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Bullion - Wil it come back in demand?
 The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Commodities - Gurus call it the best hedge in current times :Bullion - Wil it come back in demand?
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MissingLink
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Quote MissingLink Replybullet Topic: Gold Bullion: Are we in the cyclical bull run
    Posted: 27/Feb/2009 at 9:52am
Central Bankers are in a Money Printing spree leading many investors to move into Gold. So is Gold the best bet for the next decade
Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
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MissingLink
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Quote MissingLink Replybullet Posted: 27/Feb/2009 at 9:53am
Let me start of with the following article regarding demand supply for gold for 2009

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2009/0226.html
Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
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jainsumit3
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Quote jainsumit3 Replybullet Posted: 11/Mar/2009 at 3:11pm
So sir where do u c gold from now (900$)were it has corrected around 20$ yesturday
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MissingLink
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Quote MissingLink Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2009 at 10:00pm
Originally posted by jainsumit3

So sir where do u c gold from now (900$)were it has corrected around 20$ yesturday


Sumitji,
I cant predict gold price on a daily basis. I can only tell you that in the long run fiat money loses its buying power and classically it has been observed that in a recession/depression commodities have done well.
Also if you go by Jim Roger's statements that Equity Bull run was over in 2000 and commodities cycle has started from 2000 then Gold should do well.

The below graph shows the gold sales pattern for the past 4-5 years.
http://www.iaconoresearch.com/BlogImages/09-03-24d_gold_demand.png

The%20image%20“http://www.iaconoresearch.com/BlogImages/09-03-24d_gold_demand.png”%20cannot%20be%20displayed,%20because%20it%20contains%20errors.


Gold prices is artifically kept low by various govts (by leasing and selling). This creates a perception of lack of demand for the metal. But once people ask for delivery of Gold, defaults start happening and gold prices rise.

So going by the above chart we see that the actual demand for physical gold is going up. This only goes to prove that people dont believe in Gold futures. If the trend continues then the price of gold has to go up.




Edited by MissingLink - 26/Mar/2009 at 10:01pm
Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2009 at 10:07pm
Hey, out of 3500 tonnes does India import 1000 tonnes and if so what happens if indians stop buying gold jewellery but recycle the same from their old inventory how can gold stay high in that case?
 
ETF is one section but the bigger part is the jewellery!
 
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2009 at 3:08am
A lot of the run up in the price of gold is due to the inflation fears and future uncertainty. With markets around the world rallying money will move out of gold into other markets.
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Quote MissingLink Replybullet Posted: 28/Mar/2009 at 9:15am
Originally posted by basant

Hey, out of 3500 tonnes does India import 1000 tonnes and if so what happens if indians stop buying gold jewellery but recycle the same from their old inventory how can gold stay high in that case?
 
ETF is one section but the bigger part is the jewellery!
 
 
 
few things...
 
(1) What if the gold manipulation is actually true and the large banks have shorted the gold on NYMEX and may be forced to cover up their short positions ? wouldn't the price go up ?
 
(2) Black swans are always there. Nassim Taleb says look for grey swans. For me Dollar collapse is a grey swan. A devaluation of dollar will lead to the following 2 conditions...
 
     2.1 price of gold goes up because gold is valued in dollars (alas it should have been other way round but never the less...).
 
     2.2 Countries/people run towards gold for shelter till the currency issue is resolved. 
     
 
 
(3) Prices have been kept low because of constant shorting of gold by central banks. BOE infact has already sold bulk of its gold. Now imagine a scenario where the central banks start buying back gold...
 
 
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1654931.ece (a 2007 article on the furor on BOE/UK selling it gold reserves and china having supposedly bought it).
 
Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
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MissingLink
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Quote MissingLink Replybullet Posted: 28/Mar/2009 at 9:18am
Originally posted by Mohan

A lot of the run up in the price of gold is due to the inflation fears and future uncertainty. With markets around the world rallying money will move out of gold into other markets.
 
 
A market rally cannot deny the fact that FED has bought $1 trillion worth of debt and monitized it.
Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Not Matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if thats what you are seeking.
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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