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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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Message Icon Topic: Tv18 - A value cum growth stock! Post Reply Post New Topic
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praveenmbd
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Quote praveenmbd Replybullet Topic: Tv18 - A value cum growth stock!
    Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 2:41pm
Originally posted by basant

To keep the excitement continuing on this thread I would present a valuation case for Tv18 and then we can talk about it:
 
TV18 Current market cap at Rs 837 = Rs 4600 crores
Less:
         Value of Web 18 (including 15% Rs 1200 crores
         stake in Yatra)
         10% stake in NW18 being held   Rs 310 crores
         in trust there
         17% stake in GBN                        Rs 333 crores         
         Cash  raised in recent QIP           Rs 200 crores
          Value of investments                  Rs 2043 crores
 
Remember all these investments are encashable or are portfolio investments.
 
Value of Business in Tv18 = (Rs 4600 crores -Rs 2043 crores)
                                            = Rs 2557 crores
                                            = Rs 464 per share Smile
 
 
 
Originally posted by deveshkayal

HSBC on TV18

Price target of Rs.1121
Internet business valued at $625m
CAGR of 52% over 2007-10
Subscription revenues,operating leverages key
 
 
HSBC has valued internet business at Rs 2500 crores. Thus value of investment will increase to Rs 3343 crores.
 
Value of BUSINESS in TV 18= (Rs 5100 crores- Rs 3343 crores)
                                           = Rs 1757 crores
                                           = Rs  311 per shareSmile
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 3:32pm
HSBC report is probably the most well researched report on TV18 that has ever come out from brokerage houses. Key takeaways -

- Ad revenues to grow at 27% CAGR for FY07E - FY10E.

- CAS, if implented on time as assumed by HSBC, would result in subscription revenue to grow by 69% for FY07E - FY10E.

- Web 18 has a number of properties. But eventually, they will have one single portal offering travel, jobs, finance etc. I believe this is very crucial for the future valuation of Web 18. Having one single portal will drastically reduce marketing costs and quickly ramp up the number of visitors to Web18.

- NDTV Profit is losing marketshare to CNBC TV-18/Awaaz. Viewership has dropped from 27% to 19%.

- HSBC has gone a bit ahead in time and is estimating revenues of Rs. 1,650 crores and net profit of Rs. 520 crores for Web 18 in FY18!

- For the entire TV18 group, it is estimating revenues of Rs. 760 crores and net profit of Rs. 231 crores for FY10.

There are also interesting snippets of information that might affect the other stocks that we track - Pantaloon and Dish TV.

Future Group plans to spend about Rs. 200 crores on advertising in FY08E


We expect large players with financial muscle, such as Reliance, to price set top boxes at a very steep discount in the future. We expect viewers to convert from the analogue cable system, without any government mandate on conversion, as DTH should offer better transmission quality and interactive features. We estimate 35m DTH
subscribers by FY12E









Edited by smartcat - 06/Jul/2007 at 3:38pm
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 3:46pm
HSBC report is probably the most well researched report on TV18 that has ever come out from brokerage houses
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Completely agree with you...
 
Btw,their report states TV18 holds 85% stake in Web18,while it should be 76%...
 
They have estimated Rs.10 per month after the CAS roll-out which is reasonable.
 
Also,GBN's stake of TV18 has been valued at current market cap...so see more upside to target price of TV18....
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 4:10pm
ALso they use that same newspaper analogy stating that buisness newspapers costs Rs 60 and CNBCTv18 can easily get Rs 10 per month. We have for over the last one year used this newspaper example on this forum to state the pricing power of Tv18!!
 
 
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 4:18pm
TED is quite ahead of analysts.Clap
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 4:35pm
TED is quite ahead of analysts
 
-----------------------------------------------
 
You know Devesh, there is lots of copy-paste happening by anonymous visitors.
 
Watch out for Basant jee's list of 20 books recommended for reading!
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kishanpv
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Quote kishanpv Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 6:13pm
Is it worth while to add tv18 at these levels ??
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2007 at 6:28pm
Yes, TED is ahead for sure on many aspects, compared to many analysts if not all.
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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