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Message Icon Topic: ICICI Bank vs. HDFC Bank. Post Reply Post New Topic
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 7:03am
dear basant yu say to be careful of interest rate sensitive industries now banking is highly int rate sensitive so do yu avoid making any investments in hdfc bank  or yesbank or icici at this juncture or is it a long term oppurtunity also pantaloon has a large capex  plan will increasing int rates put pressure on its margins
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 28/Feb/2007 at 9:21am
That is interesting. HDFC Bank has a 12 year operating history so those guys are never streched and would continue to exist and deliver. ICICI Bank could be in some temporary trouble since their borrowing and lending are a bit in mismatch but for all these private sector retail banks the new wave of incremental growth will come from fee based services like selling financial products etc. Most of them are already into it and this business does not need any capex - it is a servioce model.
 
Your assesement on Pantaloon Retail is right but the sheer pace of growth should take things in stride. Also from Fy 09 the other incidental businesses at Pantaloon like Media, AMC, Mall management etc should be adding significantly to the bottomline. So inspite of higher interst rate and the additional levy of service tax on commercial rental (which is cenvatable - adjustable with whatever these guys pay as service tax already) I would still back Pantaloon Retail because this service tax aspect affects the whole industry which is growing at 35% CAGR not just a particular company.
 
But for the short term Mr. Market is at full liberty to act the way it wants to.
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s_praharaj
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Quote s_praharaj Replybullet Posted: 01/Mar/2007 at 11:10pm
The interest rate hike will definitely affect the earnings of the Bank. But more than that it will affect the companies, those are having high debt. Banks to a great extent will pass on the increase in deposit rate to the borrowers by increasing the interest rate on loans. But the companies which are having more debts has to pay it from their earnings. So they will be affected.
 
I am already seeing big companies enquiring for availing loans at a higher rate, which they were refusing earlier.
 
So Basant's view of focussing on low debt or zero debt companies will definitely yield better returns.
Shashi Praharaj
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 1:17pm
MOTILAL OSWAL has upgraded its rating on HDFC BANK to buy from neutral saying that the bank was poised to gain in arising interest rate senario.with deposit costs on the rise they beleive that banks with strong retail franchise ,higher proportion ofCASA DEPOSITSand thus lower cost of funds would be best placed. hdfc bank emerges as our preferred bank on all these fronts as cost of funds remain relatively insulated as more than half of its deposits are contacted at fixed rates-casa deposits of 2.5-2.8%...mr banker s praharaj sir are you and basant sir, inaccordance with this view bcos i feel the stock iscoming towards attractive terrtory where one can invest in this bank
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 1:41pm

I have always been a very aggressive proponent of the HDFC Bank stock. Declines like these give opportunity to the long term buyer to get in.

 
Did the report mention about fee based income going up. ALso they are slated to do an equity offering later this year.Nothing confirmed on this yet.
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 1:46pm
no the report does not mention bout fee based income but when they say retail franchise i suppose they include fee based under that banner yes i have heard aditya puri saying so some really big fiis will be queing up for that
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Quote s_praharaj Replybullet Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 10:42pm
Fee Based Income is around 25% of total Income for HDFC bank. The fee based Income is growing at 22% per year for HDFC Bank. The non-Intt Income is growing at 26%. The increase would have been more, but due to a loss of 21.1 crore on trasury operations, the growth is shown at 26%.
 
I have analysed HDFC Bank , with ICICI Bank, UTI Bank, Kotak Bank and Yes Bank. Though the growth rate in some areas are a shade higher in icici Bank than HDFC Bank, still when important parameters such as net NPA, NIM, % of casa to tot deposit, Capital Adequacy Ratio etc, are considered ,HDFC Bank scores better than ICICI Bank. For last 5 years it shows a more than 20% CAGR growth in business, Net profit, Net Intt Income, Other Income etc. HDFC Bank has the highest Net Intt Margin of 4.3% in the Industry. Its net NPA at at 0.4% is the lowest in the Industry. Its cost of fund at 3.8% also is the lowest in the Industry.
 
The only negative with HDFC Bank is that they have not opened any Branch in last nine months. Imagine a Bank giving a growth of almost 30% in almost all parameters without opening a single branch, is quite praiseworthy. I read somewhere that they applied to RBI for licenses of 100 Branches to be opened next fiscal.
 
In a price band of 900-950, I feel it is an opportunity to enter the stock.
Shashi Praharaj
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Mar/2007 at 8:36am
Maybe that equity dilution is slated to happen when they get the RBI approval of opening over 100 branches. YOur small write ups make things look very easy. Thank you Sir.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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