TheEquityDesk Report Card June 2010
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Identifying Multibaggers
Forum Discription: Discuss specific attributes that investors could look at while choosing multibaggers. Also point out certain factors that investors tend to overlook while finding multibaggers.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2850
Printed Date: 07/May/2025 at 1:35pm
Topic: TheEquityDesk Report Card June 2010
Posted By: basant
Subject: TheEquityDesk Report Card June 2010
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 2:18pm
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Dear Teddies, The last quarter has been exemplary for most stocks discussed at TheEquityDesk (TED). While many TED XI stocks have galloped to new highs there have been super duper performances from several other names that feature quite high on the participation list at TED. This leads me to believe (though arrogantly) that if you are accessing TED on a regular basis you will do better then the majority – almost always. This is a “consumer stocks” led bull market and the early people realize it the better it would be for portfolio positioning. Almost all the stocks in the infrastructure space are below their all time highs whereas almost all stocks in the consumer space are above their all time highs. What more technical confirmation does one need to call this a consumer driven bull market.
Regards, Basant Maheshwari ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: Bhupan
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 2:45pm
First to respond ..  Basant saab no changes in team ?? Going forward will we see addition of more " consumer companies " in this list ? Are Companies from Ted XI still available at discount or are becoming fairly valued ? |
Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 2:49pm
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Basntji, So, do we have any new player in TED XI or you would like to continue with existing team...whats your view on Dish TV, as Now HD war started in india, what you think,who will benefit more from HD war tatasky,Big TV, Airtel or Dish TV?? ------------- Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.... |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 4:41pm
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Basant, The gain/loss% column would have been more accurate if calculated on CAGR basis. |
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 4:46pm
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Basant Ji,
As usual I have a question. Are you going to have this basket diversified or just add and remove stocks on their own merit irrespective of their sectors? BTW   to all Teddies.------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: wild dog
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 5:31pm
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Basant Sir, Surely you would like to replace HDFC Bank and HDFC from your below list. |
Posted By: ajayganmohan
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 5:51pm
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Dear Mr Basanth Kunar : I am a newbie. The stocks recommended in the latest Report Card are as back as 2006 and are already quoting high. Wat do you suggest? Are we supposed to buy at these levels? Please advise. Regards, Mohana Ganesh |
Posted By: abhishekbasu
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:31pm
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To my mind all the stocks in the TED XI are thematically related to the consumption story except Voltamp and Thermax which are more core sector (infra) plays. Basant, Any view on these two?
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:37pm
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Blue Star, Thermax and Voltas are also infra plays. Their consumer biz is negligible. |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:46pm
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I dont know much about Thermax but Bluestar and Voltas are proxy consumer plays.They serve the companies that serve the consumers.
------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 7:36pm
Yes, fastest finger first! The answer is yes, I am heavily biased on consumer companies right now both in talk and also in walk!
It is an avoid. I was wrong in my initial assessment but am sure that a bad management in a good/mediocre business can only provide a result that can't beat the grade of the people who manage the business.
Good suggestion. can anyone suggest how it is done in Excel?
Haven't the earnings and fundamentals moved with the price? If they have then we should not get anchored on historic prices.I'd rather buy a five bagger whose earnings have moved up six times then a two bagger whose earnings have gone up less then two times.
One of the better ways to play the infra space. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 11:03pm
| How do we know whether it is too high to buy OR is this decision personal? |
Posted By: gauravsinghal2
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 12:17pm
well when I saw the comparisons, i immediately caught the error in representation. % comparisons only make a good sense when they are on annualized basis.
The formula is CAGR in %= {[ ((Final money)/(Initial Money))^(1/time in years) ]*100}-100
Suppose the sum has become 10 times in 3.6 years, then 10^(1/3.6) is 1.297, i.e. the money has become 1.297 times every year, ie 29.7% Annual Return.
If 20% return in 7 months, then (1.2)^(12/7)= 1.367, i.e. 36.7 CAGR.
This formula can be arrived at using very simple maths, and generally CFA level-1 courses have plenty of such practice problems.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 7:30am
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A Texas BA II Plus calculator (which I frequently use and which is recommended for Int. CFA ) does the job pretty well but there was some function on Excel which did it that is what I wanted to know. I just wanted an easy way out instead of plugging in those numbers which is taught in secondary school in any case. P*(1+ r/100) to the power of n. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 10:16am
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I use this link to calculate http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/CAGR.aspx As for Excel, I tried to pull down data from livemint.com but somehow the figures in the column keep changing every few weeks! |
Posted By: rpradeephere
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 12:31pm
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I did some minor analysis. Findings as follows:
CAGR return vs Sensex return in same period for the stocks. Please note that companies in which one has invested for less than 1 year may not show a realistic assessment of the CAGR. Case in point is Zydus wellness. Company TED CAGR return Sensex CAGR return Zydus Wellness 147% -3% Voltamp 123% 52% Hawkins Cooker 90% 11% Page Industries 38% 0% Blue Star 36% 10% Titan Industries 34% 12% Yes Bank 33% 11% HDFC Bank 29% 15% HDFC, 24% 13% Thermax 4% 8% Voltas -4% -2% However the above does not make much sense in isolation. I did another analysis which is simply the portfolio returns or the IRR. I assumed we would have invested 100,000 Rs in each stock recommended on the recommended date and Rs 100,000 in the market. The returns generated in that case are: TED Portfolio: 43% Sensex return: 11% This would be a better way of comparing.If we had invested 1L in each stock and sensex on the date of reco, we would have invested totally 11L. This would have become 34L in TED portfolio and 15L in Sensex. This does not highlight the time value of money aspect since we would have invested each lakh in different times, but crudely gives an idea of how much we would have invested and how much we would have got out of it vis-a-vis the sensex. |
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 1:23pm
Is above figure AAGR or CAGR?? Lagta hai kuch mistake ho gaya hai. 
http://img339.imageshack.us/i/ctcompoundingcopy.gif/"> 
http://img29.imageshack.us/i/ctcompounding2copy.gif/"> 
------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 4:24pm
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If you want to see CAGR returns for a stock or a portfolio, just open a free account in ValueResearchOnline.com - all you need to do is enter the purchase date, quantity of shares & purchase price of each stock you buy.
Unlike Moneycontrol and other online portfolios, Valueresearchonline shows only the CAGR returns (which makes more sense).
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Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 4:27pm
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i had an old account with valueresearch, mainly for mutual funds. I didn't know they show CAGR. Thanks for the info. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: Alok Bhola
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 4:42pm
Actually VIII std school maths book would have plenty of such practice problems....remember the compound interest formula taught in VIII std ! |
Posted By: adityancs
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 4:52pm
Thanks for the valuable information. I knew the site only for Mutual fund analysis. During discussion we come to know lot of facts.
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Posted By: bullzi
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 5:17pm
Basantji, you may use XIRR. Refer to: http://www.experiglot.com/2006/10/17/how-to-use-xirr-in-excel-to-calculate-annualized-returns/ http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/calculate-a-compound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-HP001122506.aspx ------------- It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong - George Soros |
Posted By: deepinsight
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 5:21pm
Do they incorporate stock split or bonus etc.? It seems many sites do not reflect such corporate actions. ------------- "Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 5:23pm
| You need to mention the split/bonus ratio manually, and it automatically adjusts the price/quantity. |
Posted By: praveen
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 10:18pm
There are lot of easy ways of doing it. One simple way is to use "RATE" function. ------------- The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey |
Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2010 at 9:44pm
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Is Voltas still that interesting? Or we should replace it with something else and keep Blue Star only?
------------- DD |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2010 at 9:16am
Valid argument. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: mangai
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 5:09pm
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Hello sir
Can someone please advice me about india cements.. is it a good time to buy????
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 9:31pm
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Cement is a tough business to run and even tougher to own!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 9:40pm
We could possibly replace it with TTK Prestige which should easily outperform Voltas. ------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 9:47pm
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What about having a good logistic/Transport company...I thinks as FDI in multibrand retail has open up by indian government, we should bet on a good logistic/Transport company...what is your view on this basantji??
------------- Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free.... |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 12:06pm
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Mahindra Lifespaces, perhaps. The management is steadily improving performance by developing SEZs in collaboration with state governments. In the outskirts of the new SEZs, company is constructing houses for those coming to work at the SEZs. ML has low debts in its books, but each SPV carries its own debt. But with the land tied up, there are assets to back the debt. |
Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 10:39am
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I heard Jim Rogers, RJ everybody speaking about agricultural sector, if we could have some inclusion in that space that would be nice.
Views are always welcome.
Regards
Supratik
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 11:04am
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To make money it is not necessary to do every conceivable business so why should it be necessary to buy them?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: TonyMathew
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2010 at 11:50am
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I like that Basantji.... matches with know all about a few great businesses that you'd like to own. I guess it would be difficult to undersand and get to know every business....... ------------- Tony Mathew |
Posted By: tejas
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2010 at 1:59am
Is it necessary to have HDFC and HDFC Bank in the TED XI ? Especially since HDFC mkt cap is 87,000 cr and HDFC Bank at 94,000cr. ( I read on another thread that you do not hold Large caps and sold Bharti when it reached 20,000cr. ) Are they not a drag to the portfolio ? ------------- Earnings, Earnings, Earnings. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2010 at 5:34am
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The ultimate test of an underlying business is its ability to grow with consistent generation of internal capital and even at this base these twins are growing at 25%-30% which is really commendable. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vaib
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2010 at 11:43am
| HDFC duo look like magic to me. |
Posted By: pavithra194
Date Posted: 29/Jul/2010 at 10:08am
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Posted By: cruz55
Date Posted: 31/Jul/2010 at 1:04pm
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Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2010 at 2:55pm
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Hi Basantji, Just wanted to put the same question posted by dipankar66. Is it necessary to keep both Voltas and Blustar in the portfolio? I have seen your post corresponding to that and awaiting your further reply.
Please let us know if there are better options in the same space like Whirlpool or Hitachi.
I also wanted to ask you if it would be wise to make fresh investmensts in Page Industries or VIP for the next couple of years.
Thanks as always for your response.
Thanks and Regards
Supratik
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2010 at 2:59pm
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We will change one of them but let's get a better alternative in terms of expected long term performance. I do not like and own Vip because they were inconsistent but have to confess that I have done very little research on the same. Page is a great business at a not so great valuation but as we say good things never come cheap. Timing entries and exits should be a matter of personal judgement though. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2010 at 9:40pm
Would like to have a discussion on Indraprastha Gas/Gujarat Gas which have great YoY growth of over 25%, great moat of locked users, good cash flow, good cash on balance sheet. Can be interesting business to own as this business of piped residential gas will arrive in lot many cities in India. ------------- DD |
Posted By: Jaishrikrishna
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2010 at 9:46pm
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Hi Basantjee,
Don't you think, pharma sector, deserves to be in TEDXI. ------------- Don't Buy and Hold, Buy and Homework / Fish see the bait,but not the hook; Men see the profit, but not the peril. |
Posted By: bobbyusd
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2010 at 11:20am
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The problem with IGL is the licensing part, which is up for auction every few years. Besides to what degree can the business be scaled up, given the area of operation. On the positiv note, gas is something which is used everyday be it in autos, homes or industries.
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Posted By: tarkeshwar
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2010 at 7:33pm
While I am sure TED beats sensex hands down, just to be fair to ourselves, above figures suffer from survival bias (loosers dropped: ex: dish tv) and the date of inclusion in TED XI being different from date of start of discussion. |
Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2010 at 7:51am
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HI BASANT JI,
UR NEXT PICKS ?
I SOLD PAGE AROUND 1150.
 REGARDS.
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Posted By: nazgul
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2010 at 10:53am
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Dhiraj bhai,
page can go upto 1500 by next 2 quarters.....
maybe you sold it too soon.......
------------- I don't do funds, i do fundas. |
Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2010 at 8:53pm
HI,
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Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2010 at 9:44pm
Why  Dhiraj Bhai? Buy tomorrow na.. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2010 at 10:18pm
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there is something called "covering your sales" if you feel you have made a mistake.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2010 at 5:58am
hi,
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Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2010 at 6:44pm
It is nice that IGL grows within its means and not in a leveraged way with debts, equity dilution etc. The entire economy will slowly turn into gas based to a large extent...US is trying it, so RIL acquiring shale gas assets there... If IGL is given the licence to operate in many cities, it will be quite difficult to set up the infrastructure in place (pipelines etc.), procure gas lifeline without stretching itself. But in spite of that, IGL is growing @ 30%, and is debt free, is expected to do better and better. And home consumers of cooking gas don't change suppliers unless desperate, so IGL has assured locked in cash flow as well as entry barrier for new entrants. ------------- DD |
Posted By: jainandank
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2010 at 12:19pm
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Except Zydus , most of recommendations are pretty old, would be more appealing if we could see some new stocks thanks |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2010 at 9:45am
In search for looking for new ideas we must not forget about the business. Taking small profits and moving ahead is not the best way to make money.. as somebody said, the best buy can be what you have already bought and hold. |
Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 17/Aug/2010 at 3:19pm
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Hi Basanstji, We always have had regards for your opinion that 'good thing never come cheap' but do you think that Zydus is moving a little ahead in our curve.
I am not trying to make a bet on the timings of my entry or exit but just wanted to confirm that we are not being too extravagant.
Thanks and Regards
Supratik
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Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2010 at 12:21pm
| maybe something like Artson Engineering (A Tata Projects Company), could be included in the Ted X1...maybe instead of voltas maybe... this years AGM was very encouraging. one should not just look at the PE and reject it, but its very important to dig a lot in this company. the growth potential in the next 5 yrs of exponential. |
Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 31/Aug/2010 at 7:23pm
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Basant Sir, In equitydesk report card, will it not be appropriate to mention recommendation date as the date on which stock was included in TEDXI?
------------- If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett |
Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2010 at 6:16pm
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"As the rich nations have gotten richer, they have also become fatter. As today's chart of the day shows, US tops the list for having the most obese population, while Indians in contrast are much leaner. The reasons are not hard to find. With incomes rising, lifestyles have also seen a perceptible change. And although India in comparison lags much behind, the incidence of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes has been increasing. Little wonder then, that if one looks at the product portfolio of pharmaceutical companies across the world including India, most of the revenue generating products would cater to the obesity related diseases. "
Basantji,
Our inclusion of Zydus in the TEDXI is very rational with a sugarfree product.
I do not know if I am asking the right question but what would be the entry cost and criteria to such a business by other players?
It should not become an intensely competitive business leaving none of the players in healthy profits flows.
~Supratik
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Posted By: brijwanth
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2010 at 11:46am
I don't know if it helps but Wipro has a similar product and it is little cheaper than sugar free. I hear lot of similar products but see none in the stores. ------------- Past will not be repeated in future but peaks and troughs do revert to mean, period and order of those peaks, troughs and mean days is the one i.e. not predictable- riser3 valuations |
Posted By: bearish
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2010 at 7:18pm
| basantji when's the next report card coming out? |
Posted By: brmeena
Date Posted: 20/Oct/2010 at 9:56pm
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why don't we include manappuram general finance into TED XI?
This company have great RoE y-o-y and consistly growing above 50% yearly.
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Posted By: ramsey123
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2010 at 12:24pm
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Basant, Could you please tell me what the CAGR returns for TED XI have been "since inception" so to speak?
Also, this should include any changes that have been made to the TED XI (i.e. one stock replaced by another by booking loss/gain in the previous stock).
Would you have this data? I'm planning to invest long-term in the TED XI stocks and so this data would be very valuable for me, and I'm sure others too.
Thank you.
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Posted By: teal1066
Date Posted: 01/Dec/2010 at 1:24pm
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hi im new to this forum..
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Posted By: coconut
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2010 at 12:36pm
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Hi,
May I know whats TED XI
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Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2010 at 12:58pm
Its a team of stocks that play cricket...:)
Please refer to 1st page.
~Supratik
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Posted By: Gurdial
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2010 at 1:43pm
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=429 ------------- To be a successful business owner and investor, you have to be emotionally neutral to winning and losing. Winning and losing are just part of the game. |
Posted By: coconut
Date Posted: 02/Dec/2010 at 9:14am
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Posted By: haricharan.ln
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2010 at 11:08am
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Basantji,
Was just going through this thread today and wanted to know your views on STFC. Do you think it will be a good idea to include a co. like STFC in the TED XI?It has an excellent management, a consistent track record, operates in a niche field with huge opportunity going forward (currently only 20% market share) and a big moat .It has also been consistently coming up with new ideas to grow its business (automalls/kiosks etc.)
Thanks in advance for your comments
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Posted By: haricharan.ln
Date Posted: 04/Dec/2010 at 11:59am
Also there is the other aspect of shift from the unorganized sector to the organized with virtually limited competition.
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