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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: TheEquityDeskReportCard March 2009
    Posted: 05/Apr/2009 at 9:05pm
Dear Investors,
 
The present times can be looked at in two ways a) Challenging and b) Opportunistic. I prefer to look at them as being full of opportunities. These are the times that investors love to cling on to buying companies when no one wants them and maybe who knows after a few years he would live to tell a tale of how he bought companies when the markets were bruised and battered and no one wanted a slice of the pie.

 

Though there is nothing unusual about what I said above the point is no one wants to buy when everyone wants to sell and no one wants to sell when everyone wants to buy. It might appears a classic "greed and fear" analogy but the crux of the matter is we need to be buying stocks when people are abandoning them at the streestside.

 

Personally I never recommend holding  more then 5 stocks while for the last few months I have personally held two but the sheer scale of opportunity today suggests that I might just have to go to the limit of the number five  but the problem with more then five is you do not seem to have bet enough but in times like these where there is so much of an opportunity everywhere I think holding five stocks isn’t a bad deal because as the stories start developing you could sell the ones that have run ahead to consolidate in the ones that are left behind.

 

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain (Loss)

 

Date

Price

Price

Absolute %

Crisil

2-Aug-06

1550

2830

82.58

ONGC

25-Nov-06

530

870

64.15

Everest Kanto

8-Sep-06

80

130

62.50

Bharti  Airtel 

24-Aug-06

407

638

56.76

Jain Irrigation

13-Aug-06

249

386

55.02

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

1041

49.35

GBN

9-Jan-07

50

74

48.00

Mc Dowell

18-Jul-06

490

694

41.63

Infoedge

19-Oct-06

320

448

40.00

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

1245

1576

26.59

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

162

18.25

Sun Pharmaceuticals

25-Sep-06

930

1068

14.84

L&T

6-Sep-06

639

717

12.21

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

814

8.68

Kotak Bank

27-Sep-06

314

340

8.28

Nestle

31-Mar-08

1490

1589

6.64

Indraprastha Gas

1-Sep-06

117

110

-5.98

Shanti Gears

20-Sep-06

64

60

-6.25

Marico

15-Mar-08

63

59

-6.35

Monsanto

21-Sep-06

1488

1317

-11.49

Infosys

19-Jul-06

1612

1419

-11.97

Dabur

18-Dec-07

116

96

-17.24

IDFC

17-Nov-06

78

63

-19.23

Tata Tea

15-Nov-07

750

591

-21.20

ICICI Bank

20-Jul-06

467

360

-22.91

Pantaloon Retail

26-Jul-06

225

168

-25.33

Geodesic

17-Oct-06

90

66

-26.67

TV 18

20-Jul-06

101

74

-26.73

Tata Investments

8-Aug-06

337

243

-27.89

Kohinoor Foods

30-Aug-06

78

53

-32.05

Opto Circuits

26-Oct-06

184

121

-34.24

ENIL

23-Jul-06

186

121

-34.95

IndiaBulls

13-Nov-06

142

92

-35.21

Amarraja Batteries

15-Aug-06

66.4

40

-39.76

Axis Bank

21-Oct-07

735

439

-40.27

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

53

-40.45

Aditya Birla Nuvo

10-Sep-06

836

461

-44.86

Havells

30-Aug-06

285

155

-45.61

Financial Technologies 

26-Aug-06

1252

680

-45.69

Max India

5-Sep-07

202

104

-48.51

ICRA

25-Oct-07

960

480

-50.00

Trent

2-Aug-06

715

332

-53.57

J & K Bank

23-Sep-07

710

328

-53.80

Adlabs

2-Jan-07

430

198

-53.95

SKF India

16-Feb-08

358

159

-55.59

Reliance Capital

3-Jun-07

972

412

-57.61

Maharashtra Seamless

22-Aug-06

365

151

-58.63

Zicom ELectronics

16-Aug-06

185

70

-62.16

Indian Hotels

7-Aug-06

116

43

-62.93

India Infoline

25-Nov-07

200

65

-67.50

Network18

20-Jul-06

238

77

-67.65

PVR

1-Oct-06

255

70

-72.55

Sintex

15-Feb-08

448

115

-74.33

Moser Baer

15-Jan-07

220

55

-75.00

Dish-  TV

18-Apr-07

103

25

-75.73

Inox Leisure

2-Aug-06

125

30

-76.00

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

52

-76.36

Suzlon Energy

28-Aug-06

242

51

-78.93

Edelweiss Capital

15-Nov-07

1400

271

-80.64

Bharti Shipyard

17-Sep-06

337

64

-81.01

LMW!

