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basant
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   Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 9:48pm |
Originally posted by kishantripura
Is it any good valuing the land owned by these companies? I mean, what are the chances of unlocking value from the land? They might find it very difficult to dispose the land that is surplus to their requirement. They definitely have some real estate goldmines where they have their corporate & regional & various other admin offices. But will they ever allowed to shift those offices by their union? Big big question. Unfortunately no answers. |
DO you think that the Govt. will ever allow these companies to sell off their land? This is close to impossible and land value means nothing from the market cap point of view.
Valuing these companies on land will happen only when they go in for liquidation - closure. Shall the Govt. ever allow this to happen?
Edited by basant - 31/Aug/2007 at 9:50pm
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CHINKI
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Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 3:20pm |
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First of all many of their offices are built/bought completely in company name.
It is not only office premises, but lands/sites of many of their outlets are owned by the company.
Per se, they will be holding lot of land (like Mcdonald). If somebody wants to start a company equivalent to BPCL, then they may take the actual land value.
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way.
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basant
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Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 4:46pm |
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way
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Last time the BJP wanted to privatise it but could not also there are too many variables in this equation. I would let Ajit Dayal keep this for his Quantum Equity fund - all that rationality and value has seen this stock go nowhere for the last 4 years whereas the index has gone up 5 times. The opportunity cost of being a value guy in stocks that are governed by Govt. policy (HP/BP/GAIL) are far too high. Let us buy a Reliance instead.
Edited by basant - 01/Sep/2007 at 5:07pm
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kulman
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Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 4:56pm |
Q.L.T.E.M.F. mein woh saahab ka khud ka paisa kaha laga hoga? Usme toh L.T.E.M.F. ke small investor ka paisa hoga. So this opportunity cost argument doesn't make sense from fund manager's point of view.
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karttikeya
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Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 7:58pm |
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Don't you think sir,these oil psu's have reached a point of "maximum pessimism" in vocabulary of Sir John Templeton.And this is pricisely the time when a true contrarian sould invest bravely in these stocks?
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mukesh
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basant
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Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 8:07pm |
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Sure but that is how they were a two years back! Question is to look at that catalyst (change) which would make these stocks non-value.
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ramki830
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Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 8:21pm |
Originally posted by basant
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way
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Last time the BJP wanted to privatise it but could not also there are too many variables in this equation. I would let Ajit Dayal keep this for his Quantum Equity fund - all that rationality and value has seen this stock go nowhere for the last 4 years whereas the index has gone up 5 times. The opportunity cost of being a value guy in stocks that are governed by Govt. policy (HP/BP/GAIL) are far too high. Let us buy a Reliance instead. |
Rightly said.. if a non left government (NDA) comes to power, they will surely sell off either BP or HP. So, if one can predict what kind of government will come to Delhi in next elections, he or she can bet on BP/HP. otherwise, these two are investment basket cases. I had exited these two stocks in 2004 and now look (with sadness) how badly these two businesses have been ruined by the government....
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CHINKI
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Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 10:32pm |
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Absolutely right. Infact I was told BPCL had their whole operations including Sales connected with SAP 4 years back. Sensing privatisation as well as RIL & Essar entering the marketing of Petroleum products, they had done their homework. But unfortunately privatisation did not happen.
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