When I started investing as a young impatient, restless and a (self styled ) astute & logical investor I wanted reasons for everything that the markets did. It took me several years and plenty of failed opportunities to understand that in majority of cases markets moved first, reasons followed later while debates continued thereafter. This sequence of events continues even today where market variables have increased in terms of news points, the logic has become more precise and hard-hitting with more information from the TV and the internet. All these has however not been able to change the end game for the investor which is�Markets move, first reasons follow later�.
For someone like me I have given up assigning reasons and levels since 2008. Benjamin Disraeli said �What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history�. This applies to pinpointing reasons for short term market movements and�erronously assigning credits in the �I told you so� mode. These self-styled forecasters mistake the randomness of events to self- generated intellect. Our markets are passing through a similar phase. We have been assigning the movements to various reasons based on the recency effect and when there is no recency element we put the blame on the Govt. for its sheer inability to govern or in the more sophisticated language �governance deficit�. How many of us wanted to put failure of the Govt. to undertake second generation reforms as one of the primary reasons for our stock market to go down and when the Govt finally plunged in hitting two birds with one stone (FDI in retail and Companies Bill) the markets obliged � by sliding 150 points the next day. Basically the markets seem in no mood to listen to any good news and wants to catch all the bad news this is the classic feature of a bear market or as some eternal bulls (me included) like to say a bearish phase!
If the trend does not reverse very quickly then the bullish times seem some distance away. There are so many stocks quoting at 2 year lows and several at 2008 lows.The underlying reason is that markets want to go down and are going down. How else can you explain scores of companies trading at PEs of 4 and 5 times, RoE of near 20% and a yield of 4%? The stock keeps going down and the yield keeps looking better but one has to bet on them at the right time. Somewhere down the line we will be able to make that quick money buying the beaten down names but personally I would attempt those opportunities only when I�m sure of downside protection. If in the event we miss some so be it because we need a 100% gain to make up for a 50% loss and the probability of doing foolish things go up when a person is on the losing table � he gets desperate.
In this backdrop even though I consider myself a part owner of a business (more refined word for a long term investor) I have started to pay more attention to prices on the screen and the emotions on the street when it comes to buying cheap stocks. As markets fall the cheap stock becomes cheaper and when they rise the costly ones become more expensive. One single data point of analysis is to look at whether the stock you own is nearer to the 52 week high or the 52 week low. In either case the line of least resistance as Jesse Livermore wrote about one hundred years ago acts as a magnetic force � and that force is in complete contrast to what a value investor thinks.
The call of the hour remains to stick with fundamentally strong stocks rather than try to bottomfish for the beaten down names. The beaten down names look cheap but are devoid of earnings visibility. We will ride them when it seems that it is fit to ride. At 20 times trailing the human mind choses to think of L&T as a cheaper stock to another alternative with more predictive earnings just because L&T is down from its 2008 high. The fact that there is so much of an issue with new projects, falling capex, high interest rates does not bother the investor because he is more focussed on buying what has come down rather than focusing on the twin matrix of value with price or more importantly reality with perception. One stock (NCC Ltd) is down to November 2004 levels. In the interim it became a ten bagger!!!
It pays to lose some opportunities in life rather than be brave and ride against the tide for no martyr has ever collected the gallantry award himself.
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LLC, BofA Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital Inc., HSBC Securities (NYSE:USA) Inc., Mizuho Securities USA Inc., Jefferies LLC, Scotia Capital Markets, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, will seek to maintain the stock's strong early momentum and accelerate its growth after the release of positive research reports beginning with the conclusion of the quiet period.Evidence That Quiet Period Expirations Can Open Buying OpportunitiesAs The Journal of Finance (VOL.
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HDFC among world's top 10 consumer financial services firms
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd has been ranked among the world's ten biggest and most powerful companies in the consumer financial services sector on a Forbes list topped by global major American Express.
Ranked 7th, HDFC is the only Indian company in top-ten in this category, where others include Capital One , Visa and MasterCard.
Yes, but every information is always discounted by the market. And we can not say exactly because of which information market is showing such movements. So its good to be updated with the current news and predict the possible market movements based on that news before making any investment.
Traders should follow the best investment guidelines for safe trading, only then they can invest and earn a big profit.
Hey Basant,
Nice article be frank i would love to say you that I believe in the theory of price and time
correction, Yes this is also write that market moves first and according to market we invest in stock market. Thanks again Basant from this lovely article.
Your article has really given in some insight to understand the market now. Still , I need to understand this concept of bull and bear and it's effects to gain only profits.
Market Cautious Ahead Of Quarter Earnings :
The government may change the definition of �long-term,� raising the time limit for capital gains tax relief to a minimum of three years from one year at present. There is, however, no plan to introduce a long-term capital gains tax on stock trading. A change in the definition of �long-term�, if announced in the budget for 2017-18, could likely prompt millions of individuals who trade in stocks to shuffle their savings portfolio. Under current rules, gains made on a listed company stock are tax free if the investor exits after a year. The changed definition, however, would imply that investors both retail and institutional will have to pay 15 percent tax on the premium or gains made if the stock is sold within three years.
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Posted on:5/26/2016 4:43:25 AMsumitraepic
It's a real fact that market move first and traders follow the strategy given by investment advisory firm.