Neuroeconomics - As important as PE/EPS
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1442
Printed Date: 07/May/2025 at 4:38am
Topic: Neuroeconomics - As important as PE/EPS
Posted By: kulman
Subject: Neuroeconomics - As important as PE/EPS
Date Posted: 10/Dec/2007 at 9:32am
One of the really astonishing discoveries to come out of neuroeconomics is that the brain has automatic formation of expectations. So once something happens twice in a row, you will, you shall, believe that it will happen a third time. So if a stock goes up, and then up, it's almost impossible for you not to believe that it's going to go up a third time. And Ben Graham wrote about this many years ago in The Intelligent Investor, when he said that the investing public is incorrigible. It cannot count beyond three. And it's as if Ben actually anticipated this discovery of neuroeconomics. And that's important for people to realize too. You will perceive a trend so fast in the modern Internet, you know, financial television world, where things are broadcast continuously in real time. You see ticks constantly. Our parents could only price their portfolios once a day, maybe once a week. We can do it five, ten times a minute. And that leads us to perceive trends constantly. And most of them are just illusions.
---Jason Zweig in an interview http://www.wealthtrack.com/transcript_11-30-2007.php - here.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Replies:
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Dec/2007 at 10:16am
The key is, instead of making decisions in response to what the market does, which means you're permanently in reactive mode, instead of doing that, you put rules in place in advance, and policies and procedures. One very simple rule could be, never sell a stock purely because the price has gone down. Never buy a stock exclusively because the price has gone up. |
This is really interesting. No one talks about it nor is it ever discussed. The Market Wizards has a small section on this right at the end of the book.
A must read http://www.wealthtrack.com/transcript_11-30-2007.php - article .
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2007 at 3:56pm
True, that interview is worth reading.
One can download the video (MP4 Format) http://media.libsyn.com/media/wealthtrack/WEALTHTRACK322.mp4 - here
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2007 at 4:37pm
Thanks for those links guys. Going thru it now.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2007 at 5:13pm
Everyone has experienced these psychological pitfalls. I am ,simply by CHANCE,following his advise on many(not too) risky investments and relying on serendipity.(have concentrated investments as well-a mixed strategy nowadays)
------------- Ajith
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 6:50pm
Another MUST READ
Neuro-economics can help you understand your reactions - and get richer, says Jason Zweig
What goes on in your brain when markets are crashing? Within 12 milliseconds, or one-25th the time it takes you to blink your eye, upsetting financial news can activate the amygdala, a structure in your brain that generates emotions like fear and anger.
That bad news can come in many forms - a headline in this newspaper, a market bulletin on your iPhone, a stock chart on a trading website, a price update or a market pundit preaching doom on television.
Just a flash of the red colour that symbolises a downtick is enough to excite the circuitry in your brain - and to make reflective thinking more difficult.
Merely reading the words "stock market plunges" in this sentence will raise your pulse, quicken your breathing, increase your blood pressure and tense your muscles.
Thus the impulse to stay continuously informed about your investments in times of turmoil leads to nothing but trouble.
The more frequently you check on the prices of your holdings, the more often your brain will send danger signals coursing throughout your body.
Furthermore, the more often you update the prices of your stocks, the more often you will perceive "trends" that are most likely just to be illusions.
Psychologist Paul Andreasen found that investors who received frequent updates on their holdings earned half the returns of those who got no news at all.
Neuro-economics has revealed another crucial aspect of how the investing brain works: expectation is more powerful than experience. In general, anticipating a gain is much more emotionally intense than earning that gain - and expecting to lose money feels even worse than losing it turns out to be.
The fear signals generated by the brain in response to the threat of a market crash are more dreadful than the pain the actual crash will cause.
The brain is not just the computer between our ears; it is a ball of emotion ready to burst in the worst possible way at the worst possible time.
Therefore, investors should keep a brief but candid emotional diary and review it regularly. If your entries from July were honest, they would show that you were elated when the markets rose and that you were miserable in August after your holdings took an unexpected pounding.
The misery is no more likely to be justified than the elation was.
The greatest investors do not turn their emotions off; rather, they turn them inside out, training themselves to distrust their most obvious and natural feelings.
You should also control your cues. Just as a recovering alcoholic knows better than to trust his self-control and walk into a tavern, you should minimise your contact with anything that can fixate your attention on falling market values. Break your obsession with the market by going for a long walk, playing with your children or sneaking out to the cinema.
Stop clicking on market websites. Stay away from the Bloomberg terminal. You will surely be happier - and almost certainly end up richer.
