Is worst over for BPCL/HPCL?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Comparing Stocks within the same sector
Forum Discription: Here we would discuss the various stocks that are available within the sector and provide insights on the better option.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=186
Printed Date: 05/May/2025 at 1:32pm
Topic: Is worst over for BPCL/HPCL?
Posted By: manishdave
Subject: Is worst over for BPCL/HPCL?
Date Posted: 17/Aug/2006 at 10:19pm
Now let me make it very clear. These are not stocks that you buy and hold for 10 years or even 5 years. But looks like good timing for T/O play.
We discussed these companies very recently but I cant find better timing to buy them. Indices went from 3000 to 11000 in 3-4 years and these stocks went nowhere. They have valuable assets. Two reason to buy them.
1. PM indicated that Govt. can not provide infinite subsidy.
2. housing mkt is already breaking down in US. And that is huge activity. Although growth in demand will continy from China/India - Slowdown in US should have some effect on oil prices even if temporary. After all US consumes 25% of energy. As Jim says every bull market has corrections.
If oil gets corrected somewhat these companies can move fast.
if not there is not much downside.
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Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Aug/2006 at 10:44pm
I agree with your opinion Just did a small analysis to check the downside and found it well protected. There are two things that catch a stock's downside
1) Book Value
2) Dividend Yield
While the dividend could vanish the sheer replacement cost of these companies is huge. Also with crazy things going in the market I am not sure if any analyst would start valuing these companies on the basis of the land that they hold.
The following snapshot of the two companies will make it clear.
Particulars |
HPCL |
BPCL |
C.M.P |
Rs 254.30 |
Rs 347.20 |
Market Capitalization |
Rs 8629 crores |
Rs 10,417 crores |
Book Value |
Rs 249.04 |
Rs 212.95 |
Dividend per share |
Rs 15.00 |
Rs 12.50 |
Dividend yield |
5.91% |
3.60% |
Price to book |
1.02 times |
1.63 |
Amidst all the talk about these companies going bankrupt I would think that political compulsions would not allow the Govt. to let these companies go bankrupt. Both HPCL and BPCL employ thousands of workers and with the red brigade behind the PM I am not sure if he could afford to let that happen. So worst come worst HPCL and BPCL will be compensated in what ever way possible either through oil bonds or anything else so as to keep the show running.
At this stage HPCL and BPCL are available at such cheap valuations that investors could consider buying them on leverage. The protected downside means that you would lose only the interest component and you could use your capital to buy other things which you think are attractive so even if these stocks do not move there would not be any real opportunity loss.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: sajanvm
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2006 at 5:41pm
Kochi Refineries will be merged into BPCL in a ratio of 4:9. At the current market price of 375 for BPCL, the equivalent price for Kochi shd be 167. Instead it quotes at a discount of 6-7% (Rs 155). Thus, if you believe BPCL is a deep value play, Kochi is an even safer way to buy BPCL.
------------- Sajan
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2006 at 5:44pm
A very piquant observation.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: ashwin.adsouza
Date Posted: 13/Sep/2006 at 1:22pm
Basantji, I think that you might have mistakenly interchanged the names of HPCL and BPCL in your message snapshot above.
How much land does these two PSUs own, that analyst might think to value them on their land basis? Do you mean by the land that the petrol pumps are located on?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Sep/2006 at 1:44pm
Oh yes. I have. Will have it changed.Looks like a serious typo. Funny no one pointed it out earlier.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 13/Sep/2006 at 2:50pm
One can look at my favourite IOC as well, one advantage with IOC is it is almost same business mix of retail and refinery, altought in short term IOC is at disvantage because of lower refinery maring but in long run this is better than HP/BP.
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 10:26pm
on a more broader note big oil may have already peaked at 75
although in the short run oil might rise above 60 oil majors today are
a worried lot chinas demand has now moderated and so has indias at the
same time new iol discovered will be coming to the mkt if there are no
geo politcal tensions and no large scale disruptions oil could see 40
in the long term if this happens then at least the subsidy burden
should be reduced drastically improving their balance sheet.on a
lighter note the word subsidy should be termed unparlimentary and any
poltician using should be disqualified it will do our country some
good.tigershark.pl read newsweek dated oct82006-is the oil boom over
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2007 at 7:11pm
Not much postings/observations on this topic.
Eventhough crude prices have come down from the higher level, the decrease in Petrol/Diesel prices to contain the inflation, will again hit the oil companies.
If you have to value these oil companies based on the land they hold, the assets they have in their balance sheet and big amount of investments & time required to develop a company of this magnitude ( the same reason why TATA paid more as per market feeling to buy Corus), these companies should be valued at higher prices.
Basanthji, does it make sense to buy any of these oil companies stocks now???
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2007 at 7:23pm
Crude is a commodity and hence is hated here!
Also if you have to go by land-bank, there might be plenty of other private companies which actually might be interested in selling their lands...Govt owned companies especially oil companies are far from taking such a step in the next 10-15 years unless u have Arun Shourie managing them!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2007 at 7:39pm
Originally posted by CHINKI
Not much postings/observations on this topic.
Eventhough crude prices have come down from the higher level, the decrease in Petrol/Diesel prices to contain the inflation, will again hit the oil companies.
If you have to value these oil companies based on the land they hold, the assets they have in their balance sheet and big amount of investments & time required to develop a company of this magnitude ( the same reason why TATA paid more as per market feeling to buy Corus), these companies should be valued at higher prices.
Basanthji, does it make sense to buy any of these oil companies stocks now??? |
That land bank connection appears very far fetched.Those petrol pumps will never be sold. also they are also dependent on what the Govt. does each time - which is the toughest thing to predict.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2007 at 4:59am
Jab rakshak hi bhakshak ho to, ye BPCL/HPCL kyo appreciate karega.
------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 01/Mar/2007 at 12:47pm
Basanthji,
Regarding Land Bank I agree with you. Because many of these lands may not be owned by company. They may be on lease or rent.
During next elections, if Congress gets majority on its own or if BJP comes to power, then these companies may look attractive. Am I right??
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Mar/2007 at 1:52pm
Yes but that carries a lot of unpredictability in terms of
1) Time - Next elections are in 2009
2) Whether any party would get majority
3) What mindset would these parties work with
4) Finally disinvestment is not the first thing any party would do when it gets into power
Better to be with predictable companies rather then unpredictable ones. There is almost little downside here though.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2007 at 2:12pm
I was working in one of these OIL companies earlier.
Knowing the potential of these companies, if they are let free, then these companies can overcome all these adversaries and perform extremely well.
I still remember when Shell and other MNCs came in LUBRICANTS sector during 90s, all these PSUs thought that their lubs will get sold on the brand name. So they had tied up with one of these MNCs. But to their surprise, they found that these companies are only eating their market share not the competitor share. So the alliance was over and even today all the PSUs lubricants are doing extremely well. Who don't know Servo of IOC or Mak of BPCL??
From that angle I thought it may make sense to invest. But when you have better ones in market, why to depend on the unpredictable one. Fully agreed. Thanks
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: kishantripura
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 9:38pm
Is it any good valuing the land owned by these companies? I mean, what are the chances of unlocking value from the land? They might find it very difficult to dispose the land that is surplus to their requirement. They definitely have some real estate goldmines where they have their corporate & regional & various other admin offices. But will they ever allowed to shift those offices by their union? Big big question. Unfortunately no answers.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2007 at 9:48pm
Originally posted by kishantripura
Is it any good valuing the land owned by these companies? I mean, what are the chances of unlocking value from the land? They might find it very difficult to dispose the land that is surplus to their requirement. They definitely have some real estate goldmines where they have their corporate & regional & various other admin offices. But will they ever allowed to shift those offices by their union? Big big question. Unfortunately no answers. |
DO you think that the Govt. will ever allow these companies to sell off their land? This is close to impossible and land value means nothing from the market cap point of view.
Valuing these companies on land will happen only when they go in for liquidation - closure. Shall the Govt. ever allow this to happen?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 3:20pm
First of all many of their offices are built/bought completely in company name.
It is not only office premises, but lands/sites of many of their outlets are owned by the company.
