India GDP.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Economy, Markets and commodities
Forum Name: Indian Economy - Powering Ahead!
Forum Discription: Talk about various facets of the Indian economy, it could relate to GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, disinvestments.Is India at the crux of becoming an economic SUPERPOWER?
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=433
Printed Date: 04/May/2025 at 4:06pm
Topic: India GDP.
Posted By: Equity Buff
Subject: India GDP.
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 10:50am
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Indian Economy (GDP) has recorded a growth of 8.9% in Q1 of 2006-07.
Looks like the economy has got very good momentum now. Star performers were trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors.
Current account deficit widened to US$ 6.1 billion. Could this lead to a depreciation of the rupee and thereby lead to spike in inflation and thus interest rates ? Or may be now that oil prices have cooled off substantially the worst maybe behind us and going forward with robust exports and lower oil prices the current account deficit should narrow.
Views.
Rgds.
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Replies:
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 11:25am
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The Indian Rupee could display near term strength towards 45.50, but that should be used to sell it as it looks ready to decline towards 47-47.50 over the 6-Months time frame. The Risk to this view is a fall below 45 in the Dollar-Rupee rate. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 28/Nov/2006 at 1:26pm
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This report has been taken from http://www.Debtonnet.com - www.Debtonnet.com
NEW DELHI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - India's trade deficit widened to $6.21 billion in October from $5.33 billion in September and $2.93 billion a year earlier as demand for imports in the world's second-fastest-growing major economy outstripped exports. The government said on Tuesday the trade gap widened to $30.23 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year that began in April from $25.19 billion in the same period last year. "We see a current account deficit of 1.8 percent of GDP for the fiscal year 2006/07, which would be higher compared with 1.3 percent in 2005/06," said Rajeev Malik, senior economist at JP Morgan in Singapore. Bond and currency markets were relatively unchanged after the data, with the yield on the 10-year bond holding around 7.38 percent and the Indian rupee hovering around 44.75 per dollar. "Oil imports are particularly strong, despite a decline in crude prices. Export performance is disappointing," Malik added. Exports in October rose 11.3 percent from a year earlier to $9.62 billion, while imports rose an annual 36.8 percent to $15.83 billion, the provisional data showed. Oil imports in October rose 55.5 percent from a year earlier to $5.35 billion. Exports in the April-October period were $69.52 billion, compared with $56.93 billion in the year-ago period. The government's full-year export target is $126 billion, a rise of 22.3 percent over the previous year. Imports in the first seven months of 2006/07 were $99.75 billion, compared with $82.12 billion in the year-ago period, with oil accounting for about one-third of total imports. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2006 at 3:53pm
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From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azoWQgo0fN7k&refer=home - Bloomberg
India to Overtake China's Growth, Credit Suisse Says
By Cherian Thomas Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- India will overtake China next year as the world's fastest-growing major economy on rising consumer and government spending, Credit Suisse's chief Asia economist Dong Tao said. Credit Suisse raised its 2007 growth forecast for India's $775 billion economy, Asia's fourth biggest, to 10 percent from 8.5 percent, Tao said. China's $2.2 trillion economy is expected to grow 9.9 percent next year from 10.4 percent in 2006, he said. Surpassing China's expansion rate for the first time at least two decades may help lure the overseas investment India needs to replace dilapidated port and roads and create manufacturing jobs. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh needs rapid growth to lift 350 million people out of poverty in the world's second-most populous nation. ``India's growth story will only get stronger,'' said D. H. Pai Panandiker, president at RPG Foundation, an economic policy group in New Delhi. ``There is a lot of money available to spend in India.'' India's benchmark stock index, which has risen 38 percent this year, touched a record on Dec. 7 as overseas funds bought a net $8.52 billion of stocks after having invested a record $10.7 billion in 2005. Per-capita income in India has doubled in the last nine years and the number of households earning an annual income of at least $10,000 is rising more than 20 percent a year, according to McKinsey & Co. Commercial banks' outstanding loans have doubled in the past three years and has risen more than 30 percent since April 1. Rising Incomes India had the highest average salary increase in the Asia- pacific region in 2006 gaining 13.8 percent in 2006 compared with 14.1 percent gain in 2005, according to human-resources consulting firm Hewitt Associates Inc. Salaries in India may rise by 12.3 percent to 15 percent in 2007. ``The private consumption story in India is growing,'' Credit Suisse's Tao said in a phone interview from Hong Kong today. ``At this moment, India surpassing China as the world's fastest growing major economy is a possibility. India is more resilient toward a global slowdown compared to China.'' The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last month growth among its 30 members will cool to 2.5 percent in 2007 from 3.2 percent estimated for this year, the weakest since 2003 and dragged down by a U.S. slowdown. The 2007 forecast was below the 2.9 percent anticipated in May. Global Trade China, which accounts for 5 percent of global trade, has become the fourth-largest U.S. export market, from the 15th before it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. It has run up record trade surpluses with the U.S., including a $202 billion trade gap last year that was the largest imbalance between any two countries in history. China's economy has grown at an annual 10.1 percent pace on average in the three years ended 2005, prompting the central bank to take steps to prevent the economy from overheating. The central bank on Dec. 11 sold 120 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) of one-year bills, the biggest sale this year, to drain cash from the banking system and prevent growth in credit and investment from rebounding. The bank has also forced lenders to set aside more money as reserves and raised interest rates. India's economy, which has expanded at an average 8.2 percent in the past three years, is being driven by local demand as the country's exports make up only a 12th of gross domestic product and 0.8 percent of global trade. `Policy Risks' ``The issue is not whether India grows faster than China. The issue is whether India's growth is sustainable,'' said Rajeev Malik, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Singapore. ``India has been accelerating and policy risks are greater in India. India is also an opportunity because so much can be done on infrastructure.'' Prime Minister Singh today begins a four-day visit to Japan to sell the India growth story and seek help in funding his government's five-year $320 billion plan to improve the country's roads, ports and other infrastructure. India now wants to draw investments from Japan and narrow the gap in overseas funding with China, which began unshackling its economy in 1978, 13 years before India. India's northern neighbor got $60 billion of foreign direct investment in 2005 compared with India's $7.5 billion. General Motors Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc. and other companies have invested in about 3,000 new factories and expansion projects worth $21 billion in India since May 2004 to cater to growing demand, according to the finance ministry. Government Spending ``Capacity additions in the steel, auto, metals and consumer goods sector seem to be gathering pace in response to strong consumer spending and a pick-up in public investment spending in the power, roads and highway sectors,'' Tao said. Industries such as steel and cement are also benefiting from Prime Minister Singh's decision to increase spending on roads, ports and other infrastructure by a quarter to 992 billion rupees ($22 billion) in the year that started April 1 in a bid to attract overseas manufacturing companies and spur growth to 10 percent over a decade. ``We do anticipate the government's infrastructure spending to go through,'' Tao said. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 18/Jan/2007 at 5:34pm
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http://www.asianinvestor.net/print.aspx?CIID=71261 - Top fund manager remains India bull
Jon Thorn is the managing director of the Hong Kong-based India Capital Fund, a $260 million fund dedicated to Indian equities, as well as the $60 million India Institutional Fund, a segregated account for American endowments. The fund began in 1994 as a small-cap India play seeded by a George Soros fund, but was relaunched in 2001 to include companies of any size.