Excerpts from an article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/25/ccneuro125.xml - Don't be a Footsie neurotic
Link Courtesy: BubbleVision
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 7:08pm
Wonderful, please remember to link this article the next time markets fall. It would make the pain less painful.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 7:17pm
In Stock Market parlance: One man's pain would be another's gain
To achieve that inverted thinking sounds simple but not at all easy.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 10:03pm
Some excerpts from another Zweig interview...
http://www.researchmag.com/cms/research/Templates/website/PrinterFriendly.aspx?%7b82485740-FAFD-40E4-B4AC-83147C0C46E7%7d - We spoke with Zweig, now collaborating on a book with Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman , to learn the ways in which financial advisors can apply neuroeconomics in their practices.
Can neuroeconomics help make advisors better investors? |
It can certainly help you understand clients better. You can also use it as a mirror to ask yourself, “What am I actually good at?” Most people aren’t as good at most things as they believe they are. We all have an inner con man who lies to us about our past, our future and even the present.
Are advisors’ brains different from the brains of investors who aren’t professionals? |
I’m very sad to say that I think they don’t differ. Overconfidence is probably the thing that trips up more people than anything else. It’s very hard for professionals who have real expertise to admit the limits of that expertise. Financial advisors may provide great advice on the mechanics of investing and financial planning, but I’m very skeptical that most advisors can add value by picking stocks or mutual funds.
You write that “the neural activity of someone whose investments are making money is indistinguishable from that of someone high on cocaine.” So this goes for advisors too? |
There’s no doubt that professionals are as subject to these kinds of influences. It’s a myth that advisors are more rational or logical or less emotional than clients. If you’re an advisor who picked a mutual fund that turns out to be the top performing fund in America three years in a row and you think you can walk on water, you’re kidding yourself.
How should advisors approach investing , then? |
What all the research boils down to is not to make decisions but rather to follow rules and procedures and to act in accordance with policy. If you make decisions, you’re being reactive to what other people or the market is doing. If you own Intel, let’s say, and you buy more because it’s going up and you’re on a hot streak, that addiction kicks in. When it goes down, you might sell in a panic. The more procedures you put in place, the fewer decisions you have to make, the fewer things you have to justify to clients and the fewer mistakes you’ll make.
You say neuroeconomics shows that the brain is more aroused when you’re anticipating an investment profit than when you actually get one. What a bummer! |
This new idea tells us that expecting an outcome is emotionally much more intense than experiencing the same outcome. And that’s true both on the upside and the downside. The fear of loss usually turns out to be worse than the actual loss, which is why so many clients take less risk than they should.
What if anticipation about an investment outcome generates wild excitement in an advisor? |
A simple solution is to keep an emotional journal. Once a day, religiously, make a little note about your gut feelings as to where the financial markets are headed, such as, “How do I feel about my portfolios today? I’m really happy about how things went. It makes me feel good.”
Every once in a while, take a look at what your emotions were telling you and what happened afterward. You’ll learn that if you turn them upside-down, your own emotions are a very good guide to what’s about to happen in the markets. I don’t believe that investors or advisors can turn their emotions off. But I do believe you can learn to turn them inside-out. The way you do that is by seeing how unreliable they are. This will enable you to cure your hindsight bias and to learn that by investing in the grip of emotion, you will always get things backwards.
Is there a related phenomenon regarding clients? |
Yes, how easy or difficult things are to understand also sends a signal. For example, when investors read stock and mutual fund prospectuses with numerous pages of disclosure about every conceivable risk, what happens in their minds is a huge backfire effect. They think, “I can’t believe how much stuff is here, and I can’t understand any of it.”
How can advisors use this finding? |
The very important lesson is that if you want clients to accept something readily, make it simple, clear and compelling. If you want to turn people away from something, give them mountains of documentation. It will make them feel: this is too hard to understand, so it can’t be very good.
What can financial advisors do to try to prevent this from occurring when it comes to clients’ emotions? |
An advisor who has a long-term perspective has to make sure that everything in their office is in accord with that principle. If you’re talking to a client about holding stocks and mutual funds for five years or longer and there’s a Bloomberg terminal on your desk or CNBC playing in the background, you’ve blown it.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:19pm
Let me give a simplye example, ala Kulman jee style.
Consider an orgasm(sorry but needed it seriously to explain this, my apologies).
Till the last moment, it feels as if one is on ninth heaven.
