Joined: 18/Mar/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 115
Posted: 31/Jul/2011 at 10:06am
There are a lot of doubting Thomases who think the US will not be able to reach an agreement about increasing the Govt's debt ceiling.
The Republicans, who are bargaining hard, also have taken a tough stand on this.
But I feel, they as well as the Democrats will not have the guts to push the world economy to another catastrophe which will certainly come about if the US govt. defaults. The Republicans will be surely blamed for it. I don't think they will be happy at the prospect.
Therefore, after the tough posturing, 'AALL IS WELL' will be sung.
S&P downgrade of US is a Black Swan event and will probably have far reaching effect on the financial markets...
As pointed out by Taleb,we are constantly trying to fit
random events around us into a compelling narrative.By deluding ourselves with such make-believe theories,we are
leaving ourselves utterly exposed to Black Swan---
Timely article by Saurabh Mukherjea---behavioural finance-
it is not the exact rating change that is disastrous but the "downgrade" for THE US DOLLAR - the ultimate safe haven - which will lead to more people reassessing their position..
Joined: 25/Jun/2011
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 518
Posted: 27/Oct/2011 at 10:52pm
I was reading KB's book, It happened in India.
He has mentioned that FIIs were first to identify Pantaloon retail as they had seen success of retail in their countries. Indian's were late in getting onto that one.
Seeing recent developments, Indians were able to identify Jubiliant foodworks. It was a good 5 bagger for many of them.
What could be other businesses that are well established worldwide but are in nascent stage in India?
If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored.
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