks and will fight hard if someone talks rubbish about them but wont stop talking if someone is very brutal against me for them....i think life's more big than stocks and all I know is success in stock markets is a very fleeting experience so will always like to pinch myself if I become too successful anytime.....sorry again if you still carrying that grudge....... |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 5:16am
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Shaanti OM. Shaanti Shaanti OM. <<Yesterday, I went to one Indian restaurant, there one big TV (Plasma) was put-up & to waste the resources it was running DD-National. So I selected table where I can sit opposite to TV. During dinner, my wife was watching TV and suddenly told me that Shaanti program is broad-casted on TV.>>
To Bhai logo, jab Shaanti abhi bhi chal rahi hai, to phr shaanti banane me kya harz hai.
*** This is pure jugad. Kahi ka sir aur kahi ka pair. Aap dimag nahi lagaye maine bhi nahi lagaya tha. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 5:51am
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basant if you are the pied piper of hamlyn then the rest of the folks who have bought pantaloon and tv18 have to be RATS! ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 9:34am
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....then the rest of the folks who have bought pantaloon and tv18 have to be RATS!
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 Nothing to worry.... we have couple of CATS on board who would ensure that rats don't stay around for long!!! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 9:37am
| Rats wont be there for long, kehna ka matlab kya hai???????? then who will follow the pied piper?????? cats or rats?????? |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 9:38am
| Let me clarify here, that this post above has only to do with the pied piper of hamlin, rats of hamlin and cats of hamlin. Kindly dont stretch this post to mean pied piper of TED, or rats of TED, or cats of TED. There is no intention of pun and is just a reply to manish sirji's post. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 9:59am
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...dissecting humor, like frogs, tends to leave the subject dead.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 2:43pm
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AMEN Kulman jee. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 3:16pm
| Its simply a matter of time, sometimes somethings do well sometimes others do well. In this fall, my portfolio has done quite decently and I hope this week i will manage my all time high. Thats because I love cyclicals and fertilizers, chemicals, oil and gas and shipping have been decent in recovery. Even FMCG has not been a big disappointer... Tisco has also bouinced back very well and its really turning the heats on.......there's nothing to hate cyclicals...and if no one has made money in cyclicals like shipping cement paper or steel, that doesnt prevent us from making money from them for the first time......in life, many things happen for the first time.... |
Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 3:23pm
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Whoa gents & ladies please take a step back & see where we are. The forum is a platform for expressing views, methods & processes, discussing companies, bringing in depth through analysis, psychology, issues impacting our investments and then some more (about comradeship and having some fun). We share a purpose to learn from what’s working and what’s not. We also share a purpose is to becoming good investors. On this forum we have multitudes of experiences & profiles. There are literally hundreds of varients of how one can become a successful investor. (Forex trading, growth investing, early stage growth investing, growth investing only with leaders, deep value, value with growth, value with a trigger, dividend focussed, cyclical, turnarounds, restructuring and special situations, spinoffs, shorting, Futures and options, charting, etc. etc.) As we have learnt we need to know what works for us -individually. This individual formula is a complex residual of what we have learnt, how we have reacted in the past, our successes and failures, our psychological makeup etc. etc. It’s also a never ending process of becoming a good investor. Here the issues discussed are being mixed with ideology (what is a successful investment for me and what has worked for me) and personal opinions. There are class investors who have specialized and excelled in a particular process. E.g. Soros(fx), Jim Rogers (commodities), etc. Everyone is entitled to finding his own groove, method, philosophy and process. That does not mean that is the only method or that his or her method is superior or inferior. We have to respect this diversity. This forum is a big success because it allows multitude of opinions and learning’s to be expressed. Let’s not harm this. If someone does not understand or disagrees with an opinion – the right processes has to be - bring depth of argument and explanation to defends one’s rational. This would allow more people to learn, think differently and ourselves also to articulate our own methods. On a softer note, I was seeing Chakde India and the first half reminded me of this internal infighting – the good news is in Chakde – in the second half - the purpose wins, the team wins and individually the players win. So chill! & Chakde TED!