Now, focus and think how you feel just after 5 minutes of finishing it. You are back to ground zero from the ninth heaven within minutes.
That is exactly what happens when one is expecting BIG money(before or***m) and after he GETS the BIG money!!(after or***m)
Admin jee may take appropriate steps, if message found to be out of order. When Buffett jee can use words like "sex" in his sermons, I thought chalo...let's follow the MASTER
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2008 at 3:18pm
When asked what keeps most individual investors from succeeding, Graham had a concise answer: “The primary cause of failure is that they pay too much attention to what the stock market is doing currently.”
Excerpted from Jason Zweig's commentary on chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2008 at 11:40pm
Neuro-economics has revealed another crucial aspect of how the investing brain works: expectation is more powerful than experience.
In general, anticipating a gain is much more emotionally intense than
earning that gain - and expecting to lose money feels even worse than
losing it turns out to be. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Lets take the IPO of Reliance Power as an example.
Expectation is building up. In anticipation of a gain. Has anyone even considered the opportunity cost ? Forget the downside risk ?
Who is actually gaining ? The Investor or the Promoter ? (Hint : Follow the money.)
Simple. The one who ends up with the money.
The other will end up with experience. 
Time will tell .
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2008 at 9:47am
When there is a conflict between Will and Imagination, it is the latter that always wins...
Companies and their promoters should be more 'Will' oriented rather than Imagination...
Unfortunately, these days Visionary promoters are more Imagination oriented and people seem to like their painted rosy pictures or 'khayali pulao'
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Posted By: rohitjairaj
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2008 at 4:56pm
Originally posted by Mohan
Lets take the IPO of Reliance Power as an example.
Expectation is building up. In anticipation of a gain. Has anyone even considered the opportunity cost ? Forget the downside risk ?
Who is actually gaining ? The Investor or the Promoter ? (Hint : Follow the money.)
Simple. The one who ends up with the money.
The other will end up with experience. 
Time will tell .
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Fantastic Mohanji! Great way to put things to perspective...
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 07/Apr/2008 at 12:17pm
‘Men Take Bigger Financial Risks When Shown Erotic Images’ A new brain-scan study may help explain what’s going on in the minds of
financial titans when they take risky monetary gambles—s*x. When young
men were shown erotic pictures, they were more likely to make a larger
financial gamble than if they were shown a picture of something scary,
such a snake, or something neutral, such as a stapler, new researchers
suggests. The arousing pictures lit up the same part of the brain that
lights up when financial risks are taken.
“You have a need in
an evolutionary sense for both money and women. They trigger the same
brain area,” said Camelia Kuhnen, a Northwestern University finance
professor who conducted the study with a Stanford University
psychologist.
Stanford psychologist Brian Knutson, a lead author of the study, says it’s all about the
power of emotion and arousal and our financial decisions. The
results of the study jibe with the real life on the trading floor, said
Phil Flynn, a former Chicago commodities floor trader and current
analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. “When you talk about all the euphemisms
for trading (on the floor), they can be used for sex as well.”
It’s
part of a new but growing field called neuroeconomics that attempts to
take the hard-wired science of brain biology and mix it with the softer
sciences of psychology and economics to figure out why we make the
financial decisions we do.
Source: http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Client.asp?Daily=TOIPU&login=default&Enter=true&Skin=TOI&GZ=T&AW=1207547359765 - TOI-Pune, Pg 16
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These things partly explain strange behaviour of Investment Bankers, CFOs who played Fx derivatives game on the pretext of hedging, and of course many Mungerilals.
As the saying goes....it's all in the mind! Having said that, I received sms few days ago:
A man who goes to sleep with problem in mind, wakes up with a solution in hand.
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But with this sub-prime, CDOs & entire derivatives mess.....we need to twist that message like this: A man who goes to sleep with solution in mind, wakes up with a problem in hand.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/Jul/2008 at 11:24pm
Economist has this interesting write up...
The endowment effect
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11579107 - It’s
mine, I tell you
professional
market traders are often reluctant to sell investments they already hold, even
though they could trade them for assets they would prefer to invest in if
starting from scratch.
Other
“irrational” phenomena include confirmation bias (searching for or interpreting
information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions), the bandwagon effect
(doing things because others do them) and framing problems (when the conclusion
reached depends on the way the data are presented). All in all, the rational
conclusion is that humans are irrational animals. |
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2008 at 11:33am
Interesting brief write up on dopamine & neuroeconomics...
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2008/07/20/stories/2008072050901300.htm - Why birthdays are depressing
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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