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Identifying Multibaggers
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xbox
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2007 at 9:47am
Isn't this trying to TIME THE MARKET ?
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Correct. We all know that timing the market is impossible. So I follow these ...
Prepare with some cash (not from stocks) and when all mugerilals say sell, sell, start deploying 1/10 at a time. I believe in not selling stocks in fall. Having said that, we all are learning.


Edited by vipul - 26/Mar/2007 at 5:33am
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2007 at 4:25pm
Isn't this trying to TIME THE MARKET ?
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Modifying Shakesphere's words..."To buy or not to buy, that is the question"
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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Quote prosperity Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2007 at 7:21pm
Originally posted by vipul

and when all mugerilals say buy, buy, start deploying 1/10 at a time.
 
If you decide to buy 1/X at a time, where X = 10,
 
Q1) How do you decide value of X ? How do you arrive at X = 10 ?
 
Q2) Don't you fear that though next 2-3 times - your price might be cheaper than today and then you would buy 4 lots of 1/10 at lower prices ...  but then after 4th lot buying, rebound might be sharper and may take prices much much above than even today and hence you end up spending remaining 6 lots of 1/10 at prices higher than today... 
 
So your average price might work to be more than today's prices... even though prices went below and then came up !!
 
And more than that ... it brings anxiety and frustration 
 
For me, one thing works better - i decide what price would make me feel happy and does not look unrealistic ... i keep 100% money (i.e. X = 1 for me) at that limit price ... my limit can come in 1 day or 20 days or never ... but i don't feel i am playing hide and seek with Mr. Market !!
 
As buffet says, first decide the stock and then decide a reasonable price that you should be buying it at .. and leave all the other details like whether/when the trade gets executed to Mr. MARKET !!
 


Edited by prosperity - 26/Mar/2007 at 7:44pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2007 at 10:57pm
Prosperity at his best: Mixing emotion with mathematics.Generally it is better to buy in one or two or at most 3 lots. I never look for such price points because I am always more then 100% (my capital + bank finance)investedCool
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 26/Mar/2007 at 5:49am
and when all mugerilals say buy, buy, start deploying 1/10 at a time.
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Sorry!!, It was typo. Offcourse it was .."and when all mugerilals say sell, sell, start deploying 1/10 at a time".
In my case 1/X is 5% of existing book. It is kind of SIP, which I am trying to do myself. 100% Timing of market is impossible. I am aiming for 30-40% of timing. When markets were down 400 points, I put one part. This way not only I am hedging my old book (against fall) but deploying fresh commitment at reasonable levels. Personally I think 3200 nifty is quite reachable but in case it does not, such SIPs will help me.
There is no mathematics here also there is no full proof logic. All strategies are correct and wrong in markets. When I am sure about some stock I buy like no tomorrow. I picked yes bank in couple of weeks only, it is huge 46% of my existing book. This time I am putting money in MFs, so trying to take advantage of steep fall of a day (if any).
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Apr/2007 at 6:49pm
This is a good presentation on howsmall caps bring  in multibaggers. It is actually a  sales pitch by a MF which came out with an NFO but makes for some very interesting documented reading:
 
 
 
Now for the sad part this is the portfolio of the fund: Isn't there is an indication of very low knowledge to application ratio? That is a worry when these guys are on sales pitch they say different things and when they actually go in to invest they behave like  Zebras
 
 
 
 
 


Edited by basant - 28/Apr/2007 at 6:58pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote Rinku Replybullet Posted: 28/Apr/2007 at 12:40pm
I put salary money in stocks?Is it possible to make money just from stocks in the begineening of your work life like buffet?And if you are long term investor where you will get money to invest in new ideas?
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Quote us121 Replybullet Posted: 28/Apr/2007 at 1:03am

Rinkuji,

 
Congrates you have crossed 100 posts.
 
My personal view is:
 
1. unless we are confident enough in our ability/ judgement/ knowledge about stocks and particlulary when we are taking it up as an additional acitivity along with our salary earning, one need to work on asset allocation seriously understanding the risk associated with the stock market and also the likely price we may have to pay for our lack of expertise.
2. i personally do not agree to put any money in share which is borrowed or which is likely to be required in next 3 years of time
3. having certain investments of risk free/ tax free nature like ppf, insurance is must.
4. if one is likely to use the house for own purpose, buying decent property (along with benefit of staying and enjoying it) is minimum real estate investment i would like to go for.
5. bying any depreciating assets like car etc (u may read Basantji's post some where of he using scooter and avoiding investment on depreciating asset like car) must be avoided or to be minimised
6. Gold etc required for minimum social reasons/obligations should be purchased.
7. health insurance is must if not covered by organisation
8. no purchase on credits/ credit cards and all required purchases based on cash on hand.
9. some amount to be available for immergency fall back.
 
After allocating all these, i would put rest of my salary in stocks.
 
Of course, this is my personal view, different ppl will have different perspective to the same issue.
ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top
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