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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Topic: How to play the insurance boom in India?
    Posted: 19/Aug/2006 at 4:17pm
I believe we would see a lot of Insurance IPO'S in 2008, as from what i know, they have to list by then. If i am wrong.. Plz correct me.. But when the licences were given to private insurance company's given, this was in the terms and conditions.. Some of them are listed in an indirect way Including. HDFC, ICICI, MAX, BAJAJ and i think Royal Sundaram
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 19/Aug/2006 at 4:35pm
Yes, Insurance could be huge but no way to play them directly except for Max india. Sundaram is more into general insurance which is not as remmeunerative as life. Also general insurance is a longer term play.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 19/Aug/2006 at 5:21pm

Insurance is a great business. The master (Warren Buffet) made his money by converting an old textile company (Berkshire Hathway)into an Insurance major. Some piquant features about the Insurance business is:

 

1) Money comes first and payments are made later

2) No debtor problems

3) Free cash flows

4) No capex cycle

5) No replacement of fixed assets

 

Insurance is all about probabilities and all Indian companies have made foreign collaborations. these foreign partners would help in bringing their skills to the table.

 

The best way to play insurance is through the focused players like:

Max India – MaxNew York Life

Aditya Birla Nuvo – Birla Sunlife

Sundaram Finance – Royal Sundaram

Kotak Mahindra - Om Kotak Life

 

Except for Max none of the players are focused but if insurance their grows the contribution to the company's bottom-line could be significant.

 

The other players like HDFC and ICICI have a very small percentage of their income coming through insurance so any growth in this business will not adequately reflected in their EPS.

 

A very surprising choice could be Pantaloon retail. Their JV with Italia Generali could become huge. Generali is ranked 21st in the list of 500 companies and generates close to 20% of its revenues from sale of policies at Malls. They have tested this concept in  The best part with the Generali venture is that while Pantaloon paid Rs 100 crores for a 74% stake Generali paid the same amount for a 26% stake.

 

In Fy 08 Pantaloon expects to have 300 million visitors at its malls. Even if the company is able to convert 0.5% of them it should sell around 1.5 million policies. At an average premium of Rs 15,000 this would work out to Rs 2250 crores of insurance premium. That would place it among the top five insurers in the country. The market cap of the company is Rs 4000 crores.

 

There are a lot of ifs and buts in the above statements but errors should cancel out each other suppose the conversion rate is lower then maybe the annual premium will be higher and so on. Like all other companies these are additional kickers that set in once business rolls through and the company is also not dependent on this business .But this is a niche way of selling policies and should gather steam.

 



Edited by basant - 19/Aug/2006 at 5:42pm
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Quote reetesh Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 8:57pm
Mr. Basant, what about Reiacne Capital , I think it Reliance Insurance is in it, please correct me if I am wrong? And braod sense because one day Anil will make this into a full financial services company your view on this..
 
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 9:12pm
You are right Reetesh jee. I have been holding Rel Cap since past 7 years, saw it dip below 50% of my cost but fortunately have not sold it. I have high hopes on this basically on account of following:
1. Non-life insurance
2. Retail stock broking (novel concept like pre-paid cards for broking), use of their WebWorlds as outlets etc.
3. New foray into Life insurance
4. Its investment portfolio
5. Mutual fund distribution biz
 
In the recent Tarapore Committee on CAC, it was suggested that large biz houses be given banking licence. It is rumoured that Rel Capital is eyeing for the same very aggresively.
It is likely that this company might be Berkshire-Hathway of India, what say Basantjee?
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 9:12pm
Reliance capital is great value. I have not done an indepth calculation recently but the value of holdings should be Rs 200 per share. So we cannot value this company on PE. This stock surely has the power to
go a long way.
 
They are into Asset management in a big way. the best part about an AMC is as more money flows into the fund the AMC gets wealthier. they take their fees as a part of theoverall assets.Their brokerage business will give all the broketrs a run for their money (clients). Kotak has already responded by cutting down brokerage rates.
 
Reliance is into general Insurance which is a very long term story. people have to sink in money for years to break even.Life insurance is the place to be in.
 
In Insurance I would go with HDFC or ICICI or AB Nuvo but Reliance capital is a good stock to own but not the best if one wants to play insurance.


Edited by basant - 07/Sep/2006 at 9:18pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 9:19pm
About insurance, can we look at Exide in view of their ING Vyasa Insurance holding?
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Quote reetesh Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 9:29pm

What % of holding does HDFC and HDFC bank has in HDFC life and which one is better if we want to take a view on LIFE insurance. 

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