Rakesh Jhunjhunwala- What does he feel?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=931
Printed Date: 03/May/2025 at 7:37am
Topic: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala- What does he feel?
Posted By: deveshkayal
Subject: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala- What does he feel?
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2007 at 9:39pm
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Bhaiyya at Intaglio 2007, the annual international management meet organized by IIM, Calcutta.
I had the opportunity of listening to him and would like to share my learnings from The Big B.
His Long Term Investment Learnings: - The man prefers to have no clients except his wife because, “I don't want to be answerable to anybody. But with her, I've no choice”. The journey for him has not been without hiccups. But he preferred to face the challenges rather than give up; he will concentrate on the process rather than the outcome. People sit up and take notice when he says something. This is because he is considered to be a visionary, he gets in actually before the trends start. The Big B said, “By God's grace, I think from 1985-86 to 2006, I had been able to catch most; say if there are 10 cycles in the market, then I have been able to catch 9 right. So investment wise, the cycles have been good. In trading, we make mistakes everyday. Source:harishbihani------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Replies:
Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 12:36pm
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 10:47am
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Who decides the valuations and who can say which level is reasonable
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Well said... ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2007 at 11:34am
Probably Rakesh does not know that ANil, Mangnani, Ambarish Baliga, Shankar SHarma & Co. are the ones deciding valuations and whether they are reasonable or not  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 1:34pm
| when you listen to rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the one thing that will make you look up is his arrogance, but somehow that suits him as well....true, he is arrogant, but he is also brave....he is the one who has given investors a feel-good factor, as earlier all those who used to depend upon equities for a living were thought of good for nothing people, who had no business but to speculate. As i hail from such a business family, where all are in some kind related to equities, I can vouch for whats the power of equities.....true, its risky but those who have managed to get their timing right, have really made a fortune out of it. True, the approach may differ, yet his bravery is an inspiration. The way rakesh jhunjhunwala ridiculed prakash gabba at one of those meets broadcast on CNBC is so very vivid in my memory....he was murderous, simply murderous..... for a "fundamental" person, the mere talk of a target/support can make them fly hard at you....they have scant respect for them and he made it show very well. |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 4:34pm
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What RJ means is probably that valuations aren't stretched in the companies he is targeting.Emotionally he is very stable ,positive and agressive and that has been his main distinguishing consistent hallmark over the years which has given him the edge to ride the India story. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: pirate
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 4:43pm
| well said... |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 7:50pm
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RJ is very very RARE (pun unintended) without doubt. He both invests & trades in the market, successfully.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 10:29pm
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I switched off my TV by seeing SS on Taking Stock! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2007 at 11:00pm
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RJ has taken a contrarian view on the I.T sector hoping for rising volumes to offset the falling dollar.RD opined that its too early to be a contrarian in I.T stocks.In any case ,opportunity is there. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 3:36pm
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I m just back from RJ Investment Show...just wanted to share outside details of the book given to me which is all about Investment Approach of RJ...
-RJ bought Titan at Rs.32.
-He made most of his money in PSU stocks.
-Analyst report are crap whether its DSP,CLSA,etc...
-When someone asked that many NFOs are coming,what a retail investor should do, RJ reply was "New relationship are always exciting"
 -When asked whether he would invest abroad, he said "he would love to but he cannot bcoz of Capital Account Convertibility.The best place to invest except India is Africa.
-On Rupee Appreciation he said," I dont understand why Top Tier companies are crying..when they were coming out with good numbers,did they pointed out to Rupee Appreciation.He said both Volumes and margins are expanding,he agreed that it will affect IT companies and there will be PE contraction due to this.He still remain bullish on IT companies.
-He wont be surprised if market makes new highs then there will be period of consolidation.
Wait for the Investment Approach by RJ...Its a 10 page book..Will post the important points. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 3:50pm
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The topic that I have chosen for this lecture is "My Investment Approach".The question many people ask me is why approach and not philosophy because the one thing I can say with certainty is that the quest to be a good investor is a journey and not a destination, is one which is dynamic and not static and in an ever changing and evolving world is open to change and fresh thought at all times.Philosophy connotes dogmatism and set rules while approach is one which is flexible. I also feel that I am too young to have developed a true philosophy.The crux of my argument has been proven by the decision of Mr. Warren Buffet to invest in commodity companies which he has shunned all his life.
The purpose of any approach is to have a final result or goal and my investment goal is to earn absolute returns as against relative returns. By absolute returns, I mean inflation adjusted,risk adjusted post tax returns.It is not my goal to merely earn returns higher than the market indexes. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 4:51pm
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As I crystallize my thoughts about my investment approach, I realize that the approach has five elements.
- Efficient asset allocation
- Correct stock selection
- Exit horizon
- Disciplined leveraging
- Consistent review
Efficient asset allocation
As a part of my asset allocation process,I decide on the broad composition of my portfolio.My asset allocation process involves three steps:
- Selecting asset classes in my portfolio.
- Deciding weightage of each asset class in my portfolio.
- Deciding on level of leverage (or cash)
The decision to remain more than 100% invested in Indian equity has truly been rewarding.
Correct Stock Selection
I believe that when we invest in a company we invest in a business model.All profits arise due to certain prevalent factors which are also dynamic in nature. In my analysis rather than trying to project absolute profitability, I try and understand the reasons and circumstances that will give rise to these profits. In general we can categorize these factors into:
1. EPS related
a.External Oppurtunity
b.Competitive ability
c.Scalability
d.People
2. PE related
a.Price value divergence
Exit horizon
We should use periods of extreme optimism to exit and extreme pessimism as an oppurtunity to buy.
Technical analysis helps me to sell beyond the fair value in the case when equities tend to overshoot.
Disciplined leveraging
I always ensured that I leveraged only to the extent of my ability to service interest cost and principal repayment. I structured my leveraging in such a way that dividend from my investments was enough to repay interest and establishment costs.
I ensure that leverage does not exceed more than 10% of my portfolio.
Consistent review
We invest in an uncertain and dynamic world.This requires us to constantly review our investments for the changing circumstances could alter our assessment of the future. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 5:29pm
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Excellent thoughts. RJ's investing strategy indiactes that there is no sin in leveraging nor is there any single model of operation. I liked the concept of leveraging and that leverage being 10% of the portfolio. Personally I had started with leverage being 100% of the portfolio (borrowed money on personal loans etc) but sucess with a 100% leverage strategy is more of a fairy tale rather then a norm. ALso we should understand that just because RJ follows one strategy does not make that strategy fool proof! Let me illustrate this with an example.
In 2001-02 I was invested in HTMT which paid a good dividend of Rs 6 on a Rs 150 stock. I was also paranoid about interest payments and I tried to calculate the dividend yield of my portfolio with respect to the overall leverage. Since I was leveraged to my neck I had a soft corner towards high dividend yield stocks.
