RBI bars exotic forex products!!!
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Economy, Markets and commodities
Forum Name: Indian Economy - Powering Ahead!
Forum Discription: Talk about various facets of the Indian economy, it could relate to GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, disinvestments.Is India at the crux of becoming an economic SUPERPOWER?
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1573
Printed Date: 04/May/2025 at 8:33pm
Topic: RBI bars exotic forex products!!!
Posted By: BubbleVision
Subject: RBI bars exotic forex products!!!
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 9:34am
http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=2&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=312903&chkFlg= - RBI bars exotic forex products
Anita Bhoir / Mumbai February 07, 2008 |
|
|
|
Move follows complaints by companies; total losses estimated at over Rs 1,000 cr. |
|
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stopped banks from selling exotic foreign exchange derivatives amid a flood of complaints by companies hurt by large losses. |
|
The central bank has told banks that they should sell only vanilla rupee-dollar derivative products from now on and that too only for hedging corporate foreign currency exposures, not for trading. |
|
The regulator's Foreign Exchange Department recently pulled up representatives of banks against whom the RBI had received complaints for selling their clients exotic products when they were supposed to offer plain vanilla products. |
|
Estimated losses suffered by companies that had opted for complex derivative products exceed Rs 1,000 crore. |
|
Exotic hedging structures involve the conversion of dollar receivables into the Swiss franc or Yen and taking a view on the movement of these currencies, which were considered stable about six months ago. |
|
The Yen has appreciated to 106.94 per dollar now from 121.72 at the beginning of July 2007, while the Swiss franc has risen to 1.09 per dollar from 1.22 per dollar. |
|
Companies with export receivables hedge foreign currency exposures against revenue losses in rupee terms as a result of adverse currency movements. Those with import requirements do it to protect themselves from an increase in import costs in rupee terms. |
|
The banking regulator has also set up an inspection team to scrutinise the transactions of select banks. The team has inspected one of the foreign banks active in the forex derivatives business and will be checking the books of about 10 private sector and foreign banks, sources said. |
|
Banks such as ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank, Citi, Deutche, Standard Chartered, HSBC and ABN Amro are active players in the derivatives business. |
|
Hexaware Technologies was the first to report a provisioning of $20 million to $25 million for losses on account of its hedging positions. |
|
Another small company, a Mumbai-based school stationery maker Sundaram Multi-pap, has filed a petition in the high court alleging that ICICI Bank had wrongly sold it forex derivatives. |
|
The appreciation of the Swiss franc led to ICICI Bank asking Sundaram to pay Rs 6 crore as margin money on the derivatives contract, significantly more than the profit of Rs 4.44 crore the company made in 2006-07. |
|
Sundaram Multi-pap is not alone. There are many other companies that have refused to acknowledge the terms of the derivatives contracts putting the entire blame on their chief financial officers. |
|
"Though the banks have adhered to the appropriateness of the policy while selling such products and have the consent of the boards of the companies concerned, the clients had not fully understood the deals,'' a banking source said. |
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 10:03am
It defies all logic of free market movement. Will the RBI ban such instruments in equity markets also? Is there any other country in the world that has banned such instruments this way?
It seems akin to a headmaster of the school shutting the school off because he cannot manage some errant students. Instead of getting into blanket bans the RBI should try and introduce stringent regulations.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 10:23am
True banning it isnt the solution ..on their part if the banks dont understand these complex products like curr swaps, intrest rate swaps etc its better they stay out till they get a hang of it.
------------- Warm REgards
Nitin Jagtap
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 10:29am
It is not the Banks who do not understand but the customers. Will this ban alos extend to people like Bubble vision who do this for a living. If not then it is good for Bubble but negative for the system.
Bubble do not take it otherwise but this is not how systems are expected to run. The present RBI governor is a tradionalist and he he is keeping up to his tradition.
This banning in fact removes all doubt about the private sector banks getting into this trap at least from now onwards but that is not what we are discussing.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 06/Feb/2008 at 11:48am
Bubble, will these moves affect your company's business in any way?
|
Posted By: snehaldani
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 12:38pm
Bubbleji, are you in forex derivative trading on marketing side or treasury side ? Are you working for a bank ?
Answer only if you feel comfortable. Otherwise, ignore these questions.
------------- Snehal P.Dani
|
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 12:45pm
With this ban, banks will loose loyal customers and their fee income will be hit to a small extent, i suppose.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
|
Posted By: snehaldani
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 12:49pm
The reaction of RBI also seems to endorse the belief that the concerned banks have taken adequate procedural steps to comply with the regulatory requirements.
The charge against the banks is not that they did not comply with the regulatory guidelines. The charge against the banks by the losing parties to the transactions is that they did not understand the transaction.
People come out with weird reasons to justify their actions when faced with a certain loss. The same set of losers never uttered this charge till the time they were able to earn treasury profits out of the same exotic products that they are not crying hoarse about.
The basic fact is in the egoistic belief : Profits mine and my intelligence. Losses due to you . It is like heads I win , tails you lose.
RBI , as a regulator, has taken the easy way out of the situation by banning the product instead of telling the concerned corporates to first understand the product before venturing in them. Remember, the corporates involved were not some uneducated , poor , rural , oppressed entities. They were , in all probability, involved in international trade or may be even involved in raising international capital through ADR/GDR. The complain of not having understood from such corporates is filmsy.
By banning the product, while respite may be had temporarily for fickle corporates, savvy corporates with international treasuries and willingness and ability to play the game on its own terms ( Likes of the house of Reliance, Birla, Tata, Adanis, Mittals ) will have a limitation on flexibility of operations for their large forex exposures spread out in multi currencies in multi countries and multi time zones with uneven maturity profiles on assets on one side, liabilites on other and between assets and liabilities as a whole on still other.
------------- Snehal P.Dani
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 1:41pm
Thanks for the concern guys, however I would like to confirm that I am NOT impacted any which way. We are from the "Buy side". This would impact the "sell side". Infact, we as a company are happy.
BTW, this is NOT yet confirmed, as I have NOT seen the RBI circular to this effect yet.
Snehal…I work in Research and NOT into marketing. btw, where are you working. Can you PM be with details?
I would give my opinion on RBI decision later on.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 3:03pm
NW18: FX mkt debates on RBI exotic derivatives ban news, seeks clarity NewsWire18, Thursday, Feb 7
By Prithvi Durai
MUMBAI - Leading treasurers today said they haven't received any
regulatory note or instruction from the Reserve Bank of India asking them to stop offering structured currency derivatives products.
But, taking note of a newspaper report that said RBI has asked banks to stop selling exotic derivatives, bankers said some banks could get pulled up by the central bank if such a ban has been enforced.
Business Standard newspaper today said RBI has stopped banks from
Selling exotic derivatives because companies complained to the central bank that banks instead of offering vanilla products, got into complex cross-currency derivatives.
These companies suffered huge losses because their currency bets went wrong, the report said without attributing to any named source. "We have not been given any circular from the RBI. However, everyone knows about these losses and people may be jittery about taking fresh derivative positions," said a dealer at a European bank. "There has been no impact on the (spot or forward dollar/rupee) market. But, the market is talking about it," said a dealer at a U.S. bank.
Several central bank officials NewsWire18 spoke to clarified that no circular has been issued to any bank on the matter. No official word on the newspaper report too was available. Senior treasury officials said the central bank prefers use of derivatives only for hedging currency exposures.
As per the comprehensive guidelines on derivatives issued in April last year, the RBI said "suitability and appropriateness" policies are of critical importance for banks that offer derivative products to companies.
According to RBI norms, it is imperative that banks offer derivative products in general, and structured products in particular, only to those companies who understand the nature of the risks inherent in these transactions.
RBI norms also say that products being offered by banks must be consistent with companies' internal policies as well as risk appetite. More recently, in its monetary policy review on Jan 29, the RBI advised banks to monitor their corporate clients' foreign exchange exposures.
According to RBI, the fundamental requirement for any company to undertake derivative transaction is the existence of an underlying exposure to foreign exchange risk whether on current or capital account.
