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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: What happened globally will happen in India!
    Posted: 05/Aug/2006 at 9:36pm
Great to have you here Manish and do keep providing us with valuable insights. I know you invest in countries as wide and diverse as Argentina to India so you could tell us something which we normally miss. In fact I sometimes feel that an Indian investor's investing style is like a frog in a well. he just does not look outwards and he does not look outwards because he cannot invest into those countries.
 
So if water could and is a huge business in Europe & US we cannot think that companies like Mouunt Everest could some day become huge and since you guys have seen all that happen it becomes so much easier to develop conviction and make money.


Edited by basant - 06/Aug/2006 at 5:09pm
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 05/Aug/2006 at 10:29pm

Basant:

We have some disadvantages too. We can read what is happening in India but we can not SEE.  I dont follow Mt. Everest. Unfortunately I have no idea if water resource is more valuable or distribution and brand name.
 
I feel security business would be huge.
If anybody can comment on ZICOM.
 
So is courier services. I read somewhere that china's courier business grew 100 times! in probably(if I remember correctly) 10 years.
 
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 05/Aug/2006 at 10:37pm
I am unable to comprehend what you are sating mr. dave. Are you talking of water resource management or anything like that?
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 05/Aug/2006 at 10:38pm
Mt. Everest was just an example, I have no personal idea on that but Vinod Sethi ex Morgan Stanley took a position there.  ZIcom could become huge and subex systaems could grow multifold its flagship fraud management syatem product "Ranger" can find huge application in the telecom industry.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 05/Aug/2006 at 10:50pm

I cant comment on electronic secirity system, but one area where I see tremedous potential is the expansion of Air cooling services in India. I see a lot of potential for ductiling cos. like fedder Lloyd. I saw in the corporate magazine of alfa Laval, that they have the concept of district cooling in France. In India, we are still talking about Centralised air conditioning....dont you think that air refrigeration and cooling space has a lot to offer, especially companies in the service management like fedders

 

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 4:57pm

Another sector Investors could watch out for would be the nuclear energy space. worldwide a major portionn of power requirement is obtained through this route.

The Indo US nuclear treaty would take this process ane step further and companies like Areva T&D (CMP Rs 632) would be a direct beneficiary. Areva is a global leader in nuclear power generation and the chairpoerson of the company recently stated its intention to start this process in India once regulatory hurdles were lifted.
 
Others like Tata Power and Reliance Energy would also join the fray but it would makes sesne to stick with Areva.
 
Generally nuclear power projects run into Us $ 2 billion (Rs 9000 crores) and above. This means that  for a company like Areva with a market cap of Rs 2518 crores the gains could be significant.
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 07/Aug/2006 at 1:28pm

Basant,
I don't want to sound pessimistic but I have been watching and investing in Uranium stocks since last 2 years. I saw some posts mentioning low supply of silver/gold etc. But do you know where is the biggest problem. IT IS URANIUM. Now if silver price goes very high, we see less demand and some recycling as silver is not burnt . Oil is burnt but if price goes too high, people will use public transportation, less driving, use ethanol, gas etc. Now U is very intresting. Global demand is 200m pounds. Supply is only 100m pounds. This is since 1993. I know your question(where did they find rest of 100m ponds?). 1. There was draw down on inventory of power plants and most important 2. When Russia broke up, US was worried abt their nuclear arms getting sold in black mkt. Clinton admin made a deal of converting those bomb grade U into mild u for power plants. They named it "Megatons to Megawatts Program". Some people expect that supply will be done in '07. Now U is probably most inelastic metal to price. To explain it better if price of salt goes up 10 or 20 times would it matter to home budget? Its cost is just so much negligible for generating power. But than think if there is not enough supply. Somebody(and lot of them) will have to shutdown plant.

Now on demand side: There are many new plants planned. China is planning to add 1 or 2 every year. India has plan for some 24 of them. Though it takes many years to build them, no body has idea where would they get big "U".

On supply side: As in other metals, it will take years from exploration to mining to refining. But other problem with U is it is most sensitive matter due to radiation and getting all clearances take more time than any other metal.
Since Russia is minting money on oil and metal money and their Nukes inventory wend down, who knows, Putin might start building them back so even less U.

I am not worried abt the price. It is matter of getting the material at ANY PRICE.

Can you throw some light on Areva? Did the name change of that company since I am not familiar with that name so eighter must be new or name changed. Who would be benificiary - areva or parent company?
 
I agree with you on Tata Power and Reliance Energy. It takes 6-9 years to build the plant. So not worth that play. I am more negative on Rel. Energy after split. I dont think management has focus in business. Not coz they have multiple businesses. They have multiple activities other than business.
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 07/Aug/2006 at 1:35pm
Vivek,
Resource is one thing. Making name brand and setting distribution is other thing. If I understand what Mt everest has resource of water with minerals and without chemicals that can be sold in bottles. Not just water out of river that can be distributed through pipeline.
 
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