------------- "Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 3:23pm
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Take a 5 year view Vivek - that is more helpful.Fertilizers in 15 years have barely doubled or tripled. We are not in the markets to do that. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:16pm
| basant sir, i am not against anything, thats all what i intend to say. All i intend to say is that, what has not happened in the past doesnt mean it cant happen in future. kindly, take my post in right perspective. at times, if a thing is very cheap then we should overlook certain things. Chambal was at 32 and it was paying 1.80 as dividend...that was too much, and all the negatives was there in that at that price. These companies are churning huge huge amounts of money. Look at GE shipping....eps of 27 rupees in a quarter and such lovely dividends. Cement is really turning it on. Prism has been quite wonderful for me and I made a three timer in a small span of time there. Its true, they are meant for patient investors but they are meant for some people, is all i want to say |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:17pm
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It’s also a never ending process of becoming a good investor.
--------------------------------------------
Chak De!!! Deepinsight....good points. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:19pm
| Also, am quite baffled with this appeasement unnecessarily. We are emotional about our stocks all right but we are not street fighters. If there's an argument, let it follow....why throw cold waters on something which helps us in improving our perspective. I am really thankful to Prosperity for starting this thread. It helps in settling issues and clearing point of views |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 4:42pm
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But why are we emotional about our stocks? It is not us or our kin who are being criticized. We are not promoters of these companies. As an individual, we probably hold 0.0001% of the total stock - we are a nobody!
I would actually like it if somebody critizes/finds holes/trashes the stocks I pick. It will help me decide on the portfolio allocation for each stock.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:03pm
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It helps in settling issues ...
_________________________________________________
Prosperity did not start this thread I moved the posts to a new thread and not sure about what issues you are referring to ?
 . Have you ever looked at a MF for investing? No I am not trying to suggest that you are inferior to those guys are anything but on my excel sheet I have a table which helps me compare myself with the top MF every six months.
The moment I feel that those guys are doing it beter then me I will not wait to send them over a cheque for my ENTIRE portfolio!
Just because I can analyse some stocks and have read some books and can moderate on a forum does not mean I will use my emotion to get in between me and my wealth.
Investing is a continuous process and while you may debate with a growth style the bottomline is we all want to make money rather then show knowledge. Reliance Growth fund has been up some 30 times in the last 12 years and Reliance Vision and Franklin prima have been up 20 times.
Have the basket of paper, cyclical, steel, cement and other commodity stocks done that? I would be happy to know if they have. Not an odd one but the whole portfolio.If they have then I would have to be corrected.
Let us not get into a 3 month view but take a longer term view.
I am not comparing these stocks to the ones I own but to those that are managed by MF managers.  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:14pm
Amen Deep Insight. Chakde!!! And I don’t know why controversy this about cyclicals…. Markets themselves are based on cycles (Bull markets and bear markets) 24 hours is made of cycles (12 hours day and 12 hours night) Humans are made of cycles (bad emotional make up and good emotional makeup. Crying and laughing) Importantly………. 1) Media stocks = A direct play on the stock market cycle as one will see an increase in viewer ship in bull markets and vice versa. 2) Retail & other Fancy stocks = Direct play on employment growth in an economy, based on classical economic GDP cycles. 3) Internet Stocks = Based on human (user) preference cycles.
I don’t think anyone can deny cycles on earth and markets, how hard they try. Cycles are undeniable. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: ndzapak
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:26pm
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The fact that Basantjee has started a forum means that he wants a healthy discussion on all aspects of investing. Now we cannot put the onus on Basantjee for discussing everything , we are also members on this forum and can discuss about anything we feel passionate or knowledgeable about. - be it commodities, cyclicals or any other thing. If Basantjee had wanted only his opinions to be expressed, then TED would not have been what it is today, it would have been just another blogspot where people post only what they want. ------------- the Equitydesk is the best |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 5:42pm
But customers wouldn't know the difference between Steel manufactured by Tata & SAIL, or cement manufacured by ACC and Guj Amb or goods transported by Essar Shipping and GE Shipping.
Does this count for anything?