Why did the Indian stock market do so well in 2006? Because it offered the most accessible earnings growth in the world. Different markets in Asia such as Taiwan look cheaper, but they have problems that you don’t have in India. For an Asia-Pacific portfolio that can allocate across the region, India has to look among the best destinations because its earnings growth is spectacular. What about on a global basis? Take any major market: America, the United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil, China or Japan, and compare them to India. You’ll find India enjoys terrific domestic demand, with one of the lowest level of exports as a percentage of GDP. It’s not exposed to exogenous shocks. Compare that immunity and robust domestic consumption with any other market. Tell me: where is better? I’m open to suggestions. The more people understand this, the more they will want to have exposure to India. It’s not rocket science. What happened last May and June, when the market corrected by 30%? Everything got ahead of itself. And that goes for Russia, Turkey and other emerging markets too. There has been too much liquidity, and people were allocating too much to these markets. Everything hit the floor. But the good stuff, like India and Russia, got up again. The bad stuff like Turkey hasn’t. This reminded people that high-quality assets are lower risk than low-quality assets. Is India likely to experience another sharp correction? I don’t think so. What you had in May was the world’s central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, out to shrink liquidity. The result was nastier than people had expected. I suspect the liquidity target won’t be pursued as robustly for a while by central banks. So much of the growth in the world economy should continue in 2007. In India specifically, there’s a terrific amount of cash that was and still is sitting on the sidelines. So not all the money that can come in has – yet. What are valuations like in India? We’d say it’s fair value. Indian companies’ balance sheets have the lowest debt-to-equity ratios in the world. So our upside outlook looks even better with just a little bit of leverage. In our view, Indian shares are not expensive. Why hasn’t that cash been put to work? Fear. Both domestic and foreign fund managers have raised several hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth for India allocations, but it hasn’t been invested because portfolio managers thought there would be another downward leg. They missed their spot. The assumption, the consensus view, was that India’s markets would do nothing in the second and third quarters, and would look attractive in the fourth. Those investors who thought that way have left a lot of money on the table. In my view, however, you should buy something when it looks cheap. When will this money hit the market? Since November there has been a buying panic. We’ve seen very heavy volumes. A lot of this money is being allocated. Investors who had been waiting for another downturn have capitulated. Hedge funds are getting excited. Mutual fund companies have raised huge amounts for India stories but the money has sat in bank accounts; sooner or later it has to be invested. We’ve been fully invested since July. Does your earnings outlook include all sectors? It would pertain to most sectors. There are a few that are a little ahead of themselves, like construction, but nothing stands out as way overvalued. We tend to make big allocations to certain sectors. We like banks, for example. They’re cheap. Of course, it may appear this way to me and not to others; it’s a top-down asset allocation call. How much turnover is in your portfolio? We prefer high concentrations in any sector that we like, and we tend to hold these stocks for three to five years. Indian management is reputedly very good; what’s your view? The quality varies from world beating to the mentality of robber barons. It’s unusual to find that range within a single country in Asia, outside of Japan. But Indian companies file quarterly statements, unlike in Japan, so it’s much easier to prove which ones are good in India. Will earnings growth in 2007 match the pace of 2006? I have no idea. But earnings will certainly go up. We assume growth won’t be radically lower than in 2006. What about beta or index returns? Again, I don’t know. It seems unlikely that they’ll be as good as in 2006 only because 2006 was such a good year. If you asked me purely as a bet, I’d say Indian shares would probably not do as well – but they’ll still be strong performers. It all comes down to earnings growth, which has been solid for the past two years. What kind of economic growth do you expect? Compared to the rest of the region, I’m not sure; some other places look as though they also have good prospects for growth. In India, we expect a minimum 15% year-on-year earnings growth over the next two years. Over time, that is what the stock market should do, although whether we see that growth in our pocket is another question. What are the risks to that growth? Absent a concerted attempt at monetary tightening by the world’s central banks, all of these Asian markets can show upside and they should. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2007 at 8:36am
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Goldman Sachs is at it again......
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_poised_to_overtake_United_States_by_2050_Report/articleshow/1411052.cms - India to overtake United States by 2050
Productivity growth will help India sustain over 8% growth until 2020 and become the second largest economy in the world, ahead of the US, by 2050, Goldman Sachs has said, scaling up estimates of the country's prospects in its October 2003 research paper widely known as the BRICs report.
The original report had projected that India's GDP would outstrip Japan's by 2032 and that in 30 years, it would be the world's third largest economy after China and the US. The new report goes one step further by moving India up from No. 3 and No. 2 in the global sweepstakes of tomorrow. Goldman Sachs' research arm said in a global research paper released on Monday that India's growth acceleration since 2003 represented a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn. It said productivity growth drove nearly half of overall growth and expected it to continue for some years. "We project India's potential or sustainable growth rate at about 8% until 2020. The implication is that India's contribution to world growth will be even greater (and faster) than implied in our previous BRICs research," Goldman Sachs Global Research said. The vote of increased confidence from the world's largest investment bank, whose previous chairman Henry Paulson is now treasury secretary in the Bush administration, comes when India is easing into its new seat in the global political arena as a nuclear power and consolidating its economic might as the world's services backbone. The paper said a turnaround in manufacturing productivity was central to the ratcheting up of productivity growth. The private sector was the principal driver of this turnaround, as it improved efficiency in the face of increased competition due to the cumulative effects of a decade of reforms. "The underlying reasons are: increased openness to trade, investment in information and communication technology, and greater financial deepening. These factors still have some distance to run," it said. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 26/Jan/2007 at 5:09pm
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I couldn't decide where to post this interesting article sourced from DNA Money.
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1076393 - India is world’s number two in intangible value
I can make a whole lot more money skillfully managing intangible assets than managing tangible assets —Warren Buffet, CEO Berkshire Hathaway. It’s a wonder that Warren Buffet isn’t managing India Inc. A recent global survey from Brand Finance, which specialises in brand valuation and intangible asset valuation, reveals that India notches the second highest proportion of intangible value. This partly reflects the dominance of the software sector in the Indian stock market. Switzerland leads the pack in the ‘Global Intangible Tracker 2006’ study which covers 5000-plus companies quoted in 25 countries over five years. The headliner: David Haigh, chief executive of Brand Finance says we could easily overtake the leader country over a ten-year period. Intangibles are not seen and hence often not appreciated. The surveyed companies had a total Enterprise Value of $36.2 trillion end-2005. But know this, 62% of the value of the world’s quoted companies is now intangible. Advertising is the most intangible sector globally, with all of its value being intangible, and sectors with very high proportions of intangible asset value are media (91% intangible value), pharmaceuticals (89%), reveals the study. Our drivers of intangible power: It’s not Scotch mist or airy fairy. A panoply of categories and brands is firing India’s intangible-value growth. Says Unni Krishnan, managing director, Brand Finance India: Whilst diversified Indian umbrella brands like Tata, Godrej and Reliance make significant contributions, the rise of sectoral specialists cannot be overlooked. From ICICI in banking and financial services to Jet Airways in airlines, Wipro in IT Services and L&T in construction and engineering, Indian brands are poised to make their mark on the global stage. Even smaller companies like a Ritu Kumar in fashion or PNC in Bollywood are making rapid strides in building brand and IP value. Haigh lists the main intangible asset categories for India as marketing, artistic, technological, customer and contractual. `` All these areas have powered India to its high position. However in absolute terms, areas like IT/ Telecoms/ Software; Service/ Outsourcing; Film/ Media and Medical/ Pharmaceutical are likely to create the biggest gains over the next 10 years.’’ His explanation on each: Marketing: Companies like Reliance, Hutch, Bharti, Tata and Godrej have strong Indian brands which have generated significant brand value in the Indian market. Most are not well known outside India but this will change organically as Indian companies continue to expand abroad. The larger, more sophisticated Indian companies are buying brands and marketing intangibles as well as creating home-grown ones. For example, Tata bought Typhoo tea in the UK and Godrej bought Erasmic bodycare products and others. The main difference this will have is that accounting standards require that acquired intangibles are capitalised in balance sheets, so the number and value of disclosed intangible assets will increase. Artistic: Companies in the film and recorded rights industry create this type of intangible asset. The accounting standard-setters had Hollywood in mind when thinking of this because Disney and other major Hollywood studies generate huge intangible values from their film and artistic rights. There are also huge merchandising rights associated with them. The same value creation opportunity is clearly attached to Bollywood. Technological: Companies like Ranbaxy have already created huge value in the area of patents and know-how. It is already the largest supplier of prescription drugs in the US market as measured by volume. But volume lags value because most of its products are off-patent generics or contract-manufactured. Ranbaxy has a strategy of creating original pharmaceutical molecules and has thousands of trained pharmacists, engineers and technical people in India to achieve this. Customer: Companies like WIPRO in the outsourcing business with customers in the developed world have created huge customer relationships which are intangible assets. These will create a long stream of revenue into the future as they are based on intelligent, low-cost, English-speaking service which India is ideally equipped to provide. Contractual: Companies like Mittal Steel have massive contracts for raw materials and supply of finished steel. These often have huge embedded value. One other intangible asset in this area is ‘assembled workforce’. In the case of India the quality of assembled workforce is one of the most powerful assets for the future. At a national level this is perhaps the most important intangible asset as many of the others come from this source. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Jan/2007 at 8:53am
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Here's a view from TN NINAN in BS titled http://www.business-standard.com/opinionanalysis/storypage.php?tab=r&autono=272780&subLeft=2&leftnm=4 - 'COOL NOT CHILL'
A year ago, the nervous observer of the Indian corporate scene might have been forgiven for suspecting that the (then) three-year-old boom could be petering out. Although the results of some 3,000 listed companies were still pretty handsome, it was clear that margins were beginning to get squeezed. Today, the happy truth is that such nervousness can be put aside. Corporate results show that firms have continued to power ahead, and that demand remains buoyant in most markets. The only worry is that inflation has continued to ratchet up to a level where the word ‘over-heating’ suggests itself.
Enter the governor of the Reserve Bank of
If Dr Reddy were to study the corporate scene from a medium-term perspective, From a short-term perspective, the trick that Dr Reddy has to perform (during his quarterly monetary review) next week is to let the system continue to barrel along, while addressing the inflation problem. There is no getting away from the fact that his assumptions for the year have gone badly wrong: not only is inflation ruling above his preferred band of 5-5.5 per cent, but money supply has grown much faster than he had expected, and so has bank credit. Those numbers tell us that the governor has to act, and the obvious measure would be to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points, perhaps more. May be other steps need to be taken too. The government has tried to do its bit by addressing supply side issues, but the baton is really in the governor’s hand.