Meanwhile, rupee was firm against dollar due to exporter dollar sales. At 1:15PM, the rupee was at 39.50, against 39.52 on Wednesday. The most-tracked one-year forward premium was at 1.41%, compared with 1.32% Wednesday.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: shetty
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 3:25pm
Considering the losses suffered by the traders in the recent stock market correction the RBI will next ban retail investors from the secondary market.
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 07/Feb/2008 at 9:13pm
I find it hard to believe that these corporates were unwilling participants.
We all know how much the corporates make banks comptete for their business.
Buyer Beware
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 11/Feb/2008 at 2:41pm
There is an article in ET which says "RBI is planning to bring in new risk disclosure norms for banks selling foreign exchange derivative products to corporates. This would enable the corporates to understand the risks which they may be exposed to when they enter into derivative transactions with banks.
Sources say that, legally speaking, corporates will have to bear the the losses suffered and may not be in a position to shift the blame to banks.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2008 at 4:37pm
Hmmm... this is interesting. A world of Corporate Mungerilals. Add to it dangers of derivatives & power of leveraging!
Read on excerpts from ET article...
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/SMEs_looking_to_come_clean_out_of_derivatives/articleshow/2778118.cms - Companies punt in derivatives to meet guidance
The staff in the derivatives sales team of a British Bank, which is a relatively recent entrant to India, was pulling the leg of a new recruit. The new recruit had been told that the CFO of an auto ancillary company loved new and fancy derivatives structures and was always willing to buy. The new recruit was told that selling a new derivative trade to this CFO would be the best way to open his sales career in this bank. Unfortunately, the CFO did not buy. “You have no future in this place,” joked the recruits’ colleagues, “you couldn’t even sell a structure to him”!
As events unfolded, this bank and indeed many other banks, including several new generation private banks and foreign banks with large presence in India, have realised that this joke is hiding a grim reality. An entire rash of small and medium-sized companies are sitting on loss-making positions on their balance sheets and are trying to figure out ways so that they come out of this clean and so are their bankers who sold them these instruments.
Even for the third quarter of FY08, corporate India is showing a slowdown in sales but other income component through forex is still high. “People in the forex market are calling it QSQT (quarter se quarter tak) effect,” says a forex consultant, making a cheeky allusion to Aamir Khan’s first film.
Under pressure to deliver numbers to meet profit promises (guidance), companies have been encouraging their CFOs to punt in the derivatives market.
One of the reasons that has prevented the entire episode from going public is that companies do not have to show notional losses (mark-to-market) regarding derivatives.
This has not happened in all cases though. In some cases CFOs have actually misled the board about their positions, for example, Hexaware.
Sundaram’s case shows why CFOs and banks ended up doing derivative trades that perhaps were not entirely appropriate. “We did not even have a formal banking relationship with ICICI. When we moved to a new premise, ICICI Bank was next door and so we opened an account there because of proximity. Soon they started making business visits and invited our CFO to a seminar where he was shown how these derivatives can make good money for the company…..” says Amrutlal Shah, director of Sundaram Multipaper.
ICICI Bank on its part says Sundaram knew exactly what it was doing.
Never take a bet you can’t afford to lose
Take one favourite derivative trade to understand why many companies had loans costing 10-12% per annum. These firms were beginning to hurt from the way interest costs were cutting into their profits. Many auto component and IT companies had revenues coming in dollars, and because with each passing money, a dollar was buying less rupees (rising rupee), the profits of these companies were declining. For instance, a company with Rs 200 crore in debt raised at 10% did not know how to reduce their interest costs.
Banks came to rescue of companies struggling with these problems. To reduce the interest outflow, they had to earn an interest “inflow”. The easiest and least risky way of doing this is to borrow $50 million in the currency of a country with low interest rate —mostly it was Swiss Franc where interest rates were 2%. An equivalent amount was lent in the currency of a country with higher interest rate, usually dollar where interest rate was 6%.
The interest rate differential (of 4% p.a.) multiplied by $50 million was the clear profit that reduced the actual interest impact. This nice profit can be wiped out if two chosen currencies change in relative value sharply. That is why the Swiss Franc (Swissie)/US dollar pair was chosen. Only once in the last 20 years had the Swiss Franc moved out of the band of 1.20-1.10 dollar per Franc.
Lure of lower cost protection
Having sold this “free lunch”, banks told corporates that they should buy a little insurance, just in case in there was an untoward movement in the Swiss Franc currency. To do this, companies paid a premium to buy the right to purchase Swissie if the currency appreciates. However, in order to reduce the cost, clients were offered the knock-out option. This options and the protection offered by them disappear if a certain event takes place. The event defined in some of these options was Swissie touching 1.09. Since at the time of entering, the option this looked extremely remote.
The same trade could have been created by combining a client buying a vanilla Swissie Call option (say at strike of 1.17) and selling a Swissie call option with strike of 1.17, but which only knocks in at 1.09. This cancelled the buy call option with a sell call option and exposed the client to a risk of appreciating Swissie, a completely unforeseen event.
According to RBI rules, an Indian corporate can never be the net receiver of premium in options. In simple words, corporates can buy “insurance” but they can’t sell “insurance” because the extent of financial loss can be very high in the latter. But if a corporate wants to make the entire trade a zero-cost one, it simply starts writing options to receive premiums that will nullify the cost of protection.
In spite of all the protection that companies tried to take, the rise of the Swissie was not taken into consideration. The Swissie moved by 10% over the last one year and is presently trading at 1.09 against the dollar.
The moment the Swissie breached the 1.10 level, the right to sell Swissie was cancelled and companies stopped receiving premiums. But the other leg of the “zero-cost structure” remained intact and premium payouts increased. With every rise in this currency, the mark to market losses for Indian corporates will increase. They can choose to cancel the contracts but then they will have to show the actual cash loss in their books, so many are sitting on the losses and waiting for the tide to turn. But in such volatile markets, banks do not want to take a chance and thus they are forcing the corporates for margin calls. That’s why you see all these disputed now coming out.
One CFO of an auto component company that makes tonnes of money on hedging, used to go around mocking his production plant heads, saying he could deliver more profit in one quarter than what the production chaps could deliver in a year.
The sad fact is that most boards do not even understand the complexities of these trades.
If this issue blows up, then most boards will have no option (pun unintended) but to appoint experts to examine derivative deals before they are signed. And banks will have to do some soul searching on whether their sold products to people who did not understand them.
|
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2008 at 5:29pm
One CFO of an auto component company that makes tonnes of money on hedging, used to go around mocking his production plant heads, saying he could deliver more profit in one quarter than what the production chaps could deliver in a year.
|
That explains slowdown of industrial activity in India. With top management glued to Forex trading screens, middle-management secretly doing day-trading on NSE/BSE ....kaam kaun karega??
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2008 at 7:51pm
Oh dear oh dear....We are not following only the West but East too....
The case surrounding former SembCorp Marine finance head, Wee Sing Guan, http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,267293,00.html? - whose trades with 11 banks could result in losses of US$303 million, has taken some startling twists.
Mr Wee now claims that all the foreign exchange trades he made for SembMarine's subsidiary Jurong Shipyard Pte Ltd were authorised by Jurong's board.
Jurong, in turn, says that the trades were unauthorised and that Mr Wee himself gave its representatives an account of what had happened in the lead-up to the losses. In an unsigned statement, it says, he spoke of how BNP Paribas, a bank that is now trying to recover some US$50.7 million that was lost on the currency trades, introduced him to 'really toxic exotic transactions'.
|
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 13/Feb/2008 at 8:05pm
Originally posted by kulman
Oh dear oh dear....We are not following only the West but East too....
The case surrounding former SembCorp Marine finance head, Wee Sing Guan, http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,267293,00.html? - million, has taken some startling twists.
Mr Wee now claims that all the foreign exchange trades he made for SembMarine's subsidiary Jurong Shipyard Pte Ltd were authorised by Jurong's board.