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 7:54pm
| Basant Sir, Mohnish Pobrai made money in Frontline, which is into Tankers perhaps the riskiest area in shipping business where rates move like hell....even Mr. Jhunjhunwala speaks so highly for Ge Shippingif my cousin is to be beleived and he himself admits of having made a very big amount in it initially.....even some of the people on equitydesk have made a begining in GE shipping and have been successful.....and for me the biggest example has been my dad...he made a 60 bagger in Gujarat NRE Coke in less than 3 year period....he is sitting on a 150 bagger in shree cements......as far as GE Shipping goes he is sitting on a neat 23 timer ignoring dividends....as far as MF goes, I think I am not comparable with him because I am very strictly mandated not to sell within a year as that would attract STCG and as such i have to look for permanent variables like dividend....thats how I am being taught and mandated....and also, in stock markets measuring performance on historical basis is almost foolish. I started with 5000 and after paying off my MBA fees I still had about a lac in my kitty and a few stocks....for me that was substantial at that moment.....but that was the grace of that period and I dont take credit for that as markets were really good during that period. I made a 8 timer in OBC and made another 8 bagger in SRF....but then after that my performance plateaued and now it has started to pick up again......and I have done well when I personally dont have any experience about bear markets and I know very well that I will be hit hard in a correction and although I have fenced myself quite well so far but thats no guarantee. I am not into this superiority or inferiority business...and even if I may do poorly vis-a-vis a fund manager I will never give a single penny to him. I think this markets is for people who invest their hard earned and if someone is so smart that he thinks he knows it all why doesnt he borrow and invests...why to be so charitable on me. And yes, i am sorry for giving credit to Prosperity for this thread and i must thank you for starting this thread. Issues meant talking about cylicals. see, you will always be ahead of me as you have that experience of that crash which I dont have....so if someone benchmarks me against you I think its being unfair to me. But I want to learn by myself and want to have my mind and would like a very healthy discussion where how much money one has made should not be the criteria for determing the success rate. Rather a place where discussion should rise above profits/losses.... for its too fleeting a thing to talk about. |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 7:54pm
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Wow, So much of a discussion on this topic !! Let me add my few cents.
TED is the goldmine I discovered sometime last year (it was quite late then ) and probably if I would have discovered it little at the time of crash my returns would have increased significantly. I have learned a lot from TED and I will always remain thankful to Basantjee for clearing my doubts, making me an informed investor, probably I have read all his posts since beginning.Apart from Basantjee , I am immensely impressed by some of the TEDDIES who has helped me directly or indirectly.I thank TED for all that I could gain since I joined, its not only the appreciation of the stock prices but the entire process of investment I would rather say.
Now coming to the emotional parts on the stocks
I think the purpose of this forum is to discuss ideas and create wealth for ourselves irrespective it is a Media/Commodity or Retail. We have discussed some ideas based on dividends also, though I dont like or dislike everything that is being discussed on the sector/stocks it doesnt matter and people should not be very emotional related to this.
Every person has got his own investing style and Basantjee has permitted us to float and discuss our ideas freely, so if someone is interested in commodities so create a new thread and discuss , its very simple.
What I would say is dont fall in love with the companies and dont fight over the stocks with each other, lets work together for the benefit of all.
I have made money in Coke, Steel, Sugar stks and hotels and I do not hesitate to add a stk to my portfolio if I find its going to create wealth for me irrespective of whether it is commodity or cyclicals or whatever...Every person has its own investing style and preferences and we must respect the individuality.
I think TED is doing a gr8 job and I wish TEDDies all the best to keep up the good work !! ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 9:55pm
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Hey, how did I miss this very interesing discussion, enjoyed it throughly, it is rare that one gets to see such a strongly diversified opinion on TED, My view of this whole issue - Before I joined TED, I did not hold any major holdings in equity desk IX stocks and the same story continues today ,since my stock holdings are quite different from these stocks. Having said that (how everyone connected to the stock market loves this term!) I have enjoyed everybit of my stay on TED and have learnt a lot from this forum and have enjoyed it throughly. I have found a lot of expertise in various sectors , which makes it different from the "Buy this today, sell this tomorrow ' kind of messages on sees on some other messag board.
My CAT sense tells me that TED will be still around and blooming even when Aisha's beautiful grand -daughter will the anchoring CNBC!! Cheers!!! ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 10:37pm
I call it the CAT Scan.
 |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 4:27pm
| Hey prosperity, although am yet to meet you or know you personally but can imagine you jumping and pumping and having high fives and what have you....your cyclicals are really turning it on. Look at Tata Steel, Sesa, sterlite....all have started to perform......even the dogs are lloyds and ispats are doing their bit and today even the super dog of the dog called hindalco has managed to raise its head......woowwwww and congratulations!!!!!. By the way, were you also upbeat on fertiliser?????? |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 4:33pm
| Those who see the glass half-empty might see this as a sureshot signal that the market is 'overvalued' or in a state of 'irrational exuberance'. |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 4:40pm
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Will you be kind enough to explain this statement of yours, Smartcat Sir????? "Thse who see the glass half-empty might see this as a sureshot signal that the market is 'overvalued' or in a state of 'irrational exuberance'. "smartcat
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 4:57pm
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Oh nothing important. When the super dog of the index like Hindalco starts moving northwards, the bears might start making some assumptions and try to short the market.
