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Identifying Multibaggers
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Identifying Multibaggers
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: TheEquityDeskReportCard Dec 2008
    Posted: 02/Jan/2009 at 5:42am

Dear Investors,

 

I think the biggest test for a bull is to survive when the indices go down more then 50%. This is exactly what happened in 2008. Inspite of all the (wrong) calls that we made stocks kept tumbling down to such an extent that at one point in time even I thought whether it was worth all the pain.

 

However in my limited history of investing I have learnt that stock market investing is not about getting out when the going is bad and getting in when the going is good. It looks good on paper and never seems to come out of it into the actual world. Anyone who has been consistently investing for 20 years has made tremendous money more then any general business could or for that matter any job.

 

In times like these it is better to knock off a greater proportion of risk from the portfolio and stick to large established names till one gets a chance to punt on a stronger mid/small cap theme. Just buying a company based out of its market cap will get you nowhere. That is because finally stock prices are slaves to earnings and not to market cap.

 

So my strategy has kind of changed over the last few months. I am looking more at the larger capitalised companies rather then blindly buying hope (companies with small market cap and no/unpredictable earnings).

 

Whatever be the style the objective is that the stocks which I buy should increase in value (value is different from price) either through increasing EPS or otherwise. If EPS keeps on rising at a stable rate then there would be a commensurate price movement. It becomes just a waiting game then.

 

The Equity Desk XI which was loaded with financials and midcaps has suffered as much as the sensex but when markets fall everything gets butchered the distinction if ant\y will be made on recovery.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain (Loss)

 

Date

Price

Price

Absolute %

Everest Kanto

8-Sep-06

80

180

125.00

GBN

9-Jan-07

50

96

92.00

Mc Dowell

18-Jul-06

490

884

80.41

Bharti  Airtel 

24-Aug-06

407

720

76.90

Crisil

2-Aug-06

1550

2454

58.32

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

998

43.19

Jain Irrigation

13-Aug-06

249

350

40.56

ONGC

25-Nov-05

530

680

28.30

Infoedge

19-Oct-06

320

409

27.81

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

926

23.63

L&T

6-Sep-06

639

773

20.97

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

1245

1486

19.36

Sun Pharmaceuticals

25-Sep-06

930

1064

14.41

Kohinoor Foods

30-Aug-06

78

89

14.10

Kotak Bank

27-Sep-06

314

357

13.69

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

152

10.95

Nestle

31-Mar-08

1490

1454

-2.42

Pantaloon Retail

26-Jul-06

225

217

-3.56

ICICI Bank

20-Jul-06

467

448

-4.07

IndiaBulls

13-Nov-06

142

133

-6.34

TV 18

20-Jul-06

101

91

-9.90

Marico

15-Mar-08

63

55

-12.70

Indraprastha Gas

1-Sep-06

117

102

-12.82

IDFC

17-Nov-06

78

67

-14.10

ENIL

23-Jul-06

186

152

-18.28

Tata Tea

15-Nov-07

750

602

-19.73

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

71

-20.22

Monsanto

21-Sep-06

1488

1181

-20.63

Geodesic

17-Oct-06

90

70

-22.22

Dabur

18-Dec-07

116

84

-27.59

Amarraja Batteries

15-Aug-06

66.4

48

-27.71

Infosys

19-Jul-06

1612

1115

-30.83

Aditya Birla Nuvo

10-Sep-06

836

574

-31.34

Axis Bank

21-Oct-07

735

504

-31.43

Tata Investments

8-Aug-06

337

217

-35.61

Trent

2-Aug-06

715

443

-38.04

Zicom ELectronics

16-Aug-06

185

104

-43.78

Reliance Capital

3-Jun-07

972

541

-44.34

Max India

5-Sep-07

202

112

-44.55

Shanti Gears

20-Sep-06

64

34

-46.88

Opto Circuits

26-Oct-06

184

94

-48.91

J & K Bank

23-Sep-07

710

355

-50.00

ICRA

25-Oct-07

960

438

-54.38

Adlabs

2-Jan-07

430

187

-56.51

Havells

30-Aug-06

285

122

-57.19

Network18

20-Jul-06

238

100

-57.98

Sintex

15-Feb-08

448

188

-58.04

Maharashtra Seamless

22-Aug-06

365

148

-59.45

Financial Technologies 

26-Aug-06

1252

496

-60.38

PVR

1-Oct-06

255

99

-61.18

Indian Hotels

7-Aug-06

116

45

-61.21

SKF India

16-Feb-08

358

134

-62.57

Moser Baer

15-Jan-07

220

71

-67.73

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

60

-72.73

India Infoline

25-Nov-07

200

53

-73.50

Suzlon Energy

28-Aug-06

242

63

-73.97

Inox Leisure

2-Aug-06

125

32

-74.40

Bharti Shipyard

17-Sep-06

337

76

-77.45

LMW!

14-Jul-07

2930

630

-78.50

Nitco Tiles

28-Aug-06

169

36

-78.70

Edelweiss Capital

15-Nov-07

1400

284

-79.71

Dish-  TV

18-Apr-07

103

20

-80.58

Vimta Laboratories

3-Sep-06

159

25

-84.28

Champagne Indage

7-Aug-07

690

103

-85.07

Nucleus Software

8-Jan-07

351

46

-86.89

 

 

Regards,

 

Basant Maheshwari

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2009 at 7:25am
Just a question......has the bonuses of opto been factored in?
Jai Guru!!!
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2009 at 9:20am

Yes, from what I have managed to track.

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote Subhankar Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2009 at 7:10pm
Hi Basant

From the Report Card list of the stocks that have lost more than 50% in value, which are the stocks that you feel will bounce back over the next couple of years to regain their recommended price or go even higher?

Just want your opinion - I know it may be a difficult call.
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2009 at 7:26pm
Correction:
 
Zee News and Divis Labs are not included in the report card. Moser Baer is out of Emerging Companies and hence should be excluded from the list.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote tarkeshwar Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2009 at 8:08pm
This is a sad list!

Kudos to you for having the heart to track it!
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2009 at 8:43am
Originally posted by tarkeshwar

This is a sad list!

Kudos to you for having the heart to track it!
 
Thanks. Being in the markets for around 15 years  I have learnt to take the pain with the gain.Big%20smile
 
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2009 at 8:51am

Basant Sir, although the performance may not be that bad, but i believe it could have been much better..........

when you look back and see that some stocks, infact most of them, have been purchased 2 years back, it gives one a sense of dejection.
 
If I have to draw any lesson from looking at this, i would say, if you dont know to trade out your way, its becomes very difficult to make a cult for yourself.
Jai Guru!!!
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