But before he makes his move, the question that he should answer is whether the numbers have gone wrong because growth has been under-estimated. In other words, is the economy growing even faster than the official numbers tell us? Everyone who knows how the GDP numbers are put together knows also that there are huge question marks over the reliability of those numbers; accurate data simply do not exist. So if one were to look for pointers in the areas where the numbers are in fact reliable, the GDP figures come across as being under-estimates. It is hard to understand, for instance, how truck sales could be growing at 30 per cent (on top of previous good years) if the non-services sector—industry and agriculture—is growing only 6 per cent. And remember that the speed of truck movement has increased because of the better roads; if anything, this efficiency gain should mean that we need fewer trucks. Exports have grown at more than 20 per cent for several years running, including this year—despite the rising rupee. And the corporate numbers do not suggest over-all growth of just 15 per cent (9 per cent plus 6 per cent inflation). What if we were to assume for the moment that the GDP is in fact growing faster than the official numbers tell us? That would explain why the RBI governor got his maths badly wrong—the system would therefore require more money supply and more credit than he had bargained for. If on top of that the finance ministry is right in arguing that the causes of inflation this year have little to do with money supply, then the governor’s task becomes more complicated. On balance, a hike in interest rates is inescapable, and banks are doing it anyway because that is the only way in which they can get more deposits to use for feeding the demand for credit. But it would be a pity if we read the macro-economic picture wrong and ended up with more draconian measures, for that might squeeze growth when there is no need to do so.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 1:36pm
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From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3T4sci1PV1I&refer=home - Bloomberg
S&P Raises India's Debt Rating to Investment Grade
By Cherian Thomas Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's raised India's debt rating for the first time in 14 years to investment grade on the strength of record growth and foreign exchange reserves. S&P said it has a stable outlook on India's local and foreign currency debt and raised it by one notch to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, from BB+, assigned since December 1992. "The upgrade reflects the country's strong economic prospects and external balance sheet,'' the rating company said in an e-mailed statement today from Singapore. It "supports a weak, but improving, fiscal position.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3T4sci1PV1I&refer=home -------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 2:00pm
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While our anchors will not discuss this upgrade in ratings these news clippings have major long term ramifications. Many funds follow the S&P ratings chart to allocate capital and that new money could be at the corner - waiting to come. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 4:48pm
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Mostly big funds buy big stocks. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 12:06pm
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http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1077109 - Standard & Poor’s (S&P) finally followed Moody’s Fitch Ratings to raise India’s sovereign rating to investment grade on Tuesday.
What does this mean for India and its financial markets? India has always been viewed by foreign investors as investment grade, considering the spreads given to Indian corporate debt issued and traded abroad are on a par with other or even better than other investment-grade issuers. However, many investors look at the lower of the ratings of any paper before considering an investment. The upgrade is more beneficial to Indian corporates and institutions who are constrained by the sovereign rating - for they can’t be rated above the sovereign. The main beneficiaries here would be AAA-rated entities such as State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HDFC and others, who borrow actively outside the country. The banking sector as a whole is a beneficiary as funds would be cheaper and more easily available. The rupee is set to gain against the US dollar on the upgrade as expectations of foreign flows into the country will boost the currency. The rating upgrade is sentiment positive for stock markets as the markets will factor in expectations of further flows. However it is a headache for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as it is grappling with inflationary trends brought about by high money supply growth and high credit growth.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2007 at 8:43am
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It does not appear that NW18 is going to list today. I still dont see any notices to either BSE or NSE, and icicidirect still shows the the share as "NA" without assigning a code to it. So i dont think its happening today!  On a totally different note, check out this piece of news: India bowls S&P over after 16 years Global ratings agency Standard & Poor's has
raised India's sovereign credit rating to investment grade after a gap
of nearly 16 years. S&P said it had raised sovereign credit ratings on India to 'BBB-/A-3' with a stable outlook from 'BB+/B,' which reflected the country's strong economic prospects and external balance sheet, as also its deep capital market, which supported a weak but improving fiscal position. The ratings reflected the growing strength of India's macro-economic stability, Finance Minister P Chidambaram told media persons on Tuesday. S&P is the third global ratings agency to upgrade India. Fitch Ratings upgraded India to investment grade in August 2006 and Moody's in January 2004. S&P had downgraded India to sub-investment grade in March 1991, when the country faced a foreign exchange crisis. Now, the country's foreign-exchange reserves of $178.12 billion are more than 16 times the short-term debt and five times the gross financing requirements, providing a buffer from changes in external and domestic investor confidence. The revision in rating to investment grade will enable a large number of investors with huge investible funds to take an India exposure. Many overseas pension and insurance funds have kept away from investing in issues by Indian companies because of the country's sub-investment grade ratings. Indian companies and banks raised $26.74 billion through loans and debt issues overseas in 2006. "This is a momentous occasion," said Madan Menon, co-CEO at Barclays India, which has helped a large number of companies raise funds overseas in the last few years. Describing the upgrade as "adding sheen to India's growth story," Siddhartha Roy, chief economist of the Tata Group, said the cost of overseas borrowing by Indian companies would come down marginally. Chanda Kochhar, joint managing director, ICICI Bank, said the upgrade would make some difference in terms of pricing and attracting an additional pool of investors but warned that ratings on India would be pressured by the country's weak fiscal profile. However, Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ping Chew said, "Gradual reforms and consistent monetary and fiscal policy stances have also sustained macroeconomic stability." This has led to strong growth prospects and attracted foreign and non-resident Indian capital. India's strong institutions have also provided for relative stability in policy, politics, and business environments against volatility usually associated with lower income levels." Source: Business Standard |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Feb/2007 at 7:30am
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 4:13pm
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http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=aTyGjtMJxPM4 - Sell Yuan, Buy Rupee? A New Carry Comes to Asia ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 5:13pm
India's growth rate is close to China's; but signs of overheating suggest that this pace cannot be sustainedhttp://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8625681 - http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8625681 |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 10:22pm
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Fortune article.......
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/08/news/international/pluggedin_murphy_india.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007020911 - India the Superpower? Think again
Plug in the words "India" and "superpower" into an Internet search engine and it's happy to oblige - with 1.3 million hits. I confess that I did not check each one, but I suspect that almost all of these entries date from the last couple of years.
This is understandable. For the first time ever, India has posted four straight years of 8 percent growth; since it cracked open its economy in 1991, it has averaged growth of 6 percent a year - not in the same league as China, but twice the derisory "Hindu rate of growth" that had marked the first 45 years of independence. India has gone nuclear, and even gotten the United States to accept that status. Its movies are crossing over to become international hits. The recent $11.3 billion http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/19/8400168/index.htm?postversion=2007020605 - takeover of Corus by Mumbai-based Tata Steel was the biggest acquisition ever by an Indian firm.
No wonder the idea of India as the next superpower is fast becoming conventional wisdom. "Our Time is Now," asserts The Times of India. And in an October survey by the Chicago Council on World Affairs, Indians said they saw their country as the second most influential in the world. Sorry: India is not a superpower, and in fact, that is probably the wrong ambition for it, anyway. Why? Let me answer in the form of some statistics.