Per se, they will be holding lot of land (like Mcdonald). If somebody wants to start a company equivalent to BPCL, then they may take the actual land value.
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 4:46pm
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way
_________________________________________________________
Last time the BJP wanted to privatise it but could not also there are too many variables in this equation. I would let Ajit Dayal keep this for his Quantum Equity fund - all that rationality and value has seen this stock go nowhere for the last 4 years whereas the index has gone up 5 times. The opportunity cost of being a value guy in stocks that are governed by Govt. policy (HP/BP/GAIL) are far too high. Let us buy a Reliance instead.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 4:56pm
Q.L.T.E.M.F. mein woh saahab ka khud ka paisa kaha laga hoga? Usme toh L.T.E.M.F. ke small investor ka paisa hoga. So this opportunity cost argument doesn't make sense from fund manager's point of view.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: karttikeya
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 7:58pm
Don't you think sir,these oil psu's have reached a point of "maximum pessimism" in vocabulary of Sir John Templeton.And this is pricisely the time when a true contrarian sould invest bravely in these stocks?
------------- mukesh
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Sep/2007 at 8:07pm
Sure but that is how they were a two years back! Question is to look at that catalyst (change) which would make these stocks non-value.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: ramki830
Date Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 8:21pm
Originally posted by basant
If BJP comes back to power and if they go for privatisation, then during due diligence, then they may do that way
_________________________________________________________
Last time the BJP wanted to privatise it but could not also there are too many variables in this equation. I would let Ajit Dayal keep this for his Quantum Equity fund - all that rationality and value has seen this stock go nowhere for the last 4 years whereas the index has gone up 5 times. The opportunity cost of being a value guy in stocks that are governed by Govt. policy (HP/BP/GAIL) are far too high. Let us buy a Reliance instead. |
Rightly said.. if a non left government (NDA) comes to power, they will surely sell off either BP or HP. So, if one can predict what kind of government will come to Delhi in next elections, he or she can bet on BP/HP. otherwise, these two are investment basket cases. I had exited these two stocks in 2004 and now look (with sadness) how badly these two businesses have been ruined by the government....
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 03/Sep/2007 at 10:32pm
Absolutely right. Infact I was told BPCL had their whole operations including Sales connected with SAP 4 years back. Sensing privatisation as well as RIL & Essar entering the marketing of Petroleum products, they had done their homework. But unfortunately privatisation did not happen.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: lsatish
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2007 at 5:25pm
Dear All,
I am the new entrant on this site, i equally agree with all of your opinion about HPCL & BPCL , i too hold both these stocks since nearly 2.5 years , it is the worst holding i have. Can anyone guide me what should i be doing at this stage ....keep holding or book losses and invest in any other stock.
Thanks,
Satish
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2007 at 6:02pm
Satish, welcome to the TED and nice to have you here.
As you are aware, Crude Oil has already marched past $80. Earlier people were talking of Crude reaching $80per brl and now it is $100.
With the present govt at the centre, it is doubtful that they will allow these oil companies to raise the prices.
The only trigger (thats what I feel) is that there should be changed of policy towards these oil companies or change of govt itself.
We don't know when all these things are going to happen?? Some people have predicted that mid-term elections may happen after next year budget? It is another 5 months. Who knows what will happen by then???
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2007 at 10:30pm
With a lot of courage (it takes courage to sell a cheap stock) I would recommend you to sell these two companies.Prices may rise but when is the question that our PM cannot answer!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2007 at 9:30am
Absolutely right Basanthji. Infact I sold some of these stocks at Rs.302/-.
No point in waiting for the prices to go up. Looks like earlier (selling) the better.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 22/Sep/2007 at 3:58pm
BPCL, HPCL, IOCL are absolute sell (The underperformers of the bull market ). There is no point in waiting for the Govt to change the policies which will help these stks. By investing in such companies means not only loosing money but also ignoring opportunities elsewhere
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 12:29pm
BPCL has given a return of whooping 20% in last ten days ..
------------- Lets rock
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 10:11am
Fun is CMD of the company is saying they have found the gas while the director of finace is saying no.
