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suyogagrawal
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 1:55pm |
Could you please explain that in more simpler term???As you can see i am a new bee
Neways i was also looking at the impact of deregulation on the OMC's. I guess the recent euphoria has been an over reaction to the entire thing. Its quite difficult to predict the EPS for coming years as one has to take a call on the crude prices, Oil bonds which will be provided etc etc. Even some of the best analysts( Sanjeev Kumar) at Kotak finds it difficult to estimate the EPS...
Also on what parameters should we value these cos???????Whether it should be on P?E basis, EV/EBITDA or P/BV basis????
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basant
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:08pm |
Since these would be stable businesses post deregulation we would value it on a Pe or a dcf basis. One needs to check the book value and assume that they will do a 15 to 18pc RoE.
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nav_1996
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 2:24pm |
I think we need to be careful. I remember around 10 years back also people bought these stocks at a price higher than today on some dis-investment. But we know that no one had courage to do that.
Oil is sensitive commodity and always expect govt control.
Slowly we will get there but not in near future.
Edited by nav_1996 - 03/Jun/2009 at 2:26pm
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smartcat
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:25pm |
I agree. There will never be free market pricing. Period.
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chimak10
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 6:33pm |
if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................
They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV
but the crude is already at $68
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rapidriser
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 Posted: 03/Jun/2009 at 7:40am |
Originally posted by chimak10
if not expect a good correction in the market..................they would have to increase the ceiling upto 75$ at least........................
They may not touch kerosene..........................but if they not move on the somewhat free pricing movement..............then what will happen to market.........although it is just one issue.........but muralijee had given good sound bites on TV
but the crude is already at $68
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Exactly! A lot of brave words are coming out from the Government right now about price deregulation. But the moment they try to increase diesel and kerosene prices, they will get strikes and protests from truckers and from the public. If the oil rpices rise to $90-100 levels, they will be back to arm twisting the PSUs.
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wiseowl
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 Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:20pm |
Deregulation is indeed possible if projected in the right manner. Consider these facts :
1) Cooking gas : most of us spend more per month on our cable TV than on a gas cylinder. Many people in towns and villages (even in cities) are forced to buy their gas cylinder in black. This is due to a combination of scarcity of supply and unremunerative pricing. Further, there are innumerable hassles in getting a gas connection, particularly the elusive "second" cylinder -- ration card, address proofs, bribes, waiting-list, etc. So, suppose the govt says the gas cylinder will be available on demand, but for Rs 500, most people will jump at it.
Again, pvt refiners are not entitled to the subsidy on cooking gas, which means that a Reliance opts out of LPG retailing.
2) Diesel : Why should a guy driving a Mercedes and a tractor pay the same subsi dised price for the fuel ? The price of diesel can easily be increased. Farmers can be compensated, if needed (since this is a politically sensitive decision), by post-dated coupons / cheques etc, based on some stringent criteria (say, proportional to the type of land they own). A similar thing can be done for public transport or government/ army vehicles based on fuel efficiency criteria or something similar.
3) Kerosene : The really poor people do not use this at all. The subside on firewood. The distribution of this can be linked to the NREGS or something similar.
Long time back, there was an "Oil pool account". A part of the surplus earnings of oil companies when oil prices ruled low went into this fund. This money would then subsidise the oil companies when the oil prices went high. The govt scrapped this well-working system ostensibly to rationalise fuel prices, but no political party has the guts to properly implement deregulation.
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smartcat
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 Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 12:38pm |
Mercedes owners desperately need the diesel subsidy because its spare parts cost a bomb. Tractor owners shouldn't be given any subsidy because they drive like morons.
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