In 2003 when Bharti listed on the stock exchanges and fell down to Rs 25 I had a great inclination to convert HTMT into Bharti. Though I did participate in Bharti the dividend yield on the stock was not there. Soa s Bharti rose in price the first stock that I wanted to keep was HTMT because it paid me good dividend and when I sold Bharti at Rs 115 I learnt my lesson vey well.
My present portfolio has a dividend yield of less then 1% and I do not look at dividends any more.
As Bubble says everything works but we should see what works for you! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BULLSEYE
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 6:01pm
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as far as i know is that rj has bought titan in 31 oct 2005 near rs 400
and after it went to 800 in a week
that at wt price rj bought punjllyod
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 6:49pm
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Thankfully, now this thought is being accepted. I exactly feel that way! As RJ has clearly mentioned that he uses TA and FA .... (A Khichri of sorts) which is not suitable for me, but it works for RJ and It's great. I am compeletly open minded even when someone says that he made money from Astrology, as that may be working for him! Leveraging is also another thing, that I use to good effect, and there is no sin in that, if at each levels, we keep the total risk to acceptable level. Everything works, including Day-Trading. And please don’t marry your position! The conviction, which ultimately flows in Arabian sea is useless, as there is a fine line between “Conviction” and “Stuborness” which is often forgettion. Be convinced only while the reason of the “Trade” is valid. I call an Investment of 10 years also a “Trade”. The most important thing is to "Identify what works for you" and then have the decipline to follow that method. I am dogmatic in following “System Trading”. I would like to once again print ED SEYKOTA......“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want from the market. Some people like to lose, so they win by losing money.” If mother nature gives you hunger, then she also has given you a mind to think and two hands to work to satisfy that hunger....ED Seykota! Devesh......Post more from the booklet or if you can scan it, then please do so and send us a copy by email. One quote of RJ which I always rembember is “You have to lose many a war to win the battle”, as it is extremly relevent for me. BasantJi....there was one more thread of RJ in which Devesh had posted some really good articles on RJ. Please merge this thread in that.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 03/Jun/2007 at 11:28pm
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BasantJi....there was one more thread of RJ in which Devesh had posted some really good articles on RJ. Please merge this thread in that.
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I think you are talking about this thread,
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=654&PN=5 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=654&PN=5 More or less RJ said the same thing which he said in IIM Calcutta...
Also if there can be a seperate thread for RJs portfolio and his investing strategy...
Bullseye: RJ and Sanjoy Bhattacharya of New Vernon both said that the former entered Titan at 32..he may have increased his stake afterwards..No idea on Punj Lyod..
When asked about Politics,he said even if Mayawati become the Prime Minister of India, the country is going to progress anyway. He hates Communist who are licensing retailers...
He looks for international cues like Nikkei for trading purposes but says no effect on long term portfolio. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2007 at 3:49pm
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RJ also said that investor communication should be stopped for Environment reason..Most of the investors dont go through the company mails...If any investor need information,he can contact company officials and get the same.. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2007 at 4:20pm
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If RJ said that investor communication should be stopped that would definitely be the wrong approach because not everyone has the means to approach the company for it himself. I really cant beleve he said that or am I missing something? ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2007 at 4:51pm
| When people become great, they may talk a lot of things which are made to become gospels.....as investors, we should always learn whatever is to be learnt and leave the rest of the gospels.....whether investor communication is to be stopped or not, for such a thing its better to listen to SEBI rather than to a person who may not be competent enough to take a decision on that.... true he may hold a big percentage, and may direct the company to save on such overheads, but whatever is required by law will have to be published or provided....so, how to invest and where to invest etc etc.... its good to listen to him, but on corporate governance and investor communication etc etc, he can be safely ignored. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2007 at 5:13pm
Strongly disagree! Are we creating monopolies in terms of company communication. Will a person holding 10 shares of Infosys call up the company from his home town of Itanagar
 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2007 at 11:56am
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RJ is indeed a superman. He seems to have good qualities of great investors+traders. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: patnitin
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 12:31pm
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I would say that many of the communication can be sent by email to whoever has provided an email id to the company/dmat account and the companies can use the money thus saved for charity or any other such purpose.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 12:42pm
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"...but prediction of PER is an art with very little science. It is a chemistry that can be mastered only by experience. Like cooking & s*x it cannot be taught but has to be learnt. I learnt that understanding /predicting PEs is the most difficult of all & the most critical factor for successful investing."---RJ (from the booklet 'My Investment Approach', courtesy: DK)
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:22pm
Charity begins at home ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 3:20pm
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Today is a World Environment Day, i agree with RJ!!!! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 4:27pm
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The purpose of any approach is to have a final result or goal and my goal is to achieve absolute returns as against relative returns. By absolute returns, I mean inflation adjusted, risk adjusted post-tax returns. It is not my goal to merely earn returns higher than the market indices. This is also driven by the fact that I do not manage any third party's money and my returns are not driven by any fees based on any benchmarks.---RJ (from the booklet 'My Investment Approach', courtesy: DK)
Individual investors must remember this.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 6:57pm
Rj started with a meagre Rs 10,000 somewhere in 1985 and with some trading profit was on a leverage capital of Rs 10 lacs in a few months now if you compound that Rs 10 lacs at 57% for 22 years You do get to the figure of Rs 2250 crores. Remember we discussed http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=922 - the magic of compounding and RJ is one example on that. Basically he came out unhurt both in 1992 (Harshad Mehta) and in 2000 (ketan pareikh). Now avoiding the biggest mistakes is one of the ingredients to creating this ocean of wealth.
But he had bet very aggressively in 1989 or thereabouts he was the only person long on the markets and I think Madhu Dandvate was to present the budget and the whole market was short and RJ the only lone long standing bull! he minted. I heard that In 1992 he was among the few who could time Harshad mehta's bubble to perfection. The other being Radha Kishan Damani - of Bright STar investment.SO while the whole nation bled and lost these two investors minted.
Radha Kishanji lost a fair percentage of his portfolio in BPCL and HPCL and then he diverted into D-mart and became an investor.
The striking thing about thes etwo investors is that unlike a Jesse Livermore (he stands out far above anyone in trading) these two changed their style after making some decent money.
He himslef admitted during my meeting with him that he started out with a small capital and huge leverage but remember for every RJ that is born we have hundreds of martyrs like him. But that did not prevent RJ from thinking big maybe had he gone into that bank fixed deposit approach after making Rs 10 crores we would not have been discussing him on this forum!!!
Note: ALl this is from market talk and none of this is confirmed so please keep that in mind. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 7:34pm
As mentioned before, I guess the time factor (22 years) is the most important number, followed by returns (57%) and initial capital (Rs. 10 lakhs).
