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Missing Retail Investors in Bull Market

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Words of Wisdom
Forum Discription: Have you found a golden rule to profitable investing? Share experiences, articulate your thoughts quote a book or a guru.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=711
Printed Date: 04/May/2025 at 8:29pm


Topic: Missing Retail Investors in Bull Market
Posted By: India_Bull
Subject: Missing Retail Investors in Bull Market
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 4:02am

This article is worth reading and quite an eye opener ..Cry 

 

The case of the missing retail investors 
 
The Indian capital market is in danger of turning into a private club
 
PRITHVI HALDEA
Posted online: Wednesday, January 24, 2007 at 0000 hours IST 
  

    
 
 Just how large is India’s retail investor base? At both depositories put together, India’s total demat accounts touched an aggregate figure of 98 lakh on 31 December, 2006. As the number of investors cannot be greater than the demat accounts, this number disproved the 2-3 crore figure that is typically bandied about, which is low in itself. In a booming 100-crore-strong country experiencing rising incomes and a stock market bull run, an investor base of just 98 lakh was worrisome enough.
However, the bigger shock came on January 1, 2007, with the mandating of PAN submissions for every investor. The 98-lakh number was punctured by the revelation that about 43 lakh accounts (nearly half) had to be frozen on lack of PAN verification, leaving this vast country with only 55 lakh investors. Delete multiple and joint accounts opened for convenience or those that get opened automatically on a complimentary basis when one signs up with many banks, and the count falls further.

 
Then came a further jolt. Of the 43 lakh frozen accounts, as many as 22 lakh had no shares in their accounts. While many of these could be the complimentary ones, a large number would be of those who sold off their balances before 31 December to escape detection under the PAN regime (year-end liquidations need to be investigated). What’s also intriguing is the huge balance of 21 lakh accounts that had shares but where investors failed or did not bother to claim these. Who are these people? Dead? Moved abroad? Had minuscule shareholdings not worth the effort? Were joint accounts where only one holder provided the verification? Willing to give up holdings for fear a possible audit trail?

Surely, there would be some investors who had hoped for yet another extension to the deadline. But not only had a long extension already been given, advertising and individual letters had alerted investors of the change — and obtaining a PAN is now easy.

 
While we’re being fed with feel-good numbers of growing retail investors, recent revelations confirm my suspicions
 
Going through my files, I found that there were 40 lakh demat accounts as on January 15, 2003. Over the years, this number was supposed to have grown to almost a crore. But exactly four years later, we are back to square one!

The reasons for this growing investor apathy may be classified into issues of confidence, policies and processes. On the confidence front, the small investor has gone into a shell, ravaged by scams and unnerved by volatility.

Policies, too, are responsible, though the facade is that these are for his benefit. IPOs are no longer a retail draw now that companies are allowed to offer only 10% of their capital to get listed, and worse, only 35% of it is reserved for small investors. This means that allocation to the retail sector is a meagre 3.5% of a company’s capital. This used to be 60% not too long ago! It doesn’t help either that bookbuilding IPOs are not available outside the top cities/towns.

All this, even as the retail investment processes turn more inconvenient and expensive, right from proving ones’ identity to the elaborate IPO application. Many would think that I worry unnecessarily because small investors are now moving towards mutual funds. This does not appear to be true. First, the low allocation of household savings to the capital market is inclusive of mutual funds. Second, it is non-retail that comprises the dominant investor base of mutual funds. Third, the growing corpus has been substantially aided by the rising share prices. Fourth, equity constitutes only a minor part of their corpus. Amazingly, the numbers flagged around are of folios, which are meaningless, as one investor would be counted as 25 in case he has invested in five schemes of five mutual funds or even made 25 applications to the same scheme.

Ten years ago, nearly 25% of household savings were invested in the capital market. Worrisomely, this had fallen to just 1% two years back, with minor improvement last year. We need a serious study on the vehement rejection of the capital market by Indian households. Would the finance minister and/or the Sebi chairman, given their passion for small investors, appoint a high-powered committee to address this ‘financial emergency’? Or else, should we let our public market become a private club?

—Prithvi Haldea is MD, Prime Database. These are his personal views

 
       
 

 

 

 


 
 
  



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India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com



Replies:
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 7:11am

Quite interesting.

Without going into arguments over the numbers mentioned, I would take these positives from this study:
 
1. There is huge untapped potential. Bhaiyya is absolutely right.....hundreds of crores of rupees belonging to retail guys would pour into the markets.
 
2. As of now, I'm a satisfied 'private club' member.
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 8:40am
Very insightful. But I am sure there are many who invest in mutual funds and do not have a demat account. I personally know quite afew of them but the point is it does not make the picture look pretty after that also.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 10:08pm

The article is quite revealing.

I never thought the number is so miniscule that we call it a private club.

Certainly the finance minister and SEBI has a lot to do about it.

Earlier a small investor was given preference in  allottment of a new company's shares. The share base used to be wide and more number of investors were having few shares.

I think it was better.
Certainly more thinking is needed by the policy makers and regulators.


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Shashi Praharaj


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 11:18pm
Retail investors allotment should be increased to compulsory 35%. Brokerage houses will be happy and investors too after huge subscription in recent IPOs.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 11:33pm
Increasing retail investor allotment in IPOs does not solve the issue. What would happen is when we reach 22,000 sensex level in not-so-distant future and then these guys would jump-in....then companies like Chhaganlal & Maganlal will bring IPOs at fancy valuations which will get over-subscribed.
 
The crux of the matter is investor education & changing the general perception about Equities.
 
Presently, the guys who have burnt their hands speculating wildly & their near/dear ones call it a big casino, gambling den, so-called operators manipulations, crook brokers & what not. The blame in reality entirely lies with them.
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 11:43pm

Kulmanji, u r absolutely right. Still scams r happening.recent one being Nissan Copper.SEBI first impose a ban and then after few days or months lift it up.



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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 3:43am

Like 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' fame Robert Kiyoski would say.. Financial Education should be part of our schools & colleges....

More the awareness created more will be public participation..
 
Ppl will come in as they hear more and more success stories of Investors stiking it rich..
 
How many of general public know about Buffet & the likes.. at the same time ask somebody about name of Clinton's girl friend or some little known hollywood actors/actresses, they will know it....More they hear success stories more they would be interested...
 
When ppl hear the story of Kalpana Chawla many kids want to become astronauts..
 
How many kids have you seen to want to become an Investor, Financial Analyst or a Mutual Fund Manager  ? None...
 
All of this will happen...will surely happen... when Sensex touches the likes of 30,000-40,000 or something like that.. Sensex on Fire will make Public Pants on fire... Every Tea walla will be a Technical Analyst.. every Fancy shop walla will be a Fundamedal Analyst...
 
By that time.. I hope all TED'iansClap  would have made their financial future secure and be out of the sensex impending big crash and sipping martini in sunny Hawaii..Cool


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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch


Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 8:40am

Absolutely Rich Dad poor Dad 1st book is a must read for anyone ..Arouses the need in the reader to make the money work..



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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 9:11am
Originally posted by vivekkumar_in

Like 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' fame Robert Kiyoski would say.. Financial Education should be part of our schools & colleges.... 

By that time.. I hope all TED'iansClap  would have made their financial future secure and be out of the sensex impending big crash and sipping martini in sunny Hawaii..Cool
 
CBSE has introduced Financial markets course in their 12 STD syllabus.Crash can happen anytime.Nobody has imagined last May such a big crash will happen in Indian markets.I m sure people not investing in equity will wake up.


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 24/Jan/2007 at 9:38am

I am refering to the big crash at end of the long bull market ( the likes of 1929 crash or Japan crash after it touched 40K), not the smaller crashes in middle of a bull market..

Of course no one can say which is which.. But hopefully the shoe shining boy can tell ;-)

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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2007 at 10:27am
Infact Retail is currently in the market by dribs and drabs mostly through Sip's and other things ....The most dearth of retail is felt in a bear market (measured in terms of years and NOT days) where a lack of Retail leaves mostly Professional's against one another to make money. That creates a lot of spreads on Bid and ask's and makes it difficult for big orders to go through due to lack of liqudity.

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2007 at 11:34am
I will once again quote what Samir Arora said "The biggest losers last year were the retail investors who did not believe in their own country"

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2007 at 11:37am
Devesh jee is at his best!!!
 
Very good one....
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2007 at 12:03pm
Devesh...then the loss was in terms of Oppoturnity lost!

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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!


Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 6:49am
The crux of the matter is investor education & changing the general perception about Equities.


That's says everything .I am the only investor in my family and those few who are in the stock market are purely speculators and doing day trading .None of them knew who is Warren Buffett or Benjamin Graham and their source of inspiration is their neighbor or office friend who made a quick buck in the stock market and that is exactly they are in for .




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