Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Comparing Stocks within the same sector
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Our stocks. Buy hold or sell - The help ourselves Board :Comparing Stocks within the same sector
Message Icon Topic: Is worst over for BPCL/HPCL? Post Reply Post New Topic
<< Prev Page  of 8 Next >>
Author Message
suyogagrawal
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 13/Nov/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 25
Quote suyogagrawal Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 1:55pm
Could you please explain that in more simpler term???As you can see i am a new beeShocked
Neways i was also looking at the impact of deregulation on the OMC's. I guess the recent euphoria has been an over reaction to the entire thing. Its quite difficult to predict the EPS for coming years as one has to take a call on the crude prices, Oil bonds which will be provided etc etc. Even some of the best analysts( Sanjeev Kumar) at Kotak finds it difficult to estimate the EPS...
Also on what parameters should we value these cos???????Whether it should be on P?E basis, EV/EBITDA or P/BV basis????
Difficulty is the excuse history never accepts...
IP IP Logged
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:08pm
Since these would be stable businesses post deregulation we would value it on a Pe or a dcf basis. One needs to check the book value and assume that they will do a 15 to 18pc RoE.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
nav_1996
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 08/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 803
Quote nav_1996 Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:24pm
I think we need to be careful. I remember around 10 years back also people bought these stocks at a price higher than today on some dis-investment. But we know that no one had courage to do that.

Oil is sensitive commodity and always expect govt control.

Slowly we will get there but not in near future.

Edited by nav_1996 - 03/Jun/2009 at 2:26pm
IP IP Logged
smartcat
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 4243
Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:25pm

I agree. There will never be free market pricing. Period.

IP IP Logged
chimak10
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 30/Aug/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1540
Quote chimak10 Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:33pm
if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................

They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV


but the crude is already at $68
IP IP Logged
rapidriser
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 18/Nov/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 966
Quote rapidriser Replybullet Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 7:40am
Originally posted by chimak10

if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................

They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV


but the crude is already at $68
 
Exactly! A lot of brave words are coming out from the Government right now about price deregulation. But the moment they try to increase diesel and kerosene prices, they will get strikes and protests from truckers and from the public. If the oil rpices rise to $90-100 levels, they will be back to arm twisting the PSUs.
IP IP Logged
wiseowl
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 04/Mar/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 295
Quote wiseowl Replybullet Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:20pm
Deregulation is indeed possible if projected in the right manner. Consider these facts :

1) Cooking gas : most of us spend more per month on our cable TV than on a gas cylinder. Many people in towns and villages (even in cities) are forced to buy their gas cylinder in black. This is due to a combination of scarcity of supply and unremunerative pricing. Further, there are innumerable hassles in getting a gas connection, particularly the elusive "second" cylinder -- ration card, address proofs, bribes, waiting-list, etc. So, suppose the govt says the gas cylinder will be available on demand, but for Rs 500, most people will jump at it.

Again, pvt refiners are not entitled to the subsidy on cooking gas, which means
that a Reliance opts out of LPG retailing.

2) Diesel : Why should a guy driving a Mercedes and a tractor pay the same subsi
dised price for the fuel ? The price of diesel can easily be increased. Farmers
can be compensated, if needed (since this is a politically sensitive decision),
by post-dated coupons / cheques etc, based on some stringent criteria (say, proportional to the type of land they own). A similar thing can be done for public transport or government/ army vehicles based on fuel efficiency criteria or something similar.

3) Kerosene : The really poor people do not use this at all. The subside on firewood. The distribution of this can be linked to the NREGS or something similar.

Long time back, there was an "Oil pool account". A part of the surplus earnings of oil companies when oil prices ruled low went into this fund. This money would then subsidise the oil companies when the oil prices went high. The govt scrapped this well-working system ostensibly to rationalise fuel prices, but no political party has the guts to properly implement deregulation.


You alone are responsible for your actions.
IP IP Logged
smartcat
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 4243
Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:38pm

Mercedes owners desperately need the diesel subsidy because its spare parts cost a bomb. Tractor owners shouldn't be given any subsidy because they drive like morons. 

IP IP Logged
<< Prev Page  of 8 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.047 seconds.
Bookmark this Page

Join Theequitydesk.com Today!

It’s easy to Join and it’s free.

Here's why members would love to be a part of theequitydesk.com

  • Equity Desk focuses on why to buy shares and invest in share rather than what to buy.
  • Live discussion forum wherein members can discuss the current Indian share Market trend, BSE Sensex or the Nifty Index.
  • Have huge cache of information on Indian and World Share Market.
  • Analysis of Indian stock market, Global events, Investing insights, portfolio management strategies and thoughts,
  • Meet investors from round the globe check their investing strategies share experiences and learn for their experiences on stocks and shares, evaluate opinions on investing in India.

Register now while it’s free!

Already a member? Close this window and log in.

Join Us           Close