Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio June 2008
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1901
Printed Date: 07/May/2025 at 4:40am
Topic: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio June 2008
Posted By: basant
Subject: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio June 2008
Date Posted: 08/Sep/2008 at 3:12pm
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Colors in blue represent stocks where holdings have gone up and in red represent stocks where holdings have gone down.
· One of the smartest investors in the country believes in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/diversification.asp - benefits of portfolio concentration . His top 5 holdings account for 57.719% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.03% of his portfolio. · The recent stock market crash this portfolio has seen a notional loss of around 40%. From the January highs · This portfolio has the latest market cap and the Price to earnings ratio as sourced from money control. The average http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=382 - adjusted for the companies that have no earnings is around 27 times! But most of these smaller capitalized companies in sectors that are scalable. · The underlying theme in the portfolio remains domestic consumption (Titan and Pantaloon,), Infrastructure (Nagarjuna Construction and Punj Lloyd) , pharma (Lupin and Bil Care) and financial Services (Crisil and Karur Vysya Bank.) · It is hard to find a cyclical or commodity stock in his portfolio. · Unlike the general investor none of these stocks are large caps in the true sense of the definition. Of Course he could be holding future positions in large caps but the point that I am trying to make is money is made in http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=113 - . The notional losses that an investor can suffer are also the highest in these stocks. It is very important for an investor not to convert these notional losses in actual losses by selling the shares in despair. · Most of these stocks are being held for over 4 years. Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail fall in that category. Others like Crisil are being held for as long as 10 years. – Clearly Time and not timing is the key to these markets. · Almost all these companies are looking at a huge http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - · We do cover companies with huge scale of opportunity http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1843&FID=37&PR=3 - TheEquityDesk Report card June 2008 section.· These shares are held by Rakesh and his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala and form a part of his disclosed portfolio. He could be holding more shares through companies, trusts, proprietary accounts which are not in the public domain. · To know more about investing legends see the section http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp%5dWorlds%20greatest%20Investors%5b/URL%5d - http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp - World's greatest Investors ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
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Replies:
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 08/Sep/2008 at 8:47am
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Hi Basant, Thanks a lot!! This looks very current and updated as Nagarjuna and Champagne Indage, his recent picks, are also seen here. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: smart_prof
Date Posted: 09/Sep/2008 at 1:23pm
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Basantji,
Pl check garware wall ropes is 500000(5 lacs) not 50 lcas pl correct ... Cnfm |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Sep/2008 at 2:52pm
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nccl has bagged 1000cr order from andhra govt to build raj bhavan.nccl has also becom aleader in waste mgmnt co. source hindu bussinessline ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 09/Sep/2008 at 7:24pm
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Can anyone educate us on the difference between Nagarjuna, Punj Lloyd and Voltas? Why should one invest in one over the other. For instance, Basant would favour Voltas while RJ would favour Nagarjuna. And someone else Punj. Which stock is likely to provide greater earnings over a three-five year period with least risk? |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 2:40pm
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insider buying in nccl mgmnt aquires 2% stake thru open mkt purchase for fin co owned by promotor.total stake of nccl in fin co now up to 6% ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 6:17pm
| Voltas is into AC. Punj LLoyd is much better than Nagarjuna. Nagarjuna is better than Voltas. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 6:59pm
| voltas is more than AC. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2008 at 11:37pm
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Am skeptical about GMR. The execution risk is highest with GMR. And the guys keep making huge promises. |
Posted By: heponly
Date Posted: 17/Sep/2008 at 11:26am
| http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/long-term-indian-bull-mkt-still-alive-rakesh-jhunjhunwala/10/50/356959 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/long-term-indian-bull-mkt-still-alive-rakesh-jhunjhunwala/10/50/356959 |
Posted By: BGKGURU
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 12:03pm
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mother of boom mkt is still to come-rakesh jhunjhunwala on cnbctv18 ------------- Respect the Markets and do MAKE mistakes, but see to it that you can afford to stay in the markets even after the mistake-RJ |
Posted By: sumukh
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 2:53pm
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member_profile.asp?PF=1192&FID=37 - shivkumar , Voltas seems to be better if you compare margin of safety. Voltas intrinsic value is approx. Rs. 296. For Punj Llyod, it is Rs. 309. So voltas is preferrable as per Graham. But Punj Lloyd has orders worth Rs. 16000 crores. I will invest equally in both the scrips. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 3:34pm
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where did you get that intrinsic value figure? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 3:58pm
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Making Intrinsic figures out of a recommendation(or analyst report) could be dangerous to ones health. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 9:51pm
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Punj was the first stock to tank when market started falling in Jan.
During recent crash, Punj is showing amazing resistance. Do you guys
think, it is nice idea to move some money from Punj to beaten down
stocks? What should be the investment strategy in these kind of
situations.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 9:54pm
Does Voltas has any investments in group companies? ------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 9:57pm
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As an investment, they have invested in some group companies. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: sumukh
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2008 at 11:01pm
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Basantji, I got mathematical model from one website. I don't remember the link. This model calculates 6 valuations. P/E Valuation PEG Valuation P/S Valuation EV/EBITDA Valuation Price/CashFlow Valuation Book value valuation. We have to enter various parameters of company like, EPS, P/E ratio, growth in %, book value , cash flow etc. Also we have to enter competitors data. Typically 4 - 5 competitors. Then competitor average is taken. & 6 valuations are done. The final average gives "Intrnsic Value" of the company. In case of Voltas, I have considered following competitors. Blue Star Whirlpool Hitachi Llyod Electric Fedders Llyod In case of Punj Lioyd, the competitors are Thermax Engineers India Texmaco Titagarh Wagons The valuation will change every quarter based on the results. We will have to consider TTM data. Also it is better to put top 5 competitors to get more realistic valuation. The experts in the forum should guide. Another important thing, I require typically 30 min. to enter various data and get the final valuation. |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 12:15pm
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Autoline industries is shown in red in the portfolio.The no of shares have actually increased. pls look into it. |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 3:07pm
| rakeshji says the mother of bull markets is still to come. I do not think so. When he started out in 1985, the Sensex was at 500 and now it is at 15,000, a 30 bagger. According to my estimates, the Sensex can move to 45,000 levels in 2030, a 3 bagger. stick to good quality midcaps and you can get 10 baggers. the best bull market is over. the sustainable bull market is yet to come. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 4:04pm
| in that case fast growing mid-caps will replace the slow movers on the Sensex |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 5:10pm
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I am also amazed at a lack of any biography on rj.What he has achieved is phenomenal. It cannot be solely attributed to his investing prowess. There are two more factors to him. One is trading- the principle which says is " let your profits run, Cut out your losses. Hold a gaining share and dump a losing share. It is easy to lose a rupee than to gain a rupee. And another strategy which is to allocate a part of your capital to futures and options and to use leverage. RJ lost 800 crores in the january crash. But he had a capital of 4000 Crores at that time. Thus he probably used leverage for 20% of his capital. We would probably lose our capital, not rj.
1985 2007 2008
500-Sensex 21,000 15,000
5000RS-Rj's capital 4000 Crores 2500 Crores
Increase in Sensex 42Times 30 Times
Increase in the capital 80,00,000 Times 50,00,000 Times
How did he achieve this absurd returns?
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 5:26pm
| RJ started with Rs 5000 in 1985. He must have added a couple of crores a few months or so down the line. But he is not going to tell you this. |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 5:28pm
| sure. shivji, he comes from a middleclass family. he might have added a few lakhs. |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 5:34pm
| The guy is very secretive about his early years. Most of the time he tells interviewers that he is only answerable to his wife. So it is quite possible his father-in-law provided him with capital during his early years! |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 6:34pm
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Yes, Shivji we need to be very careful about secretive guys. Who knows! Probably Dawood Ibrahim gave him crores before he ran away to Pakistan.
As one old man said in a discussion a few years back,"behind every Great fortune, there is money that is illgotten".
If you do not want to be told about yourself, there is something you do not want the world to know.
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Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 19/Sep/2008 at 8:45pm
He might have started with Rs.5000 in 1985 but no one knows how much money he had access to in later stages via debt , via black money etc . ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2008 at 11:55pm
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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is India’s most successful investors; one of the stock market’s most successful stories. The sometimes maverick, often mercurial but always a respected voice. He is a wealth creator and a man who anyone who enters the stock market wants to be. Q: You are the first Individual Wealth Creator we are chronicling. I am curious to know, what does the term mean to you? A: I don't know when I started on in life, I had some ambitions. My parents never liked the idea that I should go to the stock market. I started life financially with just USD 100 or only Rs 5000 and my first thought was that when I went to the markets, I had just come from Chartered Accountancy; used to earn Rs 150 a month. So my first concept in life was that I should be financially independent. I never started with the idea that I will be a great wealth creator and I will have some great wealth or anybody will know me. I thought I must be able to earn my daily bread. I loved the markets. I thought India was in a very initial stage and this would be one of the places which will develop and the opportunity would be huge. Q: Do you also find it odious sometimes because you are a wealth creator in your own right and I don't think you have taken on the mantle of leading a lot of people with you. But you get that. A stock that you would pick up will be picked up by others. They would want to know why Rakesh bought it - why he is buying so much or why he wants to buy more? A: I think these are all misconceptions. When you buy stocks, you should be ensured that other people will buy stocks. Then only you should buy the stocks. I have a different concept in life. If a stock is beautiful, the suitor will come. If a girl is beautiful a suitor will come. If a stock is beautiful, a suitor will come. So I don't search for suitors when I buy the stock. Q: Tell me where you have to be the most patient with the market? A: I think my greatest patience with the market was in 2001 September to April 2003. That was because I was a lone bull. I wrote an article in the Economic Times in June 2002 that India is on the threshold of a structural secular bull market and people said, he has bought stocks and he is caught and now he is asking us also to come into the cage. People didn’t just believe what I thought or what my opinion was. That was a testing period. Q: Did it bring confidence down to its knees for you? A: You have your conviction and I always staked what I could afford. So say, when markets went down in August 2002, I had no problems there. In spite of my opinion, I did not stake so much that if markets did not go up in the manner that I thought, I would be on the roads. I was well-off absolutely. So you know it was a trying time. But then there was a great dividend; the kind of bull market we had - 3000 to 21000. Q: And you really rode it didn’t you? There are so many terms people use about you - The young tiger, pin up boy of the bull market, India’s Warren Buffet. Do you find it pointless? Do you find it flattering? How do you take it? A: I don't know. I have learnt two things about the press and wives. When they something – don’t react. Q: Are you the same guy that you were? Are you the same guy you were 15-years back? A: Why are you asking me? Ask my friends, if I have changed in any way. Peer View: N Jayakumar, CEO, Prime Securitie says, “As earthy as it comes, he is as raw as it can be and he is as direct as it can hurt. He is all of this and I think at the end of the day it is not because he is a wealth creator, he is all of this, but he has been that since the time I have known him and he has just remained much of the same.” Q: Is It tough to be tight with people from the same community - the stock markets? Can you be close to some one who is part of the same? A: I am close to a lot of people from the stock market. Actually, my best friend and whom I consider my guru, Mr. Radhakrishna Damani - he is from the stock market. Actually he has taught me so much in life and we are the best of friends. We can discuss anything. We go on holidays together. We’ve done so many things together and my other friends - they are from the stock market. Also let me not pretend. I don't have much interest in life other than the stock market. Did you know: The name of Rakesh’s organisation is actually a combination of his initials and his wife’s initials. So, Rakesh plus Rekha equals RARE Enterprises. As Rakesh says, she is the only one he likes being answerable to. Peer View: Samir Arora, Helios Capital says, ” I am very impressed with Rakesh not because he has done so well in the stock market which itself is very impressive but to have done that without raising any controversy, without creating enemies, which is a problem in India for successful people.” Q: You are very much into the individual behind the business. Who runs it and how well it is run. Tell me how carefully you look at that when you look at a business that you wanted to be a part of? A: I look at the situation. I look at the possible outcomes and then I think what could be the outcome? For example, when I invested in Titan, my thinking was, can Titan become India’s largest specialist retailer? That was the question I asked myself. Will it always occupy a 50-60% share in branded jewellery? Will it always remain a leader in Indian watch industry? Will it enter into other areas of retailing? I asked myself all these questions and the answer I thought was yes. So this is the basic analysis I did. Then I went to the office - Titan office was like a young advertising agency. So I thought marketing is in their blood. I met their management team including their Managing Director. I was thoroughly impressed by them. I took the decision. I put my life behind it. Q: What impressed you? A: Their sheer approach. The Managing Director told me that the task is difficult. But we'll overcome it. We have to suck the capital and increase the profits and that's what they have done. So, when I take a decision there are three-four matters that I consider - opportunity. I am from the investment thought which says nobody can be bigger than the opportunity. Second, I look at the competitive ability. In a capitalist society, you cannot deliver product and make a profit unless you do it in a competitive manner and competitive does not mean the most expensive. Then I look at scalability. Scalability is very important. When I invested in Pantaloons, the biggest idea was can ten stores become five-hundred? It was written behind a Maruti -- when I grow will I be a Mercedes? Great are the challenges of scalability. Then what I look at is valuation. It’s important what you buy. It is more important what price you buy. Somebody bought Hindustan Lever at an Index of 2900 - the price was Rs 320. When the Index was 7000 - the price was Rs 145. You bought Hindustan Lever - best quality company, best pedigree and everything and I made lot of money by buying United Breweries and McDowell’s at a valuation of Rs 200 crore. There was no corporate governance. People told you you’re down the drain. I made five-times my money in two-years. Q: Sometimes there are tough lessons to learn as well? Just on the subject of valuations, you would be watching the media space and there are a couple of howlers over there by way of stock performance, for example, MiD DAY (Multimedia) - have there been more tough lessons to learn? A: Every mistake teaches you a lesson. There is always a risk in investing in midcap stocks because if they succeed, the gains are huge. If they don't succeed and scalability does not come, then the losses are also huge. I don't regret having invested in MiD DAY because I always allocate my assets and I don't do it in a planned manner. I don't put more than a certain percentage of my wealth in incomplete situations. So, I might have made a mistake. The decision is tough, but okay, the good comes with the bad. Peer View: Atul Suri, Rare Enterprise says,”I have known Rakeshji for over five-years and I have traded on his behalf. I use technical analyses but not once has he interfered in a single trade of mine and that is very special. For a very accomplished trader to see a different approach in trading and not interfere with him and that really comes from the basic thing I have noticed in him is that he respects other disciplines also to the markets.” Q: You're very patient, though? A: What is the choice? Q: The choice is to book out. A: Well, its not that I’m not booking out because I’m afraid to take a loss. I’m not booking out because I still think there is reason to believe that things can change. Q: Were you surprised Rakesh - could anybody have seen where we are right now in January this year? A: I have made presentations to show in October, that this is going to be an unprecedented fall. And I have reasoned out how much is the lending to subprime, and that this problem cannot be stopped by reducing interest rates. The American bull market has come to an end. It may be a long correction. I’ve made these presentations in writing. I have them on record. I don't say I foresaw the failure of any particular organisation but I thought it'll be very tough and I didn't rule out in my mind that some organisations can fail. Q: Is there any question in your mind that we as well are in a bear market? A: In India? Q: Yes. A: What is a bear market, what is a bull market, I don't know. Numerically - surely, since we have broken the last lows that we had in August 2007, we'll have to term it as a bear market. But I don't think the long-term Indian stock bull market has ended. I think it’s in interruption mode. This bull market is based on two factors. One is economic growth of India, which I think is based on factors that are irreversible, whether democracy, whether skills, whether demographics, whether cultural factors. They are irreversible. I think India’s economic growth will always trend upwards. Then it is based on the platforms that we have created to attract money into the Indian markets -- the trading strategies, the regulation and the under-exposure of Indians to equity. I will surely say that it’s an interruption. How long? Nobody knows. Q: You've been cautious, though, Rakesh, right till since last Samvat you've been striking a cautious note? A: If the Index instead of going from 3,000 to 21,000 had gone from 3,000 to 13,000, and then back to 11,000 - would that not have been a bull market? Then it would have been termed a bull market correction. So at levels, where you saw the participation, the valuations, you saw what was coming in the Western world, you saw the sheer corporate greed in India; you saw the senselessness with which people in India just wanted to buy anything. They were all indicators - so what is wrong in being cautious? Q: Are you feeling better about all those indicators? Do you think things have cooled down now? A: I think now we've begun to reverse slowly. Now things will be overdone but that’s the way markets are. As I told you, markets are like the weather. Whether you like it or not, you have to bear it. Q: There is courage of conviction as well, to be a wealth creator? If someone were to sit you down and ask you, do you think that over the next five years, Indian equities is still the place where you'll see the most significant wealth creation, would you say yes? A: I would think so, as far as Indian assets are concerned. I don't have much knowledge about global assets. My good friend Mr. Shankar Sharma has said, equity has one quality - it is always an asset which trends upwards. India will remain in a phase of very good economic growth for the next 30 years. Q: Do you feel we will have to be a lot more patient with it though, this time around? A: As I told you markets are like women, you have to be patient. Q: No, but you know we've had a fantastic run. We've had the mother of all bull runs in the past three years. A: I disagree with you. Q: You do? A: The mother of bull runs is still to come Q: Really? A: In my opinion, yes. But it could start after one-year. It could start after eighteen-months or after six-months. But the next high and the next bull market will be far bigger and have far more participation and far more excesses than we had in the last one-year. Peer View: Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE says, “He is so free with his information. He will willingly share with you his ideas. He will willingly share with you his investment style or his thought processes with the market and there is almost leisurely number of young men or Turtles as we call them on the street who’ve benefited enormously and handsomely from his advice including myself. Earlier in my career he really helped open my eyes, showed me how to dream and allowed me how to take position with the market. So above all, we respect that – the ability to share that information in a business that is so secretive - he is an open book, always willing to help.” Q: Do you see a lot of people who are part of the stock market, returning back some of the wealth creation? I know that you have a Jhunjhunwala Foundation. You're actually actively part of a lot of NGOs and you donate significantly amounts over there. Is that an important part of being a wealth creator for you - to spread it as well? A: I cannot forget my late father, who has never asked me ever that what is your wealth? The only thing that he would ask is how much charity have you done this year, and are you going to continue it or not? So, I’m making my own efforts towards some good social cause that I’m supporting. I’ve built a Home for 400 boys in New Bombay. God has given me one daughter and I’m going up 400 children. I cannot give them absolutely what I’ve given my daughter but I’ll send them to English medium schools. I’ll see that they have all the needs of life and I want to bring them to a stage where they can get good jobs and they can contribute back to the Home. I think the greatest wealth is giving the person ability to learn. Then I’m supporting lots of causes with children like girls' education. I'm supporting other small causes for street children. We're building a temple in Lonavala. It is my target in life. This year by budget is Rs 10 crore, next year it should be Rs 12.5 crore and on my twenty-fifth wedding anniversary, which is on February 21, 2012, the gift I want to give my wife is - I’m going to give Rs 500 crore to her foundation. Q: Is this a bigger high than being part of the stock market? A: I don't think it is a high. It is a duty. To donate and to help others are very good attributes. Urmila Jhunjhunwala, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Mother says,” When he was a little boy, whenever our friends used to come, he used to tell them which shares are good to buy. Rekha Jhunjhunwala, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s Wife, says, “I think the market is only first priority for him. His first wife is only market. When he started, he had nothing, absolutely nothing. Everyone used to say, what will you do in stock market? But he wanted to do that only.” Q: What's your biggest faith? A: Myself. I am confident of myself and I don’t rely on anybody. Q: What's the big dream for Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - the wealth creator because we have had entrepreneurs who say I want my business to go to XYZ level, I want my turnover to double, triple, four-times? A: I have two-three dreams in life. The first dream is that when I die and only truth of life is death, how many people come to my funeral and say, a good man has died. That is the greatest ambition in my life. Second thing is I want to earn the greatest wealth of the world in the most legitimate manner; practical legitimate manner and leave the largest part of it to charity. Rapid Fire: Q: Favourite trade – long or short? A: Long. Q: Rank the following companies on a scale of 1 to 10: Q: Reliance. A: I would rank it 2. Q: Infosys A: 1. Q: RNRL A: 9. Q: Titan. A: 8. Q: Answer the following questions with just bullish or bearish: Q: Crude. A: Bearish. Q: Gold. A: Neutral. Q: The S&P 500. A: Bearish. Q: The Indian bond market. A: I expect the yields to go down. I am bullish on the bond market. Q: The Nifty 50 A: I am bullish. Q: If you weren’t a man of the market, what would you be? A: I never think about it because being man of the market is so good and exciting. Q: The worst advice someone has ever given you about the market. A: You can never earn money in the market. You will go bankrupt. Q: And the best advice someone has ever given you about the market. A: Be careful. Be responsible. It’s fire. Q: You have told me what you want to be remembered as. But what's the one piece of advice you would give someone who wants to get into the stock market? A: First advice is respect the market. Have an open mind. Know what to stake. Know when to take a loss. Be responsible. VIA MONEYCONTROL < =1.1 ="http://bdv.bidvertiser.com/BidVertiser.dbm?pid=64644%26bid=204137" =text/> |
Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2008 at 7:57am
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Thank you TCSer. y the way, he ranks Infy 1, RIL 2, Titan 8, and RNRL 9 on a scale of 1 to 10. So my guess is 1 is tops and 10 is bottom. |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2008 at 8:11am
| Now, RJ is saying he wishes to earn money the legitimate way. Did he not earn it earlier? |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 6:07pm
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I was having look at Alphageo and look like excellent stock with very strong fundamentals?Any views anyone?
Good OP margins
Good ROCE
Very Less Debt
Market oppurtunity is good
Very strong june 08 result
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 7:28pm
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Are we not in the end of Crude Oil demand cycle??? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 7:49pm
| Are'nt crude prices still very high and doesn't companies still want to explore Oil? |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 7:56pm
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Once RIL's Oil/gas starts coming to the market and the drop of crude below $100 will not affect this company's future earnings?? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 8:07pm
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I was just reading RD's chat and this is what he says about oil / Software
Ramesh Damani: software is like oil...u need it to drive the company
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 8:14pm
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Well, at the moment, I dont know what else is software driving, but at least its driving the investors in software companies mad.....
just kidding, but I am at a total loss to see TCS make 52 week lows when dollar is making year highs against rupee. May be, this is the time we were waiting for..... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 8:16pm
| Viveki Software ka to thik hai par Oil ke bare me kya Khayal Hai Apka? |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 8:17pm
Hi chinki Sir,
It all depends upon at what cost they are producing oil.
Can someone provide the reserve estimate of the oil which RIL's blocks have, like the way ONGC provides information in its Annual report. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 8:19pm
hehehe...its like throwing dart blindfoldedly. These are big things, I have no clue on the same.
Oil is a political product besides economic product....and you never know where politics is headed for..... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 11:15pm
In the case of RPL, their Refinery Margins are the highest in this part of the world. So their cost of production will be less as they will be using the latest technology and they build huge capacities. Lot of companies which are using Furnace Oil, Diesel and Naptha for different purposes will shift to LNG/CNG which is cheaper and cleaner fuel. My argument is since US is expected to goto recession and our demand for oil coming down, will it not all these companies connected with Oil exploration will have tough time??? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Siddhartha
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 12:01pm
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I read an interview of Professor economist, who is oil expert and he is saying production cost of oil is around 20 $. It is all about restriction of supply, which makes oil around 100 $.
He was expacting oil prise around 90-110 $ in future.
Gas is generally cheper than oil.
There must be huge benefit for RIL from this gas, because they are giving too much weightage.
Even when they first found gas in KG Basin, Dhirubhai was in hospital for routine checking and Mukesh informed his father in night at 3 O' clock about this findings.
"Dhirubhai chota hath kab marthe the?"
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 12:02pm
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check, if they are the cheapest. Many refineries are coming in Middle East....
Can anyone put up the reserve estimate for RIL and stack it against ONGC and OVL and OIL.
The thing is ONGC doesnt make so much noise about its oil and gas finds, otherwise in oil E & P, ONGC is leader by a huge margin.
------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2008 at 3:57am
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Shell went under SEC scanner when they declared gas reserves are significantly less than what they were mentioned a year back.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2008 at 6:25pm
Chinkiji this might be true.But I guess prices are still high and copanies would still like to find oil if they can...
And I believe that human race will finish every last drops of Oil...
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Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2008 at 9:42pm
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As of now there is no suitable alternative to oil. Till that happens, there will be demand for oil.
Question is will it fetch $100 per brl.?? The need to to drill more & more wells will not be there in case the demand comes down?? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2008 at 11:34pm
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forget oil, but Is RJ still on Aptech's board.....?????
anyone looking at how Aptech is behaving as a stock? ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2008 at 5:46am
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Aptech is still owed by him and when IT slows down how can the training institutes ramp up. Its rather strange that inspite of being bearish on IT the big bull continues to back the training institutes. Ca, air hostess training makes a small percentage of turnover which is predominently IT based in India, China and other countries. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2008 at 9:59am
The thing is, these service companies dont have the strength of the assets which manufacturing companies. Perhaps the only asset strength I can visualise is that of net cash on the balance sheet, something which an INFY and a TCS, has lots of it. Is APTECH, very rich on net-cash basis?
In this kind of a market, asset-poor companies can get lynched to death.....so, mid-IT and small-IT and ITES companies may be in for a very tough ride and its only the promoters who can save the stocks from getting the company knocked out...... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2008 at 8:12pm
Vivek Sir, Are you referring to the replacement cost of assets as a cushion for the stock price of manufacturing companies?
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2008 at 8:43pm
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Yes.....in some ways, yes.
I am meaning the disposal value of assets, in case the need be. At the end of the day, book value is nothing but market/realisable value of assets-External liabilities. So, we have to take into account that those companies which dont have marketable asset which can fetch better than the historical cost on the balance sheet, will get a crueler punishment. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2008 at 9:23pm
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I get it. Thanks a lot for clarifying.
Do you think the numerical strength of a "commodity" ITES company and it's existing client relationships would give a downside cushion?
Afterall these would be the criterion based on which an acquirer would look at a BPO operation.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2008 at 10:03pm
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Are you meaning the bench-strength, typically called seats?
Dont know, but in bad times, they become a liability.Actually, I am talking in terms of knock-down scenario, not just a normal depressed scenario.
as far as client relationship is concerned, that may be a strength, but in bad times retaing client is far more difficult than retaining employees.
Service Sector will be butchered till the last drop of blood, in case those who are to be served decide not to be served......... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2008 at 12:52pm
Thanks for the replies Vivek Sir.
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Posted By: tigerz_style
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2008 at 12:13pm
| Did anyone had a chance to watch rakesh Jhunjunwala's interview on NDTV's Mind of the Market |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2008 at 2:27pm
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can anyone paste it here? ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2008 at 2:40pm
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Yes, saw that interview. He said almost the same things he said on CNBC-TV18. I searched on net, and the link to that interview is http://profit.ndtv.com/39853 - here . Seems there is an error in that link from the NDTV website itself. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: abhishekbasu
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2008 at 11:36am
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Here is the link: http://profit.ndtv.com/2008/09/28220145/Markets-dont-listen-to-logic.html |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2008 at 4:08pm
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Here's the entire transcript....
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, popularly known as India’s Warren Buffet, has a bullish long-term outlook. He is a well-known equity investment trader in India. Speaking to Namrata Brar of NDTV, he says that the global financial crisis doesn’t mean that India will not prosper. Jhunjhunwala fundamentally believes that India is going to be an outperforming market. He further says that he is bullish on the Indian rupee. He is optimistic about india’s growth. "If the Indian economy performs well, the money will come from Timbaktu, but it will come," he says.
NDTV: Let me start with the biggest fear ---Is the world crashing down?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA:: Well, at the moment it is. But it has to stop somewhere. I won’t say that the world is not crashing down. It is crashing down but it has to stop to find the flow somewhere. NDTV: What is that flow, Rakesh?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I wish I knew…
NDTV: Somewhere it becomes impossible to say. You know gold is being sold for the value of brass.. so somewhere that logic comes in.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Markets don’t always listen to logic in the short term, but as far as India is concerned, I think that there is a very good opportunity and fundamentally I believe that India is going to be an out performing market.
NDTV: You don’t see the level of 3200 or sub-10000 which that every body is talking about now?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I feel anything can happen in the market, in the condition that we are, I think we will not get there easily and market is showing resistance to growing. It’s reacting to bearish news with great resistance. So I feel the market will now break its bottom of 3800. It may break it tomorrow. If it doesn’t for a day or two I feel it could be a different situation.
NDTV: So is the most fragile situation right now, for a couple of days. If we manage to tide over that we can hold our own?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Absolutely!
NDTV: Let me talk a little more about this global financial mess. You had spoken about this in Oct 07 that you fear America is in deep problems.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Absolutely, it still is.
NDTV: But it is getting worse.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: The Dow was 1000 in 1965, it was2000 in 1989. It doesn’t mean that if America has trouble, India is not going to prosper, to grow. We are on a different stage of economic development. And also India has got vast amounts of local markets and the platforms for the local money to come to the markets. I don’t see any reason why Americans outside are addressing the problem. Although I feel that is a big hangover or a big problem from what America has done in the past. I call that the hangover, when the American economy was growing on credit. Now they can take steps only to mitigate the hangover. America’s growth is going to be in some kind of depression for another two years. Despite that I’m not ready to believe that India will not grow. India will grow.
NDTV: So India doesn’t need to go to a rehab centre when America is trying to get over its addiction
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I don’t think so. Indians don’t indulge in those kinds of excesses. It has a different kind of economic growth cycle. Also the exposure of Indian equity to the world is very, very low, to India and to the world in general. So there is a lot of money to come in the Indian markets. And there is a lot of liquidity in the world, don’t forget.
NDTV: But you are bringing in a contrary here, because the world is saying that liquidity is over and whatever there is will disappear shortly. So where is the liquidity coming from, with Lehman gone, Merrill Lynch gone. There are problems with other names. I won’t go into names.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: But I suppose America’s market capitalization is $8-9 trillion. What’s India’s? One trillion? There is so much local money to come. Look at the local savings; I personally feel if India’s economic growth is 8-9 per cent in the next 2-3 years, I see 40-50 billion local money coming in the market every year.
NDTV: But do you think India’s economic growth can be 8-9 per cent, because even that has become a problem these days, with high interest rates and high inflation.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Now I feel that inflation is peak.
NDTV: So there will be no increase in interest rates?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I feel so. The world is going into an era where its not worried about inflation, its worried about growth. Indonesia cut two days back. Central banks worldwide are easing. I feel the commodity bull market is temporarily over and I think it’s not commodity led inflation. In most countries the challenge is not inflation but growth. There are already negative inflation figures in England and America.
NDTV: So do you feel the problem of this lagged effect on growth will not happen?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: The problem is coming to a climax and markets recognize things in advance. Inflation is peaked and we’ll going down much faster than people are imagining, in my opinion. I reserve the right to be wrong. There is no case for increase in inflation rates. It’s not demand-led inflation it’s a commodity-led inflation. And commodity prices can change substantially. That correction in commodity prices has still to be reflected in our deflation figures. And the government is not worried about food. Nobody is borrowing money and eating food. Secondly look at the Consumer Price Index, its 400-500- basis points lower than Wholesale Price Index. I’m quite hopeful and optimistic that Inflation has peaked in India, Interest rates have peaked, they will come down. And don’t forget that what are the benefits of liberalization is that we have made a structural trend change in inflation. During the period up to 2000 inflation was 8-9 per cent, then between 2002-2007 inflation was 5-6 per cent. That was structural change not just trend change. So if the commodity cycle does not disturb India, I don’t see inflation higher than 5-6 per cent
NDTV: I want to talk about interest rates, even if they peak, can’t they come down quickly? Normally they don’t go up quickly this time they have perhaps.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA:I think the world scenario will force the government to reduce interest rates.
NDTV: How much? Substantially lower?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I don’t know. I can predict that. That may happen in 6-9 months, I’m not saying it will happen tomorrow. The markets can smell it much earlier,
NDTV: Are you smelling some of it?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I am.
NDTV: Lets talk about crude and its correlation. I think I’ve been asking this endlessly ever since crude has been going up. Where are you in that take of, ‘crude comes down, India goes up’?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I think I would put crude bet $80-$100 a barrel.
NDTV: And we can live with that?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Yes we can live with that. And also India is going to get this gas and this oil. It will save India 50 billion $ a year..
NDTV: But somewhere the emphasis of gas vs oil is not being discussed.
I read in a report that it is as much as 35 per cent of our fuel consumption by 2012.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: That’s huge, 35per cent means that $40-$50 billion worth fuel that we were importing will be left in India. It’s important.
NDTV: So with that you will also play gas-based stories. Because there are huge benefits despite the pricing problems.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Yes I already have a shareholding in a company that has a good gas field. If there are good opportunities I will invest.
NDTV: Back to the global financial crisis. I want to know how does it affect the Indian Companies? You have news that ICICI has already admitted that they had some exposure to Lehman bonds, some 4per cent is the kind of exposure they have with the global I-banks. How much more bad new is there in the system?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I will consider two aspects there. As far as banking system is concerned, it has the lowest exposure of any banking system of any size to the world global crisis. Except ICICI bank I don’t think any other bank has any other meaningful exposure. If SBI has a half-basis points exposure, how does that matter? So I don’t think India is affected. Yes it is temporarily affected by the sentiment against the emerging money markets. I personally feel that could be bad news in the short term. But in the medium and the long term, I feel that you will narrow down where there is crisis, the number of asset classes, and the countries that people don’t like to invest. Once people get over this crisis and they take a breath and when they find India outperforming, they will investigate India. We’ll find far more investors in India than anywhere else. So I feel that the result of this crisis would be that India will attract far more money. It’s my opinion. I reserve the right to be wrong.
NDTV: But somewhere everyone avoids markets like India, that is a high beta emerging market. When your house is collapsing why would you not look to resolving that first.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Everybody’s house in America is not collapsing. If India is growing faster, there is a good trading system, the currency is stable, why would people not invest in India.?
NDTV: The currency is also not looking stable.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I think I’m bullish on the rupee against the dollar. I would invest in the dollar with a right mind.
NDTV: But why only dollar or rupee? You can invest in Yen. You can invest in the Swiss frank.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: There are all kinds of people who would like to invest in different assets. How much money does India need a year. Not more than $10-20 billion. It cannot absorb more than that. What money is that? It’s nothing.
NDTV: So that will come from significant global investors?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I don’t know from where, global or Indian. If the Indian economy performs well, the money will come from Timbaktu, but it will come.
NDTV: So why are the FIIs not doing so?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Ask them. They are the biggest buyers at 6000-6100. Ask them why they are not buying. They bought Brazil in June. Did you ask them why they are buying? You think they are the biggest buyers? That doesn’t mean that they are the best performers and I have to follow them.
NDTV: When will you buy this market?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I don’t discuss my personal traits. I have my life invested in this market. I have 98 per cent of my life invested here. All my other assets would make up just 2 per cent.
NDTV: So you don’t look at getting out of equity and diversifying your risk.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I see a far bigger bull market, the mother of bull markets in another 4-5 years. I’ll exit at that time.
NDTV: You had commented about the previous bull markets and the previous bubble-burst, and the PE at those times was significantly different from the PE at 21000. You said it was 62 in 1992 and we are trading at 21-times more now. Do you feel that this time the correction was not justified to that extent was there no bubble-burst?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: No the correction was justified, that is why I was cautious. First of all the PEs were extended, the kind of scripts were given were of absolutely of low quality. If you look at the attempts of issues and the valuation issues that were coming and the manner in which the people were wrapping up those issues, I think correction is inevitable or a fall is inevitable.
NDTV: Usually people get in at times when the market is driving. For them the fear has come quite rapidly?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Well there are only two emotions that drive us, fear and greed. You must balance both well to do well in the markets.
NDTV:Ok. Right now you are not even looking at diversifying. There are not enough asset classes to choose from?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: No, I’m investing in all kinds of sectors.
NDTV: What sectors?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Pharma, security, BPOs, infrastructure, restaurants, schools, hospitals, internet, stock marketing and capital broking, biofuel companies.
NDTV: These are budding India stories?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Not budding. They are not large companies. I don’t invest large amounts. They are doing reasonably well.
NDTV: If you look at your portfolio that is openly disclosed at least where there is more than one per cent, it is a big diversified mix. I know Titan is the largest, but you have got lots of other retail, you’ve got Provoke, Pantaloons, Metro Shoes, Infotech, Geometric software, construction. I want to know how do you figure out, how do you balance your portfolio? Every body talks of weightage on particular sectors.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I just look at the entry price and I look at the terminal price at which I could sell. In between, I don’t look at any thing else. Yes, I see that the performance I envisage in a company is on track. I don’t allocate money to sectors, I don’t do analysis that ‘banking is going up, sell these investments. See, as Mr. Buffet has said there are few good dishes that you can take in life. So stick to them and don’t act oversmart. Don’t ‘Buy this, sell that’.
NDTV: But Mr. Buffet sticks to very safe businesses, but you stick to emerging business?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: So, I’m not trying to imitate him or be like him. I learn a lot from him but that doesn’t mean I’m going to copy him.
NDTV: What about your peers. What is the sense that you get from the trading community? You must be getting a signal at least that every body is shaken.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Yes, they are shaken. I think that there is far more confidence in India about the Indians, than the foreigners rightly saying. Peers are shaken but still there is faith. And I think there is reason to have faith.
NDTV: People are also calling this crisis a once in a century disaster. I’m referring to the 1930’s disaster. Do you get that feeling since we are not trading in the 30’s?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Today you have a far more active and proactive world. !930 was the first experience. I think there are reasons to drop some kinds of parallels in excesses of 1929 and 2006. But the world has reacted much faster in America and collected itself much faster and at that moment America was far more a part of the World. I don’t think that we will have a deep slowdown in the western world, not something like the 1930. but the biggest thing is that there should not be a lack of confidence. There is still confidence in America, that they’ll correct the wrong. And America as a society has evolved, it is the most competitive cutting-edge society, despite what has happened. There are deep leverages and excesses and there will be a slowdown, but not a situation like 1930.
NDTV: But there’ll be a new global financial order, there be a consortium of banks coming together, as stand alone I-banks will not survive?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I think it’s too early to say what will be the order, lets first make the base. We will know after a year and half or two years. Let’s not speculate.
NDTV: After we hit the bottom, whenever we hit that, how much time would it take to move up?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I think we have already hit the bottom last time at 3700 on the Nifty. I don’t rule it but feel so, we have made the bottom. There’s no mathematical formula to calculate the time. It is difficult to say that. The market will have to make a range and trade for a year or so. It will have to make a base and then the real move will begin.
NDTV: In that range, there will also be a lot of stocks which would fare better than average?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Yes, absolutely.
NDTV: And most of them would be large caps index related stocks ?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Difficult to say.
NDTV: But that is the common philosophy?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: What is common is not generally done.
NDTV: But will there also be stocks that are beaten down the maximum. The real estate is beaten, financials have been battered.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Financials have already come back. State bank is always 50-55 per cent up from the bottom. I think the sectors which are worst beaten up will participate in the next bull market.
NDTV: The staples, the defensives?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Absolutely. I’m talking about the range. We cannot generalize all this.
NDTV: Ok. When you talk to companies do they come up with fears saying that biz is sig slowed down, we cannot generate capitals, and projects are on hold.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I don’t think that is happening. The companies that are over-ambitious, those that try to run even before they can walk, they have such problems. Companies that are well-capitalised don’t face this. Even if the projects are on hold and promoters offer lesser valuation, they agree.
NDTV: When you said that you are 98 per cent invested in equity, what is the 2 per cent.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I have a house. I have some investments in real estate.
NDTV: Are you exposing yourself to safe haven investments such as gold?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: No, 2 per cent is compulsive assets. I believe only in equity. Even if I invest one per cent else where, what difference would it make to my balance sheet. I’m confident even in the worst situation, even if Nifty is at 1500, the remaining will be enough for me.
NDTV: Let’s talk about ‘Mother of all bull runs’. How will it trigger your mind?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: The internal growth will be surpassing double digits.
NDTV: And on our own structural fundamentals this is just a cyclical correction?
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: Absolutely.
NDTV: In the new run, you think new highs of what kind can be made, approximately, even a PE value.
RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA: I think not less than 25 times PE value next bullrun. I don’t know when, could be 5-yrs or so. I’m confident of basic stability and growth prospects of this country and there is a vast under exposure of local Indians to equity and we have the platforms and we are introducing mechanisms to expose them. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: vishmitt
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2008 at 4:50pm
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"He says - Yes I already have a shareholding in a company that has a good gas field."
Which company is this?
Regards
Vishal M
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Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2008 at 4:51pm
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HOEC ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2008 at 4:53pm
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Looking at how the markets behaved today on the back of demoralizing news worldwide and the tanking of most asian markets, it might be premature, but we could be seeing the bull back again!!! Letz hope the bull is back with all teeth clenched at this time. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: kumardiwesh
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2008 at 11:14pm
Give the market some time. We'll have a bull run definitely. Let the bear phase last. Let us pick some good scrips. Aaj ka kaam kal ho, aur kal ka kaam parson Itni jaldi kya hai bachcha, jeena hai jab barson ------------- "History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2008 at 5:54pm
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No offence to you Kumar diwesh but wouldn't it be better if we don't rely on the market to drag our picks? Why wait for the market when we can see high-growth companies like Nagarjuna Constructions selling at 12 PE, a strong franchisee and near monopoly like Crisil selling at 20 PE, and a strong cyclical like Tata Steel selling at 6.5 PE? Some stocks (high growth in particular) are selling at obscenely low valuations and are screaming value to even the lay observer. They may need a look on a case by case basis mainly due to their low PEs alone at present. Strong managements are in place and good earnings potential is seen ahead, especially with stocks like Nagarjuna and Crisil. Nobody ever gets the exact bottom or the exact top right but on a case by case basis, supported by valuations, we can make good calls.------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2008 at 9:23pm
| Thanks a ton for posting this article |
Posted By: rashmi
Date Posted: 01/Oct/2008 at 10:19pm
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what is the learning form rkj"s portfolio. that we should go after mid cap stocks ? blindly follwing the stocks will not be profitable. we have to find the jems which are available in this crash time at mouth watering level. share some stoks with logic ? |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 7:08am
Never blindly follow another's portfolio however great he may be .Use it as a starting point to get knowledge of potential great stocks but do your homework thouroughly before investing . Even the great investors have made mistakes and blunders and you must not end up owning such stocks . ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 8:00am
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Very relevant observation. Rj has a history of making money from only 50% of the stocks that he owes so if you have to copy buy the entire portfolio in the disclosed weightage.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 8:42am
Even that will solve only part of our problems. His acquisition price and ours (if we buy today) will be different. |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 9:40am
In fact RJ himself has said that many of his stocks are risky as they are midcaps and he has invested with the hope that they are able to achieve the scale and their vision in the days to come .Those stocks that have achieved it( like Pantaloon,Titan etc ) have got him wealth and those stocks that have not achieved the scale are lagging behind at least as of now(eg.Midday,Aptech etc ) . So better to do one's own homework before investing in a particular stock .As Basantji said for a person like RJ he can affrod to have even 50% failures as his 50% success more than compensate for that but for retail investors like us we cant avoid such risks . Also we must remember that there are more than 5000 listed stocks in BSE /NSE Combined and all we need is 3-5 good stocks among them to create wealth in long term . ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 9:58am
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One can make a lot of money by getting 50% of his picks right the only caveat is that he should not book profits when he has got it right oirrespective of whether he cuts his losses or not.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Oct/2008 at 11:26am
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More than copying his portfolio, how would one get his emotional temperament? This is what RJ said in an interview with NDTV last week:
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Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 1:06pm
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While one can nitpick on individual calls on RJ's portfolio has broad market calls has been amazingly prescient. I mean the guy was talking about a correcting in Sep. His broad directional statements right now are: 1. Correction will not only be deep but long too. (will test one's conviction as he calls it) 2. Market will become extra pessimistic going forward just like it was very optimistic. 3. Stocks which did not participate in the last bull run will be the first to boom in the next bull run. Stocks which soard in this bull run will participate later. 4. A big bull market awaits India as India will continue to grow and money will come in.I understand we are all long term investors but it will do us no harm to know what RJ is thinking. If nothing else it will help set the right expectations.
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Posted By: rashmi
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 1:36pm
| thank y' subbu for your opinion. |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 5:26pm
Pharma companies are also sitting on huge opportunities in the form of generics or biogenerics which are a huge potential goldmine. This is because developed countries around the world (particulary those reeling in recession/slowdown) are keen on bringing their healthcare (medicare/medicaid) costs down and China and India are emerging as cheap providers of formulations, generics, and/or APIs - not to mention the contract research and contract manufacturing opportunity that is still alive and thriving. Some big companies like GM have even blamed their rising employee health insurance costs to the dent in profitability they have suffered, not sure how far this is true though. Insurance companies in USA are giving incentives to doctors who prescribe generics.
So, the tide has turned in favor of the generic companies, the once much maligned copycats are now the saviors and crusaders against big Pharma. All this points to one thing and one thing only, that those Indian pharma companies earning a bulk of their revenues from overseas markets (including Latin America, Japan, and Africa) are going to go berserk in the next bull run. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 6:49pm
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Thanks for the perspective. Really appreciate that you did not just giving a sectoral rotation view but backed it up with earnings logic. (unlike some hotshot bankers who were saying banking is going to be hot a few months back by some sectoral rotation logic)
Also, while pharma did not participate in the bull run they aren't cheap either. So earnings velocity needs to improve tremendously from here.
So which is the biogeneric opportunity are you looking at? My understanding is that biogenerics is a 2011 story.
RJ has invested in Zenotech. (now acquired by Ranbaxy) But RJ's investment seems like VC investment to me at this point...i mean he is backing a solid management with a good and scalable story.
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Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 10:18pm
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Not all Pharma companies are costly Subu76. I have an investment in Lupin since it was at 440 levels and then again at 680 and the last tranche at 721. With last year's EPS at 50 and an almost guaranteed EPS of at least 60 bucks a share this year, it is trading at just around 13 PE whereas the Nifty is currently tranding at 17PE despite the correction. I feel even though the stock has rallied from 400 level, it is still cheap vis-a-vis the index. I love the management strategy and was actually led to this company by a very good article in Forbes. Lupin has devoted itself to exploiting the small niches in the pharma industry often ignored by the big guns and rarely if ever enters the "hot" subcategories in the pharma game. The reason why I am giving the example of Lupin is that there are cheap pharma stocks available if one cares to look at a little closely. With respect to the index PE, a lot of pharma stocks are still cheap with the exception of a few. Here is the link for the Lupin article in Forbes.
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/1213/168.html - http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2004/1213/168.html
Lupin shuns the high visibility segments in the pharma industry like lifestyle, statins, and devotes itself to neurology, psychiatry, anti-TB, psoriasis, anti-allergens, cefs, and prils and other unglamours segments which automatically gives entry barriers and margin protection. Since the markets for these are not exactly huge, large generic companies shun these kinds of products.
Besides, Lupin is one of the few companies in India to have an FDA approved injectables plants. Injectables are difficult to manufacture than tablets and have high entry barriers even in their generic forms. They have their own brand Suprax in the US which sells well especially during the allergy season. This was a brand that they acquired from Fujisawa and has wide recognition by physicians in the US and has an ever-increasing prescription base.
Besides all these, I strongly believed in Desh Bandhu Gupta (DBG) and believe also that though DBG might have stepped down, Lupin is still under the able leadership of his daughter Vinita Gupta Sharma. The exciting part of recent times is Lupin is planning a foray into biogenerics too, another niche with high entry barriers and adequate margins despite genericization.
Regarding Zenotech, this is also a company that I have invested in since a long time. The promoter Jayaram Chigurupathi looks like just the kind of person who has both technical and financial skills and is capable of doing big things. So far, we have seen only the promise. RJ's investment in Zenotech is much older. He must have a 10 plus year horizon for Zenotech. Research-based companies do require a decade long vision at least by VCs and angel investors.
That said, there are problems galore in this investment. First of all, it is a tremendously research-oriented company and has to spend huge sums on R and D. Secondly, its reporting standards are way below par, and they still haven't published the shareholding patterns of the last 2 quarters in the BSE website. They are pretty lax about reporting shareholding patterns and even results. They skip a few quarters and suddenly "bam" they update everything one fine day. Thirdly, they are perpetually short of cash and had to sell majority stake to Ranbaxy to raise money to fund their R and D and repay their old debts. Their annual report also reveals that they have defaulted some money with a few banks. Lastly, the regulation to allow biosimilar drugs is till pending in US which is the largest market. The current biotech majors like Amgen and Genentech are slowly migrating their customers into once-a-week pegylated versions of their drugs. Thus even if regulation is passed, the original innovator biotech market would have moved one step ahead of the generics. The only ray of hope is that Europe and recently Malaysia have allowed biosimilars.
The things that are in favor of Zenotech are that the presence of a step-father like Ranbaxy which brings with it not only R&D and financial strength but also a strong marketing and distribution network in multiple geographies. This will provide Zenotech the required reach and scale without having to invest in a sales force and having to conduct expensive marketing campaigns aimed at physicians. Ranbaxy was worried that it would reduced to a mere distributor of Zenotech's products if it had only helped Zenotech financially and hence demanded a majority stake in exchange for a rich valuation per share. According to Malvinder Singh, Zenotech was being richly valued at 160 bucks a share in Ranbaxy's open offer because of its rich pipeline of products. This apart, this company has patchy earnings and is barely surviving by the skin of its teeth selling its products and also some anesthesia products in unregulated markets of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We can only hope things improve and Zenotech delivers on its promise.
Having said this, the market for the products Zenotech makes is so big and so fast-growing, it makes it worthwhile holding on to this wobbly story. This is because, things are slowly starting to move in favor of biosimilars or "follow-on biologics" of late. If and when Zenotech succeeds, the rewards can be humungous and one needs to invest more like a VC rather than a value investor in this kind of story as it has the safety of a lottery ticket.
 This is because despite holding for more than a decade, this stock might not deliver any returns at all since the outcomes of research are not always predictable and generic biotech firms will be very strictly regulated which could play havoc with their future prospects.I guess in stocks and romance, one must be willing to get hurt before committing
 PS: The best biotech companies in India are either private or taken over. Intas is private and Concorde was taken over by Matrix. The only listed opportunity with a visionary entrepreneur who has both financial and technical skills is Zenotech. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2008 at 10:27pm
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take a look at bilcare this co helps mnc pharma co to cut costs.good management. roe 20%, pe 14, has been growing at 40%. bilcare has a separate thread on ted ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2008 at 6:42pm
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Thanks for the detailed reply. I went through the Zenotech annual report twice but it continues to be Greek to me. Let me try Bilcare now to see if that one is any better. |
Posted By: pankaj72
Date Posted: 12/Oct/2008 at 6:42pm
| Pl.comment on zen technologies |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2008 at 9:24pm
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Hi Pankaj: Zen Technologies is an expert at making simulators for the army, civilian and paramilitary forces. It was an erstwhile Mankekar investment. The promoters of Zen are good businessmen who spotted an opportunity for simulators at a time when lot of people in India did not know what it was or how to spell it. The promoters discovered that the army had a problem of injuries to recruits, shortage of ammunition, and scarcity of good quality shooting ranges in India. To cater to this, they developed simulators which reproduce real-life combat-like situations. They had lot of difficulty earlier marketing their products but later soon developed a knack for it after giving live demonstrations. It seems their main asset is a library of dynamic content which can be programmed into any simulator and can be made to respond in many languages. Indian paramilitary forces are a big customer right now, and because of payment problems associated with government contracts, this company usually has very lumpy earnings. They usually make most of their EPS in the last quarter. This might soon change as they plan to take their business model overseas and will be entering middle east, a place which is very keen on modernizing its armed forces. The overseas contracts might prove helpful in reducing earnings lumpiness.Another drawback of this company is the secrecy associated with contracts of armed forces. Hence, the company might not be able to report openly any order or any procurement. That is why they have to indeed report in vague terms as to a certain "entity" giving them a certain repeat order for a certain approximate sum. All this makes it difficult to track, until March, how the company is actually faring. This is a common problem with companies who are suppliers for the defence sector.
The things that Zen has going for it is a super-niche business model and high margins in the electronics/hardware industry, an industry notorious for wafer-thin margins as any electronic product designed can be cheaply copied in Taiwan. The intellectual property it has in the form of a dynamic library itself is quite valuable and companies are willing to pay for the content.
This apart, Zen also designs simulators to make road travel safer and provides them to RTOs. This simulates the driving of a vehicle in all terrains and at all conditions making drivers better trained and/or driving licences given to eligible candidates only.
In order to explain the model of Zen a little better, I would like to direct you to an article I found in the net
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2007/08/01/100138821/index.htm - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2007/08/01/100138821/index.htm
The thing that has caught the fancy of marketmen is that Rakesh Jhunjhunwala recently acquired warrants and even converted them into shares. Jhunjhunwala has entered this company at the right time I feel when the business model is about to mature and the promoters want to take the game to the next level, no matter how video game-like this statement sounds  ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2008 at 10:51pm
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RJ is investing in Companies that are involved in the same business that Buffett has invested in USA and world over . Eg: Zen Technologies is a company that is involved in Defence Training Simulators and Buffett has invested in a Company that is involved in Flight Training Simulators . Buffett has invested in ISCAR an Isareli Machine cutting tool business and RJ has invested in Rishi Lazer that is involved in a similar business in India . Of course Buffett has invested in those that have well matured but RJ is investing in those that are yet to mature and hence there is a risk involved to his investments but if they succeed he will get mind boggling returns through the pure power of compounding . Of course he must be having a time frame of more than 10 years for these business to mature and become leaders in their own way in India . ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: dkarthick
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2008 at 11:35am
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http://www.coolavenues.com/bschools/081001/sjmsom-avenues-1.php - SJMSOM-IIT Bombay to Organize Annual International Business Some of the luminaries participating in Avenues '08 include Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Investor & Partner, RARE Enterprises,Mrs. Vinita Bali, Managing Director, Britannia Industries,etc http://www.som.iitb.ac.in/events/2008/avenues08/ |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2008 at 7:29pm
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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala adds 150000 shares of Geometric Ltd according to the September shareholding pattern filed in the BSE website. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 26/Oct/2008 at 11:22pm
I have compiled the details for RJ's top 10 Holdings
He seems to have added Praj & Nagarjuna and pared Titan, Aptech & Karur Vysya ------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2008 at 10:55am
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What is his views on private sector banking and financial services stocks. Looks like he is not invested any of them.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: ThinkDifferent
Date Posted: 28/Oct/2008 at 12:55pm
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I am sure that we are going to hear soon that RJ has loaded stocks
during this correction using borrowed money. He had said that he is
fully invested with his money in earlier interviews.
------------- I am an Amateur in Stocks. |
Posted By: smart_prof
Date Posted: 30/Oct/2008 at 3:12pm
Pl correct he has 10532253 shares in the name of his pvt ltd co .....so no change there |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 30/Oct/2008 at 4:13pm
| this is all gibberish with plenty of code showing up. needs to be re-posted correctly |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 30/Oct/2008 at 4:22pm
The correct version is a few posts earlier by Vijay. ------------- |
Posted By: smart_prof
Date Posted: 30/Oct/2008 at 5:38pm
No corredct as he hold 1.03 crore shares in a pvt ltd co ....... |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 30/Oct/2008 at 6:55pm
No corredct as he hold 1.03 crore shares in a pvt ltd co .......[/QUOTE] I am not aware of RJ's Pvt. Ltd. Company. Can you please throw some light on this Please?
My Complilation incudes Rakesh & Rekha Jhunjhunwala as individuals.
------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 06/Nov/2008 at 5:59pm
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RJ has entered Rallis India. Looks like a bet on the second green revolution happening ASAP due to soaring food prices. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 06/Nov/2008 at 6:05pm
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RJ has also added 377500 shares of Hindustan Oil Exploration and added 700000 shares of Aptech both in the month of October. ------------- When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: goodsports4
Date Posted: 11/Nov/2008 at 5:44pm
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Basantji
please post us october month portfolio of rakesh jhunjhunwala.or any news in which he intrested to buy.
some market whisper is he is active on punj lloyed
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Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 11/Nov/2008 at 11:51pm
| Why look at market whispers if you want to buy Punj Lloyd? Its good scrip and you could buy if someone is shorting it furiously these days! |
Posted By: goodsports4
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2008 at 6:17pm
| basant ji rj is good stock chooser.investor like me have no guts to select right stock at right time and right price. market is currently downtrend and we loose everyday my portfolio value. so we try to enter those stock in which leader make entry. thanks |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 21/Nov/2008 at 7:03pm
Has RJ sold out Nagarjuna Construction.......
------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Nov/2008 at 7:18pm
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he owes more then 1.5 crore shares this could be a sale to meet some temporary fund commitements!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vijaygawde
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2008 at 12:47pm
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http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/mkts-should-have-functioned-today-rakesh-jhunjhunwala/368345 - Mkts should have functioned today: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video. Q: Is it the right thing to do to shut the markets in the light of what’s happened?
A: In the circumstances, you couldn’t function properly. So, given the choice it would have been better if it had been open. (Also read: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/business/india-inc-condemns-mumbai-terror-attack/368353 - India Inc condemns to Mumbai terror attack ) Q: Do you think so?
Q: We have been getting several calls through the day about what the situation is and what is happening. Do you sense that this time around there is a more heightened sense of panic among traders, investors, and brokers?
A: I don’t have any sense of panic. I saw this during the 1993 blast. I was myself in the BSE then. As a nation, a killing of more than 100 people is not going to affect this country in any way. Having said that, we have to take steps to have better security and at least hang those people who attacked our Parliament. (Also read: http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/terror-attacksmumbai-raamdeo-agrawal-others-react/368352 - Terror attacks in Mumbai: Raamdeo Agrawal, others react ) As an Indian, I hang my head in shame that the Supreme Court has convicted the person who has attacked Parliament. But in this country, we don’t hang that person. We cannot take a lenient attitude toward terrorism. Having said that, I don’t think there is going to be any panic. If there is panic, it is going to be an opportunity to buy.
Q: Were you around that area last night?
A: I was in my office 10.15 pm yesteyday and couldn't get out, so ended up staying in office the entire night. It was happening next to my office and I could hear all the shooting. I could hear the blasts and the sound. But as a nation, we got to get together and face this. The first thing is that we have to show no sign of panic. So let us send a message to the terrorists that do what you may but as a nation, we are not going to be affected. That is the best way to counter terrorism. If you allow them to affect us, they are successful. Do you think trade in Q: In the very near term, any concerns on ripple affects over the next few days because expiry has been postponed to tomorrow? Do you expect markets to be a bit uncertain while this whole process is underway? ------------- Diversification is protection against ignorance, it makes little sense for those who know what they’re doing. |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 07/Dec/2008 at 10:22am
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as Robert Hagstrom wrote in his book rather simplistically that the markets are 80% efficient. The imperfections of the 70's and 80's where george soros, jim rogers and warren buffett could exploit imperfections is limited in the present period. The Indian markets are similarly efficient than they were in the 80's and 90's.
All it means is "get rich quick" schemes devised by brokerages and all nutty putty strategies can be as good as "get poor quick".
Just buy a stock and sit on your ass.............that's all we could do now. leverages, futures and options are a cut-throat business. people survive on paisas.
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