How did he avoid 2000? RJ never invested in any of the tech stocks? And are you sure RJ is not using leverage now?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 7:40pm
He still uses leverage. I remember in 2002 he was stumped for margin calls and sold NIIT etc on a day when those stocks tanked 18% under his own weight. But as he says
" You have to lose many a battle to win the war"
And by the looks of it he seems to be winning right now  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 8:35pm
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RJ also said Dont be afraid to make a mistake.Book losses and get out unless u have a RICH father in law! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 9:23pm
Actually he would have started with almost equal money upfront. Say Rs 30 crores in Tv Today and Rs 30 crores in Praj!
Now he went right on Praj but did not switch his winning position (Praj) into his losing position say Tv Today that is what created the difference.
So it is a question of letting the profits run!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:24pm
Why do you think I was after Aishwarya Rai all these years?
But now I guess I need to switch to Plan B.
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:39pm
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I missed some extremly good discussion during the day on the TED.
Kudos to BasantJi for again updating RJ portfolio.
BTW, someone wanted to know that RJ leverages or not....
According to what I have heard from one member of TED...He leverages and leverages big time!!!
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:43pm
Loss booking extremly vital Devesh.....and If one does'nt learn it, he will die poor!
I have seen more investors die in the market than traders.
Some Traders die taking multiple small losses...While many investors die taking a one time account wipeout.
I will post something from Livermore's book on this on the weekend.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 11:11pm
Makes sense!!
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 12:40pm
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Bubble, its all about discpline.......be it trading/investing.....one should have no sympathies for a person who has been a loser thanks to his indiscipline. This market will always down hard who live in the world of illusions.......who are dogmatic in their approach..... who have pre-conceived notions......and people who use the word dislike more often than like.....
coming to booking losses.....I have just the opposite view.....if you located value in your initial purchse and even then if the price comes down from there, buddy, for me its time to do some rupee cost averaging.....however, tremedous discipline must be there while you zero in on a particular stock at the first purchase. Bubble,I have always wished my stocks to fall down very heavily, its the way I approach my work...... however, I am totally in sysnc with you that if the stock falls on any of the various crteria you have enlisted for yourself, the exit must be very brutal. For me , a hindalco became a sell immediatel it cut its dividend....a hero honda is also a sell for me now because of the same reason.I beleive one must be stubborn with matters to discipline....
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Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:06am
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How did he manage to do this? I dont beleive that it was all due to excellent timing calls. That is very hard to beleive, for someone of his stature, surely he could've had inside information. Because to come out of these 2 scams unhurt is really lucky.
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:28am
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In hindsight it does not look that tough.We traded at a PE of 55 times in 1992 and technology stocks were at aPE of 100+ in 2000! Just that emotions gets the better of most investor's reasoning ability.
Also as investors we are too fearful to sell stocks that are going up 10% each day while becoming overvalued but some hard decisions ensure that we never see harder times.! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 12:11pm
And now, most of the real estate stocks are trading at PE of 100. Land Bank Zindabad.
hmm.. RJ is not into real estate companies either.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 9:35am
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Most unpopular ideas may be are the most profitable.---RJ (from the booklet 'My Investment Approach', courtesy: DK)
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 5:40pm
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Catch the special show "The Road from here" by Rakesh Jhunjunwala on CNBC tonight at 8:30 pm.
Kulmanji,aap toh mera naam short karte ja raho..from Deveshji to Dev to DK...wonder next time u will call me D..Don Don Don!!! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 7:10pm
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Thanks for that info. Devesh ji. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 9:50pm
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Snippets from "Road from Here" with RJ on CNBC -Likely to see a range bound market
- Consolidation phase may extend to 6-9 months
-Corporate profits as % of GDP at new highs
-Too much wealth has been made too easily
- Hope that US interest rates will come down
-Inflation may not go above 5%
- See a case for interest rate to come down
- Dont have any investments in PSU Banks
-No bank in India produces secular profit
- Consolidation of banks may take place at 2-2.5x book value
-He invested in KVB in 1993 at 150 whose current value is 8000!!!
- Have very little exposure to IT sector
-Have no investments in real estate sector.Will not apply for DLF IPO.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 9:51pm
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Catch the special show "The Road from here" by Rakesh Jhunjunwala on CNBC tonight at 8:30 pm.
Kulmanji,aap toh mera naam short karte ja raho..from Deveshji to Dev to DK...wonder next time u will call me D..Don Don Don!!!
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Oh, I missed that show. Any highlights? Do you have link to that video?
About short-names, DK sounds good! Sirf D theek nahin lagta......D se Derivative hota hain!!
 ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 10:06pm
D se Dollar aur Delta bhi Hota hain!!! ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 10:31am
Along with above,RJ also said,"I dont know what is liquidity and what is not liquidity"  ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: drpatils
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 5:50pm
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Here is full interview for Teddy's -those missed
I like the confidence of this guy and also the clarity of his thinking like our Basant Ji...
