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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Magic of compounding -109 times in 10 years! Post Reply Post New Topic
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 10:08pm
I did not see anyone say that Ok let us do 40% and get to that figure of 100 times in say 15 years everytime
 
Interesting you mention that here. While us Indians fall over eachother to lock-in our money in PPF for 15 years, we don't look beyond a few years for equity investments.
 
As a dreamer myself, I like this toy - Magic of Compounding -
 
Enter your current portfolio size, approx monthly investments, percentage returns and number of years. Hit CALCULATE
 
I once saw AMOUNT coming to Rs. 1,000 crores.. hehehe.. Sleepy
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 10:34pm
I did not see anyone say that Ok let us do 40% and get to that figure of 100 times in say 15 years everytime.
************
Basant, You are right. We failed to take moral of the story. If you target 500 runs and end up with 350 its not bad at all and unlike cricket you dont lose here if somebody makes more than 350.
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 10:44pm
you dont lose here if somebody makes more than 350. 
 
I would feel pretty disappointed if Sensex makes more than 350 though.
 
Is it just me? I am always chasing that girl. I am satisfied only if my portfolio returns atleast 50% more than Sensex for that year.
 
The reason is - one can get sensex returns with zero risk and effort. I would like to measure the effort I put in, by comparing my returns with the benchmark.
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 11:10pm
Now I did not see anyone say that Ok let us do 40% and get to that figure of 100 times in say 15 years everytime we remain focused on "r" the rate of interest we are always ignoring n the number of years and P the initial capital.
 
----------------------------------------------------
 
Hey you've stumped the batsmen by throwing a slower 'doosra'! Haven't heard of any prolific spinner from Kolkata after Dilip Doshi !!
 
 
 


Edited by kulman - 29/May/2007 at 11:13pm
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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vivekkumar_in
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 11:29pm
On the face value  - I don't think there is anything wrong in aiming for 60% return for 10 yrs..

=> We have identified theme for the next 3 yrs and some core stocks with EPS growth rate of 60% or so..
=> Even if they do a 50% EPS growth , we have a high probability of our portfolio reflecting that
=> Some of them with additional kickers of demergers etc will only add and may be push the overall portfolio returns higher
=> Come next 2009/2010 or so all we have to identify similar core stocks that can do a EPS growth of 60% or so with certain predictability for next 3 yrs..
=> While 10 yrs may look long.. 3 yrs predictability is something we can all work at and have a decent conviction...

For many of us hard to digest the 60% for 10 yrs.... lets try to bite the pieces smaller and see if that is easier to digest...

& comparing/competing with sensex is what many try to do.. But you can only compare with Sensex on the hindsight... Can anyone preditc with reasonable predictability the return of sensex for next 3 yrs ? - NO...

We can do a decent analysis on a company with much better precision than the sensex..

More than that sky is not the limit for one's financial goal? We all should have a financial goal which you want to attain in n no of years... While it remains that no one complains if that is attained in n-1 or n-2 or n-3 yrs...

But your return that one should aim for should be based on this financial goal and not on the probable sensex return for next 10 yrs..


Edited by vivekkumar_in - 29/May/2007 at 11:33pm
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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kanagala
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Quote kanagala Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 1:57am
Sir,
Can you give us your CAGR estimates for some of the stocks we have discussed here (equity XI). What are the stocks do you think will give us 60% CAGR.




Edited by kanagala - 29/May/2007 at 9:36am
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drpatils
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Quote drpatils Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 8:05am
Considering limited no. of Indian population in share market at present  and also considering ever increasing desire to participate in share market by future geneartion, what Basant ji is saying is perfectly possible and will be achieved al least by some of us.Question is do u want to be in that list..Peace.Its not greed,its plain simple calculation supported by Logic and having faith in companies where we invest.
 
We all TEDDY'S want the same thing that Basant ji wants for us...As they say 100 m Race of Life never begins at same spot for everyone..for some it starts at 99m ,for some at -20 m, as long as we have desire to finish the cross line no one can stop us..sooner or later we all will be there...sooner the better! We are our worst enemies. These are my two cents.


Edited by drpatils - 30/May/2007 at 7:15pm
The journey of thousand mile begins with single step-Chinese Proverb
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 29/May/2007 at 10:09am

Basant Sir, in investing I beleive and again I must reiterate its entirely my personal opinion that you must leave certain things for the markets to make happen.....we cannot force things on market. Am not against your compounding logic, the only thing I am asking is does it happen that ways? Sure, its in everybody's ambit to dream big , thin big, plan big..... but in stocks execution will always be done by market. All i intended to say was to achieve the set target by making correct switches at times....by mixing aggression, moderation and defence, so that at no point we look fatigued to achieve your goal. Basant Sir, without getting into names, a person like you easily generate a 100 timer in 10 years.....and that too without risk in case you have met with the initial success....

Suppose, you made a 50-timer in 4 years.... now making a 100 timer is extremely easy.....you simply need a Zero Coupon Bond with a YTM of 12% p.a for 6 years and you will have a 100 timer at the end of 10 years. All, I intended to say was that sticking to 1 company for 100 times returns is somewhat dangerous......and when the goal can be achieved simply then one must try to reduce risk so that the ultimate goal be achieved.
 
As for myself,as you indicated, one may have have different approaches....I keep very very simple goals.... I really dont have wealth targets, for i dont like to devote time on what is not in my hand.... however, i have my cash flow targets, for in my opinion, its the liquidity which gives one an emotional strength to tide over difficult times. I dont need X crores of wealth with no money in my deposit account.
 
True, I am argumentative but want to see something emating from arguments. It may get heated, to which also I dont have any objection, however, intention must not be misinterpreted, for then it becomes a bad fight, a muddle which I have no desire to enter into. I didnt give the Infosys example to show down.... it was an illustration to show my point. As i mention again and again, i am a naive person with practically little or no experience, its simply that I have been plain and simply lucky. Just that I cant say anyone stupid because he or she missed out or lost because tomorrow any one of us may be the loser.I will always blame myself for my loss but every sucess I have, I will atribute it to grace of God....its just a way of keeping myself humble before the Markets. I have seen people traumatised by the markets, so I fear that Invisible Hand....
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