Blue Star replaces Network 18 in TheEquuityDesk XI
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Identifying Multibaggers
Forum Discription: Discuss specific attributes that investors could look at while choosing multibaggers. Also point out certain factors that investors tend to overlook while finding multibaggers.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1533
Printed Date: 07/May/2025 at 4:38am
Topic: Blue Star replaces Network 18 in TheEquuityDesk XI
Posted By: basant
Subject: Blue Star replaces Network 18 in TheEquuityDesk XI
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:09pm
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http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=451 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=270&PN=1 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=270&PN=1 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=429&FID=41&PR=3 - The Equity Desk XI is because mandatory CAS seems nowhere in place, the Home shopping business at Network 18 has been unable to to much ice with their much talked about Home shopping channel put on the back burner because of lukewarm public demand - at least that is what I am told.
Blue Star combines perfectly with TED's mandate of a 40% grower and though it is amanufacturing company a substantial part of its revenues are derived from services (Annual maintenence contracts).
One would think that Blue Star is a seasonal business but commercial ACs have no seasonality. If a Mall is completed in December then Air conditioners need to be installed in December itself and cannot be postponed till the summer season as is the case with Home ACs.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:15pm
| i would like to know any global players same here with market cap.thanks if u reply. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:17pm
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That is for you to find out and for me to know and for me to find out and for you to know! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:18pm
| thanks. |
Posted By: ganeshbhandary
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:22pm
| surprise surprise what a timing yesterday i've sold my nw18 holdings exactly for the same reason as basantji mentioned.i hope i've made a right decision,internet/tele shopping have been tried by many but i dont feel it had its share of success.Resulting shares i've utilised to buy asian electronics and core projects which seems to be in a corrective mode. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:26pm
Thanks is no answer. My options are Carrier Aircon in US and Hitachi (a diversified company in Japan). What are your options since you were trying to pull a fast one on me? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:32pm
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TheEquityDesk XI now gets the much needed diversification. Blue Star is a good proxy on rising home incomes (home ACs), commericial real estate (malls & offices), retail, infrastructure (airports etc) and logistics (cold storage). There might be upside surprises because the company seems to be steadily increasing its net profit margins every quarter.
Among global peers, Trane and Carrier comes to my mind. Trane was recently acquired by Ingersoll Rand for $10 billion while Carrier (a subsidiary of a larger company) had sales of $2 billion last year.
I guess Blue Star would eventually be acquired by a larger infrastructure company after a few years.
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Posted By: ganeshbhandary
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:39pm
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Basantji,
koi smallcap stock bhi chun liya keejiyena.All your picks established cum solid picks.Bluestar no dought a very good choice but do think from present market cap of Rs4000crores+is there any steam left for it to be a potential multibagger say 8-10 bagger.Does the potential market size of this segment will permit it to attain such gains.Voltas will be definetly a good competetor and there are players like hitachi,LLoyd etc.
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Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:42pm
i am just surprised and no other intention.i will work out to find.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:53pm
Voltas is also a great business model but I have followed Blue Star closely hence the preference. Who doesn't want a multibaggers but it should come with minimal downside. WHen I had started Axis bank it was considered as a defensive buy but didn't it surprise all of us. Similarly I am working on a couple of ideas would put it up the moment I find them to be worthy of a bet!
In this quest for multibagger we do not want to lose all that we have made over the last 5 years. That is a thought which lingers in my mind each time I analyse a company.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: getmanoj
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:05pm
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Basant sir, Do you think that from current level Blue star can double in 3-3.5 years? I wanted to buy this for a long time but was postponing it. If i ask in terms of probability, how much probability is there to become it a 2 bagger in 3 years? Regards, Manoj |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:07pm
Very high but for that there are several options like Axis, HDFC bank etc.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: getmanoj
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:10pm
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i already have exposure in Axis and HDFC Bank.But i think, i can replace HDFC (not bank) to Blue Star... |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:21pm
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Not at all a bad idea.You put 15% more growth doing that.HDFC grows at 25%. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:27pm
Absolutely Basant sir. Hope those "ideas coming" are on the same lines when you chose Pantaloon 3-4 years back. We need those picks too you know. Some have entered the market maybe just 1-2 year back and they need to have that feeling that you did.
Choti mooh aur baadi baat, maaf kariyega!
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 10:36pm
Dear Sir,This is my analysis of Bluestar. FUNDAMENTAL:
TTM P/E = 39
PROJECTED EPS(MAR09)=20.19
EPS GROWTH RATE = 62%
PEG=0.64
SUSTAINABLE EPS GROWTH RATE = 30 %
PEG = 1.3
MCAP= 4419 CR
MCAP/SALES = 3
ROE = 36.91
TECHNICAL:UPTREND (BUY MODE)
50DMA=461
200DMA=317
vijayM
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Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 8:30am
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Basantji,
Bluestar has proved in the past few quaters. Definitely a company with reduced execution risk.
How do you rate their management vision and pedigree..Can they take it to a new level ? Any agressive management plans that you are aware of?
------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 8:38am
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Nothing specific but the visibility of steady earnings growth was more then that of NW18. If they have brought it so far they can surely take it ahead. I think along with Voltas these companies are the better ways to play the Indian real estate/mall/IT/ITES boom. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2008 at 9:19am
As I have seen the management was quite conservative though they have been in this business for more than 40 + years .But during the last 3 odd years they have shed that image and have given a new makeover in terms of branding and also new products.