14-Jul-07

2930

543

-81.47

Nucleus Software

8-Jan-07

351

59

-83.19

Nitco Tiles

28-Aug-06

169

28

-83.43

Vimta Laboratories

3-Sep-06

159

20

-87.42

Champagne Indage

7-Aug-07

690

51

-92.61

Stocks in red belong to the TED XI

 

These are really interesting times to be living in and investors can bet on several companies which are leaders within their own industrial segments available at less then 5 times ex-cash, efficient users of capital with a potential to participate in the next economic upturn.

 

Regards,

 

Basant



Edited by basant - 05/Apr/2009 at 9:08pm
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catcall
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Quote catcall Replybullet Posted: 05/Apr/2009 at 9:20pm
Basantji, have you worked out the TEDEX return on the recommended stocks (something of an average return assuming equal investments in the recommended stocks?)
There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing!
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DHIRAJKANT
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Quote DHIRAJKANT Replybullet Posted: 05/Apr/2009 at 11:35pm
Basant ji,
i have l &t, opto & suzlon from given above list.
is voltas multibagger stock?
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 05/Apr/2009 at 7:50am
No, I have not done that point to point computation but it should also be down by around 60%-70% from the highs.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 05/Apr/2009 at 8:06am
Nice to see ONGC so high in the list......although, I think none of the stocks have prices of last day of march. The performance has been artificially helped by this "bear market rally"( not my opinion as  i have no clue what kind of rally it actually is) in the first week of April.Wink
 
Also, Opto's CMP is not 121.....
 
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Quote apoorv Replybullet Posted: 07/May/2009 at 10:56pm

I think there is a way to embed hyperlink for the current market prices --that way CMP will always reflect the latest price.Let me look for it and I will share it with board. 

Money attracts everything including more Money.
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Quote vishnu1975 Replybullet Posted: 11/May/2009 at 1:23pm
Originally posted by manish_okhade

Basantji,
 
It would be real insight for future investment if you can provide the info that in say last 10 or 15 yrs when Bull Mkt has started and what were the triggers and why it busted. If we see any cycle then there's a reason to cheer for future.
 
Well above is not to extrapolate any relationship but to get comfort that bear run also passes away.
 
Basantji, I can say that India opening up the economy was the key with attention drawn to huge consumer base in india for MNCs to enter plus also the talent pool in india at low cost which indian companies used well to achieve the growth and hence FII invested and hence the bull markets, which would have defintely continued for more than a decade even now, but for the sub-prime bubble.
 
Hence fundamentals remain the same, it will only take a while before we put this bear phase behind.
 
They also say that the world economy needs to find new set of products and new set of consumers for those products, to drive any new huge rally, So enabling the less fortunate ones holds another key, which can happen with strong govt policies in favour of them and also some innovative products hitting the consumers.


Edited by vishnu1975 - 11/May/2009 at 1:25pm
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Quote rajsharma Replybullet Posted: 21/May/2009 at 12:17pm
Hi Everybody,
 
          I am a new member of TED and have been looking at some of the forums quite closely. I have tried to extend the list prepared by Basant after the current rally. Many of the stocks have moved to positive returns and also others have cut their losses. Over a period of time I have come to a conclusion that the following always helps:
 
1. Never invest more than 75%. Vary your investment based on the pessimism and optimism in the market. 75% invested when there is extreme pessimism and 25% when there is extreme optimism. ----This is from Graham's book not mine :)
 
2. Stagger your investment and buy slowly. If you are convinced about the story keep averaging at regular intervals. My thumb rule is at every 20% fall.
 
3. Believe in India story. This is a nation which has to grow. Hence any company which has a good management with vision will be able to grow the company.
 
By the way the chart is below, which have the latest prices and current gain and loss.
 