Consolidation healthy for mkts: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
It’s been an amazing three-four months for the market. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Global%20markets%20&datesel=2 - Global markets are in the midst of a spellbinding run. Since the http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Budget&datesel=2 - Budget , the markets have seen one http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=big%20fall&datesel=2 - big fall after which, the http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Nifty&datesel=2 - Nifty went on to achieve new highs < ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Rakesh%20Jhunjhunwala&datesel=2 - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala shares his perspective on what has happened over last four months and what the road looks like from here for the next three-four quarters and the next three-four years. He says that it would be healthy for the markets to http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=consolidate&datesel=2 - consolidate at this range, which will prepare the ground for a dramatic rise. He also thinks http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=interest%20rates&datesel=2 - interest rates have peaked off and he doesn't see a further rise in rates. Excerpts from an exclusive interview with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala:
A: Surely in the last two-three days, the market has exhibited weakness, but I am not sure that we are going to see a major movement, either way. Maybe in the next one-two months we are going to see range bound markets with some amount of consolidation rather than a major move, either way. Q: How would you classify that - a major move? You are saying that more then a 10% Index move is unlikely over the next one-two months? A: I would think so. Q: Either way? A: Either way. Q: So essentially are we going through a consolidation phase? A: I would think so. Q: But are you a bit surprised that the http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Sensex&datesel=2 - Sensex has not gone on to make new highs or the http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Nifty&datesel=2 - Nifty did not stick at new highs for a very long time? A: I am not surprised, because in the last four years, we have had a path-breaking rise from 3,000 to nearly 15,000. As a http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=long-term%20investor&datesel=2 - long-term investor , I would be happier if the market consolidates at this range and makes the ground for real dramatic rise. We have had fantastic returns over the last four years. As long as the market doesn’t lose much, I am not concerned at all. Q: But you think this consolidation phase will be short-lived or could it be an extended one? A: I think it could extend to six to nine months to a year and I would think that’s healthy for the market. Q: But what are global markets telling you now, because almost every market has rallied so significantly? A: Economic growth in http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Europe&datesel=2 - Europe has surprised positively, there is a lot of positive news out of http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Japan&datesel=2 - Japan , economies in http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Asia&datesel=2 - Asia are doing well. Not only is economy doing well, but the percentage of profits that corporates are getting out of http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=GDP&datesel=2 - GDP , are at all time highs. Now the worry could be that these percentages may not be maintained, but the fact remains that today the percentage of corporate profit of GDPs is that it stays high. Interest rates worldwide are not at very high levels, but inflation is surely a matter of concern, which is why markets are doing what they are doing. But to my mind, the uniform increase in http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=asset%20value%20&datesel=2 - asset value of all classes is something that could be troubling. Q: What troubles you the most about the extent of the breadth of the rallies that you have seen in commodities, bond, stocks, gold, oil, everything? A: Sometimes I feel that too much wealth has been made very easily. But maybe out of prejudice, I have all my assets in Indian equity. I feel India equity, as an asset class, will standout. Q: Do interest rates bother you, because that’s been the fear for the last few days globally that they might start inching up and denting the case for equities? A: The markets are not discounting the fact that interest rates will inch up. There were expectations that interest rates in America will come down and in the last four-five days, after the economic news and http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Mr.%20Bernanke’s%20&datesel=2 - Mr. Bernanke’s statement. The feeling now is that interest rates may not decline in America. As far as India goes, http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=liquidity&datesel=2 - liquidity is abundant; http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=inflation&datesel=2 - inflation is below 5%, it's not expected to go above the 5% figure. You have seen some slowdown in the auto industry, so the monetary authorities can feel that they have achieved partly what they set out to do by easing interest rates. I see no reason why in India interest rate should not come down. Q: Do you think they will go up before they come down? A: I do not think so. Q: It's completely peaked off you think? A: I think so, absolutely. Q: You do not think because of the ample liquidity right now the Reserve Bank may make another tightening move? A: I do not think the government is necessarily interested in hurting growth. Government is interested that you have growth with controled inflation and I think, it's very difficult for inflation to go above 5% in the next five-six months. In India, we don't have more then 2% owned houses, we are at an initial stage of consumption; why should any government want to limit consumption? I personally feel interest rates should come down and industry will be lobbying now that inflation is under control. If you do not have elevated inflation, next four-five weeks, we can expect some softening in the July policy. Q: As early as that? A: Why not? Whether the Reserve Bank softens or not, if liquidity is what it is now, it will soften by itself. Q: So you wouldn’t be terribly pessimistic about some of the rate sensitive sectors any more? A: Not at all. Q: That would include public sector banks? A: Yes, I would think so. Q: Did you get bearish on public sector banks when rates were going up? A: I have no investment in public sector banks and as far as my investment in the banking sector goes, I do not go by quarters because they don’t affect my investment over a period of time. Especially, State Bank of India is 30% of Indian banking; I think if State Bank can get its act together, it can be a really fine investment. Q: Why do you steer clear of public sector banks? You do not like their business morals? A: I get a secular return in my investments on a multiple return if there is a secular profit growth, but no public sector bank in India produces secular profit growth. There are fundamental problems like ratio of cost to income. These banks income can explode, if the ratio of cost does not increase in proportion to income and I think that could happen in State Bank now. Q: You are more optimistic on some of the private sector banking space? A: Yes because I think, there is going to be consolidation in Indian banking, it's not more then three-four years away. Most old private sector banks today quote between 1-1.5 times book and I think, consolidation will not take place at less than 2.5-3 times book and their profits are growing at about 20-25%. In fact, I have an investment in Karur Vysya Bank which I made in around 1993. I never sold that investment until today and if I am not wrong, Rs 150 investment today - one share became 10, 10 became 30, 30 became 90, 90 became 270 - so Rs 150 investment is Rs 80,000 today. I have never sold that investment and there is a natural growth in banking. Q: Do you think these are the banks, which will go first. The Karur Vysya Bank, the regional older private sector bank or the new ones like Yes Bank and DCB? A: I don't know. I think, you are already pricing in into DCB and Yes Bank the prices at they will be consolidated. So whether they will go or not, nothing's left on the investor’s plate. I don't think there the return can exceed profit growth, while in the other banks, there is going to be a valuation kicker plus there is a profit growth. Q: You said three-four years - you don't think it will happen as soon as the doors are open in 2009? A: The doors may open in 2009 or it may take two to five years. Q: What’s your call on how the rupee has been moving? How do you see the technology space panning out? A: I have very little exposure to technology. Q: Aptech must be one of your significant investments? A: Aptech is in the training space. I don't think, it’s as much a rupee appreciation as it's a dollar depreciation. I do not know much about the currencies, but I am not of the view that rupee can gain more than 2-3% a year. We might have seen the best of the software industry, as far as investors are concerned. At least for the next two-three years, because surely there is going to be wage inflation and if the currency doesn’t appreciate, it will be a double whammy to the balance sheets. Historically, margins of 30-32% have not been maintained. If there is a slowdown in the US, the first sector which will have a hit in India is the software industry. Now there is a double opinion about that; lot of people say more work will come in, but in the slowdown in 2000-2001 not only work was a challenge, but also the rates were a challenge. Q: You have not taken any contrarian position in technology after the rupee’s recent rise? A: No and I don't think you should also, because their PEs today are well priced. So there maybe growth, but if their margins don't expand, then PEs could contract. Q: The other sector I remember you telling me a few Diwalis back, which you were circumspect about, was telecom. Another sector that has done extremely well. How do you look at valuations and growth in that sector now? A: Growth will be good and valuations are also good. In a bull market you can always be wrong as long as you don’t go short. So if you don’t buy, everything goes off. So what’s important is you should remain committed Q: In the last few weeks since that February fall happened, at any point, where were you