(Sources: UNDP, Unicef, World Food Program; Edward Luce) You get the idea. The 2006 UN Human Development Report, which ranks countries according to a variety of measures of human health and welfare, placed India 126th out of 177 countries. India was only a few places ahead of rival Pakistan (134th) and hapless Cambodia (129) and behind such not-about-to-be-superpowers as Equatorial Guinea (120), and Tajikistan (122). As these and other numbers suggest, Indian triumphalism (a notable 126,000 hits on Google) is not only premature, it is misguided. Yes, growth has been brisk, and of course growth is necessary to make a dent in poverty. But as Edward Luce, author of the excellent, "In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India," noted in a recent talk, poverty in India is not falling nearly as fast as its brisk rate of growth might anticipate. The reason for this is that Indian growth has been capital-intensive, driven by the growth in high-value services such as IT. This is a good thing, but what it does not do is create stable and reasonably paid employment for not particularly skilled people - and this matters a lot, considering eight to 10 million Indians enter the labor force every year. Luce estimates that there are 7 million Indians working in the formal manufacturing sector in India - and 100 million in China. To look at it another way, the 1 million Indians working in IT account for less than one-half of one percent of the entire working population. This helps build reserves (and national confidence, and tax revenues) but is not the poverty buster that labor-intensive development is. As Prime Minister Singh told Luce, "Our biggest single problem is the lack of jobs for ordinary people." The problem with India's self-proclaimed (and wildly premature) declaration of superpower status is that it reflects a complacency about both its present - which for many people is dire - and its future. Eight percent growth for four years is wonderful, but as the saying goes, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And India is not doing what it needs to in order to sustain this momentum. Consider the postwar history of East and Southeast Asia. The comparison is appropriate because India started at about the same point, and has watched just about every country in the region get ahead of it on the economic curve. All these places developed by being relatively open to trade; by investing in primary and secondary education; and by building pretty decent infrastructure (not only roads and ports, but health clinics and water supplies). India has begun to embrace one leg of this triangle - freer trade. Even here, though, many of the worst features of the swadeshi ("self-reliance") era remain intact, including an unreformed state banking sector; labor regulations that actively discourage hiring; abstruse land laws (and consequent lack of land titles); misshapen subsidies that hurt the poor; and corruption that is broad, deep and ubiquitous. Nothing useful is being done about any of this. As for the other two legs of this development triangle - education and infrastructure - these are still badly broken. About a third of teachers fail to show up on any given day (and, of course, are unsackable); the supply of both water and power is expensive and unreliable. These facts of life too often go unremarked in the current euphoria about the state of the nation. "We no longer discuss the future of India," Commerce Minister Kamal Nath told the Financial Times in a typical comment. "The future is India." Hubris, of course, is the stuff of politics everywhere. But the future will not belong to India unless it takes action to embrace it, and that means more than high-profile vanity projects like putting a man on the moon or building the worldąs tallest tower. It means showing that the world's largest democracy can deliver real progress to the hundreds of millions who have never used the phone, much less the Internet. And in important ways, that just isn't happening. India has many reasons to be proud, but considering it remains a world leader in hunger, stunting and HIV, its waxing self-satisfaction seems sadly beside the point ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 1:33am
|
Kulman ji, excellent article. And it is hard to argue with what all has been said above. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2007 at 3:20pm
|
From http://www.prudentbear.com - www.prudentbear.com
Martin Hutchinson is the author of "Great Conservatives" (Academica Press, 2005) -- details can be found on the Web site http://www.greatconservatives.com/ - www.greatconservatives.com
The Economist’s leading article last week suggested that India’s long boom was about to end in a credit crunch. At first sight, this seems unduly pessimistic. China’s boom hasn’t yet ended in disaster, so why should India’s? However, when India’s position is examined more closely one comes to the conclusion that, while a crunch is not imminent, India’s economic miracle is a lot more vulnerable than it appears.
In the past, Indian economic expansions faltered either because its payments deficit widened, leading to foreign exchange shortages, or because public finances spiraled out of control, sucking resources from the private sector and driving up interest rates. That poor trade and fiscal performance gave India a low credit rating. However, Standard and Poor’s recently raised India’s sovereign debt rating Tuesday from BB+ to BBB-, an investment grade rating, indicating that things may have changed.
India’s current account deficit widened to $11.7 billion (3% of GDP) in April-September 2006 from $7.2 billion in April-September 2005. Indian central government revenues were up 27% in April-November 2006 from the previous year, while current expenditures were up 17%; the central budget deficit was 4.5% of GDP. The currently modest trade deficit is no threat while international liquidity remains high. Moreover India now has $178 billion of reserves, more than a year’s imports, enough to cushion it from global credit crunches. The budget deficit also appears to be under control -- the tsunami of revenue is making it shrink rather than grow.
In inflation, stocks and housing, the three traditional indicators of overheating, the record is more mixed. Inflation was 6.6% in the year to January 2007, pretty restrained, although the trend is clearly upwards. Indian bank credit grew 31% in the year to January 2007, the same rate as in the previous year. Broad money growth was 20% in the year to January 2007 compared with 16% the previous year. Both these figures would be somewhat worrying, although they can be expected to be exceptionally high in an economy enjoying such rapid growth, whose entire structure is being modernized.
The Mumbai Sensex 30 stock index closed at 14,539 Friday, up 55% since 31st December 2005. On a 23 times P/E ratio, it looks thoroughly overvalued, but that doesn’t distinguish it from most other stock markets worldwide.
Housing is likely to continue booming for some time yet. Deepak Parekh, Chairman of Housing Development Finance Corporation, said recently “There is no point building houses of a crore (10 million rupees, $225,000) and 2 crore when people don’t have the resources to pay for them.” However by Western metropolitan standards $225,000 or even $450,000 is a bargain. As economies emerge, the newly wealthy and increasing foreign residents force house prices up towards Western levels. In India, with rapid growth and inequality rising through wealth creation, house prices could rise considerably further before unaffordability chokes the market.
Thus there seem no indications of a crisis in the short term; in this respect, the Bear would for once disagree with the bearish view expressed by the Economist. In the medium term, however, the picture is much gloomier, largely because of Indian politics.
It is the repeatedly expressed belief of the Economist and the mainstream Western media that India’s current prime minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party have been responsible for the economically reformist steps that have allowed India to begin to achieve its economic potential. For them, the Bharatiya Janata Party government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998-2004 has been airbrushed out of Indian history, except for the occasional negative reference to its Hindu nationalist principles.
The reality is very different. Economic reform in India began, not with the first Manmohan Singh government of 1991 but earlier, when Indira Gandhi realized after her hard-fought election victory of 1979 that socialism wasn’t going to work. Indeed, the seeds had been sown earlier still, with her forced sterilization policy of the middle 1970s; this was thoroughly unpopular, as should have been expected, but it brought home to ordinary Indians for the first time the huge adverse economic consequences, personal and national, of excessive reproduction. As a result, Indian population growth began to decline, and economic growth per capita was higher in the 1980s than in the 1970s, if only because the population was increasing more slowly.
Manmohan Singh indeed introduced further economic reforms as finance minister after 1991, but in a tentative fashion, since he did not control the Congress government, which relied on left-wing allies to maintain a majority. In consequence, Indian economic growth, after a few good years, stagnated in the middle 1990s. Only after Vajpayee took firm control in 1998 did the reform process revive, with reform accelerating after 2001 as it began to show serious results. Had Vajpayee won the election of May 2004, as he expected to, economic reform and privatization would have continued at a rapid pace, and India would now be well on the way to true prosperity, without a large budget deficit, without resurgent inflation and with the country’s serious corruption problem through its overstuffed bureaucracy well on the way to being solved.
Progress under Manmohan Singh since May 2004 has been much slower, since the government relies on the anti-capitalist Left Front to maintain itself in power. Public spending has risen faster than inflation, privatizations have been postponed, and labor law flexibility (a key issue in India’s 1950s-style socialism) has been more or less abandoned. In some areas, such as caste-based reservations in educational institutions, there has even been regression. However the economy itself has continued to surge ahead, running on the reformist momentum and opening of the Vajpayee years.
Most alarming is India’s draft Five Year Plan, for 2007-12, which sets a target of 9% annual economic growth over the 5 year period – almost certainly too high, and indeed incompatible with a country still run by the absurd mechanism of a Five Year Plan. It contains such gems as “Although growth in manufacturing has accelerated compared to the 9th Plan it is unlikely to exceed 8% in the 10th Plan. This is unacceptably low. If we want our GDP to grow at 9%, we have to target a 12% growth rate for this sector.” Yes government targeting – that’ll do the trick, raising manufacturing growth rates 50% above their already exalted level! The plan also proposes a substantial increase in India’s current account deficit (in the past a sure-fire killer of its economic expansions).
However the plan’s most ambitious wish list is reserved for the public sector, which is supposed to provide simultaneously for better infrastructure, better education, more help for the poor, more programs to eliminate discrimination and better healthcare – oh, and a better savings rate for the government, not that the Indian government has ever saved anything in real terms in the 60 years since independence. Total government spending is supposed to increase by an additional 2.5% of GDP – for a government which is already running public sector deficits of 8% of GDP. This may sound modest, but it is based on the 9% economic growth assumption; when growth falters, massive public spending plans will already be in place, resulting in a huge lurch upwards in the state’s share of the economy. Needless to say such a public sector expansion would choke off economic growth altogether.
The steroid-Stalinism of the Five Year Plan is wholly incompatible with a long term increase in India’s economic growth rate, or indeed its maintenance at current exalted levels. This will probably become apparent in India’s forthcoming Budget, to appear around the end of this month. The extraordinary increase in government revenues in the year to March 2007 will be assumed to be repeatable year after year with no adverse effect on economic growth, and public spending will consequently be increased to match. Expect an increase in planned public spending in the year to March 2008 of at least 20% over the year to March 2007, and probably 25%.
What form the ending of India’s economic boom will take is as yet unclear. Probably a sharp increase in inflation will take place, accompanied by major financing difficulties in the national and state budget deficits. Even though India’s financial position is currently manageable, it seems unlikely that this denouement can be delayed beyond the end of 2007. Thus in the medium term the Bear agrees with the Economist, although from an almost contrary rationale.
Where the Bear parts company with the Economist is in the remedy recommended. Just as we disagree about the responsibility for India’s growth, so we disagree on the potential for its redemption. Manmohan Singh, to the extent he is a reformer, is a very feeble one who does not command a majority in his own party. While in the boom-time conditions of the last 3 years he has proved adequate, albeit failing to advance economic reform further, as Vajpayee would have done, he is almost certain to be overwhelmed by any economic crisis in late 2007 or 2008. For one thing, the crisis itself will remove his credibility; to the extent he is trusted by the left, it is as the architect of economic miracle. He will thus fail to bring public spending back under control and will be unable to produce remedies for the economic problems that have arisen. Instead he will probably punt the problem forward with populist public spending and “soak the rich:” emergency taxes beyond the next election, due at latest in May 2009 but probably earlier if the economy has deteriorated.