Regards,
Raj
Company
Recm Recm Current  Price on Gain (Loss) Gain (Loss) %
  Date Price Price 21st May Absolute % 21st May
Everest Kanto 08-Sep-06 80 180 173 125 116.25%
GBN 09-Jan-07 50 96 127 92 154.00%
Mc Dowell 18-Jul-06 490 884 831 80.41 69.59%
Bharti  Airtel  24-Aug-06 407 720 851 76.9 109.09%
Crisil 02-Aug-06 1550 2454 3067 58.32 97.87%
HDFC Bank 20-Jul-06 697 998 1371 43.19 96.70%
Jain Irrigation 13-Aug-06 249 350 576 40.56 131.33%
ONGC 25-Nov-05 530 680 1075 28.3 102.83%
Infoedge 19-Oct-06 320 409 675 27.81 110.94%
Titan Industries  18-Aug-06 749 926 1078 23.63 43.93%
L&T 06-Sep-06 639 773 1240 20.97 94.05%
HDFC, 05-Aug-06 1245 1486 1370 19.36 10.04%
Sun Pharmaceuticals 25-Sep-06 930 1064 1270 14.41 36.56%
Kohinoor Foods 30-Aug-06 78 89 57 14.1 -26.92%
Kotak Bank 27-Sep-06 314 357 617 13.69 96.50%
Blue Star 06-Oct-06 137 152 267 10.95 94.89%
Nestle 31-Mar-08 1490 1454 1676 -2.42 12.48%
Pantaloon Retail 26-Jul-06 225 217 298 -3.56 32.44%
ICICI Bank 20-Jul-06 467 448 672 -4.07 43.90%
IndiaBulls  13-Nov-06 142 133 177 -6.34 24.65%
TV 18 20-Jul-06 101 91 131 -9.9 29.70%
Marico 15-Mar-08 63 55 64 -12.7 1.59%
Indraprastha Gas 01-Sep-06 117 102 138 -12.82 17.95%
IDFC 17-Nov-06 78 67 119 -14.1 52.56%
ENIL 23-Jul-06 186 152 209 -18.28 12.37%
Tata Tea 15-Nov-07 750 602 695 -19.73 -7.33%
Yes Bank 01-Sep-06 89 71 124 -20.22 39.33%
Monsanto 21-Sep-06 1488 1181 1662 -20.63 11.69%
Geodesic 17-Oct-06 90 70 102 -22.22 13.33%
Dabur  18-Dec-07 116 84 112 -27.59 -3.45%
Amarraja Batteries 15-Aug-06 66.4 48 80 -27.71 20.48%
Infosys 19-Jul-06 1612 1115 1502 -30.83 -6.82%
Aditya Birla Nuvo  10-Sep-06 836 574 766 -31.34 -8.37%
Axis Bank  21-Oct-07 735 504 735 -31.43 0.00%
Tata Investments 08-Aug-06 337 217 415 -35.61 23.15%
Trent 02-Aug-06 715 443 448 -38.04 -37.34%
Zicom ELectronics 16-Aug-06 185 104 89 -43.78 -51.89%
Reliance Capital  03-Jun-07 972 541 857 -44.34 -11.83%
Max India 05-Sep-07 202 112 177 -44.55 -12.38%
Shanti Gears 20-Sep-06 64 34 39 -46.88 -39.06%
Opto Circuits 26-Oct-06 184 94 157 -48.91 -14.67%
J & K Bank  23-Sep-07 710 355 464 -50 -34.65%
ICRA 25-Oct-07 960 438 743 -54.38 -22.60%
Adlabs 02-Jan-07 430 187 333 -56.51 -22.56%
Havells 30-Aug-06 285 122 263 -57.19 -7.72%
Network18 20-Jul-06 238 100 114 -57.98 -52.10%
Sintex 15-Feb-08 448 188 210 -58.04 -53.13%
Maharashtra Seamless 22-Aug-06 365 148 247 -59.45 -32.33%
Financial Technologies   26-Aug-06 1252 496 1226 -60.38 -2.08%
PVR 01-Oct-06 255 99 108 -61.18 -57.65%
Indian Hotels 07-Aug-06 116 45 66 -61.21 -43.10%
SKF India 16-Feb-08 358 134 201 -62.57 -43.85%
Moser Baer 15-Jan-07 220 71 81 -67.73 -63.18%
Voltas 28-Jan-08 220 60 91 -72.73 -58.64%
India Infoline  25-Nov-07 200 53 144 -73.5 -28.00%
Suzlon Energy 28-Aug-06 242 63 90 -73.97 -62.81%
Inox Leisure 02-Aug-06 125 32 54 -74.4 -56.80%
Bharti Shipyard 17-Sep-06 337 76 141 -77.45 -58.16%
LMW! 14-Jul-07 2930 630 834 -78.5 -71.54%
Nitco Tiles 28-Aug-06 169 36 44 -78.7 -73.96%
Edelweiss Capital  15-Nov-07 1400 284 458 -79.71 -67.29%
Dish-  TV 18-Apr-07 103 20 40 -80.58 -61.17%
Vimta Laboratories 03-Sep-06 159 25 30 -84.28 -81.13%
Champagne Indage 07-Aug-07 690 103 74 -85.07 -89.28%
Nucleus Software 08-Jan-07 351 46 75 -86.89
-78.63%
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