In between stock price zoomed like anything.
Anyhow it will come back to 300/- at the same speed with which it went up.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 10:17am
Director is looking to sell it's ESOP shares & move to RIL whereas CMD is anticipating promotion letter.
Pahale peet pooja phir kaam dooja. 
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2007 at 11:02am
Anything is possible.
One thing for sure that there was something wrong as the prices went up like rocket.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2007 at 12:37pm
Fun is CMD of the company is saying they have found the gas while the director of finace is saying no. |
My best guess is that - When the CMD was digging in his garden, he struck an ONGC gas pipeline.
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Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 29/Dec/2007 at 1:48pm
Hi Ritesh,
Just a request, Pls dont post in capital and bold letters (stk wont become 10 bagger by doing so ) TED is different than other sites.
------------- India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 18/Mar/2008 at 10:38am
Ramesh Damani few months back hinted at HPCL as a good contrarian buy in many of his chats .HPCL /BPCL are great companies but are being killed due to government policies but there is a thought that with recession looming over in America it will lead to Oil prices coming down .
Any takers for HPCL as a Contrarian Buy ?
-------------
To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks .
Benjamin Graham.
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Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:47am
Originally posted by valueman
Any takers for HPCL as a Contrarian Buy ?
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I think only Ramesh Damani 
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2008 at 10:47am
the time has come for the Govt. to get these two companies delisted from the public. They have been the biggest suckers and it appears that for the shareholders of these stocks the bull market never came.
I am sure that when markets fall again people will pitch for these stocks but that is not how money will be made. A stock that goes nowhere when the sensex goes up 5 times is awful and each year we have new 'experts' recommending it to their investors!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2008 at 11:05am
Ramdeo bhai is in love with HP and BP.
------------- Warm REgards
Nitin Jagtap
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2008 at 11:52am
So he joins the fray after Shankar Sharma and RD...
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2008 at 12:55pm
I believe no new retail outlets, no expansion whatso ever. Infact reliable sources mentioning that they are trying to cut down the sales to reduce the impact of losses.
Hence we are observing lot of scarcing everywhere.
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2008 at 1:12pm
They were doing so much Advertisement for last 4-5 years. I am always wonder that on one side they are shouting for losses and other side they are advertise their products with costly Brand Ambassadors. Never see the companies that want to increase their losses by selling more when they bound to make losses.
But with surging crude price & cap on retail prices (Only due to elections are at the corners otherwise these companies can easily convince GOI to raise fuel prices again) first time they are in mood of discourage sales of their products.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2008 at 1:50pm
Too little too late! Better to avoid anything which involves the Govt.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2008 at 2:28pm
Originally posted by paragdesai
They were doing so much advertisement for last 4-5 years. I am always wonder that on one side they are shouting for losses and other side they are advertise their products with costly Brand Ambassadors. | No one in the industry thought that such a situation will come.
Can anyone imagine, RIL closing their outlets. This is the first time that Reliance group taking a back seat. Chances of opening their outlets in the near future looks very bleak as they have already moved/given pink slips to all their employess of their Retail Outlet Venture.
During the initial days of their launch, everyone was busy calculating the no. of months of survival to PSUs as new outlets of RIL started coming next to PSUs outlets which were doing good sale.
See what happened??? Hope it does not happen in the same way to their Retail venture???
------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 2:58am
Ohh............now looks like time for punter call........with very high odds.
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 29/May/2009 at 12:51pm
Hmm punting looks like will work!!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 30/May/2009 at 4:09am
Do you guys think, deregulation in current form is better than present situation. With the deregulation, margins are fixed when crude prices are low. When crude prices are above threshold, they need to bear the lost. They won't have the opportunity to recover some of the losses when crude prices are low with deregulation. This threshold crude price becomes one more politically driven number. It is like moving the problem from one place to other place making it even more difficult in the long run.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/May/2009 at 10:53am
Fair argument. Also as investors we need to work out the maximum earnings that these companies could generate in the backdrop of full regulation and then put a pe of 12 to 15 times. I understand that post tax RoCE will be capped at 14pc so one can work out the best case scenario for these companies which comes to 2 times mkt cap. At the moment everyone ir speculation when to buy but I am yet to see a report that defines the opportunity in quantitative terms.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: suyogagrawal
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 1:55pm
Could you please explain that in more simpler term???As you can see i am a new bee
Neways i was also looking at the impact of deregulation on the OMC's. I guess the recent euphoria has been an over reaction to the entire thing. Its quite difficult to predict the EPS for coming years as one has to take a call on the crude prices, Oil bonds which will be provided etc etc. Even some of the best analysts( Sanjeev Kumar) at Kotak finds it difficult to estimate the EPS...