The crucial question for India’s long term future is whether at that election India’s electorate proves to be smarter than the Economist. The worst possibility would arise if the BJP and its allies, following the retirement of Vajpayee in 2005, are unable to coalesce around an economically reformist leader, choosing instead either disarray or a reversion to primitive Hindu nationalism. In that case economic reformists would effectively have been disfranchised, and India could expect many years of renewed economic decline – the “Hindu rate” of 3% economic growth would have returned, for the same reasons as in 1947-91.
Somewhat less bad would be the Economist’s preferred result of a re-election of Manmohan Singh over an economically coherent BJP alternative. At least then Congress and its allies would be blamed by the electorate for continued economic decline, and reformists in the BJP or elsewhere would be correspondingly strengthened for the following election in 2013-14. A bad decade for the Indian economy probably, but not a bad century.
Only if the BJP and its allies were to conquer the forces of reaction and the Economist and return to power on a policy of re-starting the economic reforms that were under way in 2001-04 could India return to rapid economic growth. Even then there would probably be a 2-3 year period of monetary stringency and public spending cuts before the economy righted itself.
India has a great chance to enjoy rapid economic development and take its rightful place within a couple of decades among the world’s wealthy, albeit with a substantial remaining impoverished and under-educated rural proletariat. However, the Indian electorate’s decision in 2004 to remove Vajpayee has meant that a further period of economic chaos may have to be endured before renewed progress can occur. Countries can either have Five Year Plans or economic miracles, but not in the long run both.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2007 at 5:22pm
| Sounds too pessimistic.. They see hope only in BJP govt.. |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 14/Feb/2007 at 10:46am
| Really these days there is nothign called saving .Generation next wants to make money fast and spend it fast.But exceptions are there. |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 1:06pm
Thats where the oppurtunity is for Retail and Multiplex operators and in turn we benefit(shareholders). ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 1:38pm
|
.Generation next wants to make money fast and spend it fast.But exceptions are there.
Thats where the oppurtunity is for Retail and Multiplex operators and in turn we benefit(shareholders).
==================================
And Credit Card & Consumer Loan companies too benefit! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 1:49pm
|
Everyone wants to be a Millionare at the end of a specified number of period.
My question is "How can anyone be a millionare when he has debts outstanding in personal loans, credit cards, car loans etc"...
I think the Jouney to becomming a Millionare starts when we are "debt free"...
This thinking of mine may dissapoint Bank shareholders
 ....------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 1:55pm
|
I think the Jouney to becomming a Millionare starts when we are "debt free"...
---------------------------
101% right! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 1:57pm
Also media. All brands whether cars, consumer durables, AC's etc need to be advertised amongs the wealthy category of poeple and a major part of that category of people watch Business and English news  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 12:23pm
|
From Hindu Business Line:
Unveil your dream budget Business Line invites you to tell the Finance Minister your budget expectations. Send in your budget wish list to mailto:[email protected] - [email protected] and explain why you want them included. Attach your digital photograph, which may get published. Do include your brief profile. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2007 at 8:39pm
|
http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=2/21/07&story=4 - India: Uniquely 'D'ifferent
India's growth story is something of a phenomenon with the Indian economy registering high growth rates over the last couple of years. Among its Asian peers, India is second after China in terms of growth rate and foreign investments. However India follows a very different growth model than that of its Asian peers.
Democracy: India follows the principle of democracy unlike its peers. South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia all had either strongmen in charge or very restrictive political systems. Japan and China too were under autocratic rule. Unlike the pattern amongst other countries to initially grow and then slowly allow freedom, India's rapid economic growth is different, as it has functioned on the democracy mechanism. Demographics: The growth optimists point to India's favourable demography. Nearly two-third of India's one billion plus population is under 35 years of age, making it one of the youngest nations in the world on a sizeable base. The median age is about 24 years as compared to 35 years in the United States, 41 years in Japan, and 30 years in China. The population of working age will continue to rise for several decades, whereas in other Asian countries like China it is expected to fall. This, it is argued, will boost India's workforce and both saving and investment. Furthermore, 60% of India's labour force is engaged in low productivity farming. As workers shift from agriculture to more productive jobs in industry and services, this will automatically boost GDP growth. Favorable demographics need to go hand in hand with sound policies especially in India where the risk of mounting regional inequality poses hazards for political stability and thus economic development. The 15-24 and 25-59 age groups have grown by 35% and 41% respectively over the last decade. These age groups will boost consumption - as they have higher earning capacity and will also be able to spend more on themselves.
Domestic market: India itself is a huge market. With a population of more than 1 bn people, India has a consumption-centric culture. Much of the demand in the East Asian countries comes from exports to the developed world, while in India most demand is based on domestic consumption growth. The Indian consumption story is, first and foremost, one of accelerating growth off a low base. Private consumption currently accounts for 64% of Indian GDP - higher than shares in Europe (58%), Japan (55%), and especially China (42%). India's transition to a 7% growth in recent years is very much an outgrowth of the emerging consumerism of one of the world's youngest populations. The increased vigor of private consumption provides a powerful leverage to the Indian growth story. Dependence on the service sector: The services sector accounts for a robust 63% of the economic output and grew by an unprecedented 10.1% in FY06. It is expected to grow by 10.9% in FY07. Significant increases in the demand for domestic services, the export-oriented information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO) sectors also continue to perform very well due to growing international demand for skilled, low-cost, English-speaking Indian workers, although these sectors constitute only a small portion of total services output. Indian competitiveness in IT and BPO has been aided by substantial investment in telecommunications infrastructure and the phased liberalization of the communications sector. The other countries in East Asia have followed the export-oriented strategy. The traditional Asian path has been to start with low-technology products like toys and readymade garments, and then work up the value chain to products like automobiles and electronics. India's trajectory has used the skills of the educated middle-class to boost services - software, airlines, banking, hotels, telecommunications and so on. However, now India is also turning into manufacturing hubs for many MNC's like Unilever, Ford and pharma MNCs among others.
 Though India continues to face problems with respect to political stability, corruption, poverty, infrastructure hurdles, fiscal deficit, the makeover in India's image from a 'land of snake charmers' to a 'land of immense opportunities' has been rapid. India rising is for real and will only intensify in the time to come. source: equitymaster.com
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 25/Feb/2007 at 1:10pm
|
we may have a singrur like situation.......
------------------------------------------
Dr Saab
It is out of context on this thread. But, this statement reminds me a nice article by Gurcharan Das in today's Sunday Times titled http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/OPINION/Columnists/Gurcharan_Das/Heroic_Buddhadeb/articleshow/1675955.cms - Heroic Buddhadeb
Some excerpts:
When you have been teaching bad ideas to people for a couple of generations, they tend to catch up with you. This is poor Buddhadeb Bhattacharya's dilemma, as he attempts heroically to break with his desperate past.
In the 1980s, I used to work in Mumbai and i worried that our factory was next door to that of a famous European company that had been on strike for almost a year. Their Marxist trade union leader had the dangerous psychological make up of Duryodhana. Once he said at a gate meeting:
"I don't care if we sink this factory as long as the European manager goes down with us." When this kind of attitude gets institutionalised in the mental make-up of a militant movement, the result is de-industrialisation. This is what happened in West Bengal in the 1970s. Company after company left the state as the unions preferred to sink the economy rather than come to agreement with industry. But in a democracy you must also face your Nandigrams, something that Deng didn't have to think about in China.
We are now at a tipping point, and if we don't seize the moment, history will not forgive us. With all their flaws, SEZs will create millions of jobs and eventually lift the poor into the middle class.