Jurong, in turn, says that the trades were unauthorised and that Mr Wee himself gave its representatives an account of what had happened in the lead-up to the losses. In an unsigned statement, it says, he spoke of how BNP Paribas, a bank that is now trying to recover some US$50.7 million that was lost on the currency trades, introduced him to 'really toxic exotic transactions'.
|
|
it wont be long before mungeris start to defend this action and coin a new term VALUE BASED EXOTIC OPTIONS.
------------- Warm REgards
Nitin Jagtap
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 3:35pm
Originally posted by basant
Met the fund manager of the (We are there) Fund yesterday at a post Budget meet. In the concerns for the market he listed down the potential treasury losses for corporates arising out of forex transactions; his argument was all these skeletons will fall from the cupboard if markets do not recover because like Hexaware all other companies would like to clean up their books.
|
Another BIG rather HUGE HUGE level coming up in Forex Market....
$-Yen 100 Level.
That $-Y level is 4 times more important than what $-CHF of 1.10 was.
$-Yen Last at 103.88.
I am hoping for a test of 99.00 this month, ahead of the year end Yen repatriation into Japan!!! The decline in USD-JPY could be lead by EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY Collapse on the LHS.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 3:56pm
Originally posted by BubbleVision
Originally posted by basant
Met the fund manager of the (We are there) Fund yesterday at a post Budget meet. In the concerns for the market he listed down the potential treasury losses for corporates arising out of forex transactions; his argument was all these skeletons will fall from the cupboard if markets do not recover because like Hexaware all other companies would like to clean up their books. |
Another BIG rather HUGE HUGE level coming up in Forex Market....
$-Yen 100 Level.
That $-Y level is 4 times more important than what $-CHF of 1.10 was.
$-Yen Last at 103.88.
I am hoping for a test of 99.00 this month, ahead of the year end Yen repatriation into Japan!!! The decline in USD-JPY could be lead by EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY Collapse on the LHS.
|
That should hit a few knockouts. What do you say. That Manager said that firing the CFO will not help commitements will have to be honoured for the bigger corporates and in the fear of actualising the losses these companies could actually be sitting in as the hole becomes darker and deeper.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 4:15pm
for corporate cfos heres a line from buffetts teachings-----do not do something that you dont understand------- alesson once again from this forex story.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
|
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 4:16pm
are we certain with the fact that the losses stay with the corporates and dont get transferred to the banks
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 4:28pm
Originally posted by basant
Originally posted by BubbleVision
Originally posted by basant
Met the fund manager of the (We are there) Fund yesterday at a post Budget meet. In the concerns for the market he listed down the potential treasury losses for corporates arising out of forex transactions; his argument was all these skeletons will fall from the cupboard if markets do not recover because like Hexaware all other companies would like to clean up their books. |
Another BIG rather HUGE HUGE level coming up in Forex Market....
$-Yen 100 Level.
That $-Y level is 4 times more important than what $-CHF of 1.10 was.
$-Yen Last at 103.88.
I am hoping for a test of 99.00 this month, ahead of the year end Yen repatriation into Japan!!! The decline in USD-JPY could be lead by EUR-JPY and AUD-JPY Collapse on the LHS. |
That should hit a few knockouts. What do you say. That Manager said that firing the CFO will not help commitements will have to be honoured for the bigger corporates and in the fear of actualising the losses these companies could actually be sitting in as the hole becomes darker and deeper.
|
BasantJi....It wont be Few Knockout's. There is a "Knock-Out City" below 100.00. I am really hoping for it sooner rather than later.
Firing the CFO is even worse, as the company would then be "Captain-less" ship, which would be sure to drown. The fear of Actualising losses exactly the same fear of a "Stop-Less" trader.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 4:28pm
No. One cannot rule out a spill over. The bigger companies will honour and a few smaller ones will default but there is just no way of knowing the extent of the problem.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 4:44pm
untill we see the q4 and q109 earnings and provided the banker is honest enough!
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Mar/2008 at 5:08pm
Originally posted by tigershark
for corporate cfos heres a line from buffetts teachings-----do not do something that you dont understand------- a lesson once again from this forex story. |
Unfortunately these guys do not read Buffett. They read stock prices and EPS and find ways of increasing both these variables. 
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 3:32am
|
Worse is yet to come in forex derivative losses |
Ranju Sarkar / Mumbai March 12, 2008 |
|
|
|
The $50 mn hit L&T has taken may just be the tip of the iceberg. |
|
The $50 million hit L&T took due to hedging losses in a subsidiary may just be the tip of the iceberg. |
|
Losses by Indian companies as a result of their exposure to the foreign exchange derivatives market may hog the headlines for next few quarters since many of the currency swaps are likely to mature after March, said foreign exchange experts. |
|
"This is a big thing brewing. The losses in some cases may be equal to a company’s profit for the whole year," said a senior executive with a Mumbai-based foreign exchange consultant, who did not want to be identified. |
|
For example, Hexaware reported a Rs 81-crore loss for the quarter ended December 2007 after the company took a hit of about Rs 103 crore on account of unauthorised forex derivative deals struck by a company official. |
|
The company had posted a net profit of Rs 110.07 crore in 2007 (the company follows a January to December financial year). |
|
"Corporate India’s exposure is large. Banks have sold these derivatives to both small and big companies. However, many of these positions are maturing after March, and so companies are not required to reveal their losses this fiscal. The losses will be reflected in Q1 and Q2 of next fiscal,’’ added the expert. |
|
Jamal Mecklai, CEO of Mecklai Financial, said he had estimated the losses to be $1billion (Rs 4,000 crore) though some others estimate it at $3 billion. "That is quite large. Today, I heard of a company that has an exposure of Rs 50 crore in forex derivatives on a topline of Rs 150 crore," he said |
|
The crisis is also expected to trigger plenty of litigation since corporations think banks have mis-sold them all kinds of derivatives. In one such case, a paper and stationary manufacturer Sundaram Multipaper has sued ICICI Bank for its losses on forex derivative products. |
|
"Many corporations have complained to the Reserve Bank of India, and you will have a lot of litigation. These are not just currency swaps. Banks have sold more exotic and complex structures to people who have not understood these trades," said another forex consultant who also requested anonymity. |
|
A V Rajwade, a Mumbai-based consultant on risk management, said margins in plain vanilla trading are nominal where prices are readily available on screen. |
|
"This is perhaps why banks have sold complex derivative products to companies. Some companies don't understand them; some are greedy," he said |
|
Many companies don't have the discipline in marking their assets to market or imposing a stop-loss on their trades. |
|
"Many of them do not understand the difference between hedging and reduction in cost or risk. This has led to a lot of problems in the market," Rajwade added. |
|
Mecklai said the problem lies India's "slow and backward" accounting standards. "In other countries, you have to provide mark-to-market losses. Here, you can carry them forward till 2011. The accounting standards have to be tightened. Today, a lot of companies and banks are in battle but you need two hands to clap." |
|
Almost all private banks—Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank— and even State Bank of India have sold these derivative structures, and can potentially be hit if companies do not pay. |
|
"Banks are worried that they may have to pay upfront if these cases get into litigation," said a forex consultant. |
|
The stock market may not be aware of the impending crisis and yet, banking stocks have come under selling pressure when everyone was hoping they would provide succour in a falling market. |
|
The BSE Bankex has shrunk 30 per cent from January 8, 2008, when the benchmark BSE Sensex touched a high 20,873.33, faster than the market that has lost 23 per cent of its market cap since then. |
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?bKeyFlag=BO&autono=316569 - Business Standard
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 9:55am
Dangers of derivatives ....
http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/12000404/Rs128-trillion-derivatives-on.html - Rs128 trillion derivatives on banks’ books
Indian banks and companies may have become more vulnerable to risks, especially those arising from innovative foreign exchange and interest rate hedges, over the past two years.
Banks operating in India had Rs127.86 trillion ($3.16 trillion) of derivatives on their books as on 31 December 2007, according to a statement tabled on Tuesday in the Rajya Sabha by the country’s finance minister P. Chidambaram. That number, which refers to the “outstanding notional principal amount of derivatives” according to the statement, was 291% higher than the corresponding number on 31 December 2005.
Foreign banks operating in India, as a group, accounted for an exposure of Rs98.91 trillion, a growth of 389% over the 2005 number. This number also translates into 77% of derivatives exposure among banks operating here. It is almost five times the bank credit in early March.
GROWING VULNERABILITY ( http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/12000404/1A2C87FB-6B7D-4ED2-B311-ED5109D2C3A3ArtVPF.pdf - Graphic )
A senior executive at a large private bank said that the growth in the exposure to derivatives signalled three trends: increasing globalization of the economy which makes companies hedge their foreign currency exposure; the willingness of companies to try new risk hedging tools; and the ability of foreign banks, which have experience in selling and managing such instruments, to scale up their derivatives business here. The executive, who did not wish to be identified, said that the exposure of banks to derivatives is largely on account of their clients’ exposure to foreign exchange risks. Banks do not have to bring in additional capital to scale up their derivatives business; their ability to lend, for instance, is usually curtailed by the amount of capital they have on their books. The banker said that this explained how foreign banks have been able to aggressively ramp up their derivatives business.
To be sure, the magnitude of the banks’ exposure to derivatives and the concept of derivatives itself should not be cause for concern. Over the past few years, derivatives have emerged as popular financial instruments that promise better returns or insulate companies from risks in global finance or both.
By itself, a number such as Rs127.86 trillion does not mean much. On the positive side, it reflects a growing maturity in the Indian market as appetite for sophisticated derivatives increases. But, some firms could well be buying such derivatives without understanding the risks involved. Derivatives include all manner of tools that allow companies to hedge their foreign currency exposure and interest rate risks. Forex hedges help companies that have significant cross-currency transactions to cope with exchange risks.
The data presented by the minister’s statement does not include or refer to exposure to equity derivatives or collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs.
The foreign exchange risks are likely to involve straight dollar-rupee (or rupee-dollar hedges) or more complex multi-currency hedges. Between April and now, the rupee has appreciated 6.16% against the dollar. Exporters typically hedge against an appreciation in the local currency against the one in which they bill.
The local arm of Citibank NA had an exposure to derivatives of Rs16.30 trillion at the end of December, the minister’s statement said, reflecting a 600% increase over two years. On that date, the bank had the largest derivatives exposure among all banks licensed to operate in India.
Among Indian banks, ICICI Bank had the largest exposure of Rs7.67 trillion. HDFC Bank had an exposure of Rs5.04 trillion and State Bank of India; Rs4.68 trillion.
Mint couldn’t immediately ascertain how the Rs127.86 trillion breaks up into exposure in forex hedges, and other derivative instruments. But, experts say that within hedges, the usual split between direct dollar-rupee hedges and more complex multi-currency ones would be around 85:15. One of these experts, who did not wish to be identified, also cautioned that while the overall exposure related to derivatives may seem large, the actual money changing hands would be much lower.
|
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Mar/2008 at 11:05am
Till nothing has been heard on Axis Bank . Is no news good news? Let's see!!!
From that report: This one is a stunner with a handful of branches foreign banks are far far ahead of the local ones. With less then 50 branches Citi is far ahead of the local banks.
http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/12000404/1A2C87FB-6B7D-4ED2-B311-ED5109D2C3A3ArtVPF.pdf - http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/12000404/1A2C87FB-6B7D-4ED2-B311-ED5109D2C3A3ArtVPF.pdf
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Mar/2008 at 9:36am
http://business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=10&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=317021 - RBI to overhaul norms for all foreign currency derivatives. The move could increase the provisioning requirements and restrict banks' exposure to credit derivatives and currency and interest rate structures. Sources familiar with the developments said the central bank has sought data from banks to assess their total exposure to foreign currency derivatives, both in the domestic and in the overseas markets. While exposures in the domestic market relates mainly to interest rate and currency options and swaps, international investment includes credit derivative structures like credit-linked notes based on foreign currency loans and bonds raised by Indian companies abroad. In addition, RBI has also asked banks to explain the procedure adopted for "marking to market" the portfolio for valuation before the end of the financial year 2007-08. Based on the exercise, the banking regulator is likely to limit the level of bank exposure to forex derivatives of any kind. It may also specify stringent risk management norms for banks to enter into derivatives purely for trading or speculative purposes. If RBI goes ahead with the move, the cap would be akin to the ceiling on equity market exposure. RBI has asked banks to limit their capital market exposure to 40 per cent of their net worth, with direct exposure limited to 20 per cent. In its inspection of the banks, RBI has found that most of the banks have entered into derivatives as speculative transactions and not purely for hedging the existing credit or investment portfolio. As part of the proposed valuation norms, RBI could also ask banks to mark to market the derivative portfolio maintained in the held-to-maturity (HTM) category. The move would bring Indian norms at par with international best practices, said a source. Globally, heavy notional losses are pared by shifting the investment from HTM to available for sale (AFS). In the present round of turbulence in the financial markets, most global giants have had to write down the value of their investment due to price fluctuations, most of which is notional. At present, banks are putting derivatives in the "held to maturity" category since these are not traded. As per the current valuation norms, any instrument which is not traded is put into HTM category and this need not be valued. Market-based valuation and provision for losses is only done for portfolio under "available for sale" category, which is actively traded by banks. While gains are notional in the marked-to-market exercise, losses have to be provided for. At present, sources said, most banks did not have a model or valuation of credit derivatives since there was no market or instrument in India. As a result, there was a need for uniform valuation norms for derivative instruments which, at present, varies across banks. Sources said RBI may also ask the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India to work our separate accounting standards for valuation of credit derivatives. At present, accounting for interest rate and currency derivatives are covered under the new accounting standard – AS 30 and AS 31. Credit derivative exposure and losses on such investment is a new phenomenon for the Indian banks as a fallout of the sub-prime crisis globally. In the domestic market, most of the investment in forex derivatives has turned into notional losses because of the adverse movement in currencies like the Swiss franc and the Euro.
|
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2008 at 3:40am
Stung firms want banks to pay
Tamal Bandyopadhyay
As clients turn adversaries, big Indian banks gear up for lawsuits over complex sales pitches.
The lit fuse on a derivatives time bomb in India is getting shorter.
It appears that hundreds of Indian companies that bought these complex
cross-currency options and structured products to seemingly protect
themselves from foreign exchange risk are now staring at significant
losses. And many of them are starting to cry foul.
As a result, banks that sold such products are gearing up for legal battles
with clients turned adversaries, predominantly small and medium Indian
companies, many with unsophisticated internal risk management
practices, who are questioning the very legality of such products.
On one side of this battle are some of the fastest growing and most aggressive banks in India—Yes Bank Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd, ICICI Bank Ltd, HDFC Bank Ltd, among others—and powerful law firms, such as Amarchand and Mangaldas and Suresh A Shroff and Co., and AZB and Partners.
Arrayed against them are a growing list of small companies, some publicly traded, as well as the well-regarded law firm of J Sagar Associates, a crack team of investigators at auditor KPMG and independent consultants such as A.V. Rajwade, perhaps India’s leading expert when it comes to derivatives.
Because Indian accounting laws do not require companies to report notional losses on account of derivatives contracts, details of losses are just beginning to come in. Experts say that many companies are aware of the losses—indeed, in several cases, the chief financial officer (CFO) has been quietly axed—but will only report them in coming quarters on closing out their contracts.
The implications are significant for companies that have resorted to such instruments to hedge their foreign exchange exposure as well as for a country that considers itself insulated against most global financial risks.
The banks and their lawyers claim the derivatives—a financial term used to describe an instrument whose value is a function of an underlying commodity, bond, stock, or currency (also simply called underlying) and which is used as a risk management and mitigation tool—are legal.
Lawyers and consultants advising the affected firms say the products that were sold violate the country’s Foreign Exchange Management Act, which regulates all foreign currency transactions, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) guidelines. At the core of the battle is a debate over whether these were sold for hedging or speculation.
Law firms that Mint spoke to say that at least six companies have filed suits in various courts across India and add that many more such cases are on their way.
This is page 1 of the 5 page article on http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/17002646/Stung-firms-want-banks-to-pay.html - LiveMint. Read rest here.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 9:04pm
In India, the first time media reported derivatives loss of a firm was in 2006 when the Food Corporation of India suffered a loss in its swap transaction with a British bank. Being a state-run firm, it did not hide its losses, but hundreds of small and medium firms that bought such products from banks in the past few years are not talking about their transactions till such time the potential loss is enough to wipe out their entire net worth. And the losses are increasing even as the blame game continues.
Lawyers and risk management experts who are being hired by the firms that have burnt their fingers are accusing banks of “mis-selling” and enticing firms to “speculate” instead of hand-holding them to genuine hedging while http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/17012745/Greed-and-punishment-for-banks.html - banks are calling these lawyers “ambulance chasers”—a derogatory phrase that typically refers to attorneys who solicit business from accident victims or their families.
|
Whatever happens, lawyers always benefit!
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 9:40pm
son : papa ab ky ahoga ??? we are invested in the company who bet on these products and to hedge that we bought banks
TAU papa : is there a listed company for lawyers??? ____________________________________________
ps: i dont think i can match kulman ji on this ....
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 9:42pm
This problem is becoming very serious.I heard(unconfirmed) that Rajshree Sugars has already sent letters to its Bankers claiming that it did not know how serious the consequences were for its hedged contracts.
Now if we assume that it is only the Banking sector which would be under problem then it is incorect. This is because over a period of time all industries have been addicted to trading in forex markets. Now what business did a sugar company have in trading in these options?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 10:29pm
Originally posted by basant
This problem is becoming very serious.I heard(unconfirmed) that Rajshree Sugars has already sent letters to its Bankers claiming that it did not know how serious the consequences were for its hedged contracts.
Now if we assume that it is only the Banking sector which would be under problem then it is incorect. This is because over a period of time all industries have been addicted to trading in forex markets. Now what business did a sugar company have in trading in these options?
|
BasantJi.....it could have been to cover their ECB's or Loans.
Last summer these products were very popular like Taking INR loans, then swapping them into USD and then into Yen or CHF.
They would then hedge it through $-Yen and USD-INR. Importantly that trade left the Interest which is to be paid in Yen "Unhedged". That "Unhedged" Yen interest could not be hedged as under current indian regulations, you cannot trade a derivative on a derivative.
Now those interest have increased due to credit crisis (increased Yen libors), Swaps have collapsed between Yen and USD and Yen has soared. A triple wammy!!!
Welcome to the game Rajshri Sugars!!!
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: WarrenJr
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 1:20am
It is not just perception anymore, Jyothi labs is has filed a lawsuit against Axis bank for selling derivatives even when there was no need.
It seems RBI prohibits banks from doing this.
Anyway, rules could go both ways it seems as per CNBC. There could be string of lawsuits and the comprimise being suggested is that both parties bear the losses equally.
This is BIG impact if true.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 1:30am
Is this confirmed or just a rumour. If confirmed please quote the source. I do not think that it would be so easy for corporates to go back on their word but surely valuations would be impacted because of perception.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: WarrenJr
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 1:37am
I thought i wrote something but it disappeared. Anyway, today i saw on CNBC they showed a lawsuit related to Jyothi labs(?) versus Axis Bank.
It seems Axis sold derivates that it was not supposed to sell because Jyothi did not need the same. RBI prohibits this it seems.
Anyway, the reporter was suggesting that the best way is to settle out of court with both sides sharing the losses equally.
This if it spirals, could be BIG news. Maybe that's way, you don't see any support coming in for ICICI Bank even at 750..
People were swearing by ICICI just few weeks ago..
Does smart money know something we TEDies don't know..?
Is this why banks got wiped out in the trade today?
I am just posting this so that TEDies can reduce exposure if they CHOOSE to do so... It is your decision alone... Don't blame or praise anyone..
|
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 2:47am
Hi Warren, Thanks for the update. I will wait some time before putting any fresh money.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
|
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 2:52am
Bubble,
Are those positions still open?
Are they same trades for everybody like short yen? And on same side of market?
What %(roughly) would be large businesses or what would be small businesses. DId these companies show profit last year on these trades? or they were never in profit?
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 10:37am
Originally posted by manishdave
Bubble,
Are those positions still open?
|
Manishjee.......Most have been knocked out!
Originally posted by manishdave
Are they same trades for everybody like short yen? And on same side of market?
|
Trades have been same...Short YEN and CHF.
Originally posted by manishdave
What %(roughly) would be large businesses or what would be small businesses. DId these companies show profit last year on these trades? or they were never in profit?
|
All kinds of companies are there. Big and Small. The KO's are scattered. Its a global phenomena and NOT an India specific phenomena.
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 10:41am
Silly Question . CHF is Swiss Franc ?
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 10:52am
Originally posted by Mohan
Silly Question . CHF is Swiss Franc ?
|
Yes
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:06am
Forex derivative contracts may not be secured by tangible assets. For recovery of derivative losses long legal battles are foreseen. Consequently provisioning for losses will suppress profits of banks.
In the current scenario, other income of banks will go down substantially because of no deivative income,lesser brokerage income and lesser AMC fee income.
In Rjshree Sugar vs Axis Bank, former has appealed to the court to stay demand of M T M losses by the later.
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:06am
naach na jaane, aangan teda
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:14am
Mohan jee you mean....
नाच न जाने आँगन टेढ़ा.
- Literal: A person who cannot dance claims that the stage is tilted.
- English equivalent: A bad workman blames his tools.
- Bengali equivalent: Naachte na janle uthan baeka.
- Marathi equivalent: Naachataa yeInaa aangan waakade.
- Tamil equivalent: Aada teriyada tevadiya, mutram konal.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:25am
basant,
Did the news of Axis banks problems in forex derivatives have a trigger on your decision to cut down on Axis and move to Titan and CBoP?
Originally posted by basant
This problem is becoming very serious.I heard(unconfirmed) that Rajshree Sugars has already sent letters to its Bankers claiming that it did not know how serious the consequences were for its hedged contracts.
Now if we assume that it is only the Banking sector which would be under problem then it is incorect. This is because over a period of time all industries have been addicted to trading in forex markets. Now what business did a sugar company have in trading in these options?
|
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
|
Posted By: BGKGURU
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:32am
AS PER CNBC REPORT,
RAJSHREE SUGAR GOT INTERIM STAY ORDER AGAINST ANY RECOVERY
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:33am
No, I got this rumour only last day evening. Normally I was watching the Yen very carefully and the moment Yen broke 100 I was sure that there could be problems.
Most of the corporates had been on a KO at below 100 so I thought that at below 100 chaos, court cases etc could rule.
With HDFC bank I am convinced that there would be no litigation issues because these guys are not in exotic cross currency trades but in markets we are never sure and that is why CBoP is the only bank stoick which I hold.
I also switched into Titan which I mentioned in the Titan thread yesterday.
Only time will tell whether my decision is correct or not for the moment I have chickened out. 
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:36am
Basantji, So YES is NO more ? Axis out too ? CBOP in ?
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2008 at 11:44am
thanks for this info, i was under the assumption after seeing your posts yesterday that you had only REDUCED your position in Axis. Only now came to know that you have exited completely.
Based on this story(which was posted in the other thread) http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/14/news/economy/krugman_subprime.fortune/index.htm we are looking at a SERIOUS problem in the U.S.(and thereby the rest of the world as well) financial markets for the next few years??? 
Originally posted by basant
markets we are never sure and that is why CBoP is the only bank stoick which I hold.
I also switched into Titan which I mentioned in the Titan thread yesterday.
|
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
|
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 18/Mar/2008 at 12:36pm
BasantJi...I hope that you know who the FOREX head at Yes Bank is.....
He was earlier with Bank of America (Indian ops) and has a reputation of ...... .
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Mar/2008 at 1:33pm
Bubble jee...Reputation of??? Suspense mein maro mat!!! :-(
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 1:18pm
A senior employee of a Bank whose stock has come under serious hammering said on the Bank defaulting on huge Fx losses "Yeh sab faltu baat hai"
Since this conversation was between a relative and him I am concealing the identity.