Also on what parameters should we value these cos???????Whether it should be on P?E basis, EV/EBITDA or P/BV basis????
------------- Difficulty is the excuse history never accepts...
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:08pm
Since these would be stable businesses post deregulation we would value it on a Pe or a dcf basis. One needs to check the book value and assume that they will do a 15 to 18pc RoE.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:24pm
I think we need to be careful. I remember around 10 years back also people bought these stocks at a price higher than today on some dis-investment. But we know that no one had courage to do that.
Oil is sensitive commodity and always expect govt control.
Slowly we will get there but not in near future.
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:25pm
I agree. There will never be free market pricing. Period.
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:33pm
if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................
They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV
but the crude is already at $68
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Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 7:40am
Originally posted by chimak10
if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................
They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV
but the crude is already at $68
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Exactly! A lot of brave words are coming out from the Government right now about price deregulation. But the moment they try to increase diesel and kerosene prices, they will get strikes and protests from truckers and from the public. If the oil rpices rise to $90-100 levels, they will be back to arm twisting the PSUs.
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Posted By: wiseowl
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:20pm
Deregulation is indeed possible if projected in the right manner. Consider these facts :
1) Cooking gas : most of us spend more per month on our cable TV than on a gas cylinder. Many people in towns and villages (even in cities) are forced to buy their gas cylinder in black. This is due to a combination of scarcity of supply and unremunerative pricing. Further, there are innumerable hassles in getting a gas connection, particularly the elusive "second" cylinder -- ration card, address proofs, bribes, waiting-list, etc. So, suppose the govt says the gas cylinder will be available on demand, but for Rs 500, most people will jump at it.
Again, pvt refiners are not entitled to the subsidy on cooking gas, which means that a Reliance opts out of LPG retailing.
2) Diesel : Why should a guy driving a Mercedes and a tractor pay the same subsi dised price for the fuel ? The price of diesel can easily be increased. Farmers can be compensated, if needed (since this is a politically sensitive decision), by post-dated coupons / cheques etc, based on some stringent criteria (say, proportional to the type of land they own). A similar thing can be done for public transport or government/ army vehicles based on fuel efficiency criteria or something similar.
3) Kerosene : The really poor people do not use this at all. The subside on firewood. The distribution of this can be linked to the NREGS or something similar.
Long time back, there was an "Oil pool account". A part of the surplus earnings of oil companies when oil prices ruled low went into this fund. This money would then subsidise the oil companies when the oil prices went high. The govt scrapped this well-working system ostensibly to rationalise fuel prices, but no political party has the guts to properly implement deregulation.
------------- You alone are responsible for your actions.
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Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:38pm
Mercedes owners desperately need the diesel subsidy because its spare parts cost a bomb. Tractor owners shouldn't be given any subsidy because they drive like morons.
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Posted By: dee007pak
Date Posted: 22/Jun/2009 at 5:17pm
Deregulation still on the Govt's agenda:-
INDIA OIL MIN SAYS STILL CONSIDERING DEREGULATION OF PETROL, DIESEL PRICES INDIA OIL MIN SAYS GOVERNMENT IS THE SOLITARY OWNER OF RELIANCE INDUSTRIES' EAST COAST GAS India still considering freeing fuel prices-oil min NEW DELHI, June 22 (Reuters) - Indian Oil Minister Murli Deora said on Monday the government was still considering freeing prices of petrol and diesel. "I had said that this will be taken up in four to six weeks and we are still considering it," Deora told reporters.
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“ Money talks… but all mine ever says is good-bye.” -Anon
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