significantly short because we have this phenomenon people going short and then the market moving up foreseeing them to cover up. Have you had any such experiences in the last 4-5 months? A: I don’t think I have made any short positions significant in the last 4 years. I don’t get the feeling internally that markets are going to dip in a big way or markets are valued at such levels that just sell-sell-sell and sell. Q: Even when the market fell to about 12,000 odd levels, you didn’t consider, because that was a sharp fall? A: I was caught on the wrong foot in the Budget, I was long on the Budget day and I exited and I did not short anything. I hope I had, but I did not. Q: How do you read the global cues right now and do you subscribe to that view that the shape of the Indian market in the near term is very tight to what’s happening globally or not quite so? A: It’s difficult to say. But I don’t think it’s so much tight as people are apprehending because lot of domestic money is going to come. The Indian economy has got one of the lowest international exposures because I don’t think that any international slowdown is really going to affect any exposure of India, other than software. Also, if there is also going to be an international slowdown, commodity prices will come down which for a net importer of commodities like India, it’s going to be a very good factor; interest rates worldwide will come down. We have a very large domestic economy, which is largely going to remain unaffected by what happens internationally. So even if things internationally slow down in the first leg, India is surely going to be hit both in terms of sentiment and maybe economically. But over a period of time, we will find that India is the economy that will be the most resilient and may therefore attract the largest investments. Q: How much of this rally in the last few months is being fuelled by pure liquidity because that’s what people keep talking about? A: I don’t understand what is liquidity/ what’s not liquidity, because I don’t know who is to decide what is value. I think it’s the most transitive word in the English language. History has never been a guide really because history has always been made afresh. So I look upon PE and valuation as an economic performance and the amount of money, which is available to buy that performance. I don’t agree with all that there is liquidity chasing. Do you think analysts know what value and valuations are? They would be the richest people in the world. Q: You don’t agree that valuations are expensive in India right now? A: We can’t generalize. Surely there could be pockets of valuations where I won’t buy as an investor or I would exit as an investor, if I have a holding. There are pockets where there is opportunity. But in general, I don’t think; one of my biggest learning as an investor is that good stocks always remain expensive. So if India is going to perform as a market, we are always going to feel it’s expensive. They (stocks) are not expensive, because expensive, I don’t I think it’s not going to be expressed in terms of valuations until and unless valuations are way-whack out of any reality. Again ’92, you had SBI Magnum - it was a closed-ended equity fund. At the NSE, it was Rs 50 and the quoted price was Rs 150. Valuations are really expensive when people just want to participate, leverage and markets are rising 10% everyday, and everybody is participating. So it’s more a psychological manner and matter rather than the absolute number. Q: You don’t sense that euphoria at all right now? A: I don’t know what you were doing in ’92 - you have not seen ’92. I think we are going to have another ’92 in India and we are going to have in next 3-5 years. That will be the time to sell stocks; like 2001-02 was the time to buy stocks. Q: Do you see any extreme over-valuation pockets right now in the market like we saw in the hay days of the technology boom, some speak about real estate being one of those examples: do you agree with that? A: I won’t equate it with the technology bubble. That was not a boom - that was a bubble. I don’t think real estate is valued as the technology stocks were valued. So I don’t see that kind of extreme overvaluation. Q: Have you invested in the real estate sector at all? A: I don’t have any investments in real estate. Q: How is that possible, last one-one and half years they have been some of the biggest multi-baggers? You must have had reasons to look at those opportunities and let them pass? A: It’s a very dicey subject. None of the real estate companies pay tax. I don’t know how they get their profits. Second thing I also feel that anything, which can be valued as one plus one is equal to eleven; is not what ultimately gives you returns in markets. I don’t know, I have never been into real estate bull in my life and wrongly so. Q: But you have bought a lot of real estate yourself; how come you don’t buy those stocks? A: I have not bought any real estate. I bought a house and office. Q: Commercial real estate you have dabbled in the past, haven’t you? A: Not at all. That’s not my cup of tea. Q: So you would not be queuing to buy DLF, would you? A: No I wouldn’t. Q: Why - valuations or innate distrust of the business? A: I would say valuations, more than anything else. Q: So you have had a look at it? A: Yes. Q: You don’t agree with those - slight premium to land bank - those kinds of valuation models at all? A: Why should I go and buy DLF, I will buy the land only. Q: Do you think this will have any kind of material impact on the market - the fact that some serious amount of paper is hitting the market over the next 2-3 months? A: Lot of that paper will be bought by the strategic buyers. ICICI Bank's 10% will be bought by the Government of Singapore. In the international context, this kind of paper is not much, in the Indian context surely, it will have some effect on the market. It's not coming at a valuation, which is very cheap. So nobody is going to today dump markets and buy those issues. There maybe a new class of investors, there are a lot of first time investors. I foresee, by 2010-11, we should have USD 45-50 billion of domestic money coming in. If you have that kind of money coming in, surely USD 15-20 billion of local issues will be easily absorbed. Q: Why is that money still not coming in? We've had a fantastic run, everybody can see that equities is the place to be, but aside of some mutual funds, NFOs, we are not seeing great participation coming in locally. A: I beg to differ. Lot of this money is coming into the insurance sector. I am told, last year the investment made by the insurance sector in Indian equities was higher than the investment made by the Indian mutual fund industry. Q: You are talking about unit-linked plans? A: Mainly unit-linked plans. In India, pension fund money is not allowed. Only 13% of the Indian labour today has pension and out of that pension, not one paisa comes into equity. All that has to be allowed ultimately. As time passes, market should not lose. If markets gain and don’t lose much, then I think money will flow in. If there is going to earnings growth in India, even if you get 15% return, a lot of money will flow into Indian equity. I am confident that we have ssen nothing yet, as far as domestic flow goes. Q: Why not directly? Why are we not seeing direct equity participation? A: The general participation is through insurance and through mutual funds. Maybe we require more penetration into smaller towns and now I am told, lot of money in the mutual funds, insurance companies is coming from smaller towns. Also there is a distrust in equity, because people lost money in ’92, people lost money in 2000. But I am confident that lot of money is going to flow from the domestic side. Q: You made an interesting point that volatility and sharp falls drive people away. You don’t see the prospect of that later in 2007, because when the market falls 20% in a small period, people don’t come in for 6-7 months? A: You have to see corrections from not only what value it corrects, but what time period it corrects. If we do not have earnings damage, which we cannot rule out, I don’t see any way by which we should go below 11,500-12,000. But if the index is to earn Rs 840-850 next year, at 12,000 you are 13-14 times earnings. The index has historically never traded below those levels even in bear markets. Q: That to your mind, is the flow for valuation? A: If the earnings are 850, I think 11,500-12,000 would be the flow. Q: You are reasonably certain of delivering Rs 840-850 this year? A: It should come through; I don’t see any reasons why it should not, at least not of now. Source-our own moneycontrol ------------- The journey of thousand mile begins with single step-Chinese Proverb |
Q: We will talk about the fundamentals, but you spent a lot of time watching the screen. What is the screen telling you for the moment?Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 6:02pm
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In fact, I have an investment in Karur Vysya Bank which I made in around 1993. I never sold that investment until today and if I am not wrong, Rs 150 investment today - one share became 10, 10 became 30, 30 became 90, 90 became 270 - so Rs 150 investment is Rs 80,000 today. I have never sold that investment and there is a natural growth in banking.
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He made 533 times his acquisition cost,assuming he bought the stocks at one go!!!!!!!! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 6:33pm
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You know 270 times looks big but when you put that thing on a financial calculator it comes down to a CAGR of 53%. Now assuming it is at 62% CAGR then it does seem to be a 540 bagger!!! The thread " http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=922 - Magic of compounding " needs to be revisited. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: drpatils
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 6:45pm
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Only those who understand mathamatics and believe in it will only understand ur viewpoint Basant ji...For others it is too good to believe. ------------- The journey of thousand mile begins with single step-Chinese Proverb |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 6:59pm
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SORRY...He is right..at current price (290),it is indeed worth 80,000!!! ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 10:32pm
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Only those who understand mathamatics and believe in it will only understand ur viewpoint Basant ji...
