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Crude & Agri commodities
The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times :Crude & Agri commodities

Topic: Life with crude at US $100 and above!!!

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Ajith Senior Member Joined: 06/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 1284	Posted: 06/Sep/2006 at 9:31pm
	Today I read in yesterdays FE about new and effective 3D imaging exploration technolgy for normal and difficult-to-locate oil .Maybe long-term bearish for oil? Edited by Ajith - 06/Sep/2006 at 10:12pm
	Ajith
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BubbleVision Senior Member Joined: 05/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 3142	Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 3:09pm
	Here they come...... Some hedge fund managers say they can't take any more losses. Ospraie Management LLC, run by Dwight Anderson, liquidated the $250 million Ospraie Point Fund that fell 29 percent in the first five months of the year, in part because of wrong-way bets against commodity prices. MotherRock LP, the hedge fund run by former New York Mercantile Exchange President Robert ``Bo'' Collins, told investors last month he planned to shut down because of a ``terrible performance'' as natural gas prices sank. Collins didn't return messages left at his office and on his mobile telephone for comment.
	You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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BubbleVision Senior Member Joined: 05/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 3142	Posted: 14/Sep/2006 at 12:21pm
	Big Picture view on CRUDE..... The media has been all buzz declaring the death of the Crude bull, which has been on since 2002. Yes i would agree that this is the biggest fall in the prices ($16) in the last 16 years... but when we look at the %ages we get to know the clear picture.... The Crude fall in the last few days have shaken many of the long term crude bulls so i would like to throw some light on the path of crude oil since the rally began in 2002 at $19.00 - $20.00 level. It has had Three corrections bigger then the current one [(Mar-May-2003 Down 37.4%), (Nov-Dec-2005 Down 27.7%), (Sept-Nov 2005 Down 21.4%)]. The current fall is 17.2% so far. So we think that it would be premature to declare the bull market DEAD just yet. The biggest fall in price terms came in 1990, when the crude fell from $40.00 to $16.00 ... That is a fall of $24.00. The current fall is $78.xx to $63.xx which is $15.00.
	You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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reetesh Senior Member Joined: 01/Sep/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 793	Posted: 14/Sep/2006 at 7:16pm
	Investment Gurus say 50% corerection can happen in bull market.
	When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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BubbleVision Senior Member Joined: 05/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 3142	Posted: 14/Sep/2006 at 8:14pm
	Reetesh ... actually the number is 20% from the top and the bull market is declated dead. But these things dont exactly apply to commosities as Gold In 1974-75 dipped 50% from the top and continued with its bull run.. The sequence should make this clear 1970 Gold Was $35 per ounce 1974 Gold was $200 per ounce 1976 Gold was $100 per ounce 1980 Gold was $800 per ounce Actually the bull continued from $35 To $800, But had a setback of 50% from the top in the middle 50% and 61.8% Retracements happen of a move... Example Gold would be $35 to $200 = Total Move = $165. Now there could be a retracements of 50% or 61.8% of $165 Generally commodities as an asset class display more volatility so Wave overlaps are allowed. However the bull in Stocks is declared Dead when there is a fall of 20% from the top. These are generally rules.. They need not necessarily apply.
	You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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BubbleVision Senior Member Joined: 05/Aug/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 3142	Posted: 18/Sep/2006 at 6:45pm
	And Now here they come Calls for a $15 Crude http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003257679_oilconsumers14.html
	You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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kulman Senior Member Joined: 02/Sep/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 9319	Posted: 18/Sep/2006 at 6:56pm
	Does it mean BubbleVision that "terror/weather premium" on futures was as high as US$30/35? Fresh shorts can take the markets to any bottom.....
	Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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reetesh Senior Member Joined: 01/Sep/2006 Location: India Online Status: Offline Posts: 793	Posted: 18/Sep/2006 at 7:22pm
	No, bubble vision, I dont know(Frankly I know but I`ll not repeat my mistake) where did you get this 20% from, but what ever I read and heard market guru saying is 30% to 40% is normal bull market correction and it can go down to 50% in abnormal conditions. Reetesh.
	When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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