Fifty years hence, when India's per capita income is $25,000 per year, historians will remember Buddhadeb's vision of a vibrant, prosperous, and forward looking India. In comparison, Mamta Banerji, V P Singh and Medha Patkar's India is a perpetually victimised peasant society that belongs in the garbage dump of history. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 25/Feb/2007 at 4:09pm
|
The CPIs have fallen into their own trap. Suits them well...these guys and many of these politicians(from all parties) should be kicked around daily just like street dogs. These people know that "the poor getting even poorer, the upper middle class going into lower and the lower middle class coming back to low class" is the root of their survivial. These bas****s don't care for anyone but themselves and want to rule India like their own property. The middle class has done so much for India, but it is us middle class people who are screwed day and night in every which way...taxes or other things.Anyhow, justice shall prevail one day and Mother India shal lone day again rise to its glory. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 25/Feb/2007 at 8:58pm
| The only that can happen is young people liek you and me get into politics and cleann the system....which is happeing in tamil Nadu...but the people are stupid enough to fall for free TV and Rice...i think u must have heard IIT ians started a party and promsied resonable demands,,,,,,,,,,but were rejected...it will happen someday...the day is not fare... |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 9:06pm
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/WillIndiasMarketBlowUpNext.aspx?page=all -
By http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Commentary/Experts/Jubak/Jim_Jubak.aspx - Who's next? There are the usual suspects, of course:
But I've got another candidate: It's as big as And, of course, with the global financial markets as spooked as they are after the Feb. 27 meltdown in In the long term, however, I think Do the long-term rewards outweigh the short-term risks? Should you buy in now, determined to weather any storm, or wait for the rain to fall and the clouds to clear? Let me lay out the short-term risks and the long-term potential. First, the short-term risks
My short-term prognosis: A big domestic credit crunch -- caused when lenders stop lending and borrowers can't get the cash they need to run their businesses -- causes It won't play out exactly like that, of course. I don't know how deep any credit crunch might be or how much the Reserve Bank of Most of all, I don't know when all of this might happen. This mess took a while to create, and my suspicion is that it will take a while to correct. The core of the problem -- the imbalance between urban areas quickly growing wealthy (in Indian terms) and rural areas left behind in the boom -- isn't unique to Second, the case for long-term rewards
My long-term prognosis: If I didn't get my correction in Indian stocks by early 2008, I'd re-evaluate my calculations of risk and reward to see if the global risk picture had changed. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 10:44pm
|
Jim Jubak needed to write his column to earn his paycheck it seems.
He should be writing scripts for Hindi Movies.
AISA BHI HO SAKTA HAI.
AGAR NAHI HUA TO.... OH WELL... HO SAKTA THA...
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 12:19pm
|
Well, I think he must have posted a similar article like this some 4 months back too. What's that?
He didn't.
Oh, achcha! Well whatever... ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 6:06am
| I think India is being misunderstood since Alexander the Great.. Jim Jubak is on sell side at Indian banks since may be two years. Jim Rogers was highly negative at bottom of mkt and he is really smart person. He is not Dr. Doom. Peter Drucker said India will implode. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 04/Mar/2007 at 12:45pm
|
Such forecasts have more entertainment value than knowledge.
"If I didn't get my correction in Indian stocks by early 2008, I'd re-evaluate my calculations of risk and reward to see if the global risk picture had changed."
Most of these expert analysts are excellent at being VAGUE.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 04/Mar/2007 at 1:48am
|
isko kehte hai " Dono taraf se dhol bajana " ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 1:56pm
|
Yeh S.S. Bhalla saaheb ka kehna hain.....
There is considerable evidence to suggest that the http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage.php?autono=277966&leftnm=4&subLeft=0&chkFlg= - Indian inflation problem is a has-been problem, a problem that has ceased to be.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2007 at 1:47pm
|
Bhala ho Bhalla ka!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 2:25pm
|
INDIA Q4 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT $3.04B V -$6.93B PRIOR Note the reduction in Current Account Deficit.------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 2:35pm
|
Saw that, so does not a reduction in current account deficit lead to a decrease in inflation over a period of time? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 4:16pm
|
I have no knowledge of relation of Curr a/c and Inflation.
However a decreasing current account deficit is generally good for a currency (as less rupee is now going out of the country), which in turn hurts exports. This then leads to an increase in the deficit.  ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 6:06pm
|
News just in: 30 sec ago
India Raises REPO RATE ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 6:08pm
|
(IN) CENTRAL BANK RAISES REPO RATE 25BPS TO 7.75% FROM 7.50% - Raises Cash Reserve ratio by 50bps to 6.50% in 2 tranches effective April 14 - Central Bank was not expected to make a decision until April 24, 2007 Note Russia also raised earlier today*(RU) RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK RASIES OVERNIGHT RATES BY 25BPS TO 2.50%
- RCB Raises one-week rates to 3.00% from 2.75% - Rate hike was not expected ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 9:30pm
|
(IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK CHIEF SAYS GOAL IS TO MAINTAIN INFLATION BELOW 5% IN MEDIUM TERM - fiscal consolidation still remains a matter of concern but there is reason for optimism - challenge for India is to manage structural shift to higher growth path - managing challenges involves several trade-offs, some policy flexibility may be needed ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 9:49am
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Money supply expanded at the fastest pace in eight and a half years during the fortnight ended March 16, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. "The M3 measure of money supply grew by 22% in the two weeks to March 16 from a year earlier, compared with 22.1% in the previous two weeks, the central bank said in a statement."
And they also talk of containing Inflation. Yak Yak ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 30/Mar/2007 at 10:13am
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What a double speak, really funny......where is all this money going??????Not only M3 but the velocity of circulation is also increasing as a result of which we may be in a period of not only inflation but huper-inflation..... the problem is we tend to look at inflation from the weekly angle but are unable to decipher the real cause and real reasons. we HOPE that inflation will cool... we talk about the base effect...... but then are we not missing more serious????? |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 01/Apr/2007 at 11:50am
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(IN) INDIA MANUFACTURING PMI FOR MARCH: 53.0 V 53.6 IN FEB; READING IS THE LOWEST SINCE THE SURVEY BEGAN IN APRIL 2005 India's PMI data is compiled by ABN Amro Bank.
What is PMI?
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 1:41pm
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INDIAS FEBRUARY TRADE DEFICIT AT $4.66B V $2.5B YEAR AGO - Feb Exports Up 7.9% On Year At $9.7B - Feb Imports Up 25.1% On Year At $14.36B
Guys .. do these news makes sense to anyone. If yes, I would keep posting it. Otherwise I would ignore it. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 2:25pm
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It does. We get an overview of the macro economic situation. Please keep posting them. Also please put in your interpretation if any in one or two lines if that is possible at all. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 2:37pm
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OK...Will do that. Thanks ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 5:07pm
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the feb numbers show the effect of a rising rupee and a economy growing at top speed. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 5:18pm
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Good piece of information this. I beleive such numbers will also make RBI make more hawkish and RBI may intervene more purposefully to cool down rupee else if it continues unabated we will also go the US way. However, Bubble, how will RBI do it.... it is doing all things that will make the real yield positive something which is positive for re-dollar.... and on the other hand it has to tackle the buygeoning trade deficit.... how can RBI manage it.... just like fed???? Waiting for your opinion on this
Regards,
Vivek
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 5:19pm
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Increase in Trade Deficit is bad for a currency...as it shows money moving out of the country.
I am interested to see the Rupee's reaction tommorrow as the Rupee Market was closed today!!!
I have also modified that PMI post as to what is PMI. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 5:35pm
| But Bubble, what about interest rate stance taken by RBI.... we had a phase when Dollar was appreciating inspite of burgeoning trade deficit, just because the real yield on dollar was more than that on Euro/yen.... so can we have such a scenario over here as well. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 6:19pm
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Yes Vivek..The most important Fundamental factor for any currency is the yield attached to it. In India the Trade Deficit (TD) does not matter as he Rupee is currently "Partily Convertable". I had written about TD on Tiger's message. Australia is also a TD countly and see its currency is at a 10 year high on back of interest rates, which are likely to be again raised to 6.5% on the 4-Apr.
========
Bubble, how will RBI do it....
=========
Vivek...RBI Intervenes heavily in the Forex Market. I can confrim you that RBI had purchased 8 Billion Dollars from the market to defend 44.00-10 level in Nov-Dec-Jan.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 7:36am
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All the experts are talking about 7% GDP next year because of the higher interest rates.
But a contrarian view will be that cheap foreign funds (Yen Carry trade anyone ? ) will keep the GDP at 8.5-9%. Smart companies will raise less debt and rely more on Private Equity & Equity dilutions which in turn are funded through cheap Yen. Can someone throw more light on FCCBs and its impacts ? |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 8:15am
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I agree with Mr V. There will be a huge arbitrage by hedge funds inspite of the Indian markets falling like a bric.
People should remember that its always the hot money that enters the flavor of the day and exits at the first sign of trouble.
Well, If the RBI had not raised rates on 30 March, it was expected to raise it in April. Lets think rationally like Charlie Munger and look at what is happening. THere is value being created in the markets. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 8:44am
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This time it's different ! ? ! ?
http://www.livemint.com/2007/04/03010333/Unlike-mid90s-lag-effect-of.html - Unlike mid-’90s, lag effect of RBI belt-tightening won’t last
The aggressive monetary tightening undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India, especially since December 2006, has led to inevitable comparisons with similar measures the central bank undertook in the mid-nineties.
The average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 7% achieved between 1993-94 and 1997-98 dropped to 5% and lower eventually. New capital issues dwindled, indicating a slowdown in investments, and the benchmark stock market index, the Sensex, traded range-bound for five years from 1995 to 1999.
There is consensus this time around, too, that the GDP growth rate for 2007-08 will definitely be lower, after the recent hikes in key interest rates.
But the comparison should end there, say economists who emphasize that India is a much different economy today from what it was in the nineties and therefore the lag effect of the monetary tightening should not linger. “Even if RBI continues with tightening measures, the impact will not be as sharp as the mid-1990s,” said Gaurav Kapur, associate economist, ABN Amro Bank.
