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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Message Icon Topic: Jammu & Kashmir bank - As good as the Place Post Reply Post New Topic
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 04/Jul/2010 at 10:33pm
Originally posted by vinvestor2010

I do not have numbers but if say 3 years ago Govt share of loans was 3O% and now it is 25%, that would be a good sign.
 
Advances to Government has gone down from roughly 30% to about 16% over the last 5 years.
 
Overall, the advances this year looks pretty balanced...except for corporate advances which is high since that constitues most of the loan book outside the state


Edited by subu76 - 04/Jul/2010 at 10:40pm
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 04/Jul/2010 at 10:42pm
BTW one unique feature about this company is that they don't seem to be smoothening out their numbers ......
 
Perhaps that is because it's a govt owned firm.
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 04/Jul/2010 at 2:46am
Must be a typo...in one of their Presentations I noticed that the state governement is investing $240 billion in power over the next 4 years....clearly seems impossible
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 7:41pm
This one seems to be an extremely unpopular stock.
 
Assuming someone bought this stock 5 years back and he checked the price today....he'd see that the price has not budged at all despite the company earning a lot more both in terms of quantity and quality, management being extremely adept and focused on the long term and the strength of the company only increasing every year. Looking at the CASA, NIM, Cost/revenue, NPA etc it seems to be a real delight.
 
The PE and P/BV of the company has been on a continuous slide down.
 
The versions the management came out with on various occassaions are 1. The kashmir name and 2. the ownership pattern.
 
It's true.....The Kashmir name is a big turn off...the state has been in some sort of boil ever since independence.


Edited by subu76 - 06/Jul/2010 at 8:10pm
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 8:28pm
Originally posted by subu76

This one seems to be an extremely unpopular stock.


I think a lot has to do with the name Jammu and Kashmir as you mentioned in the post.

Have u compared it to other PSU banks in terms of P/BV or P/e or whatever other parameters are applicable to banks? Just curious.

regards
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 8:44pm
Originally posted by subu76

This one seems to be an extremely unpopular stock.
 

Assuming someone bought this stock 5 years back and he checked the price today....he'd see that the price has not budged at all despite the company earning a lot more both in terms of quantity and quality, management being extremely adept and focused on the long term and the strength of the company only increasing every year. Looking at the CASA, NIM, Cost/revenue, NPA etc it seems to be a real delight.

 

The PE and P/BV of the company has been on a continuous slide down.

 

The versions the management came out with on various occassaions are 1. The kashmir name and 2. the ownership pattern.

 

It's true.....The Kashmir name is a big turn off...the state has been in some sort of boil ever since independence.


Subuji,

Why do you think things will change now in terms of valuation?Any triggers you foresee?
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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nikhil090
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Quote nikhil090 Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 8:57pm
Since you have already made your decision, please do not think otherwise, but have a look at KVB or Andhra Bank/Indian Bank.
 
KVB is available at roughly similar valuation but it is a private bank. Their ROE/ROA are probably better.
 
In PSB, Andhra bank or Indian bank are cheaper and may not have any "put-offs"
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 06/Jul/2010 at 1:08am
I need to prepare more for the comparitive studies. So far i've internalized a lot of stuff on J&K. I'll get back.
 
Hey Nikhil, Thank you for posting on KVB. I've been extremely busy with reading up all the material about J&K. I'll get back after reading more on KVB and then discuss more with you.
 
Hitesh, I'm unable to find a place to have the consolidated numbers. I carried out comparisons with HDFC, SBI, Axis, Yes, ICICI etc which i saw in one of the Outlook Money articles. Could you please suggest a source?
 
Prabhakar, nahin yaar...no visible triggers......but here is what i thought....that after 10 years J&K should have 4 times the current earnings... It's hard to see it's dominance being easily dented....Also after 10 years the value of it's Metlife stake will be about 2000 cr (roughly half it's current market cap) Metlife is contractually committed to buy back it's stake at 15% CAGR. So this seems like an easy 4x stock for me if i hold it for about 10 years.......given that at a 7-8 PE it's hard to see it going down significantly....
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