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barla
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Location: India
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Posts: 779
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   Posted: 21/Mar/2011 at 5:57pm |
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I feel on the basis of PE valuations that Sensex is slightly overvalued.
Now Ajit Dayal(there was a reference to this in another post. I cant find it) feels that in 15-18 months we can expect the sensex to cross 30000.
Ajit Dayal is one of the most respected advisors for long term financial FII investors in India. He has worked with Templeton himself.
Now he also does not rule out the sensex going down. He has also spotted an opportunity in Indian Hotels. Very interesting.
The link
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-03-19/news/29146248_1_indian-markets-tragedy-japanese-central-bank
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basant
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Posted: 21/Mar/2011 at 8:48pm |
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Ajit Dayal is abetter salesman for his Quantam Funds.
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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barla
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Posted: 21/Mar/2011 at 12:48pm |
very small fund. I think it is the smallest mutual fund. some 200 crores as assets. All his ventures for the indian retail investor has bombed. I do not know if you are aware, but he was the first person in India to start online share trading. Bombed again.
But his reputation with the long term foreing investors is top class. Especially with the pension funds.
Originally posted by basant
Ajit Dayal is abetter salesman for his Quantam Funds. |
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barla
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Location: India
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Posted: 23/Mar/2011 at 10:49pm |
Sensex PE at 19.77.
Every brokerage is being negative. Me thinks these people have started buying.
With aa 30% growth in advance tax payments. If there is an increase in profits of the Sensex this year by say 25%. We are looking at the PE going down a bit.
The wait is getting frustrating.
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barla
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Posted: 26/Mar/2011 at 1:08am |
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Sensex PE at 20.39.
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om2112
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Joined: 29/May/2010
Location: India
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Posted: 08/Apr/2011 at 11:09am |
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With Brent crude hitting $125 and high inflation & interest rates we should think seriously about index levels.For value investors these levels are creating nightmare and risk reward ratio is unfavorable.I think we get relief only when crude get corrected by 30-35 per.
Time to rebalance the portfolio and convert profits in to debt.
BUFFET comments on general market picture
My view of the general market level is that it is priced above intrinsic value. This view relates to blue-chip securities. This view, if accurate, carries with it the possibility of a substantial decline in all stock prices, both undervalued and otherwise. In any event I think the probability is very slight that current market levels will be thought of as cheap five years from now. Even a full-scale bear market, however, should not hurt the market value of our work-outs substantially.If the general market were to return to an undervalued status our capital might be employed exclusively in general issues and perhaps some borrowed money would be used in this operation at that time. Conversely, if the market should go considerably higher our policy will be to reduce our general issues as profits present themselves and increase the work-out portfolio.All of the above is not intended to imply that market analysis is foremost in my mind. Primary attention is given at all times to the detection of substantially undervalued securities.
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subu76
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Joined: 25/Feb/2008
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Posted: 08/Apr/2011 at 11:30am |
Originally posted by om2112
With Brent crude hitting $125 and high inflation & interest rates we should think seriously about index levels.For value investors these levels are creating nightmare and risk reward ratio is unfavorable.I think we get relief only when crude get corrected by 30-35 per.
Time to rebalance the portfolio and convert profits in to debt.
BUFFET comments on general market picture
My view of the general market level is that it is priced above intrinsic value. This view relates to blue-chip securities. This view, if accurate, carries with it the possibility of a substantial decline in all stock prices, both undervalued and otherwise. In any event I think the probability is very slight that current market levels will be thought of as cheap five years from now. Even a full-scale bear market, however, should not hurt the market value of our work-outs substantially.If the general market were to return to an undervalued status our capital might be employed exclusively in general issues and perhaps some borrowed money would be used in this operation at that time. Conversely, if the market should go considerably higher our policy will be to reduce our general issues as profits present themselves and increase the work-out portfolio.All of the above is not intended to imply that market analysis is foremost in my mind. Primary attention is given at all times to the detection of substantially undervalued securities.
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Hmm....
A quote made by WB in 1970s + your assesment of where the stock market is
right now
I initially thought this is something WB said very recently and was wondering why he'd call the market overvalued
Edited by subu76 - 08/Apr/2011 at 11:42am
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barla
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Posted: 08/Apr/2011 at 11:50am |
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The markets are now just entering the over valued zone. Historically 21 - 25 PE is overbought.
I mean even a property plays like Godrej Ind and Properties has shot up bu almost 20% recently when the real estate market is in the doldrums.
Heidelberg Cement mover up from a low of 32 to 48 in less than 4 weeks.
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