When the inflation rate hit the double digits in 1994-95, the RBI unleashed measures to tame it with a vengeance. The end of that cycle of monetary tightening coincided with the famous Asian currency crisis and the central bank walked away with all the credit for having saved the Indian economy from the debacle. The Asian crisis was triggered mainly by unhedged overseas borrowings of highly-leveraged industries.
“In 1995 we did not have adequate foreign exchange reserves and so the priority was to build them. Today, it is different, we have substantial reserves,” said another economist.
Also, our banking system itself is robust now, with average non-performing assets of scheduled commercial banks dropping from 7% in 1996-97 to 2.5% in 2004-05.
“This time around, the momentum is already built and industry has committed investments to the tune of Rs400,000 crore,” said investment analyst Gul Tekchandani. At the same time, he pointed out, “We hope this is the last hike and the RBI does not tinker around too much.”
Even with the 20-23% credit growth RBI is targeting, industrial credit demand should be sustainable, said Kapur, who added that funding now is not very difficult for industry. “Today, we have greater integration with global markets and also greater checks and balances against speculative borrowings,” he added.
All hopes now lie with the inflation numbers. While some believe inflation should cool down to 5% in the coming months, sceptics say in a detariffed regime, government has few tools to control imported inflation.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 9:25am
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INDIA: INDIA IS LOOKING TO IMPLEMENT A TAX ON BANKS AND MORTGAGE LENDERS - ECONOMIC TIMES - Measure may force lenders to pay a 1% tax on their annual increase in home loans and the measure is expected to raise the cost of funds for lenders and the borrowing costs for home buyers. **Note this move follows a recent rate hike by India's Central Bank ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 9:41am
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Great News Bubble.....RBI is in full swing....yesterday Ranbaxy has also lost to pfizer..... that company which was trying to hold fort will also be made to crumble.....
LONG LIVE THE BEARS!!!!!!
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 9:48am
| I saw this piece of news on CNBC.... kindly do check. |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 9:50am
| http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ranbaxy-labs-loses-high-court/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC220D7A-5EF6-49E0-B2D5-F6DFFD301E17%7D - http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ranbaxy-labs-loses-high-court/story.aspx?guid=%7BEC220D7A-5EF6-49E0-B2D5-F6DFFD301E17%7D |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2007 at 11:47am
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USD-INR dips to its lowest level since June 1999 earlier today.
A falling USD-INR indicates Rupee gaining against the USD. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 12:10pm
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Bubble: Infy guidance could be under thread and I hope that this does not become a final straw on the camel's back!
Technology could be in aproblem because of multiple reasons:
a) Rupee Dollar
b) Fy 09 Tax incidence
c) US recession
SOme where sometime any of these factors could over extend themselves. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 9:35pm
| A US recession/slowdown might have short term quarterly impact on earnings but in the long run will be beneficial for large s/w companies like Infy, TCS & Wipro. |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 9:44pm
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Andy Mukherjee's column in Bloomberg on the Interest Rate hikes
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a9fuS7Cu9etI&refer=home - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a9fuS7Cu9etI&refer=home
By Andy Mukherjee April 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Indian central bank's monetary shock therapy has left the country's newly leveraged middle class gasping for breath. Last weekend, ICICI Bank Ltd., which commands a 30 percent share of retail lending in This steep escalation in the cost of home finance is deeply unsettling. Any monetary policy that causes real, long-term rates to move so drastically can't be called a successful one. Will it reduce demand for new mortgages? Of course it will. And once that happens, the Reserve Bank of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday said the rate of expansion in unsubsidized commercial credit in Yet, the victory will come at a heavy price. A new homeowner who took out a 2 million-rupee ($46,200), 15-year variable-rate mortgage, say, two months ago was better off as a tenant. His loan's maturity, according to ICICI Bank's ``impact calculator,'' has increased by about eight years. Punishment for Homeowners To the extent the large increase in home-loan rates are a direct result of monetary tightening, one wonders why the central bank is punishing homeowners even as the government is rewarding them with juicy tax exemptions. There ought to be a better way to contain credit growth in the economy rather than by bulldozing the hapless middle class, which doesn't have the stomach for this kind of volatility. Mortgage lending, which accounts for about 14 percent of the total unsubsidized commercial credit, is growing at an annual rate of about 32 percent, according to the latest available data. Some Indian banks have significantly more exposure to mortgage lending than others. Home loans account for 51 percent of ICICI Bank's $27 billion in retail assets. Credit growth, whose pace has barely slackened from about 33 percent a year ago, has prompted the central bank to bring out the heavy artillery. In the past four months, the Reserve Bank has mandated as many as three increases in the cash-reserve ratio, or the proportion of deposits that commercial lenders must keep with the central bank as cash. Between December and now, the reserve requirement has risen 1.5 percentage points, with the most recent 50-basis-point increase announced on March 30. Removal of Liquidity This preemption of cash has removed about $10 billion of liquidity from the banking system. As a result, lenders such as ICICI are now scurrying to woo depositors by promising them higher interest rates. The rising cost of attracting deposits is, in turn, passed on to the retail borrowers, who are getting squeezed. Better coordination between fiscal and monetary policy could have avoided the discomfort. The Indian government gives tax breaks that knock off a significant chunk of the effective borrowing cost on home loans. By scrapping, reducing, or at the very least, suspending the tax breaks for new mortgages, the government could have curbed demand for fresh loans without hurting existing borrowers. A 200-basis-point increase in a mortgage rate in less than two months is unbearable even in a high-wage-growth country such as No Relief The other option, equally unpleasant, is for borrowers to increase their own equity. According to a report last month by Credit Suisse Group's Mumbai-based analyst Aditya Singhania, a prospective homebuyer who was expecting to make a 20 percent initial payment must come up with an additional 15 percent of the loan value to keep the monthly payout unchanged from what he had budgeted for before a 200-basis-point surge in the cost of capital. Banks in With monthly installments unable to cover interest costs, banks will have to seek more cash from the borrowers, who will have to curb other household expenditure to find the extra money. No Rate Cuts ``We estimate that the current policy-tightening cycle is likely to reduce consumer demand considerably,'' Goldman Sachs economists Tushar Poddar and Mark Tan said in their report. Even then, there's very little chance of the Reserve Bank easing up on its hawkish stance in a hurry. Domestic tight-money conditions may not dissuade investments by large Indian companies, which have easy recourse to cheaper overseas borrowings. As a result, the Indian economy may grow about 9 percent for a third straight year, almost ruling out interest-rate cuts in 2007. The end to leveraged homeowners' woes may not come soon. (Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer of this column: Andy Mukherjee in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 11:55pm
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Andy Mukherjee has correctly used a phrase 'leveraged' middle-class in that article.
Only yesterday, I was discussing this topic with a TEDdy.
I know many guys facing this problem of 'leveraged life-style'. Out of envy with peer group they purchased big (unncessarily big) houses/penthouses/row houses on loan. Then they filled those rooms with expensive furniture again on loan. Some blessed souls took 'top-up' loan facility to 'invest' into equities (read: F&O punting) because everyone was making quick buck in stocks.
Of course, most of them have bigger cars, again on loan. By the way, one peculiar behaviour with these 'neo-rich' guys is that they feel their car is old when their neighbour buys a new vehicle.
And for everything else, there is Visa/Mastercard!
Time & again, Martin Pring's quote proves that it is the task of beating ourselves which is the most difficult.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 12:04pm
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But with 3% of mortaggeto GDP ratio will the effect of a few borrowers over extending themselves hurt the industry as such. maybe the growth would slacken but except for a few mish*ts here and there I think India's home loan fraternity would be able to handle it - at some cost of course.
ALso that 8 years extension assumes that interest rates stay at these levels for 20 years which would not happen because interest rates like markets are known to fluctuate! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 12:18pm
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What you say is alright.
My post was in no way meant to portray gloomy future for Indian economy or how we are heading towards doomsday as it is made out by the media & 'expert' commentators. In fact I'm not at all competent to comment on such matters.
However it is my obervation on activities of a 'neo-rich' class as I'm watching how people are screwing themselves up in life because of decisions driven by envy & ego. I realise that this thread isn't appropriate for discussing this though.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 9:11am
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Mr. Basant, its true that interest rate fluctuate.... but before they change their direction, many things will occur. A few Repo hikes, and there will be a major rush by the borrowers.Interest rates will change their direction only if there is a major deterioration in fundamentals.But for that to happen, there has to a be a major deterioration in fundamentals at the first place. Fundamentals here mean, business and consumer environment.
Kulman, I am totally in sync with you. The only thing that I have managed to inculcate in myself is that I will not borrow no matter what... si uf I dont have much money to invest, I wont invest....but in no case I will borrow to invest. The same thing goes with consumption, although by God's grace, I am trying to manage my consumption expenditure through accruals without much major difficulty.
