Worldover print is declining as internet and other media  formats gain but that is not so in India as far as prrint is concerned  uptil now at least.HT media editorially ,content-wise and brand-wise would be way ahead but I do not know about management or whether the valuations are attractive.Deccan could be the dark horse.A fairly high forward PE may be acceptable in view of the brand  loyalty and growth   factor.

I have not been able to locate the annual report/Quarterly results of Deccan at their site. Can anybody help with the link, if it is there?

Absolutely. The company derives 90% revenue from advertising and only 10% from subscription that menas that any penny increase in the newspaper would flow directly into the bottomline.

For most of the 20th Century, newspapers were the primary source of information for the American public. Whether the subject was sports, finance, or politics, newspapers reigned supreme. Just as important, their ads were the easiest way to find job opportunities or to learn the price of groceries at your town’s supermarkets. The great majority of families therefore felt the need for a paper every day, but understandably most didn’t wish to pay for two. Advertisers preferred the paper with the most circulation, and readers tended to want the paper with the most ads and news pages. This circularity led to a law of the newspaper jungle: Survival of the Fattest.

Thus, when two or more papers existed in a major city (which was almost universally the case a century ago), the one that pulled ahead usually emerged as the stand-alone winner. After competition disappeared, the paper’s pricing power in both advertising and circulation was unleashed. Typically, rates for both advertisers and readers would be raised annually – and the profits rolled in. For owners this was economic heaven. (Interestingly, though papers regularly – and often in a disapproving way – reported on the profitability of, say, the auto or steel industries, they never enlightened readers about their own Midas-like situation. Hmmm . . .) As long ago as my 1991 letter to shareholders, I nonetheless asserted that this insulated world was changing, writing that “the media businesses . . . will prove considerably less marvelous than I, the industry, or lenders thought would be the case only a few years ago.” Some publishers took umbrage at both this remark and other warnings from me that followed. Newspaper properties, moreover, continued to sell as if they were indestructible slot machines. In fact, many intelligent newspaper executives who regularly chronicled and analyzed important worldwide events were either blind or indifferent to what was going on under their noses.

In Berkshire’s world, Stan Lipsey does a terrific job running the Buffalo News, and I am enormously proud of its editor, Margaret Sullivan. The News’ penetration of its market is the highest among that of this country’s large newspapers. We also do better financially than most metropolitan newspapers, even though Buffalo’s population and business trends are not good. Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide. True, we have the leading online news operation in Buffalo, and it will continue to attract more viewers and ads. However, the economic potential of a newspaper internet site – given the many alternative sources of information and entertainment that are free and only a click away – is at best a small fraction of that existing in the past for a print newspaper facing no competition. For a local resident, ownership of a city’s paper, like ownership of a sports team, still produces instant prominence. With it typically comes power and influence. These are ruboffs that appeal to many people with money. Beyond that, civic-minded, wealthy individuals may feel that local ownership will serve their community well. That’s why Peter Kiewit bought the Omaha paper more than 40 years ago. We are likely therefore to see non-economic individual buyers of newspapers emerge, just as we have seen such buyers acquire major sports franchises. Aspiring press lords should be careful, however: There’s no rule that says a newspaper’s revenues can’t fall below its expenses and that losses can’t mushroom. Fixed costs are high in the newspaper business, and that’s bad news when  unit volume heads south. As the importance of newspapers diminishes, moreover, the “psychic”   value of possessing one will wane, whereas owning a sports franchise will likely retain its cachet. Unless we face an irreversible cash drain, we will stick with the News, just as we’ve said that we would.Charlie and I love newspapers – we each read five a day – and believe that a free and energetic press is a key ingredient for maintaining a great democracy. We hope that some combination of print and online will ward off economic doomsday for newspapers, and we will work hard in Buffalo to develop a sustainable businesss model. I think we will be successful. But the days of lush profits from our newspaper are over.