As usual please take your decisions accordingly.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 4:58pm
but basantji u can name the bank he is working for i think that wont get anyone into trouble
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 4:59pm
CLSA: Which Banks Are At Risk? HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bank Of Rajasthan, Karur Vysya, City Union Since
our first note highlighting risks of exotic forex trades for corporates
(Exotic Show - Caveat Emptor; 28th November 2007); both Yen and Swissy
have appreciated ~11% vis-ŕ-vis USD. Based on our sensitivity a 15%
default (of total MTM losses) would lead to a 2-4% reduction in
net-worth (10-15% of earnings) for private banks. Fee
income from these exotic products has grown significantly in last 2
years for some private sector banks. In our view, a cautious stance by
corporates and potential restrictions by RBI can lead to lower growth
over a high base / decline in fee income from these products in FY09,
earnings impact could be 4-6%. JPY and CHF have appreciated c12% YTD q Since
our first note highlighting risks of exotic forex trades for corporates
(Exotic Show - Caveat Emptor; 28th November 2007); both Yen and Swissy
have appreciated ~11% vis-ŕ-vis USD. q In
addition to losses accumulating on earlier contracts (which knocked-out
at 110 levels), a lot more contracts have been knocked out at various
levels such as 105, 102, 100 etc. q The
problem is much more severe than what it was when we first highlighted
it 3 months ago. For e.g. a $100m underlying contract with initial rate
at 115JPY/USD and knock-out at 100JPY/USD would now have
marked-to-market losses of c$15m (15% of contract value) Risks for corporates - One time hit + Loss of other income/higher interest costs q Entry
into these contracts (at time of entering into the contracts, losses
were considered a remote possibility) helped corporates boost other
income or significantly reduce interest costs. q One can consider writing these contracts (details
of contracts in our earlier research) similar to selling insurance
policies for a low probability catastrophic event ( which in this case
happens to be sharp appreciation of JPY/Swissy) q Not
only will the corporates have to take large losses (Marked-to-market,
but probability of crystallisation also very high given the sharp
appreciation) on existing trades leading to one-time losses; but future
option writing activity will shrink significantly reducing avenues for
boosting profits. This can impact recurring profit growth in some cases. Multiple efforts to address the problem q Conversion
of MTM losses to loans by banks given the inability of clients to
pay-up or desire of clients to postpone losses from being reported in
P&L immediately. q Rolling over losses on existing contracts by entering into new contracts with some upfront profits. q Based
on our discussion with a few market participants, a number of
corporates have taken large bets on flattening/steepening of yield
curve in US to generate upfront profits to payoff losses on forex
contracts. (we will discuss some of these interest-rate linked exotic
products in subsequent research) Risks for banks - Default risk + Loss of fee income in future q
Some
corporates have challenged the validity of these contracts claiming
"mis-selling by banks". A number of SMEs are unlikely to pay-up the
losses leading to NPAs and one-time provisions by banks. q Some corporate have asked banks to
crystallise losses and convert them into loans q Based
on our sensitivity a 15% default (of total MTM losses) would lead to a
2-4% reduction in net-worth (10-15% of earnings) for private banks q Fee
income from these exotic products has grown significantly in last 2
years for some private sector banks. In our view, a cautious stance by
corporates and potential restrictions by RBI can lead to lower growth
over a high base / decline in fee income from these products in FY09,
earnings impact could be 4-6%.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 6:06pm
Yes bank is the one that has been thrashed!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 10:30pm
Originally posted by PrashantS
CLSA: Which Banks Are At Risk?
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bank Of Rajasthan, Karur Vysya, City Union
|
It is simpy unbelievable that CLSA hasnt named Yes, Kotak and/or Axis in all the above mess? Market on the other hand thinks that Yes and/or Axis could be the biggest losers?
I am really suprised at this report by CLSA!! HDFC Bank in that list, but no Yes Bank??? What's going on I have no idea!!! Havent CLSA done the compete homework???
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 10:32pm
May be they are just talking about the companies under their coverage.
------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 10:40pm
Could be possibly...yes!!
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 12:07pm
omshiva ji u still count on these reports ....they are released so that we read it
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 2:14am
Nah, dont o out of my way to read it. Someone posted it, so thought of asking.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2008 at 10:19am
One more on the list?
http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/20000354/Bankers-claim-derivativesh*t.html - Bankers claim derivatives-hit Wockhardt books losses
Wockhardt Ltd, India’s fifth largest drug maker by revenue, has taken a significant hit from exposure to complex cross-currency options and structured products, say several bankers and risk management experts.
These people, none of whom wanted to be identified, said the drug maker’s paper losses, because of the dollar’s continued weakness against global currencies, are “substantial” and could result in Wockhardt swinging to a loss when it reports first quarter results, especially if the greenback continues to be weak.
According to the same bankers, Wockhardt has been in the derivatives market for the past few years and has a dedicated risk management team.
While it has a growing presence in overseas markets, especially in Europe, Wockhardt had raised FCCB for potentially funding acquisitions in the US. According to the same bankers, a significant portion of this fund has possibly been used to buy structured derivatives products.
|
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 20/Mar/2008 at 1:14pm
What Udayan Mukherjee says about Banks
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=71de44a2-d46a-4e94-ade9-8a33973b1ab9&&Headline=STRONGMarket+Watch%2fSTRONG%3a+Can+you+bank+on+them%3f - http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=71de44a2-d46a-4e94-ade9-8a33973b1ab9&&Headline=STRONGMarket+Watch%2fSTRONG%3a+Can+you+bank+on+them%3f
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Mar/2008 at 1:25pm
Most important lines from that article:
After this global financial turmoil is over, investors will realise these are secular growth businesses. The time to buy them is at the height of pessimism and bad news flow and that time may be arriving soon. Many of them are high quality institutions, do not let the small blemishes or the noise throw you off. |
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 12:38pm
Has the height of pessimism been reached yet ?
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: Musketeer
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 12:54pm
Originally posted by Mohan
Has the height of pessimism been reached yet ? |
Not yet, in my opinion.
With the brokerages still giving targets for the Sensex at year-end (though the targets have been revised to 19K).
My hunch is that next quarter is going to be the toughest one for the US financial sector and there are some reports of an impending credit crunch in Europe now.
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 11:21am
Snehalji, Shashiji and all other experts,
When can you we expect the dust over the forex losses to settle? As I understand (unfortunately, I haven't followed TED for the past few days) these issues have created a possibility of impacting the bottom lines of our pvt sector banks, the extent of this dent is not yet known. Will the year ending results clear all these doubts, rumors, assumptions? - so that we can get a clear picture and just look forward.
I think the better banks themselves might have learned some lessons - so such a folly in future should not be expected from them.
Also what are the acceptable levels of losses or provisions for each of Yes, KMB and Axis bank?
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 11:26am
One more question I have is how long have the corporates been involved in such Forex derivative products? The point is, if they had also made profits from the same, but are now wary of the losses, then its a foul play...
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 11:42am
More then impacting the bottomline which in any case is one time the problem is about achieving the growth which was based to some extent out of selling such products.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 11:48am
Two points: * How much were they earning for selling such products? * I think at the end of all this drama, companies that are exposed to international markets will still have to do some hedging though that will genuine and not speculative. Now how much of the participants in the current fiasco were genuine and how many were speculative is not known.
Your thoughts please..
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 12:04pm
a) It was very high for banks like Yes, Kotak relatively high for Axis and ICICI and moderate for HDFC bank.
b) Sure but that would be plain vanilla forex cover where youn sell the dollars that you receive not go into cross currency options!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 7:14pm
Banks blame law firms for 'misguiding' firms on Fx derivatives
MUMBAI: Private sector lenders on Tuesday criticised law firms and consultants for wrongly prompting corporates not to meet their payment commitments to banks after the companies started making losses due to volatility in global markets.
Besides, the banks also wanted more finite guidelines from the Reserve Bank on structured derivative products such as interest rate swaps and currency swaps. It is believed that the exposure of Indian banks in forex (Fx) derivative products is Rs 10,000 -15,000 crore.
In derivatives, however, foreign bankers are the major players. The exposure of the public sector banks, barring State Bank of India, Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, is limited in forex derivative products.
The private sector banks, which did not want to be quoted, said many law firms acting as intermediaries between banks and SMEs are now taking advantage of the confusions in the foreign exchange and derivatives products market prompting companies not to m eet their obligations and thus to prolong the litigations.
"We have seen many lawyers (of SMEs that made losses in derivative products) prompting their clients not to meet their obligations to banks citing various reasons. It's high time for the Reserve Bank to come out with a more finite guideline on such produ cts," Head of a private sector bank said.
A host of private sector banks such as Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and Yes Bank are understood to be in legal battles with their corporate clients who question the validity and legality of the derivative products when they started incurr ing losses in derivatives market.
Corporates started making losses following the high volatility and the consecutive widening in spreads in a variety of derivative products such as interest rate swaps and currency swaps. - PTI
Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/17251709.htm - HBL
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
|
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 8:47pm
Interesting to note, the same corporates were happy booking profits when the trade went their way. Now that the tide has turned, suddenly, banks are at fault.
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 10:01pm
still ntohign is clear i am not if losses will be shown on their balance sheets this quarter..lets wait and watch
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 1:35pm
All the corporates involved in forex derivative have to book their M T M losses in their Balance Sheets as on 31/03/2008.
However A S 30 will become mandatory from 2011 but A S 1 and A S11 are there to cover the issue. It has been made clear by the ICAI.
http://www.icai.org/icairoot/announcements/announ1359.html - http://www.icai.org/icairoot/announcements/announ1359.html
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 1:59pm
This would in some sense bring an early end to the problem. With the fear of booking losses corporates would have carried their losses over but now with the guideline of showing MTM losses at least companies will take a new look at things.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 3:09pm
That is positive side of the story but how the market will react to the huge negative impact on the earnings of Q4.
As per media reports losses may be upto Rs 15000 crores. How much market cap is feared to be vanished on this account. Has market discounted these losses?
It seems that market has been discounting it so far for banking stocks only.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 3:15pm
You are right. The exporters (software) are taking the brunt today! While the bigger companies will manage it the threat of survival will be on the smaller ones.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 3:46pm
This is good for banks because this losses(ifany) is not their loss it is their client loss which now will come to fore and in the long run banks are not laiable unless a company goes belly up
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 3:51pm
UM says "--------The only thing is that repeated attempts towards the end of a bottom are never good signs, typically when they happened with the kind of speed that they are happening. So one would be a little apprehensive and worried about what is going on. But I still think these are not technicals driven kind of markets, there is no overleverage. I do not think any level as such is being paid any great respect but these are bigger forces which are shaping the market right now. Inflation and interest rates which are absolutely core to equity markets, the fear of earnings hits because of any of these forex transactions etc leading to downgrades and the fear of global markets coming down once again. -----"
http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=332161&special=today - http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=332161&special=today
|
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 3:53pm
Originally posted by reetesh
This is good for banks because this losses(ifany) is not their loss it is their client loss which now will come to fore and in the long run banks are not laiable unless a company goes belly up |
Reetesh bhai,
first of all banks are corporates too, so this directive shall include them too.
Secondly booking losses does not neccessarily mean that the corporates will pay up easily ....... they could book losses & at the same time add a note in the balance sheet that the aforementioned loss amount is disputed and matter is in court or is being negotiated with banks.
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful
|
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:01pm
Indeed they are corporates but they for themselves has/have not taken this position, it is for their clients and anyways all banks are hedged against this so MTM losses are not for banks but for the companies, banks are the facilitator(s).
I know it won`t be easy to take money (back), that is why I told in medium to long term it is a non-issue for banks, but if for this reason that particular company files for bankruptcy then nothing can be done.
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
|
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by reetesh
Indeed they are corporates but they for themselves has/have not taken this position, it is for their clients and anyways all banks are hedged against this so MTM losses are not for banks but for the companies, banks are the facilitator(s).
I know it won`t be easy to take money (back), that is why I told in medium to long term it is a non-issue for banks, but if for this reason that particular company files for bankruptcy then nothing can be done. |
Reetesh bhai,
but as per new norms if the amount remains outstanding for 2 qtrs it will have to be shown as NPA by the banks ... this US financial mess up is now continuing for more then 6 months .... so I think even the banks will have to make NPA provision for them ... when they recover the recovered amount would become profits ..
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:09pm
Many corporates availing ECBs may find it not possible to roll over these ECBs because the spread is prvailing above 2.5% and RBI does not permit spread in excess of 2.5%.
Therfore these corporates have to pay such cheap loans.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:09pm
Bankruptcy is not an issue as much as a courtcase/litigation is. Stray bankruptcies here and there can be handled but if a High court orders against a Bank (though I doubt if this should happen) then the problem could be really sticky.
Also these are unsecured debt unless Banks have taken these positions against fixed assets of companies.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:14pm
today the nse / bse is going down real steadily as a rock going down in water ..... where will it stop today
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful
|
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:15pm
Originally posted by basant
Also these are unsecured debt unless Banks have taken these positions against fixed assets of companies.
|
If the client ( forex derivative holder) is a non borrower, these are unsecured debts.
|
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 4:15pm
the nse / bse is going down real hard today as a rock in water ...... where will it stop today
were fii net buyers or sellers or did both today
y
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful
|
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 5:02pm
Also these are unsecured debt unless Banks have taken these positions against fixed assets of companies.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is where management of these respective banks comes into play hope they did`nt go overboard for profits.
This is the reason I believe in banking conservative management is best for long term investment-ing.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gopal ji,
That is the reason I said these can be recovered over a period of time. NPA for the banks will be keenly watched for this quater and this quater is the litmus test for Indian Banking.
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 9:13am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=af8MlUPq6pwk&refer=home - Indian Treasurers' Currency Bets Are Going Sour: Andy Mukherjee
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 10:01am
Fear of slowdown in GDP (MS projects 7.1%, Citi forecast 7.7%, JP Morgan at 7%) , RBI holding up interest rates, fear of derivatives loses, credit growth slowing, capital markets activity are all taking a toll on Banks.
Bankex have underperformed the Index in FY08.
------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 10:05am
http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=1&bKeyFlag=BO&autono=318623&chkFlg= - Derivative deals: Karur firm takes ICICI Bank to court
There's never just one cockroach in the kitchen---Warren Buffett |
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 10:08am
Yes, that is why I came out of the kitchen but still have got one leg in it!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 10:14am
Originally posted by basant
Yes, that is why I came out of the kitchen but still have got one leg in it! |
Aap ka toh pet bhi bhara tha aur jyaada bhookh nahin thi!
Having said that, the need of the hour is fumigation. Let's hope Pest Control by RBI would be successful.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 31/Mar/2008 at 11:00am
i think we can then bet on godrej industries - they are the ones who have the 'herbal pest control' product ;) The next hope is These are just cockroaches and not rodents.
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
|
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2008 at 2:45pm
Banks as casinos, corporates as gamblers
To explain the issue at
hand, let me borrow the definition of banking as it stands in the
statute book. According to the Banking Regulation Act, 1949, banking is
defined as 'accepting deposit of money from public for the purpose of
lending or investment.' In short, banking is simply taking money from one as deposit and lending to other. But
this definition was drafted during innocent times. And times have
changed, perhaps drastically, so much so that 'modern banking' is
beyond comprehension of even qualified finance professionals. For
an outsider it would seem that most of these modern, second-generation
and private sector banks in India are behaving like casinos. In
fact, should they not carry out these titillating activities they can
never add the appellation 'modern' or for that matter
'second-generation' to their brand equity. Such is the imperial demand
of the modern times. Moreover, anyone who has a contrary view is
instantly labelled as primordial by the beneficiaries of this system. I
hope that readers realise that like drug peddlers encouraging users of
drug by providing easy and cheap drugs, some of these banks have lured
corporates in India to enter into what is popularly called 'exotic
derivative contracts.' As I understand from corporate India and
my fellow professionals, the bait was first to 'allow' these corporates
to make easy money in the first few transactions entered by the banks
with the corporates. Corporates, emboldened by such initial
success, recklessly began to take bigger bets. And when their bets went
awry, they were stuck with massive losses. However, it may be
interesting to note that banks may not end up with the concomitant
profits. And that is the crux of the issue. This piece
essentially seeks to explain the latest threat by our baking sector to
our corporates and by our corporates to our banks. How these exotic derivative works Let
me illustrate the situation through a hypothetical contract entered
into by a corporate and a bank. Let us further assume that these
contracts are entered on January 1, 2007 for a year when the corporate
'notionally' agrees to sell Euro for purchasing US $5 million, that is,
without any compelling need for the corporate to purchase US dollar.
Nor does it have any Euros to sell. Yet the contract is entered into. Further, we assume that the Euro was equal to $1.30 in the spot market on the day of the contract. These
contacts usually have a 'knock out' clause. That is, if the US dollar
appreciates to say 1.27 against the Euro, the bank would pay the Indian
corporate, say, a sum of $10,000 and the contract would come to an end. Similarly,
if the US dollar depreciated to 1.33 against the Euro, the corporate in
turn would pay the bank a sum of say US $15,000. But this is with a
crucial distinction -- the contract would not come to an end and it
would continue even as the US dollar depreciates against the Euro. Now
to the third part of the contract -- this is the killer -- and this is
called 'knock in.' Should the US dollar depreciate against the Euro to
1.40, the corporate would have to pay $5 million multiplied by 1.40
less a predetermined rate of say 1.20. (why 1.20 is again a story in
itself -- but to put it briefly, it is an arbitrary figure). Readers
may note that, in the above instance, the corporate would have to pay
twenty cents for every one US dollar contracted, which works out to $
1million. And that is not all. Should the US dollar appreciate to above
1.40 and once again depreciate, the corporate would have to pay the
above sum every time the dollar breaches the 1.40 mark! And on
January 1, 2008, this notional contract is reversed at the prevailing
rates between US dollar and Euro. It may be noted that the above is
merely illustrative of the financial engineering attempted by both
parties. Needless to emphasise it does have numerous variations and
attendant complexities. Even Shylock would not have made such a
skewed contract. And if one is still unable to comprehend this issue,
let me remind one of the childhood board games, 'Monopoly.' Modern
banking is merely an adult version of the same with two important
variations -- the players need to have formal qualifications and the
net impact runs into several million rupees, or dollars. Crucially,
this is merely a sample of what goes on in the arcane world of finance.
It is indeed a sorry state of affairs to note that the best of minds in
India are engaged in surpassing Shylock. Don't all these look farcical
especially after the players have cleared tough competitive
professional examinations? Isn't all this an attempt to make money out of thin air? Where are the regulators? It may be noted that the Reserve Bank of India had brought out a circular stating inter alia
that such contracts can be entered into by banks only if there is an
underlying foreign exchange transaction. This means that only genuine
exporters and importers can enter into such transactions based on their
legitimate requirement of foreign exchange. What is being
increasingly witnessed is that both the corporates and banks have
thrown caution to the winds as banks have not insisted on any
underlying contracts. And that has provided a window of opportunity to
corporates. What is interesting to note here is that the
outstanding value of all these contracts reported to the RBI by all
banks aggregates to approximately $3 trillion as at December 2007. Such
a huge amount is inexplicable simply because the total foreign exchange
hedging requirement (aggregate of both imports and exports) of the
country cannot exceed $500 billion in a year. And even assuming
that all of these are hedged and outstanding on that date (which is
unlikely), the figure of approximately $3 trillion suggests that a
substantial number of such contracts have been entered into between
banks and corporates without any underlying requirement, perhaps merely
as a wager. Since RBI is in the know of these figures, one is not
certain whether some of the banks have effectively hoodwinked the RBI
or have they taken advantage of some loophole. Another dimension
that requires RBI's immediate attention is that many banks have
converted their treasury departments into profit centres and fixed
profit targets for the same. This is similar to fixing profit targets
for cashiers. And when that happens, it is natural for cashiers to pay
you Rs 900 for every Rs 1,000 withdrawn. No wonder, when such
targets were fixed, treasury managers went on an overdrive selling such
products to corporates. And this is a serious ethical and corporate
governance issue and, to me, remains at the root of the problem. What
has added fuel to the fire is that the US dollar has been consistently
weakening against all major currencies across the world in 2007. And
banks with foreign exchange experts on their panels have invariably
ensured that corporates 'notionally' end up purchasing the US dollar
and banks end up purchasing other global currencies. When the
US dollar depreciated against other currencies, corporates found
themselves holding the wrong end of the stick. How could banks provide
such advice to clients when they were in the know of an impending
depreciation of the US dollar? Naturally, corporates are visited
by huge losses. As and when losses are actually booked, in some cases
it could wipe out the net worth of corporates several times over. And
that is why the banks are worried -- they may not be the beneficiaries
of such transactions. Corporates no less guilty As
events unfold, corporates, especially public companies, (some with
independent directors on their boards) are no less guilty. Managements
claim that they were completely unaware of these transactions entered
into by their own employees. In an astonishing case of self indictment,
the management of a public company has even gone on record in an
affidavit before a court stating that it was not at all aware of these
contracts. And when pointed out to the fact that they enjoyed the
profits from such transactions for the year ending March 31, 2007
(which was taken into account and also audited when the affidavit was
filed before the courts), they have claimed complete ignorance -- yes,
ignorance coupled with injured innocence -- on the matter. As the
stench from this imbroglio overwhelms us, it is increasingly clear that
RBI, the Securities Exchange Board of India, and the Registrar of
Companies have lots to answer for. Playing with other people's money It
does not matter who should be the beneficiary of such transactions:
banks or corporates. Either way, it is the common man who is the loser.
In case of banks, we lose (as depositors and shareholders). If
corporates lose, we (as shareholders) lose. It is time to realise
that both corporates and banks are playing with other people's money.
And RBI has to intervene in the matter decisively and at once. It needs
to set up a high power committee comprising eminent bankers, lawyers,
media personnel, finance and foreign exchange experts to set right the
matter. Allowing the issue to fester any longer would irreparably
harm the Indian economy. In any emerging economy, banks cannot turn
into casinos or corporates into gamblers. PS: It is indeed
inexplicable that many such contracts have been reported from the
southern part of the country, where corporates are supposedly
conservative. source: rediff
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2008 at 6:17pm
Nice article. Who authored this one?
Don't all these look farcical
especially after the players have cleared tough competitive
professional examinations? Isn't all this an attempt to make money out of thin air? | This is a serious dent to the reputation (if any) of MBA brigade.
On a side note, crčme de la crčme some of the best brains from IIMs are appointed by investment bankers in US. Now it is not to suggest that they are the only cause of their failure.
Irrationality is the main culprit.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2008 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by kulman
Nice article. Who authored this one?
Don't all these look farcical especially after the players have cleared tough competitive professional examinations?
Isn't all this an attempt to make money out of thin air? | This is a serious dent to the reputation (if any) of MBA brigade.
On a side note, crčme de la crčme some of the best brains from IIMs are appointed by investment bankers in US. Now it is not to suggest that they are the only cause of their failure.
Irrationality is the main culprit.
|
True ...human emotions of greed and more greed doesnt have anything to do with one's qualification...MBA or no MBA the pressure to perform and get more business hits everyone....this needs emotional balance more than anything else.
------------- Warm REgards
Nitin Jagtap
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2008 at 6:31pm
no wonder so many babas and sadhus have generated money and fame from exotic yoga and pranayam techniques!
i know one baba from pune who also happens to be an ace L&T investor!
------------- Saab Moh Maya hai!
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 08/Apr/2008 at 9:24am
http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?autono=319436&leftnm=2&subLeft=0&chkFlg= - Kotak-Sundaram derivatives dispute heads for arbitration
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
|
|