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My Chimpanzee Portfolio beats the Sensex!

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=889
Printed Date: 04/May/2025 at 11:34pm


Topic: My Chimpanzee Portfolio beats the Sensex!
Posted By: smartcat
Subject: My Chimpanzee Portfolio beats the Sensex!
Date Posted: 04/May/2007 at 12:26pm
In the US, an analyst got a trained Chimpanzee to throw darts at a board that contained random names of stocks in the American stock exchange. Apparently, the Chimpanzee's portfolio of stocks beat the S&P Index and most of the mutual funds.
 
I have done a similar experiment. I have created a dummy portfolio at ValueResearchOnline.com with a bunch of stocks I picked based on news-worthyness of a stock (not randomly) -
 
- I started the experiment sometime in October/November 2006 - when the Sensex was at 14,000 levels.
 
- I 'invested' Rs. 30 Lacs in shares of companies that make news. For example - if a particular company (Eg: IFCI) gets lots of airwaves and exposure multiple times in a week, it gets an entry into my chimpanzee portfolio.
 
- The exact amount invested in a stock is mostly random. For eg - I invested Rs. 3 Lac in Indiabulls Financial, Rs. 2.3 lacs in Teledata etc
 
- Since my investment amount (Rs. 30 lac) is limited, if a new stock makes news, I would replace the non-performers with the new stock.
 
- The chimpanzee portfolio has returned approximately 40% while Sensex is at the same level.
 
Interesting huh? Big%20smile 
 
Disclaimer: I don't recommend this to anybody. This is just a dummy portfolio and is only 6 months old. This performance might not repeated again.
 
 
 
Fund/Stock
 
 
 		 Initial
Purchase
Date 
(dd-mm-yy)		 Units/Shares
(Nos.)		 Cost Basis
Per Unit/Share
(Rs)		 Total Cost Basis
(Rs)		 Current
Market
Value
(Rs) 		 Unrealised Gain/Loss
Since Purchase
(Rs)		 Realised Gain/Loss
Since Purchase
(Rs)		 Total
Annua
-lised
Return(%)		  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=630 - C M C 16-01-07 125.000 927.0000 115,875.00 141,331.25 25,456.25 -- 95.65
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=7306 - DCB 02-01-07 616.000 56.8000 34,988.80 45,861.20 10,872.40 -- 124.69
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16472 - Educomp Solutions Ltd. 17-10-06 125.000 643.4000 80,425.00 163,343.75 82,918.75 -- 266.77
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16462 - Everest Kanto Cylinder 17-11-06 204.000 592.2515 120,819.31 205,519.80 84,700.49 0.00 317.71
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17095 - Global Broadcast News 09-02-07 226.000 531.1000 120,028.60 153,702.60 33,674.00 -- 192.86
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1410 - Gujarat N R E Coke 09-04-07 3,094.000 50.1000 155,009.40 141,241.10 -13,768.30 -- -74.28
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16933 - Hanung Toys and Textiles 02-01-07 1,105.000 117.7000 130,058.50 151,495.50 21,437.00 -- 57.85
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1533 - Himachal Futuristic 02-02-07 1,205.000 29.0500 35,005.25 31,992.75 -3,012.50 -- -30.30
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=5851 - I C R A 16-03-07 178.000 930.3500 165,602.30 145,666.30 -19,936.00 -- -61.54
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1755 - IDBI 06-03-07 1,393.000 71.8000 100,017.40 126,136.15 26,118.75 -- 320.12
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=6883 - Idea Cellular 12-03-07 1,313.000 87.6500 115,084.45 149,485.05 34,400.60 -- 505.63
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1756 - IFCI 14-02-07 4,115.000 27.9500 115,014.25 199,783.25 84,769.00 -- 1,182.24
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=15870 - Indiabulls Financial Services 06-03-07 747.000 402.1000 300,368.70 425,491.20 125,122.50 -- 762.21
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17108 - Indiabulls Real Estate 23-02-07 430.000 325.6500 140,029.50 154,542.00 14,512.50 -- 67.23
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17003 - Info Edge (India) 29-12-06 215.000 580.3500 124,775.25 160,927.50 36,152.25 -- 108.98
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=5672 - Infrastructure Devp. Fin. Co. 06-03-07 1,260.000 79.4000 100,044.00 129,276.00 29,232.00 -- 388.33
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17165 - MindTree Consulting 09-03-07 322.000 653.5000 210,427.00 251,111.70 40,684.70 -- 216.48
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=2709 - Nucleus Software Exports 07-02-07 124.000 890.5000 110,422.00 124,917.60 14,495.60 -- 68.79
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16754 - Orbit Corporation 16-04-07 463.000 173.0000 80,099.00 93,248.20 13,149.20 -- 2,080.74
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17069 - Pyramid Saimira Theatre 08-01-07 559.000 170.0000 95,030.00 196,320.80 101,290.80 -- 880.61
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=3159 - Rajesh Exports 29-12-06 400.000 349.2500 139,700.00 160,280.00 20,580.00 -- 48.90
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=3367 - S R F 09-04-07 1,113.000 139.3500 155,096.55 181,196.40 26,099.85 -- 868.71
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=4043 - Tata Steel 16-04-07 230.000 523.6000 120,428.00 127,167.00 6,739.00 -- 201.65
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16800 - Tech Mahindra 17-11-06 110.000 1,115.1000 122,661.00 181,571.50 58,910.50 0.00 134.47
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=7182 - Teledata Informatics 06-03-07 5,036.000 45.0756 227,000.72 357,556.00 130,555.28 0.00 2,179.78
Stock Portfolio Total :    3,214,009.98 4,199,164.60 985,154.62 0.00  
Portfolio Total :    3,214,009.98 4,199,164.60 985,154.62 0.00
 
 
 
 
Fund/Stock
 
 
 		 NAV/Price
(per unit)
(Rs)		   Change From Previous
 NAV/Price
          (Rs)                (%)		 Units/Shares
(Nos)		 Market
Value
(Rs) 		 Portfolio
Weight
(%) 		     Rating  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=630 - C M C 1130.65(04/05/07) -26.00 -2.25 125.0000 141,331.25 3.37     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=7306 - DCB 74.45(04/05/07) -4.65 -5.88 616.0000 45,861.20 1.09     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16472 - Educomp Solutions Ltd. 1306.75(04/05/07) -46.15 -3.41 125.0000 163,343.75 3.89     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16462 - Everest Kanto Cylinder 1007.45(04/05/07) -14.60 -1.43 204.0000 205,519.80 4.89     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17095 - Global Broadcast News 680.1(04/05/07) 61.80 10.00 226.0000 153,702.60 3.66     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1410 - Gujarat N R E Coke 45.65(04/05/07) -0.95 -2.04 3,094.0000 141,241.10 3.36     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16933 - Hanung Toys and Textiles 137.1(04/05/07) 1.15 0.85 1,105.0000 151,495.50 3.61     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1533 - Himachal Futuristic 26.55(04/05/07) 2.30 9.48 1,205.0000 31,992.75 0.76     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=5851 - I C R A 818.35(04/05/07) -6.65 -0.81 178.0000 145,666.30 3.47     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1755 - IDBI 90.55(04/05/07) 0.05 0.06 1,393.0000 126,136.15 3.00     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=6883 - Idea Cellular 113.85(04/05/07) -1.85 -1.60 1,313.0000 149,485.05 3.56     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=1756 - IFCI 48.55(04/05/07) 1.90 4.07 4,115.0000 199,783.25 4.76     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=15870 - Indiabulls Financial Services 569.6(04/05/07) 65.90 13.08 747.0000 425,491.20 10.13     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17108 - Indiabulls Real Estate 359.4(04/05/07) 18.35 5.38 430.0000 154,542.00 3.68     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17003 - Info Edge (India) 748.5(04/05/07) -17.10 -2.23 215.0000 160,927.50 3.83     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=5672 - Infrastructure Devp. Fin. Co. 102.6(04/05/07) 2.80 2.81 1,260.0000 129,276.00 3.08     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17165 - MindTree Consulting 779.85(04/05/07) -3.75 -0.48 322.0000 251,111.70 5.98     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=2709 - Nucleus Software Exports 1007.4(04/05/07) -27.40 -2.65 124.0000 124,917.60 2.97     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16754 - Orbit Corporation 201.4(04/05/07) 10.05 5.25 463.0000 93,248.20 2.22     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=17069 - Pyramid Saimira Theatre 351.2(04/05/07) -2.65 -0.75 559.0000 196,320.80 4.68     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=3159 - Rajesh Exports 400.7(04/05/07) -0.40 -0.10 400.0000 160,280.00 3.82     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=3367 - S R F 162.8(04/05/07) 4.80 3.04 1,113.0000 181,196.40 4.32     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=4043 - Tata Steel 552.9(04/05/07) -3.90 -0.70 230.0000 127,167.00 3.03     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=16800 - Tech Mahindra 1650.65(04/05/07) 45.95 2.86 110.0000 181,571.50 4.32     Not Rated  
  http://www.valueresearchonline.com/stocks/snapshot.asp?code=7182 - Teledata Informatics 71(04/05/07) -3.70 -4.95 5,036.0000 357,556.00 8.51     Not Rated  
Stock Portfolio Total :  50,726.32 1.22   4,199,164.60  
Portfolio Total : 50,726.32 1.22   4,199,164.
 
 
 
Portfolio Style Break Up
 Rank   Percentage (%)
 Giant   6.59
 Large Cap   17.54
 Mid Cap   43.86
 Small Cap   32.02
 Not Classified   -0.01
  
 Portfolio Equity Style Box
 Top 15 Equity Portfolio Holdings
 Company Net Asset(%)   Value(Rs.)
 Indiabulls Financial Services 10.13   425,491.20
 Teledata Informatics 8.51   357,556.00
 MindTree Consulting 5.98   251,111.70
 Everest Kanto Cylinder 4.89   205,519.80
 IFCI 4.76   199,783.25
 Pyramid Saimira Theatre 4.68   196,320.80
 Tech Mahindra 4.32   181,571.50
 S R F 4.32   181,196.40
 Educomp Solutions Ltd. 3.89   163,343.75
 Info Edge (India) 3.83   160,927.50
 Rajesh Exports 3.82   160,280.00
 Indiabulls Real Estate 3.68   154,542.00
 Global Broadcast News 3.66   153,702.60
 Hanung Toys and Textiles 3.61   151,495.50
 Idea Cellular 3.56   149,485.05
Others-Miscellaneous 26.36   1,106,837.55
Total Portfolio Value 100.00   4,199,164.60
  
 Portfolio Sector Allocation
Sector Net Asset(%) Asset Value(Rs.)
Technology 29.48 1,237,965.85
Financial Services 25.53 1,072,214.10
Services 19.87 834,574.65
Metals & Metal Products 7.92 332,686.80
Construction 5.90 247,790.20
Textiles 4.32 181,196.40
FMCG 3.61 151,495.50
Energy 3.36 141,241.10
Total 100.00 4,199,164.60


Replies:
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 04/May/2007 at 2:34am
BTW while you are following 'newsworthy' stocks you may be following momentum stocks.. I bet you hit many new 52 week highs by this...

So this is not a random selection..Though meant not to be it follows one investment principle (of buying stocks that hit new 52 week highs).

However, worth noting experimentation Smartcat !



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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch

Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 04/May/2007 at 5:50am
I started the experiment sometime in October/November 2006
------------------------
Well!! silence is not a sign of weakness. Many fellow members might have got these or better returns without making any transactions since oct/nov'06. One don't have to be Chimpanzee for 40% gains. @ TED, we believe in planned approach to wealth creation but it does not mean that there is no other methods. Markets are full of ideas and every ideas have it's day. It is good to observe your experiment until dummy part. Rest is understandable ...
Every return is function of risk but at times we forget that risk is more than just 4 letter word. Risk is essence of return and every new idea is just new equation between 2.
Chimpanzee could win few battles but Teddy wins war!!!.  kuch jyada to nahi ho gaya ..hic..


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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/May/2007 at 8:14am
Investing is 50% skill and 50% emotion. SO dummy portfolios only have one half of what it takes to be an investor. As Buffet said dummy Investing like sex is very different from the original thing.
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 04/May/2007 at 11:56am

Chimpanzee portfolio consists of mainly IPO stocks....Will Network18 be in this portfolio Big%20smile

The experiment was interesting though!


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/May/2007 at 12:41pm
you may be following momentum stocks.. 
 
This type of 'investing' has been done before? I thought I was doing something revolutionary. So I won't get a nobel prize for economics? Smile
 
Chimpanzee could win few battles but Teddy wins war!
 
Vipul Ji, aapne mere chimpu ko lalkaara hain. Dekh lenge!
 
and 50% emotion
 
I agree. There was zero emotion involved here. In fact, during the Feb 2007 crash, Chimpu not only lost capital but was down by almost 30%. Had I put my real money in this, I would have been out of the market by now, licking my wounds.
 
Basant/Others, does any of the stocks in the list look good fundamentally? I discovered Praj Industries through this experiment.

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/May/2007 at 12:46pm
Will Network18 be in this portfolio 
 
hmm.. OK. Let me get rid of Guj NRE Coke and replace it with NW18. CNBC doesn't mention NW18 too often though - probably because they are the owners of the channel.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/May/2007 at 1:53pm
Originally posted by smartcat

[quote]
 
Basant/Others, does any of the stocks in the list look good fundamentally? I discovered Praj Industries through this experiment.
 
A few of them we do keep discussing with all the enrgy- http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=577 - -   , http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=696 - - Educomp - Everest Kanto   etc


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/May/2007 at 3:02pm

Thanks - Looks like I have some reading to do for the weekend.
 
Among other wierd things I do, tracking HFCL tops the list. HFCL is my own 'Sensex Crash Predictor'.

Whenever HFCL curve (red) crosses the Sensex curve (blue), it means the market is overheated and there might be a short term crash. My indicator predicted the May 2006 crash and Feb 2007 mini-crash.

It's probably just a co-incidence. Or probably not - when trader interest /hedge funds / money flow via P-notes  goes up, so does HFCL. And I guess the market gets overheated and is ripe for a crash.

Note that HFCL is rising again and trying to intercept the blue Sensex line Wink

Again, nobody should be taking this very seriously. I don't do it either.

Graph Source: Equitymaster.com
 
 

Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2008 at 1:00pm
How does Chimpoo like shopping at Vishal? Or does hesheit prefer Big Bazaar? 

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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2008 at 2:15pm
Chimpoo has been sent back to zoo by Mr. market....enough of his foolishness. Now its a serious business and monkey and his developed breed which have started to look better but have a similar kind of brain,meaning money in the form of human beings, have been packed off to the wild.

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Jai Guru!!!

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2008 at 4:20pm
I think Chimpoo would have done better than JM Mutual's fund managers!

Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2008 at 4:37pm
Originally posted by smartcat

I think Chimpoo would have done better than JM Mutual's fund managers!



Now that the Brits have run away, a Chimpoo XI versus a TED XI is all we have to look forward to.


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