I am not a bear right now because I am greedy for more.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 6:22pm
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okay......I was thinking of something amiss. Actually I have got so much sick about this exuberance related stuff that nowadays I simply dont care....there's simply no point in listening to those who are paid for speaking like stocks editor( though udayan is very different from the crap) or a analyst or a broker. IMO, one has to be focussed on individual stocks without any biases wrt to the markets, cyclicality, volatility, rate sensitivity etc etc.....just to imagine what price a stock will be after a year is an utter foolish exercise for no GOD can figure that out.....as investors, we should try to limit downside for thats the only thing we can do, and leave the rest for the market to decide....
Actually, I just wanted to use this post just to highlight that cyclicals are not all that bad as they are made out to be. No one has even talked a word about tisco and we talk so much for the dish, suzlon, opto and nucleus. Cylicality is not the only risk that affects business. So, if we look at business risk holistically, we can arrive at better results......
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 8:25pm
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I am THE cyclical bad guy on TED .. But Thanks for remembering me Vivek !
Felt nice ..
In Hindustan Zinc, Tisco, India Cements and Tata Motors - THE BEST IS YET TO COME !! These are the cyclicals i hold and i still see lot of stock's undervaluation in each of them ....
I dont understand I.T, fertiliser, sugar, oil & gas, textiles and FMCG sectors, and hence i always have been running away from them..
Cheers !
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 11:21pm
| Anyone who has been bullish on cyclicals must have made tonnes in this current rally.....and now its our time to party, so why shall we feel bad....we dont need any guidance regarding whats good and whats bad and all those crap....we are doing great and thats all it should matter to us......let people keep their biases why shall we bother???????? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:14pm
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Vivek, while I can understand your emotion let me urge you not to use words like "crap". I need not tell you that I can understand what is being directed at whom!
I would not get into any more detail. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 12:14pm
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BSE Metal Index does not capture all the commodities - so it is not possible to compare the performance of commodities vs non-commodities. However, looking at the performance of http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=2812 - SBI Magnum COMMA fund , one can get a rough idea about how cyclicals are doing.
I know an actively managed mutual fund is not the correct way to compare, but this is the best we've got.
You don't understand FMCG?
- Make some soap
- Wrap it up in some colourful paper.
- Sell it at local store at a price which is more than the cost price.
- Find a hot looking young girl and get her to dance wearing skimpy clothes under a waterfall (advertising)
It is quite simple really.
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Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 8:31am
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Well, i rephrase myself -
I understand, but dont like these sectors financially !
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 8:39am
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Basant Sir, I never direct it to anyone personally. It was an issue and I spoke for it, thats it. As far as crap word is concerned, I do agree it was used a bit wrongly. All i intended to say that all have their ways and the way everyone responds if we talk about Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc etc. makes a person feel as if he has started a fight or what. So, tolerance has to be exercised from either side. This is stock market and everyone will have a issue or a grudge or a bloated ego, and we cannot help it. I might have given the impression that I have made a ridicule at some members and to which after having gone through my post, I also agree for that appears to be the case. However, No One Can continue to ever Ridicule In This Market....the market teaches everyone the lesson and especially to those who think of themselves as superior to it. I was woefully wrong in Educomp and which I always keep at the back of my head. So, impression may have been given yet it was none of my intention because No One and not even Lord Almighty knows what wll do well in the next 2-3 years.
and by the way, every business goes through cycles. No body could ever imagine what IT is going through. business Cycles are very hard to predict and business risk estimation is so very difficult. And in this regard, I still feel prosperity is right in claiming that TED is biased against cyclicals. I tender no apology in standing by Prosperity's observations.
Also, I would like to request the admin to expunge the term crap or the entire post of mine if thats appropriate...creates unnecessary confusion and takes the debate to a personal level.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 10:44am
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I did not write this all this while but today I want to put this up. If TED is not an ideal platform to have a balanced discussion then there is no invitation to log in! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2007 at 3:58pm
| No issues Basant sir.... |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2007 at 7:26pm
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basantji, been reading up on teledata on moneycontrol. as many good reviews as the bad ones. just what does one really make of this company? am not planning to pick up any stocks, but just asking.... also should one sell ICICI Bank at around Rs 1150 or so? I picked up quite a bit at around Rs 820. Was thinking abt cashing it out and waiting for the market to fall before buying Yes Bank. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2007 at 9:57pm
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I do not time markets because finally it gets me in. No idea on Teledata. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |