When I started investing as a young impatient, restless and a (self styled ) astute & logical investor I wanted reasons for everything that the markets did. It took me several years and plenty of failed opportunities to understand that in majority of cases markets moved first, reasons followed later while debates continued thereafter. This sequence of events continues even today where market variables have increased in terms of news points, the logic has become more precise and hard-hitting with more information from the TV and the internet. All these has however not been able to change the end game for the investor which is�Markets move, first reasons follow later�.
For someone like me I have given up assigning reasons and levels since 2008. Benjamin Disraeli said �What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history�. This applies to pinpointing reasons for short term market movements and�erronously assigning credits in the �I told you so� mode. These self-styled forecasters mistake the randomness of events to self- generated intellect. Our markets are passing through a similar phase. We have been assigning the movements to various reasons based on the recency effect and when there is no recency element we put the blame on the Govt. for its sheer inability to govern or in the more sophisticated language �governance deficit�. How many of us wanted to put failure of the Govt. to undertake second generation reforms as one of the primary reasons for our stock market to go down and when the Govt finally plunged in hitting two birds with one stone (FDI in retail and Companies Bill) the markets obliged � by sliding 150 points the next day. Basically the markets seem in no mood to listen to any good news and wants to catch all the bad news this is the classic feature of a bear market or as some eternal bulls (me included) like to say a bearish phase!
If the trend does not reverse very quickly then the bullish times seem some distance away. There are so many stocks quoting at 2 year lows and several at 2008 lows.The underlying reason is that markets want to go down and are going down. How else can you explain scores of companies trading at PEs of 4 and 5 times, RoE of near 20% and a yield of 4%? The stock keeps going down and the yield keeps looking better but one has to bet on them at the right time. Somewhere down the line we will be able to make that quick money buying the beaten down names but personally I would attempt those opportunities only when I�m sure of downside protection. If in the event we miss some so be it because we need a 100% gain to make up for a 50% loss and the probability of doing foolish things go up when a person is on the losing table � he gets desperate.
In this backdrop even though I consider myself a part owner of a business (more refined word for a long term investor) I have started to pay more attention to prices on the screen and the emotions on the street when it comes to buying cheap stocks. As markets fall the cheap stock becomes cheaper and when they rise the costly ones become more expensive. One single data point of analysis is to look at whether the stock you own is nearer to the 52 week high or the 52 week low. In either case the line of least resistance as Jesse Livermore wrote about one hundred years ago acts as a magnetic force � and that force is in complete contrast to what a value investor thinks.
The call of the hour remains to stick with fundamentally strong stocks rather than try to bottomfish for the beaten down names. The beaten down names look cheap but are devoid of earnings visibility. We will ride them when it seems that it is fit to ride. At 20 times trailing the human mind choses to think of L&T as a cheaper stock to another alternative with more predictive earnings just because L&T is down from its 2008 high. The fact that there is so much of an issue with new projects, falling capex, high interest rates does not bother the investor because he is more focussed on buying what has come down rather than focusing on the twin matrix of value with price or more importantly reality with perception. One stock (NCC Ltd) is down to November 2004 levels. In the interim it became a ten bagger!!!
It pays to lose some opportunities in life rather than be brave and ride against the tide for no martyr has ever collected the gallantry award himself.
Market view for the week 15th march 2016
Government successfully figured out solution of the upper house of parliament on Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Bill and now bill will become a law once the lower house, or the Lok Sabha, also approves it. Going next week, the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement along with updated quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy on 16th March. Fed officials have already indicated that the pace of rate increases, first hike since 2006, will be gradual and data-dependent. Investors would also keep an eye over the statement to be issued by the Central Bank of China with regards to monetary policy plans for 2016. Economic data out of China including industrial production, retail sales, etc would be released in next week. Heavy buying is expected if the nifty could manage 7600.
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Entire banking sector is dealing with NPA issues as of now and Bank of India is no where different from other banks. Especially public sector banks are majorly involved in the high NPA run and the asset quality issues as well. Because of this March quarter results were hammered. Banks of India posted loss of nearly INR 6000 crore. NPAs for the bank rose nearly 46% YoY. Banks will take couple of quarters to clear their balance sheets. At current levels, banks are at cheap levels as far as valuation is concerned. Another major result of State Bank of India is yet to disclose, which will drag the Bank Nifty further. After some more correction, banking sector will be favorable for the investors with the long term vision.
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US FED meeting is due today which is the next big event markets are waiting for. Falling Crude Oil is the major concern currently. We should expect a new trend to emerge in the markets in the coming days. We have the Central Bank�s policy meet for US, Japan, Switzerland and UK, all scheduled to be announced this week. Lets wait & watch for the outcome from US Fed meet tonite...
what do you think?