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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Topic: PAGE vs EXIDE – Which business is good?
    Posted: 08/Jun/2011 at 5:20pm

Qualitative:

1)      Both the businesses are essential for human being. We need kachcha as well battery both routinely.

2)      Both businesses are repetitive and leaders in their area

Quantitative:

The great master mentioned in 2007 AR that the great business is the one which need small amount of working capital to generate big amount of profit.  See’s Candy is one such business.

Page Industry:

Data point for FY07-FY10

Net Current Assets

54.5

40.96

56.7

68.32

Net Profit

17.03

23.82

31.63

39.61

NP/NCA

31.25%

58.15%

55.78%

57.98%

RoE

18.30%

20.79%

24.57%

25.76%

 

Exide Industry:

Data point for FY07-FY10

Net Current Assets

120.32

256.11

214.04

259.9

Net Profit

155.21

250.33

284.39

537.09

NP/NCA

129.00%

97.74%

132.87%

206.65%

RoE

18.39%

25.15%

20.67%

34.26%

 

Now what above data shows?

First, generated profit on working capital is far more in case of EXIDE to Page. Page is a growing business hence they require probably some investment in assets too which is reducing the NP/NCA metrics.

Second let’s check how the return is over net tangible assets or Book Value.  RoE is way ahead of Page in case of EXIDE. On top of that growth rate too is on average ahead of Page.

In spite of all above market values newcomer Page more than EXIDE.  Am i wrong in above interpretation or market is crazy for new thing, TEDs to decide?

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Catalyst
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Quote Catalyst Replybullet Posted: 08/Jun/2011 at 5:52pm
ROE of Page is much higher in excess of 40%, Growth rate for Page is also high.
 
Moreover if you need to buy a battery and if exide is not available, its very likely that the customer would settle for alternate brand such as Amaron, While it seems very unlikely in case of Katcha.
 
And with a katcha brand lot of brand extensions are possible which can help in growth and the company can also use lot of marketing gimmicks like one-for-one free, end-of-season sale types.
 
Lastly, these two businesses are not comparable, as Page is more of a marketing driven (read perception) business, while Exide is more of a distribution driven business(it has to be there when the customer needs it, else the customer is gone), while in case of Page customer can afford to wait...
 
What’s Euphoria, think of it as obscenity. Though its probably impossible to formulate a test for Obscenity but you know when you see it.
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 08/Jun/2011 at 6:16pm
Originally posted by Catalyst

ROE of Page is much higher in excess of 40%, Growth rate for Page is also high.
 
Check youself Profit Margin and NP growth rates for past 5 years.
 
Page Growth Rates:
 
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Total Income 138.67 196.83 261.04 344.24 491.56
    41.94% 32.62% 31.87% 42.80%
Net Profit 17.03 23.82 31.63 39.61 58.54
39.87% 32.79% 25.23% 47.79%
PM 12.28% 12.10% 12.12% 11.51% 11.91%
 
EXIDE Growth Rates:
 
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Total Income 1,879.70 2,851.38 3,399.49 3,806.11 4,657.44
    51.69% 19.22% 11.96% 22.37%
Net Profit 155.21 250.33 284.39 537.09 666.36
  61.28% 13.61% 88.86% 24.07%
PM 8.26% 8.78% 8.37% 14.11% 14.31%
 
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 10/Jun/2011 at 8:15am

Manish, IMO this is an excellent way of looking at companies. If nothing else it forces us to look at companies as a whole. Relative valuation rocks. Clap

 
On this specific point i'd like to point out Multiple issues which is not captured by the numbers:
On Business models:
 
1. Page is a much smaller company than Excide. (2000 cr vs 13,000 cr)
2. Page is at a baby stage in terms of it's evolution and Excide is middle aged
3. From a high level Page topline is probabily much less cyclical than Excide
4. Catalyst's points above around the business models. Which company has the potential to introduce new products to drive sales?
5. Much easier to call out threats to Excide than to Page.
6. Which company can raise prices easily?
 
 
On Pricing:
1. Page isn't cheap at 30 PE but who says Excide is dirt cheap at 20 PE
 
To me .....Excide seems to be a company where you need to time a good purchase price while Page seems to be an all weather company.
 
Here's a test for you...
 
If you have to put your entire life time saving on one of the two and you can't withdraw it for the next 20 years which one would that be?


Edited by subu76 - 10/Jun/2011 at 8:34am
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 10/Jun/2011 at 10:05am
add to the above the replacement cycle(turnover) is much higher in page than in exide.i bought a new freedom battery a week back and the co salesperson told me not to come back for at least 5yrs!
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 11/Jun/2011 at 7:52pm
Originally posted by subu76

 
If you have to put your entire life time saving on one of the two and you can't withdraw it for the next 20 years which one would that be?
 
I am happy that you like the approach. Regarding your above question, i prefer to put my entire life saving in EXIDE as compared to PAGE. Reason is simple though Page looks rewarding but it may saturate out or new competition will kill it in next 4-5 years. Page is a branding game while EXIDE is more of mix of technology, back end integration, distribution network and relationship mgmt. EXIDE's competitiors will always be there but they will require more time to catch with above attributes as compared to Page. Moreover as evident from my posting that EXIDE is much ahead of financial efficiency wrt Page so it worths to inevest in EXIDE than page when the window is of 20 years!
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Quote wildandfree Replybullet Posted: 11/Jun/2011 at 8:30pm
Can you please compare the size of opportunity also for Exide vis-a-vis Page ?
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 11/Jun/2011 at 10:53pm
Originally posted by wildandfree

Can you please compare the size of opportunity also for Exide vis-a-vis Page ?
 
Looks same, those who buy Page products also sit in the vehicles running on EXIDE batteries Wink.
 
But there is one very big difference here, Kachcha replacement can wait but Battery replacement can NOT wait LOL
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