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basant
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   Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 5:40pm |
Thank you, as I say ideas can be borrowed or even stolen but not conviction that makes investing even more difficult then it actually is. It is easy to buy a stock at the right time but somehow I have realised that one has to let go off the stuff at the opportune time as well Warren Buffett worked in an environemet where stocks were not discounting 40% CAGR hence the issues of getting out at the right time did not bother him as much as it would to investors in emerging markets. More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I wish I could have put some more sense into this statement but that is what makes me paranoid and keeps me in the world of educated guesswork if ever that can be of some help.
Originally posted by rinkumalpani
Originally posted by basant
and maybe at the right opportune time fold the cards and go to the next table something which not many have been able to do.
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Congrats and thanks Basantji. Anybody who had conviction enough in you/TED( in the early days of TED) and have tried to utilise whatever one has learned on TED,should still be amongst the winners even if he does not identify the ooportune time and gets a bit early/late.The trick will always be to identify the next possible winning table in the early stages when the seats/chairs are cheap and empty and nobody understands that trick better than you. so, please do hint towards the table. The able teddies, am sure, will surely find a chair for themselves.
Thanking you once again
Malpani
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Edited by basant - 05/Jul/2011 at 5:41pm
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zulfi
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 5:58pm |
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hi sir , y voltas has been so laggard .pls share your views
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prabhakarkudva
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 6:37pm |
Originally posted by basant
More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I wish I could have put some more sense into this statement but that is what makes me paranoid and keeps me in the world of educated guesswork if ever that can be of some help. |
Bubbles can rarely be analyzed by PEs and valuation excesses but the tops (or bottoms) can be evaluated reasonably well by the behavior of the people around you, don't you think?
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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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rajnsharma
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 6:58pm |
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva
Originally posted by basant
More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I wish I could have put some more sense into this statement but that is what makes me paranoid and keeps me in the world of educated guesswork if ever that can be of some help. |
Bubbles can rarely be analyzed by PEs and valuation excesses but the tops (or bottoms) can be evaluated reasonably well by the behavior of the people around you, don't you think? |
I am no expert in finding tops but one should have a comfort level with the price. I you can't think of buying at those valuation, start counting the days when you need to sell. At the end of the day peaceful sleep is most important of all 
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Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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subu76
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 8:36pm |
Originally posted by basant
More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. |
Basant Sir...Golden words but unfathomable. Please elaborate a bit more when convinient.
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Monkey
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:07pm |
I think it should not be too difficult to recognise bubble, though not bubble top. Signs could be historically high valuations for broad market, indexes creating record highs very often, huge divergence from 200 DMA and behaviour of people around you.
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.
So, bubble needs to wait!! 
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nikhil090
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:08pm |
Originally posted by basant
More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I wish I could have put some more sense into this statement but that is what makes me paranoid and keeps me in the world of educated guesswork if ever that can be of some help.
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Basantjee, Would there be any way to identify the bubbles as and when it happens OR will it be easy to get swayed by "sustainable" consumption boom and all news flow? I really hope that nothing reaches 100 times PE as Infy of 2000 as then despite solid growth returns will be muted for couple of years.
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rdyn
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Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:11pm |
Originally posted by Monkey
I think it should not be too difficult to recognise bubble, though not bubble top. Signs could be historically high valuations for broad market, indexes creating record highs very often, huge divergence from 200 DMA and behaviour of people around you.
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.
So, bubble needs to wait!!
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My aim is to read each and every post on TED!
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