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nikhil090
Senior Member
Joined: 06/Nov/2006
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Posts: 1344
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   Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:17pm |
Originally posted by Monkey
I think it should not be too difficult to recognise bubble, though not bubble top. Signs could be historically high valuations for broad market, indexes creating record highs very often, huge divergence from 200 DMA and behaviour of people around you.
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.
So, bubble needs to wait!! 
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But can the bubble happen in particular stories? Like IT in 1999-2000 and consumption for 2011-12-13-14????
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kumarn
Senior Member
Joined: 20/Oct/2009
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Posts: 151
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:07pm |
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Or, in a particular stock? Jubilant comes to my mind. It's current mcap is bigger than its parent, it seems.
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kumarn
Senior Member
Joined: 20/Oct/2009
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Posts: 151
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:09pm |
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Basant ji, I have a question, if you would be kind enough to answer. What are your thoughts on combining trading with long term investment - that is, can we trade on a stock that we are betting on the long term?
Has anyone else on this forum tried it? What has been your experience.
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Mohan
Senior Member
Joined: 09/Feb/2007
Location: United States
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Posts: 1855
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:35pm |
Golden words to remember.
Originally posted by basant
Thank you, as I say ideas can be borrowed or even stolen but not conviction that makes investing even more difficult then it actually is.
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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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somu0915
Senior Member
Joined: 25/Nov/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 703
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 11:13pm |
Originally posted by Monkey
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic. |
What you are doing is the famous Peter Lynch cocktail party theory. It is very practical and I have experienced it many times myself.
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bail.aswal
Newbie
Joined: 29/Jun/2011
Location: India
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Posts: 8
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:12am |
Originally posted by somu0915
Originally posted by Monkey
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic. |
What you are doing is the famous Peter Lynch cocktail party theory.It is very practical and I have experienced it many times myself.
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I read that Broking companies are making losses. Even RJ promoted Alchemy closed its broking arm recentely.
Can we say that, when broking companies start making profit, bubble builds up 
Edited by bail.aswal - 05/Jul/2011 at 9:14am
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bhowman
Groupie
Joined: 16/Apr/2010
Location: India
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Posts: 48
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:13am |
More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I [[/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]
Well said Basantji.
In my case, I was holding HDIL too long and saw it crumbling from 1400 levels to around 100.
Again I became panicky when SATYAM was hovering around 20 levels and I sold it for 18.
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That which is so far is actually so near.
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tigershark
Senior Member
Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:17am |
in an inflationary environment consumption and fmcg companies have the ability to raise prices and thus protect their margins which the mkt has discounted ,now that inflation may come down and interest rates start coming down beaten down stocks in the capex cycle may start outperforming and the consumption and fmcg stocks may have a more sedate time.so would it make sense to invest in good quality stocks in the capex cycle?has that time come?
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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