Regards,
Vivek
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Apr/2007 at 4:53pm
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Here's another take on India, this one from World Bank! Jitne experts utne views!! --------------------------
India's annual inflation of 6.5 per cent is not that high when considering the nation's strong growth, a senior World Bank official said yesterday.
The Indian economy is forecast to grow 9 per cent this year, the same pace of growth estimated for 2006, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, said Isabel Guerrero, the World Bank's country director for India. The Reserve Bank of India has been raising interest rates on concern that the economy might be overheating, but it is also 'playing by ear' how its policy action could affect future economic growth, Ms Guerrero said.'That shows they are concerned about inflation but not as much because inflation is still quite low,' she said in an interview. But Ms Guerrero, who oversaw Latin American countries at the World Bank before assuming her current post in March, said annual inflation of 6.5 per cent is 'not really high' and inflation staying below 10 per cent is in fact 'very good'. For a country achieving growth as high as India's, it is hard to tell whether inflation is caused by economic overheating or by high capacity needs, she said. 'It could be consumption overheating, but it could very much be high (economic) growth, and high growth always puts a strain on the productive capacity of an economy,' Ms Guerrero said. Ms Guerrero also said that by maintaining certain financial market controls, such as limiting the presence of foreign banks operating in the nation, India remains less vulnerable to financial market shocks such as the one that hit much of Asia in the late 1990s. 'The risks of destabilising inflows and outflows is less (in India) than in other countries, and I think (the government) has done the right thing by being careful' about opening up its financial markets, she said. Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,229569,00.html? - Indian inflation not excessive: official
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 1:04pm
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(IN) INDIA'S FEB INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP 11.0% Y/Y - OFFICIAL - Jan revised higher to 11.4% from 10.9% y/y ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 1:19pm
|
SO Lata can talk for about 20 minutes today extempore, also she would have to do a little overtime.
Basically if a developed economy means debating on every data and then framing/changing opinion on the broader markets then.......
Did you see how the Tau's talk fundas these days on TV. They are probably doing what they are less bad at ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 4:11pm
|
LATA loves FRIDAYS so that she can really show us how much she knows bout INFLATION ? ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 4:26pm
Hahaha...The problem is that the TAU's cannot look ahead of the day. I had even heard one TAU (In India) one day that he was looking at the Japan Tankan Survey for directional view on the Sensex.
Most of the markets participants globally cannot think a week ahead. Up until yesterday... everyone was convinced of a FED rate Cut, but then suddenly they all changed yesterday after the FED Minutes.
While watching Fundamentally also, I had mantained that there could more hikes (aa la... Australia and UK). However that does NOT mean prople should buy the greenback. The Euro continues its upward move.
Dollar is Currently the ignored currency (with the Dollar Index hardly moving these days), as it is weak against everyother currency in the world, except the Yen and the CHF.
Main Money is bring made in Non Dollar crosses.
Lata is a Journalist and she can explain each and every situation, like I had with that Australian Interest Rate Forecast!!!
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 4:27pm
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IMF forecasts slowdown of Indian economy to 7.8%
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/IMF_forecasts_slowdown_of_Indian_economy_to_78/articleshow/1895229.cms - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/IMF_forecasts_slowdown_of_Indian_economy_to_78/articleshow/1895229.cms
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 4:37pm
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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/pdf/c2.pdf - Here (Note PDF) is the IMF release for the global growth peojection. For India look page 15. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:07pm
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All Said and done, Almost everyone on TV18 is waiting will bated breath for Infy results due on Friday the 13th .
The surprising part is no one is willing to take a definitive position as for some reason it will mean sticking their neck out and looking like a fool.
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:26pm
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Acc. to me, INFY should be able to give a 35% y-o-y growth. Since they are usually conservative while giving guidance, they would probably say around 30% but deliver more than that. TCS however should give more than 35% y-o-y growth.
If need be, this post can be shifted to a relevant area. Thanks Admin ji. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:29pm
|
I think CNBC has wasted at least 240 minutes of airtime over the past few days on something which is absolutely inconclusive "Infy guidance" Most of the questions are of the what if variety - vague and absolute nonsense.
Maybe the world likes to see that kind of a discussion and those guys are obliging. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:53pm
| A time will come when they will make an estimate of what the coming estimate will be..........of late, CNBC is becoming a total hopeless news content channel.... there's a madam who talks so loud about inflation as if she has had buy potatoes @ 50 rupees per kg....then there is a chasmish, who talks so fast and wants to talk so much that most of the times he either doesnt allow the person he is talking to speak or finds the problems and solves the problem all by himself....... then there is a pretty woman, who thinks a 0.6% jump in a stock's move as a stellar move....they talk as if Infosys, satyam etc. are players playing on the field called Stock markets. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:56pm
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Wah Wah Basant ji, chilled lassi piyo sir ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:00pm
| CNBC has made people think and beleive that this friday will be a watershed, this way or that way..... its such a hopeless situation.... God knows how these Brilliant Intellugent people arrive at the magic figures... the channel takes a poll, bootstraps them and arrive at a median, I beleive thats the technique they employ.We have been made to look at the effects and never care about the causes......... all the mungeris are busy praying , doing kirtan so that the numbers be more than the magic number...All waiting for divine Intervention!!!!! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:05pm
|
chilled lassi piyo sir
_______________________________________________________
Kya lassi yaar! these guys are making a mockery of things. Still people see it as diligently as they look at the sanskar channel and Udayan Bapu's sermon are still talked about in the smaller bylanes of the bigger towns.
SOme times I wonder whether I should actually be holding that stock but then I think that just because I do not smoke or drink does not make ITC or Mcdowell a bad company.
Wohi karo bhaiya joh public ko achcha lage. Whether it is Mathew or Rajat; the general investor is still its bhagat!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:11pm
| In economics, I learnt there are 2 kinds of inflation: Cost Push and Demand Pull.... however, I now realise there's a third kind of inflation as well.... Headline Inflation!!!!! |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:18pm
|
INFY RESULTS WILL EITHER MAKE OR BREAK MKTS thats what i have been hearing for the last one week.dont they know that the mkt is much bigger than the mkt cap of one single co, one co does not make the mkt.who trains these kids thats one place i would like my son to avoid ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:19pm
|
Vivek...There is Core Inflation as well, which is Inflation ex inflation, as it leaves out Food and Energy inflation. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:22pm
| ya bubble..... my small little mind has got deflated while memorising all this type of inflation!!!! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:31pm
They have been this same way since last 2-3 years Basant jee. Nothing new!!!! Also, I see that Mathew TAU jaan has made a comeback. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:32pm
|
I got a novel idea.....just like we have beta in CAPM, we can have an ieta.....whic will show how does a stock market price of company move in relation to a percent move in Infy's stock price.... |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 11:14pm
Don't be surprised if they spend another 240 minutes analyzing the results and drawing all sorts of bizarre conclusions.
If one looks at things objectively then there is nothing unpredictable about Infy's results and guidance.
Clearly, they will factor in the 3 negative things and come up with a 5-10% lower guidance.
1. Possibility of US slowdown impacting short term profits.
2. Impact of stronger rupee.
3. Impact of the new service tax announced in the budget.
Infy has ALWAYS erred on the conservative side while providing earnings guidance.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 11:25pm
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Clearly, they will factor in the 3 negative things and come up with a 5-10% lower guidance.
1. Possibility of US slowdown impacting short term profits.
2. Impact of stronger rupee.
3. Impact of the new service tax announced in the budget.
Infy has ALWAYS erred on the conservative side while providing earnings guidance.
__________________________________________________________
That was doing a 240 minute job done in 2 minutes and forty seconds. You know they will never call you to their Studio because you have a bad habit of concluding (rightly) too quickly.  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 2:32am
aah..That's one less alternate career option for me
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Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 5:31am
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I will not be surprised if INFY comes out today with sparkling results and optimistic guidance. I assume other income will do the magic. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 7:23am
Sure it might and the talkheads will Yapp all day about it in but will it anyway change the long term prospects of Infy's business. And as for Other Income, well for a lack of words, Other Income is after all "Other Income" 
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Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 9:52am
Hey Bubble, Is there any online resource where these kind of numbers are put up ? It would be very informative to know of GOI websites which archive macro economic numbers. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 12/Apr/2007 at 10:53am
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Hi Victor ...here is the site which you want.
http://www.mospi.nic.in/welcome.asp - http://www.mospi.nic.in/welcome.asp
India's Monthly release calendar is at http://www.mospi.nic.in/stat_arc0.htm - http://www.mospi.nic.in/stat_arc0.htm
I get these numbers from my newswire service provider.
The IIP for March-2007 will be declared on 11-May-07.
Cheers ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 4:24pm
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USD-INR has fallen further today and the buck is currently trading near the lowest level against the rupee since May-1999.
On a side note, the Rupee is also at its highest level since Dec-1995 against the Yen, indicating a positive and a growing JPY-INR carry trade. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 13/Apr/2007 at 6:28am
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I heard that RBI is not intervening into forex market because it is also helping in inflation control. Is this make sense, then shatan ke khoon ka swad chakh liya hai.. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |