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prabhakarkudva
Senior Member
Joined: 16/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1624
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   Topic: Is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala a Black Swan?
Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 5:18pm |
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RJ bets on:
1. A favorable underlying trend
2. A business model that can scale
He makes enough of these bets and then lets the probabilities decide the final outcome.Also he has super-human patience,which i feel is often overlooked.He can hold on to stocks like Delta corp for more than 10 years with the price hardly moving.
If one wants to emulate RJ emulate his complete listed portfolio and in the same weight that he holds it in.Dont put your money on his individual bets.His track record in the last five-six years (apart from pantaloon) has not been great(atleast till now).But the thing about RJ is that one pick like pantaloon offsets all the bad ones.So he is a man of probability and i personally believe RJ himself is a black swan.
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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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India_Bull
Senior Member
Joined: 19/Sep/2006
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2296
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 12:04pm |
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Offlate RJ is doing extremely well , KRBL,VIP and Orchid has given stupendous returns . Well it's not that what RJ picks up always go up example- Voiceroy hotel, aptech? Anyways what I am keen to watch is if this stock sustains the selling pressure due to the negative views coming from all corners and crosses major resistance of 120 which would take~zoom this stock beyond our imagination....
Edited by India_Bull - 09/Nov/2010 at 12:05pm
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India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
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excel_monkey
Senior Member
Joined: 17/Nov/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1281
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 2:57am |
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Rakesh bhai is no Warren Buffet
he is Warren Buffet + crookedness
Even Ramesh Damani put a disclaimer that his office trades in the stock along with his recommendation
why the f**k is he recommending some thing in which he might trade against his followers
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Kabootar
Senior Member
Joined: 12/Jul/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 461
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 3:26am |
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that's vested interest for you...
they dont have any obligation towards our wellbeing.
I remember watching RJ being asked by an investor about any stocks he could recommend on a UTV special show some months back. He said since tomorrow I wont be calling you up and tell you to exit, I wont name any companies now!
Edited by Kabootar - 09/Nov/2010 at 3:49am
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Verbal diarrhoea! A most deadly disease.
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tigershark
Senior Member
Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 7:58am |
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to me the compounders that rj has bought out of the many stocks he holds are titan, crisil, lupin,and kvb.
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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prabhakarkudva
Senior Member
Joined: 16/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1624
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 7:59am |
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Even the initial capital that RJ built up was on some leveraged trading bet which could have gone either way.
But this discussion takes nothing away from the big man.What matters finally is whether you have made money and managed to keep it.The discussion is about his style,the fact that he achieved alpha by investing in companies that could have gone either way.He took his chances and he succeeded.If you ask him to start over again it is debatable if he'll be able to repeat his success or not while someone like buffett most definitely can.
All said and done he is a successful investor today and he deserves all the bouquets he receives.
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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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tigershark
Senior Member
Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 8:19am |
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Buffet buys a great recepie when the chips are down RJ hopes that the cooks will make a great recepie with what they have got.obiviously the risks of not turning right are higher in the latter and thats clear from their portfolios.where RJ scores over big B is his ability to create huge amounts of capital from trading bets, whereas B got capital form his investments(insurancefloats)
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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mane.ramesh
Senior Member
Joined: 08/Apr/2010
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 301
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Posted: 09/Nov/2010 at 9:21am |
RJ is following "Churchi/lGeorge soros" advice of "many small losses and few big gains"
So RJ is not blackswan but smart investor/trader who is following this advice.I am damn sure even WB cannot say with 100% that particular company is going to be big. As Livermore says "long tem investent itself is gambling". Even transparent promoters cannot say where will be there company after 5 years as output is determined by so many random factors which are not predictable. Even
transparent promoters cannot say where will be there company after 5
years as output is determined by so many random factors which are not
predictable. < id="gwProxy" ="">< ="if(of(jsCall)==''){jsCall();}else{setTimeout('jsCall()',500);}" id="jsProxy" ="">
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