Print Page | Close Window

TheEquityDesk Report Card - June 2009

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Identifying Multibaggers
Forum Discription: Discuss specific attributes that investors could look at while choosing multibaggers. Also point out certain factors that investors tend to overlook while finding multibaggers.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2217
Printed Date: 07/May/2025 at 1:36pm


Topic: TheEquityDesk Report Card - June 2009
Posted By: basant
Subject: TheEquityDesk Report Card - June 2009
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 12:51pm

Dear Investors,

 

After five quarters of tremendous pain we had one quarter of phenomenal pleasure. Mid caps, small caps, Larges caps, junk stocks, blue chips all went up. The only thing that has not yet gone up is the Investor’s confidence. On the other hand the only things that has not yet gone down is the skepticism. Well, it is an 0ld stock market adage that Bull markets climb a wall of worry and let’s see if this bull climbs one.

 

The common advice in the market is now that stocks have gone up one should be stock specific since everything will not move. But markets have always remained stock specific unless you were buying index funds which in any case have performed better then 99% of the Indian Mfs since March 2009.

 

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=429 -   http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2110 -  and   http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1292 -   and replace them with http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=37 - ENIL  and Axis Bank !There is a provision of introducing one more consumer company in the TED XI and I shall do so after meeting the management later this month.

 

Now this quarter’s TED report card looks strange with Voltamp at the top but that is by default rather then design. The price at which I recommended Voltamp is being taken as the recommended price whereas for Thermax we are taking the price as the one where the discussion was initially started (Rs 690 ) rather then at Rs 160 when we got hot on this one. But these are cyclical services and one needs to play them with care because they cut badly when the trend changes.

 

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2110 -  and   http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1292 -  are being moved into the Emerging companies section.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain (Loss)

 

Date

Price

Price

Absolute %

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=151&PID=638#638 - Jain Irrigation

13-Aug-06

249

638

156.22

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2110 -

1-Apr-09

340

860

152.94

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=322 - L&T

6-Sep-06

639

1578

146.95

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=451 -

6-Oct-06

137

335

144.53

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=295 - Everest Kanto

8-Sep-06

80

194

142.50

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=102 - Crisil

2-Aug-06

1550

3429

121.23

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=277 -

20-Jul-06

697

1495

114.49

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=217 - Kotak Bank

27-Sep-06

314

665

111.78

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1397 - ONGC

25-Nov-05

530

1064

100.75

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=221 - Bharti  Airtel 

24-Aug-06

407

802

97.05

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=593 - Infoedge

19-Oct-06

320

628

96.25

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=696 - GBN

9-Jan-07

50

97

94.00

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=117 -

5-Aug-06

1245

2381

91.24

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=69 - Mc Dowell

18-Jul-06

490

872

77.96

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=591 -

17-Nov-06

78

137

75.64

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=309 -

18-Aug-06

749

1174

56.74

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=277 - ICICI Bank

20-Jul-06

467

728

55.89

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=561&PN=1 - Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

138

55.06

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=173 - Amarraja Batteries

15-Aug-06

66.4

94

41.57

Nestle

31-Mar-08

1490

2021

35.64

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=577 - IndiaBulls

13-Nov-06

142

191

34.51

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=135 -

26-Jul-06

225

302

34.22

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=409&PN=1 - Sun Pharmaceuticals

25-Sep-06

930

1164

25.16

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - TV 18

20-Jul-06

101

118

16.83

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1664 - Marico

15-Mar-08

63

73

15.87

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1296 - Axis Bank

21-Oct-07

735

848

15.37

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=128 - Tata Investments

8-Aug-06

337

386

14.54

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=249 - Indraprastha Gas

1-Sep-06

117

134

14.53

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=27 - Infosys

19-Jul-06

1612

1795

11.35

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1462 - Dabur

18-Dec-07

116

126

8.62

Monsanto

21-Sep-06

1488

1591

6.92

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=502 - Geodesic

17-Oct-06

90

95

5.56

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=305 - Aditya Birla Nuvo

10-Sep-06

836

881

5.38

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=224 - Financial Technologies 

26-Aug-06

1252

1319

5.35

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1194 - Max India

5-Sep-07

202

208

2.97

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1366 - Tata Tea

15-Nov-07

750

727

-3.07

Reliance Capital

3-Jun-07

972

932

-4.12

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=37 - ENIL

23-Jul-06

186

178

-4.30

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=242 - Havells

30-Aug-06

285

259

-9.12

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=535 - Opto Circuits

26-Oct-06

184

162

-11.96

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1308 - ICRA

25-Oct-07

960

781

-18.65

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=682 - Adlabs

2-Jan-07

430

336

-21.86

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=376 - Shanti Gears

20-Sep-06

64

45

-29.69

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1235 - J & K Bank

23-Sep-07

710

484

-31.83

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=103 - Trent

2-Aug-06

715

485

-32.17

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1599 - SKF India

16-Feb-08

358

239

-33.24

javascript:winOpener%28pop_up_topic_admin.asp?TID=1715,admin,1,1,480,265%29 - India Infoline

25-Nov-07

200

126

-37.00

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=243 - Kohinoor Foods

30-Aug-06

78

49

-37.18

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=216&PID=1145#1145 - Maharashtra Seamless

22-Aug-06

365

222

-39.18

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1292 -

15-Oct-07

690

417

-39.57

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=126 - Indian Hotels

7-Aug-06

116

66

-43.10

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1561 -

28-Jan-08

220

124

-43.64

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1592 - Sintex

15-Feb-08

448

223

-50.22

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=270&PN=1 - Network18

20-Jul-06

238

118

-50.42

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=362 - Bharti Shipyard

17-Sep-06

337

167

-50.45

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=181 - Zicom ELectronics

16-Aug-06

185

88

-52.43

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=441 - PVR

1-Oct-06

255

112

-56.08

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=233 - Suzlon Energy

28-Aug-06

242

106

-56.20

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=701 - Moser Baer

15-Jan-07

220

88

-60.00

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=100 - Inox Leisure

2-Aug-06

125

48

-61.60

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=856 - -   TV

18-Apr-07

103

38

-63.11

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?FID=30&TID=231&PN=1 - Nitco Tiles

28-Aug-06

169

61

-63.91

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1078 - LMW!

14-Jul-07

2930

973

-66.79

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1365 - Edelweiss Capital

15-Nov-07

1400

380

-72.86

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=694 - Nucleus Software

8-Jan-07

351

85

-75.78

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=263 - Vimta Laboratories

3-Sep-06

159

31

-80.50

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1122 - Champagne Indage

7-Aug-07

690

74

-89.28

 

Stocks in maroon belong to http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=429 -  

Regards,

 

Basant Maheshwari



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Replies:
Posted By: chic_1978
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 1:42pm
basantjee
 
would appreciate if you can give ur views scriptwise on present TED XI in brief in relation current price & future prospects...tnx
 
 


-------------
happy & wise investing

Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 1:43pm
basantjee,

why are we replacing Axis bank from equity desk 11? Is it to reduce the weightage to Financials or you feel that thermax/voltamp will provide better returns than axis bank over 2-3 years?

pl enlighten

Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 2:01pm
so why is Dish TV in maroon? I thought it was removed from TED XI.

IMHO It would allow for easier navigation if the TED XI stocks were carried right up front instead being scattered all around.

Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 2:08pm
Originally posted by shivkumar

so why is Dish TV in maroon? I thought it was removed from TED XI.

IMHO It would allow for easier navigation if the TED XI stocks were carried right up front instead being scattered all around.


DISH is still there. See the other post.


-------------

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by nikhil090

basantjee,

why are we replacing Axis bank from equity desk 11? Is it to reduce the weightage to Financials or you feel that thermax/voltamp will provide better returns than axis bank over 2-3 years?

pl enlighten
 
Both. ALso if industry recovers the financials will lag the industrials. ALso most of the Private Banks appear fairly valued and as with most large caps we cannot have a significant earnings upgrade.
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: ashishbarot
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 2:37pm
I too thought that DISH TV will b removed, basantji do you think in near future voltamp will give more returns than axis. coz currently its trading around 865.

-------------
You do not require an invitation to make profits.

Posted By: shadows
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 2:52pm
Basant., is the bonus issue in NUCLEUS S/W factored in !!! I own this stock,bought recently 

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by ashishbarot

I too thought that DISH TV will b removed, basantji do you think in near future voltamp will give more returns than axis. coz currently its trading around 865.
 
DIsh should be EBIDTA positive by this quarter but yes, it has been a painful stock but the pain is relatively les since everything else has fallen. If the economy recovers then industrials will outperform the tricky part was that Voltamp moved up 150% very very fast.
 
 
Originally posted by shadows

Basant., is the bonus issue in NUCLEUS S/W factored in !!! I own this stock,bought recently 
 
I think so but Nucleus is a cheap stock what we have to look at is the trigger that will make it expensive. WHen TCS is available at 7 times Fy11 the second liners will be under pain.
 
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: kumardiwesh
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 3:27pm
Dish TV already turned EBITDA positive last quarter (March 2009).

-------------
"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett

Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 11:37pm
Originally posted by basant

Originally posted by nikhil090

basantjee,

why are we replacing Axis bank from equity desk 11? Is it to reduce the weightage to Financials or you feel that thermax/voltamp will provide better returns than axis bank over 2-3 years?

pl enlighten
 
Both. ALso if industry recovers the financials will lag the industrials. ALso most of the Private Banks appear fairly valued and as with most large caps we cannot have a significant earnings upgrade.
 
 
 
I thought you prefer Axis Bank over HDFC Bank from a valuation point.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 7:56am
The best way to check any Bank stock is to see how many times it trades at above the Bank rate and equating it with the RoE so assuming a long term bank rate of 8% and Axis has a RoE of say 20% then 2.5 times price to book makes it fairly valued; HDFC Bank does 16% RoE so 2 times price t book is kind of ok valuation then for HDFC Bank you can give it one more time based on their 50 quarter history of relentless profit growth so 3 times is where we reach and there the stock becomes kind of fully valued.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 10:00am
Originally posted by basant

The best way to check any Bank stock is to see how many times it trades at above the Bank rate and equating it with the RoE so assuming a long term bank rate of 8% and Axis has a RoE of say 20% then 2.5 times price to book makes it fairly valued; HDFC Bank does 16% RoE so 2 times price t book is kind of ok valuation then for HDFC Bank you can give it one more time based on their 50 quarter history of relentless profit growth so 3 times is where we reach and there the stock becomes kind of fully valued.
 
 Basanatji, Thanks for the clarification. Axis Bank is trading at P/b of 3 times whereas HDFC bank is more that 4 times. But you have removed Axis bank from TED 11 retaining HDFC Bank. Could you please enlighten me the reason ?

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jul/2009 at 10:50am
Look at Fy10 BV. Also HDFC Bank will get conversion from the parent with the present stcok price.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: leo2007
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 10:56am

There is a provision of introducing one more consumer company in the TED XI and I shall do so after meeting the management later this month.

========================================================
 
Basantji,
 
Any developments  ?

Posted By: neerajlulla
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 12:19pm

buy nhpc



-------------
buy and forget for long term


Print Page | Close Window