Not only rising incomes , but also global warming has led to climate changes and more severe summers makes a strong case for people to start going for ACs. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: tigerz_style
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2008 at 2:43pm
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Will this have any effect on its price...............
Blue Star Ltd has informed that in a circular resolution passed on January 11, 2008, the Board of Directors of the Company has considered and approved a Scheme of Arrangement (the Scheme) between the Company and its shareholders and creditors, which inter- alia provides for the reinstatement of the assets of the Company at their respective fair values that are in accordance with the management views and the consequent adjustment in the General Reserve Account for any excess / shortfall arising on account of such revaluation. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2008 at 2:50pm
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blue star bags 38 cr order from ncpil kalpakkam nuclear plant.blue stars credentials helped them bag the order will take 24 months toexecute.source money control.com ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2008 at 9:22pm
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While Blue Star will definitely be a reasonable multibagger from current levels the real kicker to greater returns would be exports and if possible global expansion later. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2008 at 11:31pm
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My opinion on Multi bagger from these levels, I am not very sure it would be that way ...the industry has crossed the first stage of maturity which is evident with the no players coming in, competition will only get tougher(samsung,hitachi,godrej,voltas,onida,carrier,haier etc etc). Things would strongly turn out in BSs favour if they have something really different in terms of service offerings which I feel is not the case.
On the exports front yes it would surely help in building topline growth however if that translates into equivalent bottomline growth is something that needs to be seen, it would help BS if they have a sales and AMC kind of business on the international arena something like voltas , just selling the boxes I think wouldnt help in terms of margins. The Co as I know should give an top side EPS of around 18 based on CMP its quite a discount and is already in the price the instituitinal coverage has also increased in the stock which could mean that discounting could well stretch to 15-18 months going forward. All though the management is very good in terms of image they really havent been very agressive. All said and done my sense is that it should be a decent 25%-30% growth company. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 16/Jan/2008 at 7:53am
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Management does have a lot of work ahead of them to maintain clear leadership in central aitconitioning and foray overseas aggressively to become a multibagger from current levels.
------------- Ajith |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2008 at 7:39pm
Good to see a stock from a sector that I track on the Equitydesk XI, 
Basantji, have you had a look at Thermax in the same sector? The reason why I say this is that reading your first post on this thread, you have reffered to the use of ACs in Malls s..... The latest trend in this sector is gas based Vapour Absorbtion Systems /machines (VAM) in which Thermax specialises (there are very few players in this field) ... It's a more cost effective and maint free system, especially for larger hotels,malls as also for chemical plant refrigeration..... ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2008 at 7:56pm
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You are right Catcalljee,
I had Thermax in the past and I am still studying it, if you look at the numbers and balance sheet, etc etc, this company is a solid case for investment , somehow market doesnt recognise its value. Recently Mr.Deshpande who turned around the company got retired I guess.
Basantjee and Punekars can throw more light on the same. ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2008 at 8:15pm
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no idea on this one but thermax is very well run especially after the death of the promoter a few years back. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2008 at 8:46pm
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phoenix high street is building another 50 malls in tier 1 cities ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Musketeer
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2008 at 11:34am
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Hello Catcall...
Do you know the size of this opportunity, Vapour Absorption Systems? What other services does Thermax offer? What is their potential? Sorry, if it is in the wrong topic. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: joslinjose9
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 9:56pm
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helo basanth sir is it good to buy bluestar at current levels ------------- fear of lord is the beginning of wisdom |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2008 at 9:59pm
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I think so.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigerz_style
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 12:29pm
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When we include Bluestar and Voltas in The Equity Desk thier major area is Air Conditioning. We here consider that these companies wud benefit from the mall culture coming up in India .
Should we not also focus on companies that are in the Glass industry as they form the major chunk of income from these malls and retail boom.
Are we not missing this area ..............
Anyone having any idea about the major companies in this area
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Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 12:50pm
You may want to read this
http://www.outlookbusiness.com/inner.aspx?articleid=1233&subcatgid=616&editionid=36&catgid=9 - Shards of truth  Manufacturers say China is dumping glass. Importers say the glassmakers run a cartel. The truth is as clear as mud -->------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 12:52pm
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Take a look at Asahi and Haldyn. I think the latter is also a value pick reco from RD.
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 2:43pm
Glass is a commodity whsoe prices keep moving. AC companies enjoy a duopoly status in the institutional segment. This is what the management of BlueStar said on capitalideasonline.com
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigerz_style
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2008 at 3:36pm
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Nitin Bhai China mite be dumping glass but when we talk about world class malls and office spaces being built I probably would not agree with you on this point that these world class building will be having low grade Chinese Glass
Its something similar to thinking that in a mall we can have a desi AC for the complete building.
We can have Desi AC 's in small time shops or individual homes but when we will talk about cooling solutions we will talk about Bluestar or Voltas
Similarly small time shopkeepers or individuals mite go for Chinese Glass but I doubt that these big real estate,office companies will do..........
I suppose some other TEDians mite shed some more light on this.
Some of the listed branded companies in this space I know are Saint Gobain and Asahi........
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