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Excellent point....And this mathematics is simple algebra. No wonder Buffet is against using Calculus.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 10:50am
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in his interview with udyan the big man mentions that that only 2%of indians own households.so as the number of indians owing households goes up so it seems the demand for total kitchen solutions.indians will never stop eating rice but would like to prepare it in quick time hence demand for cookers can only get bigger.maybe he is watching the cos ability to scale up.i feel teds need to watch this space closely a story could unfold here.urbanisation and increasing demand for households is the key. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 11:31am
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Tiger....The demand for Pressure Cookers are Inelastic in nature. Additionally, what if the "Urban Indian Youth" shifts to "Microwaves" for cooking rice! ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 11:50am
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point well taken also competion is the biggest worry for such a co and once competition comes in then pricing pwer dissapears. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 11:53am
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bubble yu have made this post under rjs portfolio so i feel by mistake it gotb repeated here ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 12:03pm
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No I have moved it since this topic will be fresh but that portfolio topic will not ve visited once the next quarter's portfolio is out! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: go4lalit
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 3:32pm
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He made 533 times his acquisition cost,assuming he bought the stocks at one go!!!!!!!!
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KVB current market cap is around 1500 crs, this means RJ entered when the market cap was less than 3 crs. Amazing.....
This is how you can multiply if you can get in early. I don't know any other stock that has given 60%+ return for 15 years. This also proves that you don't need a sector leader always to get best returns. What you need is a well managed company in a growth oriented sector.
KVB with 1500 crs market cap still looks attractive even after 15 years. Will any of the companies that we are discussing in TED will look attractive ever after 15 years?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 4:35pm
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Looking at 15 years is like looking at the top of Mount Everest from ground zero. No one looks at stocks for 15 years at a strech Smart investors look at stocks upto the point they are assured of visibility. If I have made a 60 bagger in some stock in 4 years I will take it from this point not from the point I entered that stock.
Please visit the post where I have emphasised that you need not be a with a leader to make money in a bank stock. Otherwise there is no criteria in which I would have recommended HDFc Bank.
Investing is funny in the sense that you cannnot measure everything with the same tape!!!
About the stocks being discussed at TED in demand after 15 years it is strange that you put that up because I am not sure how many investors would survive this market for 15 years.Stocks are beyond the realm of discussion altogether. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 5:02pm
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About the stocks being discussed at TED in demand after 15 years it is strange that you put that up because I am not sure how many investors would survive this market for 15 years.Stocks are beyond the realm of discussion altogether.
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absolutely true Sir........survivng 15 years in this market is indeed a challenge.......I dont think you are a dreamer as you proclaim, you appear to be quite quite practical with feet totally on earth.......its very very important to have the survival kit ready, EVERYTIME.......this is one thing which I find a problem with most of the people.....the myopic way they approach the markets.......I am not experienced to point out follies, yet at times its so strak that even a fool like me can notice it.....
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 10:28pm
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Thanks.Over te past few years I have developed the habit of thinking in the skies by standing on the ground ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 11:14pm
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I do not get the arithmetic of the returns in KVB-533 times.The market cap in 1993 was more than Rs. 20 crores.The equity capital has gone up from Rs. 2 crores in 1993 to around Rs.54 crores now.A cousin who bought 100 shares in the very early 1990s(on my recommendation) at 123 told me it had appreciated to around Rs 6 lakh a couple of years back.Am I missing something? ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 10:31pm
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This interview goes a bit contrary to what he said on CNBC
http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/aug/01bull.htm - http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/aug/01bull.htm
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 10:30am
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 13/Jun/2007 at 11:00am
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RJ is still betting on MTNL.With him,Smooth Operator (known for his picks in the cement and auto-ancillary space) is betting on MTNL. (ET)
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Basantji,who is this smooth operator.. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Jun/2007 at 11:18am
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I think this is a reference to Nemish Shah of ENAM . Not sure though. Namish SHah is a proponent of the auto ancilliary boom for the last 12 years!!!
In fact Namish SHah had identified ACC before Harshad Mehta somewhere in 1990!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2007 at 10:06am
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Huge success of public offers worries Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
The recently concluded domestic follow-on offer of ICICI Bank Ltd attracted close to Rs1 trillion against an issue size of about Rs9,000 crore
Rachna Monga
Mumbai
Mumbai: Big Bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is raising concerns about the short-term direction of the Indian stock market.
Addressing an audience of about 200 brokers here on Tuesday, Jhunjhunwala said, “I am circumspect and rather careful about the market for the next six months.”
He says he is concerned about the way Indian initial public offerings (IPOs) are getting huge subscriptions not only in India, but globally.
Jhunjhunwala was talking at the launch of India’s Leading Equity Broking Houses 2007, a publication of Dun & Bradstreet, a business information providing firm.
The recently concluded domestic follow-on offer of ICICI Bank Ltd attracted close to Rs1 trillion against an issue size of about Rs9,000 crore.
In mid-June, New Delhi-based realty firm DLF Ltd’s Rs9,500 crore IPO was subscribed three-and-a-half times. Dozens more IPOs, including those in real estate, are on the cards.
In early 2005, when India’s benchmark stock market index Sensex was hovering around 6,000 point levels, Jhunjhunwala surprised investors by predicting that it will go up to 25,000 by 2009. Two years since that prediction, the benchmark index has been hovering around 14,500 levels. It reached its lifetime high of 14,723.88 on 9 February.
Over the past month, the 30-stock Sensex has risen marginally from 14,397 points to close at 14,43.06 on Wednesday. The broad-based 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty has risen from 4,256 levels to 4,263 during this time.
Despite being cautious in the near-term, Jhunjhunwala’s speech had its usual bullish undertone as well.
“It’s not that the market is going to fall from a cliff tomorrow. After an year from now, we will once again enter a long-term bull phase.”
Jhunjhunwala, who runs Rare Enterprises, an investment firm here, says he’s surprised that many investors who come to him tend to focus on the negative aspect of the Indian growth story.
Ramesh Damani, a member of the Bombay Stock Exchange and a well-known markets commentator, is also worried about the money being thrown in the recent IPOs.
“I think it’s time to get scared,” he said. “After four years of strong double-digit returns, we are likely to see consolidation in this year. Sensex could be seen in the range of 12,500-15,000,” he added.
However, Damani still thinks that there are stocks available at great valuations and investors just need to focus on picking individual stocks instead of chasing the market movements.
