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arjun
Newbie
Joined: 07/Jan/2011
Location: India
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Posts: 17
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   Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 10:08am |
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well said! one should not get carried away by just looking at the immediate past!
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shontou
Senior Member
Joined: 04/Aug/2011
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 865
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 10:36am |
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Great insightful article Basant ji. Helped removed a lot of doubts from my mind.
Just to add one more factor in favour of domestic oriented consumer stocks is their immunity from currency fluctuation.
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Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday?
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Kautilya
Senior Member
Joined: 08/Feb/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 459
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 11:02am |
Originally posted by shontou
Just to add one more factor in favour of domestic oriented consumer stocks is their immunity from currency fluctuation. |
Some of these domestic oriented companies, like Dabur, Godrej Consumer and Marico have made acquisitions overseas and thereby have dollar loans. I do not know if this matters so much.
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My indecision is final.
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RSS4245
Groupie
Joined: 29/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 53
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 11:09am |
Superb write up Basant ji 
I think sooner or later Fund managers/Analysts will understand this & till that time Teddies will keep on accumulating consumption stocks....
This is where teddies have an edge over others like always....  |
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FUNDOOSEARCH
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wiseowl
Senior Member
Joined: 04/Mar/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 295
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 11:21am |
Originally posted by basant
Hence the kind of success that TheEquityDesk has generated for all its members through their collective debate and reasoning especially relating to the investment potential of consumer stocks is extraordinarily phenomenal. Most of the consumer names here have been up by four to twenty times over the last 2 years even while the broad market has done almost nothing!
Taleb would call this a random event and if it is that so be it.
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Actually, I consider it more akin to what Buffett calls "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville".
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You alone are responsible for your actions.
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rajnsharma
Senior Member
Joined: 31/Jul/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1202
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 11:31am |
Originally posted by manish_okhade
Each boom looks very obvious when it starts. Trick is get in and out if one has the guts to spot the trend. Few past fiasco:
1) Internet boom - Eyeball ration, easy to get rrillion dollar and so on...
2) Infra boom - wasn't it so obvious like consumption theme? India still has a long way to go for power, road etc. but music seems to have completely stopped.
Now new theme is consumption, it is still in its infacy will grow young and later die old too so if thats the prognosis then time to run with this baby before it does. |
Very valid points Manish. I feel the key to identifying these issues is valuations. One should never loose sight of it. Like in both internet and infra boom it was all hypothetical calculation based on future earnings. One has to be cautious when too much of future earnings are built in the price.
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Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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nikrod12
Senior Member
Joined: 15/Jun/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 608
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Posted: 12/Oct/2011 at 11:50am |
Great article Basantji...  . I am too inexperienced to comment but hats off to TED for identifying the theme. Let us ride it, be cautious and help ourselves wlth collective wisdom of all TEDies.
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tejas.k
Senior Member
Joined: 07/Dec/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 563
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Posted: 13/Oct/2011 at 12:05pm |
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as always great post basantji.
manish had made a very good point. i wonder why all of a sudden most of the consumer stocks got rerated. ( because everyone knows these are evergreen and and not very capital intensive). subu also highlighted the stagnant stock price of TTK etc till 2009. do you think investors realized the potential of consumer stocks because of the recession in 2009?.. i think one cant attribute it to the raising per capital income. because if that were the case, rerating should have happened from early 2000 itself..
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