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tarkeshwar
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Quote tarkeshwar Replybullet Topic: Pitfalls of investing in a high PE stock.
    Posted: 07/Nov/2007 at 10:36am
Infy hitting 52-wk low may have a lesson for us i.e. not to buy expensive (high pe) companies. The tide may turn anytime and high pe stocks would be  most to suffer.
This may be a debatable statement to make and I may have to do  deeper analysis but :) I wonder why expensive companies like Pantaloon, TV18 appear on the TED XI, when most TEDdies seem to have Buffett, Lynch and Graham as their inspirations. Do we have examples of these role models ever buying a stock with pe > 50?

Let me quote Lynch from "One Up.." p.170:
"If you remember nothing else about p/e ratios, remember to avoid stocks with excessively high one. You'll save yourself a lot of grief and a lot of money if you do. With few exceptions, an extremely high p/e is a handicap to a stock...
In 1972, McDonalds was the same great company it had always been but the stock was bid to p/e of 50. There was no way that McDonald's could live upto those expectations and the stock price fell..."

Is the answer the standard: "This time its different" ;) I welcome the debate.


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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Nov/2007 at 10:59am
Absolutely agree but finding the right PE is an art that no one has excelled in. I had mentioned this in my essay titled Sensex@2010 – Thoughts and Strategies that it is far easier to get carried away by the high PE companies.
 
In fact it was with this motive that I personally replaced media with private banks in my portfolio. I am not sure when the high PE stocks will crash but what I am sure is that someday sometime it would crash but whether that crash happens before we double our money or after that is something that can be answered only in time.
 
Coming to your argument on PRIL it does appear high PE but the price captures the value of all its upcoming bsuiensses whereas the earnings accrue only from its retailing forays.
 
On an asset adjusted basis the company is valiued at just 25 times Fy 09 earnings and that seems far more reasonable then taking  a blanket view on things.
 
If we can wait for a few months we would have valuation benchmarks for all its several busiensses set out as the company should be listing its various subsidiaries.All these subsidiaries have diluted stakes to private equity players so the benchmarking is easy and would be validated post the IPOs.
 
PRIL has been at that PE for about 3 years now so it is realy tough to know when to call quits.
 
I repeat "A PE derating is the most painful thing in the world after a Doctor's injection"
 
 
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 07/Nov/2007 at 11:31am
CAUSE and EFFECT. That's all. It has nothing to do with high or low PE.
 
Let's say a company is trading at a P/E of 20 - low PE by Indian standards. Because of certain factors (CAUSE), if the earnings growth outlook becomes blurry, there will be a flurry of selling (EFFECT) on this stock too - taking its P/E down to 15.
 
Examples - Some of the MNC pharma companies like Novartis/Pfizer were trading at P/E of 20 a couple of years back. Look at its P/E now.
 
Having said that, INFY/TCS hitting 52 week low has come as a big surprise to me. I have never seen these two stocks trade at  P/Es of 20 ever!
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Quote tarkeshwar Replybullet Posted: 07/Nov/2007 at 11:45am
Thanks basantji for creating this new thread. Nice article Sensex@2010 as usual :) though my thought process differs from opinions mentioned there.

  I think at any point of time, one should look at a company with fresh point of view irrespective of its history or whether one is already invested and made money out of it. If one is convinced of buying afresh compared to other choices available, then it may be justified.
 
  I think there are better risk-reward ratio companies in the market. We just need to look harder. I like  a  "Magic Formula" (Joel Greenblatt) shortlist to start with or even the worse performing companies in the larger TED list seem to be good to start with. Looking at the TED XI, somehow I feel, being the value investors we are, we need a better list.
To me, it appears to be biased towards the return it has already given than a better future risk-reward ratio.

  This is not to say that PRIL is a bad choice. I generally discard a company with high pe from further analysis. But given your points, I will take a deeper look.
  "PRIL being at similar PE for last 3 years", in my opinion, is not a good argument from value perspective.

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 12:02pm
Agree to your argument but sometiems I let investing be dictated by other reasons like spin offs subsidiary listing etc. Though that is not what Graham must have taught.
 
I did buy PRIL in the 460's a couple of months back and therefore remain invested in it.
 


Edited by basant - 08/Nov/2007 at 12:26pm
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Quote tarkeshwar Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 12:18pm
Right. CAUSEs arising in future leading to EFFECTs on prices are hard to guess. A high pe stock is a larger bet on the CAUSEs to be positive and therefore inherently more risky. Stock prices over long term are slaves of earnings, that we all know. Multiples paid of a decent estimate (say last 3 years of average earning) certainly has to do something with the inherent risk in purchase.
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 12:42pm
A high pe stock is a larger bet on the CAUSEs to be positive and therefore inherently more risky.
 
Though it sounds logical, history doesn't seem to indicate this though. Eg: INFY has fallen 30% from it's 52 week high. NOVARTIS has fallen 45% from it's 52 week high. But Of course - one example is not enough - you can always pick another example to suit your statement
 
And yes - personally, I would think twice before investing fresh money in a large cap stock which trades over 30 P/E. - but there is no real hard statistics to prove that high P/E (30 to 40) stocks are riskier than low P/E (15 to 20) stocks - in the Indian context.
 
Do we have examples of these role models ever buying a stock with pe > 50?
 
All our role models are firangis, and they haven't seen a market like ours!

 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 12:49pm
WHiule your apprensions on a PE are justified what would you tell someone in China earlier this year when their amrket was at 30 times? It is now at 55 times.
 
Samir Arora has the knack of buying high PE companies and staying with them.
 
The high PE is never the problem. The problem is the slowdown in earnings growth that high PE companies experience. Most of the time such a slow down is diffuclt to estimate.
 
I like looking at PE in reklation to the growth or PEG. Even in this case the PE should not be more then 30 times forward earnings.
 
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