Manish Chokhani, director and CEO, Enam Securities Ltd, foresees the market entering into a consolidation phase in the next six months.
“In last two weeks, three Indian companies have raised around $9 billion from domestic and global markets,” he noted. “This shows the huge appetite of investors for Indian papers. But the secondary markets still haven’t taken off in a big way.”
However, not all market pundits who have huge investor followers are bearish in the near term.
For instance, Raamdeo Agrawal, managing director, Motilal Oswal Securities, is comfortable with the current state of markets and he doesn’tsee any dangers in the nearfuture. “There is a clear distinction between performers and non-performers,” he said.
“Sectors which have not performed well have been decimated or severely punished by investors. But the ones which have performed well have been more than adequately rewarded,” Agrawal added.
Source:livemint.com ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: nil5624
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2007 at 10:57pm
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2007 at 1:20am
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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's meeting with students of IIT Mumbai
The presentation of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's meeting with students of IIT Mumbai held on 11th August, 2007 can be http://webcompilationster.googlepages.com/RARE_Presentation_to_IIT_B___11_Aug_.ppt - downloaded from here. (.ppt size 679KB)
Like Warren Buffet he has some good advise for youngsters:
AS YOU EMBARK ON PROMISING LIVES
• ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2007 at 5:17am
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Hight of Bull run -> 'A trader turn investor giving presentation to IIT'. I have seen entrepreneurs addressing to educational institutes this one is simply amezing.... ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 8:38pm
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Want to know what Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is buying next? (Source: ET; They met Jhunjhunwala at a time when the markets were volatile at the end of August 2007)
It is 12.30 pm http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/News__Views/Analysis/Want_to_know_what_the_biggest_investor_is_buying_next/articleshow/msid-2373400,curpg-1.cms - at RaRe Enterprises, Nariman Bhavan . There are five monitors showing more red than blue. The market is facing a blood bath. The Sensex is falling. In the thick of the action, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala turns from these screens, he is unruffled. There is a massacre happening as investors lose wealth but Mr Jhunjhunwala looks at you almost bored and says “lets not discuss the markets” . The biggest investor in India is chewing paan as he loses wealth on his screens. He lights a cigarette. He loosens his white shirt. He has not worn a tie for the last five years. “I know I am losing wealth but should I let this bother me? I don’t think so. I would be crazy to look at my wealth like this. I believe that India stands on strong fundamental grounds and over a period things are only positive. But please do not interpret this as Rakesh Jhunjunwalla is saying that the Sensex is going to touch 40000. Some day it may touch. But who knows when?” For a man who purchased Tata Tea for Rs 5000 when he was only fifteen years old, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has a total networth of ap-proximately Rs 6000 crore along with his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala. The exact value of the portfolio is something he doesn’t like to talk about. He doesn’t have any rules for his science of investing. But his ap-proach is fundamental and takes a long-term view thus he is also referred as the Warren Buffet of India . Jhunjhunwala has never met Warren Buffet but admires and even follows his style of investment. “Don’t insult the great man by comparing me to him. I am young and I’m constantly learning. There is so much to learn from others.” He pauses and refuses a phone call from a big corporate house in India. “But at the end of the day I want to be only Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and nobody else” , he says. Retail investors, analysts and fund managers always want to know what he is buying . Everybody wants to be a part of Rakesh’s stocks. He knows that. He leans back and looks at you and tells you that he is not an advisor or a fund manager. He and his wife came into the limelight with Crisil Limited. At the end of April 2005 he was holding 14.26% of the company, accounting for Rs 70 crore. In the same year the couple made Rs 27 crore after they sold out to the S&P open offer at Rs 775 per share. Today his investment in Crisil is worth more than 200 crore and the holding accounts for 7.63% of the entire company. In all the companies that he has invested, it is this investment that has given him his famed moments . In India, bull runs have been associated with certain individuals. In the nineties it was Harshad Mehta and in early 2000 it was Ketan Parekh. But Jhunjhunwala does not like to be associated with any booms. He believes that the market is above individuals. Individuals can be associated to excesses in the markets, but not to the phase of the markets itself, he believes. It is like if the market is at a P/E multiple of 20, an individual might just make investors believe that the P/E should be 22. He thinks that individuals who believe that they are bigger than the markets do not last for a long time. “The market is rational. An individual can never be smarter than the market” , he says and his phone rings. Someone wants to sell him a credit card or personal loans. He politely refuses and drags on his cigarette.
“The market is about greed and fear. Sometimes there is too much greed and sometimes there is too much fear. It has a lot to do with the psychology of the market. You have to sometimes read the market like you read an individual” , he adds. But Mr Jhunjhunwala has not taken any courses in psychology or behaviorial finance to understand the psychology of the market. He has always believed that psychology cannot be learnt in classrooms. He has learnt his lessons in finance by practicing them and never believed in borrowed wisdom. He has liked his experience first hand. “I have experienced the markets from its core. You know I was there during the day of the bomb blasts when it happened. I have seen ups and downs so my understanding of the market is from being in there”. That is probably why international fund managers like to spend time with him to understand the Indian equity market. He meets at-least two international fund managers a week. Probably that is where he markets or tries to sell the India story to the global equity fund managers. He doesn’t like it when he is referred in this context. “How can you sell the Indian equity to the global fund manager? Is it an FMCG product like toothpaste or a shampoo? These fund managers are here because they believe in the fundamentals of the country. Not because a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala wants them to buy Indian equity” . He gets slightly excited. Incidentally, foreign investors are selling Indian equity as global markets are facing a liquidity crisis. Those who have purchased the India story are jittery. Highly leveraged funds that invest into global markets based on borrowed money are facing the heat. They have purchased assets that they are not able to value. They don’t even understand the nature of these assets. As the ground beneath their feet starts to shake, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sits firm. He was in Lonavala watching movies when the crisis was very severe. He is patient and knows that this shall also pass. The red on the screen will turn to blue. The market will once again be the winner. Mr Jhunjhunwala will remember this. His greatest fear - he might fall prey to his own philosophy. The market will remain above all individuals. At a time when the market is going through volatility and an uncertain phase, Jhunjhunwala has no advice for the investors. “I don’t advice anybody. I don’t manage anybody’s money. I manage my wife’s money because I don’t have a choice.” He smiles and stubs his cigarette. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2007 at 12:18pm
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I read somewhere today that Rakesh jhunjhunwala is acquiring Mangalam Cements stock now. ------------- Shashi Praharaj |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2007 at 11:31am
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Most investors envy Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and most of them wonder how much money he must be making on a day when Sensex and Nifty gained over 4 per cent each.
Estimates of Rs 6,000 to Rs 10,000 crore have been done the rounds. He is convinced of India's rock solid performance based not on the US but on the domestic consumption story.