I have also read this letter today. However, I feel that India is at a enviable position with regards to all the communication media. Though in the western world , things have evolved gradually, newspapers, radio, television, satellite, dth, internet, blogging etc, in India most of these are maturing/gaining scale at the same time. It can be very disruptive for some of the weaker mediums.

I also tend to beleive that with the growth of internet and electronic media also, the importance of newspaper will not be lost. There is enough room for both of them to exist in India.

In Mumbai recently Hindusthan Times is gaining its popularity. Its the leading newspaer in Delhi. In Mumbai also it is gradually gaining strenth. I am observing this paper closely right from its launch in Mumbai. The sales and popularity are rapidly increasing. Their marketing strategy is also unique. With a two year subscription, they provide HT at around 175/- per year. The contents of the paper and quality also is increasing gradually. Recently I saw they are publising a article of Udayan Maukherjee daily in their business section.

Now they have started a business paper "Mint", with collaboration of Wall Street Journal. Its a little different kind of business paper. Though I am not very satisfied about the quality of this pink paper, still I beleive that they will groom it into a successful business paper.

The reason of writing all this, is to invite a discussion on this KK Birla controlled company. The share price is around 175/- (FV-2.00). The Times Group controlled by Benett Coleman is not a public company.

I feel, this company also is available cheap. I dont own this stock. But since we all in TED feel that media has a good future, I though HT at this stage merits at least a discussion.

I request all the TEDDIES to have their opinion and analysis on this stock.

HT has diversified into Business paper with WSJ and Radio(Fever)  with Virgin. They have opened four stations in Delhi,Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata. The problem is neither they are a leader in Print nor in Radio. I hear no ads on Fever(Mumbai) while there r lots of ads on Radio Mirchi(ENIL).

About the company: Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd was initially formed as a partnership firm in 1938 and went public in 2003. Deccan Chronicle, the flagship newspaper of the Company is the leading English daily in Hyderabad and Chennai. Besides Deccan Chronicle, the Company also publishes Andhra Bhoomi in Telugu. The circulation and readership is growing at a steady pace. In the ‘All India English Category’, Deccan Chronicle’s readership has, however, slipped from top 10 positions over the years.

Product Analysis: Alongwith Deccan Chronicle, the company publishes several supplements like Hyderabad Chronicle, Lifestyle, Vizag Chronicle, Teen Chronicle, School Chronicle, DC Estate which are targeted at specific readership segments. It publishes seven editions of the Deccan Chronicle in Andhra Pradesh. Andhra Bhoomi, a Telugu weekly caters to the youth, children, women and men containing various serials on subjects like romance, mythological, teenage love story, crime, and all of these are run as serials. Despite competition from leading English newspapers, Deccan Chronicle has been able to maintain its leadership position in Hyderabad. As per its IPO prospectus, Deccan Chronicle boasted of one of the lowest costs per thousand (“CPT”) reader’s English newspaper. The company does not wish to foray into fast growing broadcasting business and wants to focus on its core competency.

Financial Performance: Between FY03 and FY06, the topline has grown at a CAGR of 147%. Keeping operating and financial costs under control, the company has managed to increase bottomline at 165% CAGR. Operating profit margins and net profit margins have been maintained at impressive levels and currently stood at 32% and 19% respectively in FY06. The company has debt to equity ratio of 1.74 and has an interest coverage ratio of 6.6, thus leaving it in good position to cover its financial expenses.

For the nine months ended December 2006, the company recorded a 68% YoY growth in topline and 142% YoY growth in bottomline

I feel that it is a good time to pick up DCHL. It is the cheapest stock availalbe in the print media space (much cheaper than HT Media and Jagran). Besides that it is the most cost effecient player. Their NPM have been more than the OPM of HT Media etc. They are also launching papers in 4-5 different cities - Bangalore, Trichy, Coimbatore etc. This should provide good growth to the company for the next couple of years.

The icing on the cake is that DCHL has increased its ad rates by 30% from May. That would mean the July-Sept quarter would be blockbuster quarter for them - huge operating leverage and cost efficiency will ensure that ad revenue gain flows to bottom line.

The only trouble some part is that they have a huge debt - 300 cr+ despite newspapers being high cash generators and significant increase in debtors in the last year.. These may partly be due to the launch of their paper in Chennai, but still they are points worth keeping at the back of the mind. They have also diluted equity twice after the public issue in 2005.. That is quite a lot.

But even after these negative points, I feel that DCHL is good for 30% growth for the next 3 years, even more. At current prices, it is a good buy..

Note: I have investments in DCHL

I second that DCHL idea. The management is also very able and honest but generally growth rates in print is lagging the Tv companies.

Mr. Basant ,yes I hadnt considered this a possiblity in India because print is booming right now but now that you mention it I too tend to agree that the best of readers-being targetted by advertisers may move/is moving away to internet,TV : it may take time but its a distinct possiblity considering my personal observations on the trend towards the newer media among all but the old die-hard addicts.Yet we may not face the decline as in the West immediately because of the numbers involved but the trend is as you say clear because people seem to have lesser and lesser time to bother.

Deccan chronicle came out with good numbers for this quarter also.. sales almost same at 147 cr with net profit of 25 cr. This included other income of +20 cr and tax outgo of -57 cr. Broadly in line with last quarter numbers.

more than this quarter results the guidance of 11-12 Rs/sh next year has led to the very sharp rally in the stock. It is up by more than 20% in the last 3 days. also at Rs 11/sh eps, even the current price of 203 discounts its fy08 earnings less than 20 times.. cheapest among all print media companies.. for the next 1-2 years at least, i dont think there is any trouble owning this stock.

Here, more than 150 million people read a newspaper every day -- compared with 97 million Americans and 48 million Germans. Circulation numbers in India are soaring, and advertising is expected to grow by 15 percent this year.

The crowded Indian newsstand is a cacophony of scripts: In New Delhi, papers are published in 15 languages, from English and Hindi to more regional tongues, such as southern India's Telugu language.

One popular New Delhi newspaper shop offers 117 Indian dailies laid out like an all-you-can-read buffet with Bollywood stars, obscure acronyms, market data and cricket scores jostling for space in every paper.

Swaggering newspaper companies are betting that there's more room to grow, especially in rural areas where readership remains low. They continue to launch new papers and new editions across this country of 1.1 billion people.

The optimism is in large part due to India's economy, expected to grow by 8 percent this year, and the rising incomes and education levels that go with it.

The newspapers are also flourishing because India's media landscape remains firmly rooted in the ink-stained 20th century, when the Internet and cable TV had yet to realize the dominance they have today in the West.

Despite a booming technology industry that's helped fuel economic growth, only 8.5 million of Indians use the Web, according to government figures. And even some who use computers don't see the Internet usurping print.

"The feel of reading a newspaper is very different," said Hemant Suri, a human resources consultant in New Delhi, as he browsed a newspaper rack. "The Internet cannot substitute."

And while cable TV is growing quickly, it's still prohibitively expensive for most Indian families -- especially next to newspapers, which at just a few rupees, cost less than a cup of tea.

Private radio stations are barred by law from broadcasting news, leaving newspapers as the preferred medium, both for the public and for advertisers, say media experts.

Last year, Raju Narisetti left the Wall Street Journal, where he was editor of the Europe edition, to launch a new business paper in India published by a leading company, Hindustan Times Media Ltd. Narisetti said the differences in business climates have been staggering.

In Europe, it was a good month when circulation and advertising numbers didn't fall, he said.

"Here, I've sat in meetings where the CEO pounds his fist on the table when the advertising guy says that it's going to be a 30 percent increase in advertising," said Narisetti. "It's a big shift in mind-set to realize that it's a market where 30 percent growth is considered just average."

HT Media says its revenues are up 28 percent so far this fiscal year, which runs from April to March, and earnings per share are up more than 200 percent. While most Indian newspapers are privately owned, analysts agree that other newspaper companies are seeing similar profits.

In comparison, 2006 saw the first decline in American newspaper revenue in a non-recession year, according to Morgan Stanley, whose analysts predict 2007 will be just as difficult.

The Indian press currently reaches about 35 percent of the country's adults, reports the World Association of Newspapers. In the U.S., 17 percent of people buy a daily newspaper, although most newspapers are shared with at least one person, according to the Newspaper Association of America.

Circulation of U.S. papers has dropped steadily over the past two decades from 63 million in 1985 to 53 million in 2005, according to the Newspaper Association of America. Readership is a higher number because it measures the number of people who read newspapers.

In Britain, circulation has fallen 3 percent between 2001 and 2005, while in Germany, it has fallen 11 percent over the same period, according to the World Association of Newspapers.

In India, however, circulation has risen 33 percent from 2001 to 2005, according to India's Registrar of Newspapers.

And the potential is huge. In a country where the adult literacy rate is 61 percent, there are still some 300 million literate people who aren't reading newspapers -- yet. Observers expect both the literacy rate and the number of newspaper readers to rise.

The Indian press is vibrant and opinionated. Staples include lurid crime reports and stories of miracles in far-off villages, while the "Page 3" gossip sections, celebrated institutions at several papers, trumpet the latest starlet sightings.

One thing they all have in common: they're cheap. Priced at an average of about 2 rupees (5 cents), just about everyone can afford to read them.

"You end up spending more on a candy than a newspaper in India," said Anurag Batra, CEO of the marketing firm Exchange4Media.

The low prices also mean it's common for people to read up to four or five newspapers a day.

Suri, a New Delhi resident, reads four newspapers every day -- and he's the slacker in the family. His grandfather used to read 12.

"I read them just to get a flavor of what's happening across the country," he said. "There's a sheer joy of reading a newspaper."

Much of the industry's growth has been in English newspapers, which have become status symbols akin to washing machines, foreign cars, and brand-name purses for the legions eager to join the ranks of the urban, new India.

"A family might want to buy an English paper because they want to show that they are upmarket and their lifestyle has improved," said Bhupesh Trivedi, who runs the Indian Business Observer Web sites.

Roughly 11 million English newspapers are sold every day, while nearly 34 million Hindi papers are sold, according to India's Registrar of Newspapers.

India's growing affluence is also reflected in the business media, where at least five daily national business papers compete to feed a new hunger for financial news.

Despite the boom-time fever surrounding the print business, few believe that Indian newspapers can continue to grow forever.

"I have no doubt that the Indian media market will end up mimicking the West in terms of newspapers ending up not growing at all and the Internet becoming big," said Narisetti. "But I think it's 10 or 15 years away."

American or European newspaper executives wanting to lift their spirits might want to chat with Nita Puri and her clients at her stand of 117 newspapers.

"My morning coffee doesn't taste good if I don't have a newspaper to read," she said.

 If as Narisetti says newspapers stagnate in 10 or 15 years,investors will do well to focus on the internet space for stupenous returns.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,239415,00.html? - Will Murdoch bring the end of print at WSJ?

News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch mused aloud about the advantages of eliminating the print edition of The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) just as he was hammering out a deal with the paper's parent company to protect its journalistic independence if he were to become its new owner.

Spinning a 'what if' scenario for Time magazine, Mr Murdoch bet the WSJ would be more profitable if it spent US$100 million a year to employ top business writers and got rid of the presses, paper and trucks and put everything online for free. 'How long would it take for the advertising to come? It would be successful,' Mr Murdoch told the magazine in next week's issue.

Mr Murdoch offered to pay a steep premium for Dow Jones of US$60 a share in April, but has been stymied by questions from critics about whether he would use the WSJ to further his business agenda, as they accuse him of doing with some of his other assets. News Corp owns newspapers including The Times of London, satellite television operations, movie and television studios, the Fox TV network and channels including Fox News.

Source: Biz Times http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,239415,00.html? - article here