How Viceroy Hotel can be multibagger in 2012-13?
Equity is 42.41 Crore Rs. So total number of Shares are 4.24 Crore.
2.9 Crore Shares (Approx 70% of Total Equity) are issued against 270 Crore Rs. So at the price is 93 Rs./Share. They are issued to Promoter, ICGQ, RJ, HSBC and Sonata Investments (Anil Ambani)
These 5 guys have subscribed at the price of 90 from 2005 to 2007 so they must have some high target price
Now Revenue Calculation from Hotel segment is as below
City |
Hotel Name |
|
Rooms |
80 % Occupancy |
Avg. Room Rate |
Revenue (Cr.) |
Hyderabad |
J W Marriott |
Operational |
297 |
237.6 |
12,000 |
104 |
Hyderabad |
Hotel Minerva |
Operational |
58 |
46.4 |
7,000 |
12 |
Chennai |
J W Marriott |
Oct-09 |
387 |
309.6 |
11,000 |
124 |
Bangalore |
Renaissance |
Oct-09 |
250 |
200 |
15,000 |
110 |
Hyderabad |
Courtyard Marriott |
Apr-09 |
200 |
160 |
10,000 |
58 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
408 |
* Average Room Rate is as per September 2008 (Easily you can add 10% rise per year)
* New Hotel of Chennai & Bangalore will be landmark in the city
* Marriott Brand has always high occupancy rate & premium customers
* India has 1.4 Lakh Rooms in Premium Category, USA has more than 40 Lakh & Shanghai alone has more than 1.5 Lakh Rooms in Premium Category
F&B Business (Minerva, Blue Fox, Waterfront, Eat Street and most importantly BreadTalk ) will contribute more than 100 Crore from 2012-13
So Total Revenue is 500 Cr + in 2012-13
Top 7 Hotel Companies have
NPM 30 to 35% in Mar-08 |
So Net Profit is |
200 Cr. |
NPM 18 to 22% in Dec-08 |
So Net Profit is |
121 Cr. |
So as per Equity of 42.40 Crore
EPS at 33% NPM |
is 47.33 Rs. |
EPS at 20% NPM |
is 28.69 Rs. |
Now,
|
Price Matrix as per PE & EPS |
|
PE |
EPS 33% |
EPS 20% |
Bull Market PE |
30 |
1420 |
861 |
Bear Market PE |
20 |
947 |
574 |
Current PE
(Crash Market) |
10 |
473 |
287 |
|
|
Best Case |
Worst Case |
Now Add RJ & Ambani Factor and Calculate Price Target
From Valuation Point of View:
MKT CAP: 80 Cr., Debt: 480 Cr. So Enterprise Value is 560 Cr. Rs.
Net Asset: 350 Cr. & C.W.P.: 280 Cr. So Asst is more than 630 Cr. Rs. Can anyone calculate true value of these properties?
Total 1100 Rooms at the EV of 560 Cr. So each room is available at less than 50Lakh Rs.
That’s it.
Please point out some points if I have forgotten and let’s help each other to create wealth.