However he does add a disclaimer, "I am convinced that India will outperform but investors have to face the fact that the kinds of returns that the Indian equity markets have given over the last five years will not be repeated, but India will outperform. I think the P/E multiple would swing between 14 to 15 times to 20 times," Jhunjhunwala said.
His new large cap buy has been Ranbaxy Laboratories and he has added more to his Titan shares, taking his stake in the company to 11 per cent after having sold BEML and offloading part of his stake in Praj Industries holdings.
While his other investments like Nagarjuna, Punj Lloyd, Pantaloon Retail, Bilcare, Geometric Software and banking stocks like Karur Vysya are intact he is staying away from IT and real estate companies.
Apart from about 25 listed stocks, he is also becoming private equity player having taken up his list of investments to 15 over the last one-year. His latest private equity deal was a retail play by buying a 15 per cent stake in Metro Shoes.
Is Jhunjhunwala worried about industrial production growth which fell to 7.5 per cent in July? He says it is too early to tell but it does not worry him right now. What is required though is some softening on RBI's stance.
"I salute the RBI for having controlled the growth the way that have but now they need to reduce interest rates to some extent for the future," Jhunjhunwala said.
A bullish outlook as always, the only real risk says the big bull is a sudden nosedive in global growth, which could shrink valuations not just in the west but in Asia as well. (ndtv) ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 4:18pm
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US bull mkt coming to an end: Jhunjhunwala
http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/searchresult.php?search_str=Rakesh%20Jhunjhunwala&datesel=2 - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala , Investor and Trader said that the US housing market is unlikely to bottom in mid-term. He added that US economic growth was unsustainable.
According to Jhunjhunwala the bull market in the US had signs of excesses. He said that he believes that the US bull market is coming to an end. Jhunjhunwala forsees a big slowdown for techs if the US markets slow down.
He added that interest rates and commodity prices will also come down...... For Details: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/us-bull-mkt-coming-toend-jhunjhunwala/15/29/305363 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/us-bull-mkt-coming-toend-jhunjhunwala/15/29/305363 |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Sep/2007 at 5:47pm
This is a bit of a surprise. RJ knows so much about the US economy?
Our hero was never a software bull.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2007 at 4:59pm
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http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1128339 - 50k in 6 to 7 years, says Jhunjhunwala
On the participatory notes issue
There was a day when we had to pledge our gold (to borrow foreign exchange, in 1990). Now we have to restrict foreign capital. Life has come a full circle. Where will Sensex go next?
50,000 in 6-7 years if the current profit growth is sustained. And GDP growth? What about corporate profitability? Which sectors are hot? What about real estate? What about household money coming to markets? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2007 at 7:51pm
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somebody has been buying banking stocks and some body was buying punj lloyd and some body has bought thermax and some body is eyeing nagarjuna construction and a lot of old folks are in bharti and rcom....btw is he eyeing TTML ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2007 at 7:57pm
| Who is this somebody? Anybody we know? Nobody I know bought all the stocks you mentioned. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2007 at 8:19pm
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the big B has bought banking an animal has bought punj ,the smaller version of that same animal has bought thermax and godess was just talikng bout nagarjuna ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2007 at 12:15pm
| Doc, don't tell me you learnt this code language in Ladakh.. |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2007 at 9:29am
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RJ in JV with Shinsei Bank for selling MF's in India. RJ will hold 15% stake, Shinsei 76%, rest will be held by employees.
RJ bought Crisil at 150  ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2007 at 9:45am
Just check up if these guys will also sell Bancassurance and other mass affluent products along with MF's. This JV further re-inforces the business model that the private banks are following!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 16/Nov/2007 at 11:37am
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No they will only sell MF products. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2007 at 3:27pm
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what would rjs role be in this would he be a fund manager or just a passive investor ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2007 at 11:17pm
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These Shinsei people seem to be quite smart. By getting RJ as a financial investor in the venture, they can market/publicize their products better. Now imagine - wouldn't you get your grandma to invest in Shinsei Jhunjhunwala Long Term Equity Fund?. I remember RJ saying in an interview once that he doesn't want to manage anybody's money. So my guess is that RJ's team would only give advice to Shinsei's fund manager on stock picks. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2007 at 8:01am
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They would only sell products is what I think. Fund management would be done by someone else. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Nov/2007 at 11:02am
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so now would GEOGIT come anywhere in this picture could they be brokers for shinsei? ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2008 at 9:57am
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http://specials.rediff.com/money/2008/feb/15rakesh1.htm - Words of wisdom from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2008 at 10:33am
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Excerpts...
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2008 at 11:24am
RJ further says in there: Abhi tak to humarre doodh ke daat bhi nahi gire aur yeh to tandoori khatam hone ki baat kar raha hai!  ------------- Saab Moh Maya hai! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2008 at 11:45am
ha ha !!Sir jee....he also says that "Admitting that gains were going to be moderate in future unlike the manifold rise over the last few years, he advised investors to be realistic in their expectations."
It's always better to be a Vegetarian. It helps in these times as there is this bird flu scare going around.
On second thoughts...investing is all about grabbing that juicy tandoori leg piece when panicked guy is throwing it off thinking it's a baingan (brinjal/egg plant).. And moreover it is all about eating what one can digest.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 16/Feb/2008 at 6:09pm
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u r right kulmanji, its better to keep low expectations...Expectations Reduce Joy On a lighter note: I had invested in Venky's after following the RD chats on MC. With more and more statements from RD, my borrowed conviction increased...and one fine day the real chickens caught bird flue the paper chickens were crushed (not just hammered)...and I borrowed the flue as well! One fine day, I consumed toxic beverages and slaughtered all my chicks, with occasional offering to RD.  ------------- Saab Moh Maya hai! |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2008 at 12:29pm
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we have now learnt from the venky experience not to by livestock the same logic also applies to floriculture ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 1:17pm
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yesterday I met a person who knew the big bull very well. As we discussed he indicated:
1) RJ started his career as an entrepreneur setting up a factory with his brother in law in Hyderabad. Probably the unit was for manufacture of some pharma product.This business venture did not go off well and thereafter RJ came back into stocks.
2) Right since the begining RJ was very ambitious. He wanted to do big things and even when he did not have anything he would dream of making it big.
3) RJ still remembers his old friends and would stop his car in the middle of the road if he saw one.
4) His biggest trait is of being able to identfy people and understand them very well at first meet. If he does not like a person he will know it within the first few minutes of meeting.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 1:48pm
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Point no. 2 implies that he is an eternal optimist....positive attitude. Point no. 3 means he is still down-to-earth. Point no. 4: understanding humans & their behaviour is the key to success. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 1:58pm
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Point I indicates he cuts losses quickly and gets on with life! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 2:10pm
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economictimes reports that rj has been holidaying in the uk for the past 2 weeks and has just returned. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 2:39pm
no wonder Titan is up 8% today 
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 13/May/2008 at 2:48pm
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |