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basant
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Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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   Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 6:47pm |
Originally posted by deveshkayal
Originally posted by vip1
ICICI direct
PICK OF THE WEEK :
NW18 price 500 Target 600 in 3-6 months. |
I had sent an email to Ankit Kedia,media analyst at ICICI Direct on 6th June to have a look at Network18 explaining him the structure.I am happy that he looked at it and brought a report on Network18 today.
I was fed up why the hell was NW18 not moving...Now I can sleep with peace! |
Good job Devesh. All of us at TED are helping the analyst community discover hidden value of stocks that we have loaded on long before them. In any case this ICICI report is again wrong for Network18's holding in Tv18 and it assumes a purchase of GBN shareholding at a random price.
Anyway like the SSKI report it has got the final answer right and that is what matters.
Edited by basant - 22/Jun/2007 at 8:13pm
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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deveshkayal
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Joined: 04/Sep/2006
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Posts: 3903
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Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 6:53pm |
Anyway like the SSKI report it has got the final answer right and that is what matters
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Exactly.
ICICI Direct have taken 10% holding company discount.The house is divided.Also the value of Studio18 and HSN is 200crs..Is it fair? I think so.
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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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basant
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Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 8:11pm |
Originally posted by drpatils
A substantial part of Network 18 value comes from its two subsidiaries – TV18 India and GBN – while the rest from its two businesses of home shopping and film production and distribution. Based on the valuation of its two subsidiaries and valuing its operational business at Rs 200 crore, we value Network18 at Rs 600 per share. We rate the stock an outperformer with an upside potential of 20% from the current price of Rs 500 in next 3-6 months.
|
(Rs crore) |
Stake |
Value |
Residual Value |
|
TV18 India |
51% |
4800 |
2448 |
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Global Broadcasting News |
56.90% |
2376 |
1352 |
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Studio18 & HSN |
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200 |
200 |
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EV |
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|
4000 |
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Holding Company discount |
10% |
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3600 |
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No. of shares (Fully Diluted) |
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|
6 |
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Value per share (Rs) |
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600 |
Technical Outlook
On the charts, the stock gave strong breakout at Rs 330 and rallied to Rs 600. Thereafter, it consolidated till Rs 450 where it found good support and bounced back. Short-term indicators like RSI have made a bullish Crossover. Also, the short term and medium term term averages have made a bullish crossover. The short term resistance for the scrip is at Rs 600 and thereafter Rs 636. |
Studio 18's library has been valued at around Rs 24 crores that emans HSN is valued at only Rs 176 crores. Seems too low. ALso this target is the exrights price (diluted equity shown at 6 crore shares) so the cum rights price should be closer to Rs 750.Not sure why these guys come up with exrights price when the stock is still cum rights.
But that should not matter 
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omshivaya
Senior Member
Joined: 06/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 5966
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Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 9:12pm |
Good job Devesh ji. Cheers TEDdies!!!
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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kanagala
Senior Member
Joined: 31/Mar/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1229
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Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 11:13pm |
Originally posted by basant
Good job Devesh. All of us at TED are helping the analyst community discover hidden value of stocks that we have loaded on long before them. In any case this ICICI report is again wrong for Network18's holding in Tv18 and it assumes a purchase of GBN shareholding at a random price.
Anyway like the SSKI report it has got the final answer right and that is what matters. |
I would have accumulated more once i get my next pay check. In between, do you guys really think, we need to update analysts about TED stocks.
Edited by kanagala - 22/Jun/2007 at 11:17pm
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basant
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Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 22/Jun/2007 at 12:25pm |
Originally posted by kanagala
Originally posted by basant
Good job Devesh. All of us at TED are helping the analyst community discover hidden value of stocks that we have loaded on long before them. In any case this ICICI report is again wrong for Network18's holding in Tv18 and it assumes a purchase of GBN shareholding at a random price.
Anyway like the SSKI report it has got the final answer right and that is what matters. |
I would have accumulated more once i get my next pay check. In between, do you guys really think, we need to update analysts about TED stocks.
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Why not?But two things that should be kept in mind are:
a) these should be in the form of information only where the underlying value actually exists.
b) there should be a disclosure at the bottom of the mail/report
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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praveenmbd
Senior Member
Joined: 19/Jan/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 431
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Posted: 23/Jun/2007 at 1:50pm |
Originally posted by basant
Originally posted by drpatils
A substantial part of Network 18 value comes from its two subsidiaries – TV18 India and GBN – while the rest from its two businesses of home shopping and film production and distribution. Based on the valuation of its two subsidiaries and valuing its operational business at Rs 200 crore, we value Network18 at Rs 600 per share. We rate the stock an outperformer with an upside potential of 20% from the current price of Rs 500 in next 3-6 months.
|
(Rs crore) |
Stake |
Value |
Residual Value |
|
TV18 India |
51% |
4800 |
2448 |
|
Global Broadcasting News |
56.90% |
2376 |
1352 |
|
Studio18 & HSN |
|
200 |
200 |
|
EV |
|
|
4000 |
|
Holding Company discount |
10% |
|
3600 |
|
No. of shares (Fully Diluted) |
|
|
6 |
|
Value per share (Rs) |
|
|
600 |
Technical Outlook
On the charts, the stock gave strong breakout at Rs 330 and rallied to Rs 600. Thereafter, it consolidated till Rs 450 where it found good support and bounced back. Short-term indicators like RSI have made a bullish Crossover. Also, the short term and medium term term averages have made a bullish crossover. The short term resistance for the scrip is at Rs 600 and thereafter Rs 636. |
Studio 18's library has been valued at around Rs 24 crores that emans HSN is valued at only Rs 176 crores. Seems too low. ALso this target is the exrights price (diluted equity shown at 6 crore shares) so the cum rights price should be closer to Rs 750.Not sure why these guys come up with exrights price when the stock is still cum rights.
But that should not matter |
Basant ji, do you have any idea how much equity will be diluted on a/c of ESOPS?
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basant
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Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 23/Jun/2007 at 2:01pm |
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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