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aloksahi1971
Senior Member
Joined: 20/Aug/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 390
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   Topic: Commodities---Stop Loss!!!
Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 1:23pm |
I want to share my experience with regard to commodities here and God willing with the help of Basant Sir and othe knowledgable people understand investing beter.
On reading Jim Roger I decided commodities will have to be learnt by me.After oppening the accont in the lack of any formal trg. I turned to Commodities control for SMS with regard to the commodities. Result my copus of Rs 75000/ has depleted to Rs 45000/ all due to the 85% times the stop is trigered.
Where can I get the charts for the commodities and instead of trading can one be an investor ( no not buy and hold Gold) in the trerms of understanding tamentals behind the movement of the commodities prices.
Losses and profits are huge due to the margin factor.
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Janak.merchant1
Senior Member
Joined: 14/Jan/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 364
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 2:07pm |
Originally posted by aloksahi1971
I want to share my experience with regard to commodities here and God willing with the help of Basant Sir and othe knowledgable people understand investing beter.
On reading Jim Roger I decided commodities will have to be learnt by me.After oppening the accont in the lack of any formal trg. I turned to Commodities control for SMS with regard to the commodities. Result my copus of Rs 75000/ has depleted to Rs 45000/ all due to the 85% times the stop is trigered.
Where can I get the charts for the commodities and instead of trading can one be an investor ( no not buy and hold Gold) in the trerms of understanding tamentals behind the movement of the commodities prices.
Losses and profits are huge due to the margin factor.
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Speculation is very very unhealthy and unwealthy. Capital can get wiped off very easily. You just have to pick up phone and do silly things.
Be very careful with what you are doing. Speculation seems to be easy option to make money. And it is also easiest way to the poorhouse for people who do not know what they are doing. Many MBAs and so called intellectuals also have also burnt their fingers trying to make easy money in commodity speculation. Except one person whom i do not know personally, but have met, I do not know of anybody in India, who has made big money speculating.
Focus on your career. Be productive. Become knowledgeable.
Just my thoughts. And of cource, I am just echoing what one of my good friend was advising-telling me yesterday.
JM
Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 12/Apr/2008 at 2:19pm
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I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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tigershark
Senior Member
Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 3:10pm |
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jim rogers runs a fund if you still love commodities get in touch with his fund do a google search and you will get it
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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aloksahi1971
Senior Member
Joined: 20/Aug/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 390
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 5:34pm |
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No Sirs, you get me wrong I am least interested in speculation . I want to learn this Commodity stuf because it will be where the action is.
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BubbleVision
Senior Member
Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 9:16pm |
Originally posted by aloksahi1971
Where can I get the charts for the commodities and instead of trading can one be an investor ( no not buy and hold Gold) in the trerms of understanding tamentals behind the movement of the commodities prices.
Losses and profits are huge due to the margin factor.
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I usually dont like to comment on others, so I would leave the commodities control where it is. BTW, I have seen people with no stoploss giving recommendations only leading to being wiped out.
The One thing I would say about commodities, after speaking with some very sucessful commodities guys (In India and Overseas) that they have been through various booms and busts. They all agree that.....
Commodities react very sharply to prices changes in terms of demand and supply and thus, to know the market and experience it is the biggest from a "funny-mental" point of view. Very Importantly, different commodities would show different production pattern in subsequent years to the major price action.
Good Knowlegde of Economics is must, as you would have to understand the "Price Elasiticity" theory and also the "Law of Diminishing returns and Marginal utility". The latter comes more in Agro commodities and the former applies to the base metals pack broadly.
RE Charts: For the base metals pack, I use www.basemetals.com chart package apart from the one on Reuters. Both are paid. Base metals is the cheaper one and would be recommended for base metals and precious metals. RTRS is only for one who can afford, however it has much much much more than just charts. Both are real time chart pack's. For static charts see www.kitcometals.com . IF you want charts, I would recommend www.basemetals.com. They have a 7 day free trial. Try it to see it.
Re Losses: As traders, we need to be realistic about what is happening...not what "should" happen or make excuses for choices made. My choice is to favor the market in the long run...and take the price action as a confirmation of sorts. Importantly, learn to reenter the market even after one has been stopped once (and one was the last guy to get stopped before the market moves in the "Expected" direction again). Lack of re-entry courage is the biggest burden which I see on most guys.
Manish Dave ji...please add over here.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 11:19pm |
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Apart from knowledge of various geo-political, demand-supply metrics, what is really needed is the emotional discipline in such trading. Besides risk management is another area where people commit mistakes.
Very very few people adhere to the discipline & hence very few traders make money on a consistent basis.
Edited by kulman - 12/Apr/2008 at 11:28pm
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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manishdave
Senior Member
Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1371
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 7:25am |
Bubbble and Kulmanjee has explined most. One needs to do homework on geo-political, demand/supply, price elasticity, substutes, emergence of new application, how fast can production grow, input costs, union actions, what currency you make trade in, price difference in diff mkt.
Now if you consider all this factors it looks like as difficult as shooting a moving object. But you don't need to keep on shooting. Wait for the object to come closer to you and speed is very slow(margin of safety), you can shoot it then. You also need to be very very careful using margin. It is upto individuals so I won't go into specifics.
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BubbleVision
Senior Member
Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
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Posted: 12/Apr/2008 at 8:37am |
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1
Speculation is very very unhealthy and unwealthy. Capital can get wiped off very easily. You just have to pick up phone and do silly things.
Be very careful with what you are doing. Speculation seems to be easy option to make money. And it is also easiest way to the poorhouse for people who do not know what they are doing. Many MBAs and so called intellectuals also have also burnt their fingers trying to make easy money in commodity speculation. Except one person whom i do not know personally, but have met, I do not know of anybody in India, who has made big money speculating.
Focus on your career. Be productive. Become knowledgeable.
JM
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Janak bhai....some call it speculation and others call it "Research", and descipline, and importantly have the coimmitment to believe in the research.
Afterall, we are in the business of "Anticipating the anticipation of others". One has to be proactive along with reactive to make money in the markets.
The Sad part of the markets is not the hardwork does not always pay off, as one could make a mistake in risk management. So to make money, one has to get the complete puzzle picture correct, rather than leaving only leaving only one cell in the wrong place to get the wrong picture.
Rembember....Markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
Thus, I completly support the availability of a second career option, just if the need be. Good Educational Qualication is the most important in my view.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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